Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Pricedeclineorhighercost?
The latest tender results for a condo site at Upper Serangoon Crescent / Upper Serangoon Road led to a quick conclusionthatdevelopersarefactoringinapricedeclineforselectedmassmarketsites,withsomesayingupto 20%.Landcostisonlyoneofthemajorcostcomponentsforthedeveloper,theotheristhecostofconstruction.The highestbidinthelatesttenderis$291psfpprbyAllgreen.Thisislowerthanthesalepriceofthesiteoccupiedby BoathouseResidences,whichwassoldfor$320psfpprinNovember2010.However,ifyouconsidera10%risein construction cost over the next year (works out to be about $30 psf) when the project launches and calls for constructiontender,thetwositessharethesamebreakevencost,inwhichcasethedeveloperisexpectingflatmass marketpricesoraslightdip,butnotasgloomyanoutlookasamajordecline.
Thereareatleast3factorscontributingtotheriseofconstructioncost.Constructionmaterialsuchassteelbarsand readymixedconcretehasseenpricesrisingby15%yoy.InFebruary,aroundoflevyincreaseandquotatightening wasenforcedonforeignworkers.Andmorerecently,salaryrequirementsforEmploymentPassareraised.Therising cost of construction is reflected in construction contracts, The Gale cost $270 psf to build in October 2009 but HedgesParkcost$326psfinJune2011.ExecutiveCondominiums(EC)arenotspared.EsparinaResidencesandPrive cost$195psftobuildinSeptember2010butBelysacost$216psfinMay2011.
Apart from the rising construction cost, there are other factors putting developers off in the latest tender. The supplyriskinthevicinityappearshigh,thereare2ECsites,3privatecondositesand1Design,BuildandSellScheme siteallwithinashortradiusof500m.Thesiteinquestionofmorethan900,000sqftofGFAisalsolargerthanan averageGLSsiteof550,000sqft.ItisnearlydoublethesizeofBoathouseResidencesandisexpectedtoyield860 units. GovernmentLandSale(GLS)sites
Developer:UE/Lee Metal Project:Austville Residences(EC) Units:540 ASP:$720psf Landcost:$321psf ppr Sold:May2010 Developer: Qingdao Est.units:550 Landcost:$391 psfppr Sold:Jun2011 Developer: Allgreen Est.units:860 Landcost:$291 psfppr Sold:Sep2011
2H2011GLS ReserveList(EC) Est.units:435 Developer:FarEast/Frasers Project:BoathouseResidences Units:493 ASP:$880psf Landcost:$320psfppr Sold: Nov 2010
Source:URA
Co.RegNo:198700034E MICA(P):090/11/2009
SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS
UPPERSERANGOON
Tenderresults
Austville Residences (EC) May2010 UE+LeeMetal 549,006 176.0 115.8 7 540 320.6 195.0 560 Boathouse Residences (Private) Nov2010 Frasers/ Far East 489,773 156.8 136.4 4 493 320.1 300.0 665
TheRealDeals8September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Parkland Residences (DBSS) Dec2010 LowKengHuat 753,480 155.2 113.3 2 630 206.0 160.0 400
Buangkok Drive (Private) Jun2011 Qingdao 631,283 247.0 145.2 4 550 391.3 320.0 765
Upper Serangoon (Private) Sep2011 Allgreen 927,553 270.3 242.0 3 860 291.4 330.0 665
Source:URA,HDB,Company
2.ExecutiveCondominium
Awarddate May2011 Sep2010 Aug2010 Project Belysa EsparinaResidences Prive GFA 342,280 613,548 726,483 Constructioncost $m 74.0 119.4 142.0 $psf 216.20 194.61 195.46 Contractor ChipEngSeng LumChang ChipEngSeng
Source:URA,HDB,Company
Primarymarketsales ThesaleofAustvilleResidences(EC)hasbeenrelativelyslow,ithasachievedabout54%takeupsinceits launchinJanuary2011.Tocompare,BelysaatPasirRis(launchedinMay2011)hasbeenfullysoldatan ASPof$690psfwhileRiverparcatPunggol(launchedinJuly2011)hasalreadyachievedatakeuprateof over 60% with an ASP of $700 psf. A reason could be pricing. The developers breakeven for Austville ResidencesisthehighestamongsttheECslaunchedandthereforetheprojectisaskingforanaverageof $720psf,$20higherthantheaveragepriceofECunitsataround$700psf.Thesaleof540unitBoathouse Residencessawabout100unitssoldinthefirstweekoflaunch,achieving$880psf.
