NVTC Newsletter080425

NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter
Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Add B-9-12, Block B, Level 9, Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Newsletter for the week ending 25 April 2008
THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

Page
1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

On Time and Trading …… 2
by Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Private Trader, Author,
Psychologist
2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) …….. 4
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 5
ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) …….. 6
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 7
iii) Thailand SET Index (SETI) …….. 8
Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 9
iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) …….. 10
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 11
v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) …….. 12
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 13
3. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 14
Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 17
© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

1. Trading/Investment Related Articles:
On Time and Trading
By Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Private Trader, Author, Psychologist
Driving along California's Route 1, connecting San Francisco and L.A., is conducive to
uplifting speculation and, indeed, recently prompted me to reflect upon the market-related lessons I have
learned in the past year. Perhaps the greatest lesson concerns the role of time as a market variable and,
in particular, how deformations of time--resulting from both market and personal activity--impact trading
behavior.
My lesson began when I observed that highly capable S&P traders consistently lost money when they
tried their hand at currency trading. Struck by the contrast of outcomes, I began to follow and simulation-
trade the currencies myself. My observation was that the currencies displayed far greater non-stationarity
than the equities. In other words, the time series of price changes during period A was far less likely to
resemble the time series of price changes during adjacent period B for currencies than for
equities. Dramatic swings in volume and volatility--as well as price direction--in the currencies made them
quite different to trade than the "Spooz".
The interesting phenomenon was that, while the markets traded differently, the traders' trading styles did
not adjust for this. At our firm, since my arrival, we employ software that closely tracks trader behavior,
providing metrics for such variables as number of trades (long and short), average holding periods of
trades (long/short, winning/losing), time periods between trades, etc. The metrics for the S&P traders did
not significantly vary when they shifted to currency trading; nor did they vary greatly from one period of
the currency trading day to another, despite the clear variations (non-stationarities).
My next observation was that currency traders who were more successful were more apt to shift their
trading styles and frequencies according to market conditions than those who were less successful. The
less successful traders tended to have an invariant style that sometimes fit market conditions, but often
did not.
To use Benoit Mandelbrot's phrase, market activity deforms time, creating a difference between
operational time--the time it typically takes a market to move a given distance--and chronological
time. Volume and volatility speed the market clock, but traders tend to function on chronological
time. I suspect traders run afoul of ever-changing cycles precisely because of the inevitable chasms that
separate chronological time from market time: chasms that are wider in some markets than others.
A related observation is that, just as market activity and inactivity shift the operational clock, the trader's
own activity and inactivity seem to alter his or her perceptions of time: their internal, subjective
clock. When a trader is actively trading, perceived time is compressed; when a trader is out of the market,
time passes far more slowly. Many emotional reactions of traders that affect trading, including impulsivity,
anxiety, and boredom, appear to spring from the subjective deformation of time that results from shifting
periods of activity and inactivity.
(I recall one of our traders who would regularly scream at his screen, fuming about markets that would
"stop trading". When I sat by the trader to observe his trading, I noticed that he would put on large

positions when markets were active and then would feel time dragging as volume returned to its
mean. Subjectively, he felt trapped in his trade despite the fact that the market was actually moving his
way--just not at his subjective pace.)
It is little wonder that discretionary traders fare so poorly in the markets as a group. Between the
time deformations imposed by changing market cycles and the time distortions imposed by our own
subjective calibrations, it is difficult to truly "follow the market". We tend to treat time as a constant, in our
charts and in our research. I suspect, however, that it is precisely the variability (and relativity) of time
that imparts challenge to trading.
Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago and
Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in
Syracuse, NY. He is also an active trader and writes occasional feature articles on market psychology for a variety
of publications. The author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley; January, 2003), Dr. Steenbarger has published
over 50 peer-reviewed articles and book chapters on short-term approaches to behavioral change. His new, co-
edited book The Art and Science of Brief Therapy is a core curricular text in psychiatry training programs. Many of
Dr. Steenbarger’s articles and trading strategies are archived on his website, www.brettsteenbarger.com

2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI)
Technical Analysis as of 25/04/2008
Basic Price information

Close: 1,288.0800
Trend Analysis
MACD (6.3236)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bullish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(1,268.4080), 30-day(1,238.5181), 60-day(1,298.3439), 100-day(1,349.8792).

