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Headlines
(Global Economy) Italy's credit rating was cut by S&P on concerns of weakening economic growth (Indian Economy) IMF expects India's economic growth rate to moderate to 7.50-7.75% (Economic Calendar) (Global and Domestic Stock Markets) (Derivative Analysis) Nifty Mar Futures closed at 4870.70 (Technical Analysis) Nifty resistance at at 4960-5110 and supports at 4710-4670 (Weekly Recommendations) LT AND BOMDYEING (Sector & Company Highlights) (MF Industry update)
Headline Inflation by WPI (%) (August 2011) Annualize d Rate (curre nt) Headline Inflation (WPI) 9.78 Internals Primary Products Fue l Powe r and Lubricants Manufacture d Goods
Source: CCIL
INR Exchange Rate (As on September 23, 2011) Current 1 Week USD GBP Euro Ye n 49.67 76.51 66.98 65.10 47.47 74.96 65.79 61.81 Change Weekly 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.05 1 Year 46.37 71.84 60.17 54.65 Change annual 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.19
8.36 8.24
Economic Calendar
India Date Eve nt Pe riod 17-Sep 17-Sep 17-Sep Prior 8.8% 14.0% 12.2% 29-Sep Food Articles WPI YoY 29-Sep Fue l Power Article s WPI YoY 29-Sep Primary Article s WPI YoY
US Date Eve nt Pe riod AUG JUL SEP 23-Sep 2Q T 2Q T 24-Sep Prior 298K -4.5% 44.5 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 26-Sep Ne t Home Sale s 27-Sep S&P /CS Composite -20 YoY 27-Sep Consume r Confide nce 28-Sep MBA Mortgage Applications 29-Sep GDP QoQ(Annualized) 29-Sep Pe rsonal Consumption 29-Sep Initial Jobless Claims
Outlook
The overall environment remains volatile. Commodities will clearly remain under pressure. With flows turning negative, pressure will be on sectors with larger FII holding from a short term perspective. With commodities, currency all coming under pressure, the markets are entering near panic mode internationally as well as locally. Governments will need to act together to
Weekly Losers (BSE 100) IVCRCL SHRIRAM TRANSPO 36.8 603.9 -15.0% -10.4%
bring clarity over the current volatile situation. G20 will need to act and act fast. We should see some solutions coming through by October end but till clarity emerges, situation will be volatile. Value investors can look to invest in PSU banks, infrastructure, and auto from a long term perspective.
Weekly Turnover (in INR Bn) BSE NSE CASH NSE F&O Institutional Activity in INR Bn (Weekly) Institutions FII DIIs Net Inflow -21.9 11.4 128.4 512.8 7338.6
Market Snapshot
Nifty September Futures closed at 4870.7 (Premium of 2.95 points over the Nifty spot) Open interest Nifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 Sept): 23.70 mn. Open interest BankNifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 Sept): 2.04 mn. India VIX for the week ended at 35.16, up 6.71 from previous weeks close (28.45). In the week VIX touched low of 25.99 and high of 37.55. Weekly Open Interest Analysis (Nifty Option)
OI
6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 -
4 70 0
4 80 0
5 00 0
5 10 0
5 20 0
5 40 0
5 50 0
45 0 0
46 0 0
49 0 0
53 0 0
Across all expiries, open interest is highest at 5000, 5100 & 5200 call options, while open interest in the put options is highest at 4800, 4700 & 4600 strike prices, suggesting 4700-5100 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short term.
Strike
Sector Wise OI Change: The Sectors that witnessed positive OI change are BANK, PHARMA, CAPITAL GOODS, CEMENT while AUTO and IT saw decrease in OI
OI-Cha nge
0 (1,000,000) (2,000,000)
% Change - Price Cash Future 5.17 4.65 3.52 2.29 3.31 6.01 5.81 3.45 3.25 3.23
%Change - Volume % Change Cash Future in OI 114.09 -67.65 511.81 -69.13 -50.83 496.49 -74.50 292.81 23.26 -43.46 15.33 -2.62 -12.22 -11.85 -18.44
Strike
Cement CapitalGoods IT
S e c tor s
% Change in OI
Nifty PC Ratio
1.3 1.2 1.1
PCR
0.6
Date
Top 10 Volume Gainers SCRIPS % Change in F&O % Change Volumes Price Open Interest (Delivery Based) RUCHISOYA 5.2% 15.3 112.3% MCLEODRUSS -1.8% 0.9 335.7% DCHL 3.2% -1.0 134.1% BEL -1.4% 22.1 200.9% OFSS 3.5% -12.2 1183.9% ADANIPOWER -2.4% 9.7 -48.2% TATACOMM -6.0% 14.0 417.4% ABIRLANUVO -1.9% 3.4 -57.6% JINDALSWHL -6.2% 0.0 42.5% MPHASIS -3.7% -3.2 -88.3%
(Source: Iris)
Conclusion
Last week Nifty shut on a negative note @ 4867.75 and down by 216.50 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bearish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to negative sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 5068.40 and made a high of 5168.40 and made a low of 4829.60 then finally closed sideways to negative at 4867.75. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signaling that selling pressure at resistance levels are possible short-term. Nifty closed above the 50 day moving average (5194) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to negative. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move higher especially if resistance levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 4700-5100. The next area of resistance is around at 4960-5110. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 4710-4670 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4825 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 4960-5110 and supports at 4710-4670. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 16540-16995 and supports at 15700-15550. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9600-9800 and supports at 9050-8850.
