Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Headlines
(Global Economy) German lawmakers approved an expansion of the euro-area rescue fund (Indian Economy) The food price index rose 9.13% WoW (Economic Calendar) (Global and Domestic Stock Markets) (Derivative Analysis) Nifty September Futures closed at 4931 (Technical Analysis) Nifty Supports at 4880-4800 and resistance 5020-5110. (Weekly Recommendations) JPASSOCIATE & GSPL (Sector & Company Highlights) (MF Industry update)
Headline Inflation by WPI (%) (August 2011) Annualize d Rate (curre nt) Headline Inflation (WPI) 9.78 Internals Primary Products Fue l Powe r and Lubricants Manufacture d Goods
Source: CCIL
INR Exchange Rate (As on September 29, 2011) Current 1 Week USD GBP Euro Ye n 48.93 76.52 66.65 63.90 48.82 75.48 66.1 63.61 Change Weekly 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 1 Year 45.73 71.24 59.84 53.44 Change annual 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.20
8.44 8.36
Economic Calendar
India Date 6-Oct 6-Oct 6-Oct Eve nt Food Articles WPI YoY Fue l Power Article s WPI YoY Primary Article s WPI YoY Pe riod 24-Sep 24-Sep 24-Sep Prior 9.1% 14.7% 11.4%
US Date 3-Oct 3-Oct 3-Oct 6-Oct 6-Oct 7-Oct 7-Oct Eve nt Construction Spending MoM ISM Manufacturing ISM Price s Paid Initial Jobless Claims RBC Consume r Outlook Inde x Unemployme nt Rate Change in Manufact Payroll Pe riod AUG SEP SEP 30-Sep OCT SEP SEP Prior -1.3% 50.6 55.5 40.2 -3K
Global
Growth concerns have begun hurting the markets as the markets start pricing in a recession or a recession like scenario. Data emerging from US on the consumer spending and personal income numbers did not help. Greece might get saved again with Germany showing its support. However fear in financial markets remains high. For the month, US are down 7 percent. Commodities remained weak with crude dipping below $80 levels. Reports of potential weakness in Chinese growth have only added to worries.
Outlook
International markets, flows are bound to remain in focus but corporate results will be the key. Expectations are not too high from the current results but we have not yet seen a significant reduction in earning estimates for current year. Thus a visible deterioration in performance and guidance from companies has the potential to dampen sentiment further and lead to more weakness in the short term. Sectors like cement, pharma, fmcg have held out while we have seen some recovery in software and auto stocks on hopes of better performance. Greece, Economic growth concerns will still remain the dominant themes in short term. Growth concerns have been centered around Euro zone and US but news flow now emanating from China is also worrisome. On the domestic front, government policy, politics will continue to be important. Corporate performance will be the key in short term but given the environment, the potential for negative surprises has clearly increased.
Institutional Activity in INR Bn (Weekly) Institutions FII DIIs Ne t Inflow -15.5 10.8
Market Snapshot
Nifty September Futures closed at 4931 (discount of 12.25 points over the Nifty spot) Open interest Nifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 Sept): 19.64 mn. Open interest BankNifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 Sept): 1.89 mn. India VIX for the week ended at 31.94, down 3.22 from previous weeks close (35.16). In the week VIX touched low of 30.28 and high of 38.19. Weekly Open Interest Analysis (Nifty Option) Across all expiries, open interest is highest at 5000, 5100 & 5200 call options,
51 00
4600
4800
4900
5400
4700
4500
5000
5200
5300
while open interest in the put options is highest at 4800, 4700 & 4600 strike
5500
Strike
prices, suggesting 4700-5100 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short term.
