Lecture 1: Measurements and errors

• Estimation vs. measurement: how exact can a measurement be?

Archimedes and the golden crown
Archimedes was asked to find out if a crown was made of solid gold. He
proposed to measure the density. The density of solid gold is 15.5g/cm3
while the density of the most common alloy is 13.8g/cm3.
Two surveyors measured the density of the crown.
A: estimated a density of 15 with it most certainly being between 13.5 and
16.5g/cm3
B: estimated a density of 13.9 with a probable range of 13.7 to 14.1g/cms.
Which was correct?

• Every measurement has an associated uncertainty or error.

The measurement is stated as x(best) ± δx

The fractional uncertainty is δx/x(best)

RuleRule
for for
stating
stating
answers
Theuncertainties
last significant figure
• When the second significant figure in an error is a large proportion
in of
anythe
Experimental
answer should
error then 2 significant figures may be retained . usually
uncertainties
be of the are
same
• During calculations always retain one more significant figure than order
almost
of magnitude
always as the
necessary and round at the final answer. uncertainty
rounded to one
significant figure
• Examples: rewrite the following measurements and their errors.
v = 8.123456 ±0.0312 m/s
x = 3.1234 x104 ± 2 m Types of
-7 -9
m = 5.6789 x 10 ± 3 x 10 kg Errors
2
g = 9.6012 ± 0.316 m/s
How does this compare to the real g = 9.8m/s2? Random:
can be
treated statistically
• Experimental uncertainties that can be revealed by repeating
measurements eg. Testing reaction time with stopwatch

Systematic: cannot be treated statistically eg. stopwatch running slow

 The ✱’s are very precise (close together) but way off
target
∴ not very accurate!

Random : small
Systematic: large

Very Accurate, ie near the centre of the target but not

precise

Random: large
Systematic: small

Very Accurate & Precise.

Random: small
Systematic: small

But what happens when the target value is not known?

Error Propagation
If there is an error in one measurement and it is used to find another value
the error propagates with the answer.

Provisional rules
When measured quantities add or subtract the uncertainties add; when the
measured quantities multiply or divide the fractional uncertainties add.
Addition and subtraction Multiplication or division
q=x+y q = x .y
δq ≈ δx+δy δq ≈ δx +δy
|q| |x| |y|

Provided they are independent and random the errors can be added in
quadrature.
δq = δx2 + δy2
|q| √  x   y 
δq = √(δx)2+(δy)2 δq ≤ δx + δq ≤ δx +δy
δy |q| |x| |y|

Powers
q=xn
δq = nδx
|q| |x|

(A2 + B2)1/2

Constants A
q = Bx
δq =|B|δx or
δq = δx
|q| |x| B

(A2 +B2)1/2 < A + B

Uncertainty in a function
q = q(x)
δq = |dq| δx
|dx|

Examples:
1. The average incidence of a certain type of cancer is 2 cases per 10,000
people per year. The suspicion has been aired that a certain town
(population 20,000) has a higher incidence of this cancer because of a
 nearby chemical dump. If in the past 4 years, there were 20 cases of the
cancer is this suspicion justified?

2. Evaluate the following using the provisional rule and the quadrature rule.
a) (5 ± 1) + (8 ± 2) - (10 ± 4)
b) (5 ± 1) x (8 ± 2)

3. If the radius of a sphere is measured as 2.0 ± 0.1m, what is the volume of

the sphere?

4. Evaluate the uncertainty in cosθ when θ is measured as 30 ± 2°.

Statistical errors:

Square root rule…

• If an event occurs in a random manner but at a definite rate the
uncertainty is the square root of the number of events
(Average number of events in time T) = v ±√v

Standard Deviation
If a measurement can be made more than once then an average value can be
determined, as well as a range of values.

Times(s) Deviation Deviation squared

12.5 0.3 0.09
10.0 -1.2 1.44
13.1 0.9 0.81
12.6 0.4 0.16
13.0 0.8 0.64
12.2 0 0
11.9 -0.3 0.9
12.8 0.6 0.36
11.3 -0.9 0.81
12.4 0.2 0.04 .
121.8 0 5.25 SUM
σ = (5.25/10) = 0.2756
1/2

mean time: 12.2s

deviation d = mean – value = t - t

The variance is σ2 = d2/N =

The standard deviation σ is (variance)1/2 =

Therefore for the above data, the standard deviation is a measure of the
uncertainty in the measurements. T = 12.2 ± 0.3s

The standard deviation measures the precision of a set of results.

68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean.
Weighted average

When the errors in a set of measurements are not all equal it is sometimes
easier to find the weighted average.

Xwav = waxa + wbxb

wa + wb

Where w are the weights of each measurement and w = 1/δx2

Therefore the weighted error is δx = (1/Σw)1/2

Because the weight associated with each measurement is inversely

proportional to the square of the error in that measurement, less precise
measurements will contribute much less to the final answer.

Example: Three students measure the length of a desk to be:

A: 1532 ± 1mm
B: 1531 ± 5mm
C: 1531 ± 2mm
What is the weighted average?

wA = 1/12 = 1 wB = 1/52 = 0.04 wC = 1/22 = 0.25

Xwav = 1*1532 + 0.04*1531+0.25*1531

1+0.04+0.25
= 1531.78 mm
error = (1/1.29)1/2 = 0.88 mm
Therefore the answer is presented as 1531.8 ± 0.9 mm

NOTE: when the errors are the same for each measurement this formula
reduces to the mean value.

What would the standard error for these measurements be?

Average: 1531 ± 8mm but using the provisional rule ± 6mm