Bombay Dyeing & Mfg Company Ltd LTP 355.50 View: Positive
Oscillators Analysis: Stochastics and RSI are highly over sold territory and positive crossover from lower levels on weekly chart reading, MACD has neutral zone on daily chart, which indicates positive sentiment in stock momentum. Pattern Analysis: A clear double bottom formation in weekly chart and trend line resistance at 365, which indicates stock upside, is a confirmation of a trend in that direction with volume support. Technical Analysis: On Weekly chart BOMDYEING closed above 20 week moving average at 343, which is good support zone with decent volume support, which indicates positive sentiment in short term trading and strong buying pressure initially above resistance zone at Rs.365, we expect the momentum to continue till next resistance at 388-414 on the upside targets. And any genuine correction should see in stock price around supports at 344, which should be used as a buying opportunity for the potential target 388-414. We recommended the stock in the range of 345-340 with stop loss below at 330 (on closing basis) for a target of Rs. 375-390.
Pharma
Promoters of Elder Pharmaceuticals have pledged 1 mn more shares of the company, taking the quantum of such shares of the firm to 9.4%. Semit Pharmaceuticals Chemicals Pvt Ltd, a part of the promoter group has pledged 1 mn shares of the company on September 19, 2011. Post the latest transaction, the total number of pledged shares stood at 1.94 mn, aggregating 9.46% stake in the company. Indias leading lobby group of drug makers has asked the government to allow foreign direct investment in the sector, less than a year after it demanded curbs on increasing takeovers of domestic companies by global giants.
IT
HCL inks 5-yr software deal with Deutsche Bank to provide application support solutions Subex Ltd, a leading global provider of business support systems for communications service providers, today announced the signing of an Asset Purchase Agreement with NetCracker for sale of its activation business.
Power
GVK Power has agreed to acquire Australias Hancock Coal for $1.26 billion, plans to invest $10 bn more. The deal, which includes acquiring majority holding in coal resources and railway line and port infrastructure projects of Hancock Coal, will offer option for long term coal supply contracts for the purchase of up to 20 mn tonne every year. This can support around 7,500 megawatts of power generating capacity. NTPC to take power generation capacity to 36k MW by March. The company is working on projects of about 40,000 MW at present. Projects with capacity of over 14,000 MW are under various stages of implementation PFC gets RBI nod for $1 bn overseas debt issue. Debt will be raised via offshore medium-term note borrowing, which will mark PFCs debut in the international bond market. The borrowing will be utilized for funding the power projects, including ultra mega power projects, financed by the company.
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21-Sep
20-Sep
19-Sep
-5 0
Debt
10
Equity
15
20
-5
10
Weekly Activity
Date Mutual Fund Activity 21-Se p-11 20-Se p-11 19-Se p-11 FII Activity 23-Se p-11 22-Se p-11 21-Se p-11 20-Se p-11 19-Se p-11
Source: Accord Fintech
Equity (INR in Bn) Purchase 6.55 3.49 2.47 Sales 4.39 4.58 3.26 Net Purchase /Sales 2.16 -1.09 -0.79 Purchase 29.38 33.24 32.65
Debt (INR in Bn) Sales 13.05 23.31 29.07 Net Purchase /Sales 16.33 9.93 3.58
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16-S ep 26-S ep
23-S ep 26-S ep
Close ended
apprec iation by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market sec urities. The S c heme will invest only in suc h sec urities whic h mature on or before the date of maturity of the S c heme. To seek to generate regular returns by investing in a portfolio of fixed inc ome sec urities/debt
19-S ep 26-S ep
Close ended
instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the Plans under the S c heme. However, there c an be no assuranc e that the investment objec tive of the Plans under the S c heme will be realized.