Sector Wise OI Change: The Sectors that witnessed positive OI change are IT, METAL & MINING & PHARMA while the remaining sectors witnessed fall in OI
OI-Cha nge
520 0
5 300
4 8 00
450 0
470 0
500 0
540 0
46 00
49 00
5 500
51 0 0
Strike
Cement CapitalGoods IT
Sec tors
% Change - Price Cash Future -21.62 -19.95 -17.49 -13.79 -12.83 -21.36 -20.63 -18.28 -13.86 -12.67
%Change - Volume % Change Cash Future in OI 328.80 240.71 298.01 14.93 124.07 185.51 122.40 102.68 6.80 76.13 88.27 77.82 11.88 -7.68 19.06
-400%
-150%
-600%
-500%
-300%
-200%
-700%
-650%
-450%
-550%
-350%
-250%
% Change in OI
Nifty PC Ratio
-100%
-50%
Date
Top 10 Volume Gainers SCRIPS % Change in F&O % Change Volumes Price Open Interest (Delivery Based) DIVISLAB 2.30 6.19 330.71 GMDCLTD -5.60 -27.16 16.41 FORTIS -5.16 54.68 -62.87 ABGSHIP 4.05 0.99 85.78 HOTELEELA 0.83 -5.52 -78.25 VOLTAS -4.37 -11.45 613.17 RELCAPITAL -21.62 88.27 667.90 ESSAROIL -7.95 0.20 738.84 COREEDUTEC 0.42 -11.52 34.88 ROLTA -11.11 5.43 123.48
(Source: Iris)
Conclusion
Last week Nifty shut on a positive note @ 4943.25 and up by 75.50 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish candle stick pattern, which shows sideways sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 4878.60 and made a 4759 of 5168.40 and made a high of 5034.25 then finally closed sideways sentiment at 4943.25. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signaling that selling pressure at resistance levels are possible short-term. Nifty closed below the 50 day moving average (5130) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to negative. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if resistance levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 4800-5100. The next area of resistance is around at 5020-5110. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 4880-4800 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4900 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5020-5110 and supports at 4880-4800. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 16700-17050 and supports at 16320-16110. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9675-9880 and supports at 9280-9000.
Pharma
Ipca Laboratories plans to acquire a pharmaceutical company in Indonesia especially with a generic product marketing license, with a view to enter the largest South-East Asian market. The company has put together a $20 million war-chest for the acquisition, to be made within the next few months. Unichem Laboratories has earmarked INR 1200 mn for capital expenditure plans in the current financial year, of which INR 400 mn would be spent for the formulations plant at the SEZ, Pithampur, and INR 480 mn for an R&D centre and the balance for normal capex activities. The new research and development (R&D) facility at Goa would come up in the vicinity of the existing plant.
IT
Wipro is considering selling data centers and other computer hardware assets of its US unit Infocrossing, a financial daily reported on Monday, quoting unnamed officials and bankers familiar with the talks. Wipro has received initial offers from several US telecom firms for sale of five data centers that could be worth between USD 300 mn to USD 400 mn
Infra
HCC Concessions, a wholly-owned subsidiary of HCC Infrastructure, said it has concluded 14.5% equity dilution to global investment firm Xander Group to raise INR 2400 mn to fund its existing projects. HCC Concessions is aiming a turnover of over INR 5000 mn by financial year 2014, with a free cash flow CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of over 75% in the next five years.
10
28-Sep
27-Sep
26-Sep
-10 0
Equity
10
20
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced that ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan would be available as a source scheme under the existing daily Systematic Transfer Plan (STP) facility, with effect from 27th September 2011. The minimum STP Amount will be Rs. 250 and in multiples of Rs.50, thereafter. The target scheme where STP can be made will be ICICI Prudential Top 200 Fund, Infra Fund, Dynamic Plan, Discovery Fund, MidCap Fund and Focused Bluechip Fund
-15 -10
Debt
26-Sep
-5
Equity
10
Weekly Activity
Date Mutual Fund Activity 28-Se p-11 27-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 FII Activity 29-Se p-11 28-Se p-11 27-Se p-11 26-Se p-11
Source: Accord Fintech
Equity (INR in Bn) Purchase 3.19 4.95 4.57 Sales 4.76 3.01 4.20 Net Purchase /Sales -1.57 1.95 0.37 Purchase 48.53 25.90 34.42
Debt (INR in Bn) Sales 34.54 44.70 28.69 Net Purchase /Sales 13.99 -18.80 5.73
11
26-S ep
4-Oc t
investing in a po rtfo lio o f fixed inc ome sec urities maturing on o r befo re the duratio n o f the sc heme. ICICI Prudential Regular Go ld S avings Fund (the
20-S ep
4-Oc t
Open ended
S c heme) is a fund o f funds sc heme with the Chaitanya Pande primary o bjec tive to pro vide investment returns that c losely c o rrespo nds to returns o f the underlying Go ldlinked fund(s) or S c hemes. The investment objec tive o f the Plan under the S c heme is to seek to pro tec t c apital by investing a po rtio n o f the po rtfo lio in go o d quality debt sec urities & mo ney market instruments and also to
ICICI P ru CP O-IV36M-(G)
22-S ep
5-Oc t
Clo se ended
balanc e in equity and equity related sec urities. The sec urities wo uld mature o n o r befo re the maturity o f the Plan under the S c heme. Ho wever, there c an be no assuranc e that the investment o bjec tive of the Plan under the S c heme will be realized. To pro vide regular inc o me, liquidity and returns to the investors thro ugh investments in a po rtfo lio
SBI DFS-18M-7(G)
29-S ep
7-Oc t
Clo se ended
Rajeev Radhakrishnan
c o mprising
of
debt
instruments
suc h
as
Government S ec urities, PS U & Co rporate Bo nds Index (Benc hmark) and Mo ney Market Instruments maturing o n o r befo re the maturity of the sc heme. The primary investment objec tive is to generate monthly inc ome thro ugh investments in a range of Debt, Equity and Mo ney Market Instruments.