SaleofAustvilleResidences
Month Jul2011 Jun2011 May2011 Apr2011 Mar2011 Feb2011 Jan2011 Units soldin Takeup month % 19 54% 23 50% 29 46% 26 41% 36 36% 62 29% 95 18% Lowest price $psf 585 585 602 590 600 600 599 Median price $psf 728 713 719 709 707 721 719 Highest price $psf 773 768 773 762 775 777 772
Source:URA
MARKETSNAPSHOT
TheRealDeals8September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
UpcomingVVIPLaunches ThreeBalmoral(District10)
A 40unit freehold development by Tong Eng locatedintheheartofthecity.Allunitsenjoy unobstructed panoramic view of the pristine GoodwoodHill.
PropertyPriceIndices
Index SRPIOverall(July11) RESIComposite(2Q11) URAPPI(2Q11) HDBResale(2Q11)
*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are probablynotaVVIP.Waitforthepubliclaunch.
GovernmentLandSales(GLS)
RecentlyAwardedSites West Coast Link / West Coast Crescent (35.5k sqm, 360units)AwardedtoFarEastfor$175.8m,($460.6psf ppr) ChoaChuKangRoad/PhoenixRoad(32.3ksqm,335 units) Awarded to Far East and China Construction for $142.8m($410.5psfppr) Punggol Way / Punggol Field, EC (75.5k sqm, 720 units)AwardedtoFrasersCentrepointandKeongHong Constructionfor$219.5($270psfppr) Upper Serangoon Road / Pheng Geck Avenue (30.3k sqm, 330 units) Awarded to Tuan Sing for $185.2m ($567.3psfppr) Serangoon Garden Way (28.4k sqm, 80 units) AwardedtoCDL/HongLeongfor$105m($343.5psf) Punggol Field / Punggol Walk (48.8k sqm, 550 units) Awarded to Capital Development / ZACD for $169.6m ($323psfppr) Upper Serangoon Crescent / Upper Serangoon Road (86.2k sqm, 860 units) Highest bid of$270.3m ($291.4 psfppr)fromAllgreen ConfirmedList(RecentlyOpenforTender) Jalan Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise (36.3k sqm, 355 units)Tenderclosingon4October Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Link, EC (39.0k sqm, 390 units)Tenderclosingon11October Flora Drive (41.9k sqm, 415 units) Tender closing on 19October YishunCentral7/CanberraDrive,EC(67.9ksqm,725 units)Tenderclosingon25October ReserveList(RecentlyOpenforTender) JalanJurongKechil(14.2ksqm,240units) BuangkokDr/SengkangCentral(55ksqm,495units) TanahMerahKechilRd(39.2ksqm,470units) StirlingRoadA(44.5ksqm,445units) StirlingRoadB(44.1sqm,445units) EliasRd/PasirRisDr3(32.7ksqm,295units) HillviewAve(35.4ksqm,405units) SengkangSquare(64.4ksqm,710units) Upper Serangoon View/ Upper Serangoon Road, EC (43.3ksqm,420units)
Source:HDB,URA
Recenttransactions
Project TheRivervale Watermark HoltResidences NinResidence KovanResidences TheMinton MelvillePark EastpointGreen AscentiaSky Rivergate Uber388 Zenith Queens OleanderTowers HighOak Pinevale Celestia CrystalLodge EmeraldPark Summerdale Reflections AtriumResidences TheFloravale ForesqueResidences
Source:URA
Tenure 99yr FH FH 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr FH FH 999yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr FH FH 99yr 99yr 99yr FH 99yr 99yr
Price ($psf) 731 1,906 1,413 1,082 1,085 913 672 859 1,265 1,903 1,372 1,951 1,262 886 912 695 703 697 1,056 674 2,222 864 671 1,323
Planningarea Sengkang SporeRiver Tanglin ToaPayoh Hougang Hougang Tampines Tampines BukitMerah SporeRiver Bedok Tanglin Queenstown ToaPayoh BukitTimah Tampines Geylang Geylang BukitMerah JurongWest BukitMerah Geylang JurongWest BukitPanjang
PropertyStocks
Name CapitaLand CityDev HoBee HPL KepLand SingLand UOL Wheelock WingTai
Price 2.67 10.21 1.335 2.08 3.01 6.45 4.65 1.66 1.34
RNAV 3.97 13.27 2.76 4.41 5.25 10.42 N.A. N.A. 3.03
Disc/ Prem to RNAV 33% 23% 52% 53% 43% 38% N.A. N.A. 56%
Disc/ Premto NTA/share* NTA/share 3.18 16% 7.18 42% 2.13 37% 2.63 21% 2.72 11% 10.57 39% 6.39 27% 2.32 28% 2.25 40%
N.A.=NoCoverage*Asatlatestreported
DEVELOPERSLANDBANK
Developer District 06 09 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 23 23 Sentosa 01 02 04 04 04 04 19 22 03 09 10 10 15 16 20 26 Sentosa Sentosa 02 16 02 05 09 12 12 21 09 10
TheRealDeals8September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