SHORT-Term Trend: Very bullish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bearish
Support and Resistance Analysis

Immediate Support: 1,216.3800
Longer term Support: 1,157.4700
Immediate Resistance: 1,300.1500
Longer term Resistance: 1,429.9301
100 day SMA Resistance: 1,349.8792

Stochastic(89.2113) is currently overbought and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: Engulfing Bear is detected today
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: No bar chart bullish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 151,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 201,400 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
Bulls are gaining the edge over the bears in the KLCI
The KLCI did test the 1,300 points resistance level as expected and the upward rally’s momentum
seems to building up. The Relative Strength Index indicator (RSI) has gone above the half-mark
level which indicates that the bulls are gaining the edge over the bears. Although the short term
trend is up, the longer term trend is still down. The KLCI is below the long term 90-day moving
average and this average, together with its mid-term 60-day average is still declining. The KLCI is
currently at 1,288.08 points.
The KLCI is expected to climb higher with this kind of momentum, but may face resistance at 1,320
points , if based on a Fibonacci extension from the rally that started on 11th of March this year. The
immediate support is currently at 1,260 points.

ii) FT Singapore Straits Times Index (FTSTI)

Close: 3,189.20
Trend Analysis
MACD (45.0798)
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(3,135.7021), 30-day(3,051.9343), 60-day(3,018.0435), 100-day(3,144.3828).

LONG-Term Trend: Bullish


100 day SMA Support: 3,144.3828

Stochastic(79.5045) is currently slightly overbought and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : Stochastic crossed below its %D today.
Volatility Analysis
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 263,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 245,900 shares.
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
May test 3,300 resistance level
The FTSI broke the slight resistance level of 3,200 points last week and this shows that strong
momentum that I wrote about last week is still strong. The FSTI closed at 3,189.20 points last
Friday. Currently the FTSTI is above all the short to long term moving averages and this indicates a
change in the down trend is taking place. Once the declining long term 90-day moving average
starts to change its course, then a new trend, which is the up trend is developing.
The FTSTI still has to break 3,300 points resistance level to continue the up trend. The momentum
of the trend is still quite strong with the ADX indicator rising and the RSI indicator staying above the
50 level. Support level maintains at 3,000 points, with a short term support level at 3,150 which is
not that strong.

iii) Thailand SET Index

Close: 832.19
Trend Analysis
MACD (5.1558)
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(836.8450), 30-day(823.9957), 60-day(820.6600), 100-day(816.3733).


Immediate Support: 820.9800
Longer term Support: 796.2300
Immediate Resistance: 853.5000

Longer term Resistance: 853.5000
100 day SMA Support: 816.3733

200 day SMA Support: 828.2966
Stochastic(44.6671) is currently in neutral zone and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bearish Candlestick pattern: Engulfing Bear was detected 2 days ago
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : Key Reversal DOWN was detected 2 days ago
Stochastic
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 543,260,992 shares, 30-day average volume: 419,378,144 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional Thailand Stock Market analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist,
NextView
Upward momentum building up
The SETI closed on a weak note last week after it tested the 850 points resistance level. The SETI
was expected to break the resistance because of strong momentum, but failed. This shows that the
resistance level is strong. The SETI closed at832.19 points last Friday. However, the decline has not
challenged the upward momentum and therefore the SETI still has the strength to break the 850
points resistance to test the 900 points resistance. The RSI indicator remains above 50 and the ADX
indicator is still increasing. Current support level maintains at 800 points.

iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Close: 25,516.78
Trend Analysis
MACD (515.0599)
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(24,619.5234), 30-day(23,549.5488), 60-day(23,606.8047), 100-

day(24,972.8086).



Stochastic(90.4255) is currently overbought and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : Island Reversal DOWN was detected yesterday
Stochastic
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : Stochastic crossed below its %D today.
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 4,084,064,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 2,598,281,984 shares.
Volume strength is strong. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
HSI has came out of the consolidation, positively
The HSI managed to break out of the 25,000 points resistance level and stay above it and this
means that the HSI has also come out of their consolidation. The HSI is currently at 25516.78 points.
The breakout of the consolidation period has a technical target of 29,000 points, if it can currently
stay above 25,000 points currently. All momentum indicators are showing more strength because of
the strong performance last week. Therefore, the HIS is expected to continue its upward journey in
the longer term, but we may see some minor pull back once the HSI reaches the Fibonacci extension
target at 27,700 points, which is the immediate resistance level. The immediate support level is at
the 25,000 points level.

v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

Close: 12,891.86
Trend Analysis
MACD (120.8188)
strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(12,676.5879), 30-day(12,471.0615), 60-day(12,410.9238), 100-

day(12,651.4580).