Crisil Composite Religare FMP - IX E(G) Close ended To generate inc ome by investing in a portfolio of Mr. Nitish S ikand debt and money market instruments maturing on or before the date of maturity of the S c heme. Bond Fund Index , Crisil Liquid Fund Index , Crisil S hort-Term Bond Fund Index To seek to generate regular returns and growth of c apital by investing in a diversified portfolio of Reliance FHF-XX 6(G) 22-S ep 26-S ep Close ended Mr. Amit Tripathi Central and S tate Government sec urities and Other Crisil S hort-Term fixed inc ome/ debt sec urities maturing on or before the date of maturity of the sc heme with the objec tive of limiting interest rate volatility. To provide regular inc ome, liquidity and returns to the investors through investments in a portfolio SBI DFS-90D-49(G) 23-S ep 26-S ep Close ended Mr. Rajeev Radhakrishnan c omprising of debt instruments suc h as Crisil Liquid Fund Index Government S ec urities, PS U & Corporate Bonds and Money Market Instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the sc heme. To seek to generate regular returns and growth of c apital by investing in a diversified portfolio of Reliance FHF-XX 7(G) 23-S ep 27-S ep Close ended Mr. Amit Tripathi Central and S tate Government sec urities and Other Crisil S hort-Term fixed inc ome/ debt sec urities maturing on or before the date of maturity of the sc heme with the objec tive of limiting interestrate volatility. Bond Fund Index Bond Fund Index
16-S ep 26-S ep
12
14-S ep 28-S ep
JM FMF-XX-D(G)
15-S ep 28-S ep
Close ended
20-S ep 30-S ep
20-S ep
4-Oc t
c orresponds
Goldlinked fund(s) or S c hemes. To seek to protect c apital by investing a portion of the portfolio in good quality debt sec urities & money market instruments and also to provide
ICICI P ru CP O-IV36M-(G)
22-S ep
5-Oc t
Close ended
c apital apprec iation by investing the balance in equity and equity related securities. The securities would mature on or before the maturity of the Plan under the S cheme. However, there can be no assurance that the investment objec tive of the Plan under the S cheme will be realized.
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Absolute Return (In %) 1 Week 1 Month -3.18 -2.89 -2.53 -2.79 -3.18 -3.69 -0.28 -0.17 -0.40 -1.66 -1.51 -2.27 -0.43 -0.57 -1.10 -0.06 -1.38 -1.59 0.19 0.32 -0.14 -0.91 -0.43 -0.62 1 Year -11.54 -13.61 -14.47 -11.70 -16.46 -13.43 3.47 1.69 1.83 -6.92 -0.55 -7.16
CAGR (In %) Since Inception 28.83 20.28 22.85 22.89 21.43 29.44 9.55 10.69 11.43 18.60 16.66 16.00
(23 Sep 11) 95.35 32.35 43.16 196.90 186.28 90.73 26.89 21.90 23.13 203.01 54.77 78.91
BETA 0.70 0.80 0.70 0.78 0.88 0.77 0.09 0.31 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.31
ALPHA 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.01 -0.04
Expense Ratio 1.82 1.84 1.92 1.83 1.78 1.84 2.09 1.54 1.52 1.80 2.11 2.34
(In %)
(23 Sep 11) 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year Since Inception 17.57 16.35 16.58 17.13 32.02 34.00 11.00 11.48 17.55 13.04 16.73 15.31 21.36 1441.59 2331.71 0.19 0.16 0.16 0.32 0.15 0.41 0.17 0.14 0.09 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.77 0.66 0.67 0.49 0.19 0.41 0.74 0.67 0.61 0.72 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.68 8.51 7.92 6.85 7.79 5.09 3.93 9.02 7.61 8.76 8.35 8.52 8.65 8.26 8.50 7.86 7.02 6.05 6.98 8.01 9.20 10.75 8.61 7.06 7.30 6.48 7.29 6.58 6.88 6.69
YTM
Average Days
Modified Expense Ratio 0.14 0.80 0.60 0.79 2.13 1.24 0.65 1.35 0.59 0.65 0.57 0.25 0.41 0.20 0.65 Days 54.75 222.65 25.20 912.50 1744.70 1668.05 69.35 262.80 0.00 43.80 29.20 0.00 23.00 35.82 0.00
Maturity In Duration in 54.75 244.55 26.40 1003.75 2679.10 2489.30 76.65 372.30 938.05 47.45 29.20 60.90 25.00 38.34 30.00
9.00 0.00 0.00 9.75 9.43 0.00 9.79 0.00 9.29 9.30 9.07 0.00 0.00 8.55
8.02 10.06
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Record Date 23-Se p-11 23-Se p-11 23-Se p-11 23-Se p-11 23-Se p-11 22-Se p-11 22-Se p-11 23-Se p-11 20-Se p-11 21-Se p-11 21-Se p-11 20-Se p-11 20-Se p-11
Gross 0.66 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.62 0.97 0.84 0.01 0.65 0.70 0.60 0.68 0.66
Corporate Non-Corporate 0.50 0.53 0.51 0.47 0.47 0.79 0.63 0.00 0.49 0.53 0.45 0.51 0.49 0.58 0.62 0.59 0.55 0.54 0.92 0.74 0.01 0.57 0.62 0.53 0.59 0.58
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