CityDev
KepLand
CapitaLand
Landbank SouthBeach(BeachRoad) Futura(LeonieRoad) BoulevardHotel(CuscadenRoad) LuckyTower(GrangeRoad) BuckleyClassique(BuckleyRoad) HedgesPark(FloraRoad) NVResidences(PasirRis) PasirRisGrove,parcel3+stateland(PasirRis) PasirRisDrive8,parcels4+5(PasirRis) Tampines/UppChangiRdNorth H2OResidences(SengkangWestAve) BartleyRoadGLS(BartleyRoad) ChoaChukangGLS(EC)(ChoaChuKangDrive) SegarRoadGLS(EC)(SegarRoad) ResidencesatW(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits MarinaBaySuites(MarinaBay) Keppel&GETowerssite(TanjongPagar) ReflectionsatKeppelBay(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot3(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot4(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot5(KeppelBay) SengkangGLSsite(SengkangSquare) TheLakesideResidences(LakesideDrive) TotalUnsoldUnits TheInterlace(GillmanHeights) UrbanResort(CairnhillRd) Dleedon(FarrerRd) TheNassim(NassimRd) MarinePoint(MarineParade) BedokTownCentreSite(BedokCentral) BishanGLSsite(BishanStreet14) YioChuKangsite(YioChuKangRd) TotalUnsoldUnits SeascapeatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) PinnacleatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits SpottiswoodeResidences(SpottiswoodePark) BedokReservoir(BedokReservoirRd) TotalUnsoldUnits Skysuites@Anson(EnggorStreet) ProjectatWestCoastRd(WestCoastRoad) RVResidences(RiverValley) RiverBay(MarThomaRd) Riviera38(MarThomaRd) TheCascadia(BukitTimahRoad) TotalUnsoldUnits ScottsSquare(ScottsRoad) Ardmore3(ArdmorePark) TotalUnsoldUnits
99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99
99 99
Freehold 99
Freehold Freehold
Unsold Units 119 122 203 178 64 212 56 752 1,517 605 190 560 490 602 207 5,876 82 620 330 307 234 94 622 45 2,334 372 41 1,324 55 150 469 650 140 3,201 113 357 470 38 640 678 209 80 248 147 102 35 821 93 84 177
DEVELOPERSLANDBANK(contd)
Developer Guocoland BtSembawang District 02 10 26 09 09 09 09 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27 03 09 09 10 10 11 23 10 15 17 19 9 9 9 10 Sentosa
TheRealDeals8September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
FrasersCentrepoint
WingTai
MCLLand
SCGlobal
Source:HDB,URA
Landbank Tenure TanjongPagarGLSwhitesite(PeckSeah/ChoonGuan) 99 LeedonResidence(LeedonHeights) 99 TheWaterline(YioChuKangRd) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits TheVermontonCairnhill(CairnhillRd) Freehold PatersonSuites(PatersonRd) Freehold StThomasWalk(StThomasWalk) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits StarHubCentre 99 FlamingoValley(SiglapRd) Freehold WaterfrontGold(BedokReservoirRd) 99 WaterfrontIsle(BedokReservoirRd) 99 Seastrand(PasirRisDrive3) 99 PasirRisGLSsite(FloraDrive) 99 BoathouseResidences(UpperSerangoonRoad) 99 EsparinaResidences(Sengkang) 99 PunggolGLSmixedsite(PunggolCentral) 99 EightCourtyards(YishunAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits AscentiaSky(Redhill) 99 HELIOSResidence(CairnhillCircle) Freehold BelleVueResidences(OxleyWalk) Freehold LeNouvelArdmore(ArdmorePark) Freehold Anderson18(ArdmorePark) Freehold L'VIV(NewtonRd) Freehold ForesqueResidences(PetirRoad) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits NOBHill(EweBoonRd) Freehold CasaNassau(EastCoastRd) Freehold PasirRisGLSsite(JalanLoyangBesar) 99 Terrasse(HougangAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits TheMarq(PatersonHill) Freehold Hilltops(CairnhillCircle) Freehold MartinNo.38(MartinRd) Freehold TheArdmore(ArdmoreRoad) Freehold SevenPalms(SentosaCove) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits GrandTotal
Unsold Units 500 261 44 805 76 25 221 322 240 239 24 110 462 380 493 7 685 187 2,806 59 69 38 43 157 42 355 763 70 65 580 230 945 38 210 28 50 32 358 19,556
SINGAPOREDISTRICTMAP