27-S ep 11-Oc t
Open ended
Inc o me will be distributed o nly if the same is earned by the S c heme and there c an be no assuranc e that the o bjec tive o f the S c heme will be realized.
12
Benchmark
13
Absolute Return (In %) 1 Week 1 Month 0.95 1.12 -0.64 1.50 1.50 0.87 0.17 -0.13 0.02 0.20 0.01 0.62 1.74 1.78 0.05 2.27 2.02 0.47 0.49 0.59 0.33 0.75 0.77 1.10 1 Year -10.91 -12.16 -15.15 -10.53 -15.20 -12.78 3.55 1.43 1.69 -6.97 -0.86 -6.67
CAGR (In %) Since Inception 28.99 20.57 22.80 23.01 21.58 29.67 9.56 10.66 11.42 18.62 16.69 16.07
(30 Sep 11) 96.81 32.95 43.18 200.97 190.31 92.52 26.95 21.90 23.16 204.31 55.07 79.89
BETA 0.70 0.79 0.69 0.78 0.88 0.78 0.07 0.29 0.14 0.08 0.08 0.21
ALPHA 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.02 -0.05
Expense Ratio 1.82 1.84 1.92 1.83 1.78 1.85 2.09 1.54 1.52 1.80 2.11 2.34
(In %)
(30 Sep 11) 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year Since Inception 17.60 16.38 16.60 17.13 31.98 33.79 11.02 11.49 17.57 13.06 16.75 15.33 21.39 1443.76 2334.83 0.22 0.20 0.16 0.06 -0.15 -0.61 0.18 0.17 0.11 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.81 0.77 0.68 0.46 0.08 -0.09 0.76 0.75 0.62 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.73 0.74 0.68 8.59 8.00 6.88 7.63 4.85 2.96 9.08 7.47 8.73 8.40 8.57 8.70 8.31 8.55 7.90 7.03 6.06 6.99 7.99 9.18 10.67 8.63 7.06 7.30 6.48 7.30 6.58 6.89 6.69
YTM
Average Days
Modified Expense Ratio 0.14 0.82 0.60 0.79 2.13 1.24 0.65 1.35 0.59 0.65 0.57 0.25 0.41 0.20 0.65 Days 54.75 222.65 25.20 912.50 1744.70 1668.05 69.35 262.80 0.00 43.80 29.20 0.00 23.00 35.82 0.00
Maturity In Duration in 54.75 244.55 26.40 1003.75 2679.10 2489.30 76.65 372.30 938.05 47.45 29.20 60.90 25.00 38.34 30.00
9.00 0.00 0.00 9.75 9.43 0.00 9.79 0.00 9.29 9.30 9.07 0.00 0.00 8.55
8.03 10.06
14
Category Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Equity Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid Hybrid
Record Date 27-Se p-11 27-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 30-Se p-11 28-Se p-11 29-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 28-Se p-11 29-Se p-11 29-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 29-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 26-Se p-11 27-Se p-11 29-Se p-11
Gross 1.51 0.37 2.01 1.51 3.00 0.68 2.05 0.68 2.05 0.57 1.71 2.99 22.83 1.75 1.14 0.12 0.71 0.60 1.81 1.29
Corporate Non-Corporate 1.13 0.28 1.51 1.13 3.00 0.51 1.54 0.51 1.54 0.43 1.29 2.25 20.00 1.31 0.85 0.09 0.71 0.45 1.36 0.97 1.32 0.33 1.76 1.32 3.00 0.60 1.80 0.60 1.80 0.50 1.50 2.62 20.00 1.53 1.00 0.10 0.71 0.53 1.59 1.13
15
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd. (UNICON) for the information of its customers only. UNICON is governed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained in good faith from public sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced independently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectations contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only and is provided on an as is basis. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell or subscribe to any securities or other financial instruments. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. UNICON, its associate and group companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject UNICON or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of UNICON. This document is for the general information and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual customer, and it does not constitute a personalized recommendation of any particular security or investment strategy. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this document, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customers particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. UNICON, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk. UNICON, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and any information in it. UNICON, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Address: Wealth Management Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, VILCO Center, Opp Garware House, 8, Subhash Road, Vile Parle (East), Mumbai - 400057. Ph: 022-33901234 Email: wealthresearch@unicon.in Visit us at www.unicon.in
16