Stochastic(85.8324) is currently overbought and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : Stochastic crossed below its %D 2 days ago.
Volatility Analysis
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 240,760,992 shares, 30-day average volume: 255,746,912 shares.
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
DJI is expected to climb higher
Like the Hong Kong’s HSI, the DJI has come out of its consolidation period after breaking the
resistance level of 12,800 points in the week before last week (a week earlier before the HSI came
out of consolidation) and it managed to stay above this level. I have mentioned last week that the
breakout of the consolidation period has a price target at 13,700 points. The DJI is currently at
12,891.86 points.
It has to stay above 12,800 points to remain in the up trend (the short term trend). The long term
trend is currently changing its trend to upwards because the DJI is above the 90-day moving
average. It is not considered an up trend yet because the moving average is still declining. The
immediate resistance level would be a psychological level at 13,000 points while immediate support
is at 12,800 and stronger support level at 12,500 points.

3. Regional Traders Education Events this week
MALAYSIA

SINGAPORE

________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) and NextView Traders Club (NVTC) are NOT a licensed
investment advisors. This publication, which is generally available to members of NVTC, falls under Media Advice provisions. These
analysis notes are based on our experience of applying technical analysis to the market and are designed to be used as a tutorial showing
how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on recent trading data. This newsletter is a tool to assist you in your
personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant, your Stockbroker. It has been prepared without
regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because readers come from diverse
backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from
your broker or other investment advisors as appropriate before taking any action. The decision to trade and the method of trading is for
the reader alone to decide. The author, contributors and publisher expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, whether the
purchase of this publication or not, in respect of anything and of the consequences of anything done or omitted to be done by any such
person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. Neither NextView Sdn Bhd
(including offices in other countries) nor its officers, employees and agents, will be liable for any loss or damage incurred by any person
directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this newsletter is
copyright and for the sole use of NVTC Members. It cannot be circulated to other readers without the permission of the publisher. This is
not a newsletter of stock tips. Case study trades are notional and analyzed in real time on a weekly basis. NextView Sdn Bhd does not
receive any commission or benefit from the trading activities undertaken by readers, or any benefit or fee from any of the stocks reviewed
in the newsletter. NextView Sdn Bhd is an independent financial education organization and research is supported by NVTC annual
membership fees.
OFFICES;
Head Office Malaysia: B-9-12, Block B, Level 9 Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Singapore: 5 Shenton Way,
#02-03/05 UIC Building, Singapore 068808. Thailand: The Millennia Tower, 18th Floor, Unit 1806, 62 Langsuan Road, Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok,
10330, Thailand. Hong Kong: Room B, 16/F, Crawford Tower, 99 Jervois Street, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. China: 98 Liuhe Road, 16A GangLu
HuangPu Center Building, Shanghai 200001

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NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter

Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Newsletter for the week ending 25 April 2008

THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

3. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 14

Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 17

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 2

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 3

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(1,268.4080), 30-day(1,238.5181), 60-day(1,298.3439), 100-day(1,349.8792).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 4

100 day SMA Resistance: 1,349.8792

Stochastic(89.2113) is currently overbought and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 5

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(3,135.7021), 30-day(3,051.9343), 60-day(3,018.0435), 100-day(3,144.3828).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 6

100 day SMA Support: 3,144.3828

Stochastic(79.5045) is currently slightly overbought and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

May test 3,300 resistance level

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 7

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(836.8450), 30-day(823.9957), 60-day(820.6600), 100-day(816.3733).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 8

100 day SMA Support: 816.3733

Stochastic(44.6671) is currently in neutral zone and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Upward momentum building up

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 9

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(24,619.5234), 30-day(23,549.5488), 60-day(23,606.8047), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 10

100 day SMA Support: 24,972.8086

Stochastic(90.4255) is currently overbought and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

HSI has came out of the consolidation, positively

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 11

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(12,676.5879), 30-day(12,471.0615), 60-day(12,410.9238), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 12

100 day SMA Support: 12,651.4580

Stochastic(85.8324) is currently overbought and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

DJI is expected to climb higher

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 13

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 14

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 16

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 17

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