TheRealDeals8September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 BoatQuay,Chinatown,HavelockRoad,MarinaSquare,RafflesPlace,SuntecCity AnsonRoad,Chinatown,NeilRoad,RafflesPlace,ShentonWay,TanjongPagar AlexandraRoad,TiongBahru,Queenstown Keppel,MountFaber,Sentosa,TelokBlangah BuonaVista,Dover,PasirPanjang,WestCoast CityHall,HighStreet,NorthBridgeRoad BeachRoad,BencoolenRoad,Bugis,Rochor LittleIndia,FarrerPark,SerangoonRoad Cairnhill,Killiney,LeonieHill,Orchard,Oxley Balmoral,BukitTimah,GrangeRoad,Holland,OrchardBoulevard,RiverValley,TanglinRoad Chancery,BukitTimah,DunearnRoad,Newton Balestier,Moulmein,Novena,ToaPayoh PotongPasir,Macpherson Eunos,Geylang,Kembangan,PayaLebar Katong,MarineParade,Siglap,TanjongRhu Bayshore,Bedok,ChaiChee Changi,Loyang,PasirRis PasirRis,Simei,Tampines Hougang,Punggol,Sengkang AngMoKio,Bishan,BraddellRoad,Thomson Clementi,UpperBukitTimah,HumeAvenue BoonLay,Jurong,Tuas BukitBatok,ChoaChuKang,HillviewAvenue,UpperBukitTimah Kranji,LimChuKang,SungeiGedong,Tengah Admiralty,Woodlands Tagore,YioChuKang Admiralty,Sembawang,Yishun Seletar,YioChuKang
Source:expats2singapore.com
TheRealDeals
8September2011
APPENDIXI:TERMSFORPROVISIONOFREPORT,DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS Thisreport,andanyelectronicaccesstoit,isrestrictedtoandintendedonlyforclientsofKimEngResearchPte.Ltd.("KER")ora relatedentitytoKER(asthecasemaybe)whoareinstitutionalinvestors(forthepurposesofboththeSingaporeSecuritiesand FuturesAct(SFA)andtheSingaporeFinancialAdvisersAct(FAA))andwhoareallowedaccessthereto(eachan"Authorised Person")andissubjecttothetermsanddisclaimersbelow. IFYOUARENOTANAUTHORISEDPERSONORDONOTAGREETOBEBOUNDBYTHETERMSANDDISCLAIMERSSETOUTBELOW, YOUSHOULDDISREGARDTHISREPORTINITSENTIRETYANDLETKERORITSRELATEDENTITY(ASRELEVANT)KNOWTHATYOUNO LONGERWISHTORECEIVESUCHREPORTS. Thisreportprovidesinformationandopinionsasreferenceresourceonly.Thisreportisnotintendedtobeanddoesnotconstitute financialadvice,investmentadvice,tradingadviceoranyotheradvice.Itisnottobeconstruedasasolicitationoranoffertobuy orsellanysecuritiesorrelatedfinancialproducts.Theinformationandcommentariesarealsonotmeanttobeendorsementsor offeringsofanysecurities,options,stocksorotherinvestmentvehicles. Thereporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualfinancialcircumstances,needsorobjectivesofpersonswhoreceive it.Thesecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforallinvestors.Readersshouldnotrelyonanyoftheinformation hereinasauthoritativeorsubstitutefortheexerciseoftheirownskillandjudgmentinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision. Readersshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategies,andareencouragedtoseektheadviceofafinancial adviserbeforemakinganyinvestmentorenteringintoanytransactioninrelationtothesecuritiesmentionedinthisreport.The appropriatenessofanyparticularinvestmentorstrategywhetheropinedonorreferredtointhisreportorotherwisewilldepend onaninvestorsindividualcircumstancesandobjectivesandshouldbeconfirmedbysuchinvestorwithhisadvisersindependently beforeadoptionorimplementation(eitherasisorvaried).Youagreethatanyandalluseofthisreportwhichyoumake,issolelyat your own risk and without any recourse whatsoever to KER, its related and affiliate companies and/or their employees. You understandthatyouareusingthisreportATYOUROWNRISK. This report is being disseminated to or allowed access by Authorised Persons in their respective jurisdictions by the Kim Eng affiliatedentity/entitiesoperatingandcarryingonbusinessasasecuritiesdealerorfinancialadviserinthatjurisdiction(collectively orindividually,asthecontextrequires,"KimEng")whichhas,visvisarelevantAuthorisedPerson,approvedof,andissolely responsibleinthatjurisdictionfor,thecontentsofthispublicationinthatjurisdiction. KimEng,itsrelatedandaffiliatecompaniesand/ortheiremployeesmayhaveinvestmentsinsecuritiesorderivativesofsecurities ofcompaniesmentionedinthisreport,andmaytradetheminwaysdifferentfromthosediscussedinthisreport.Derivativesmay beissuedbyKimEngitsrelatedcompaniesorassociated/affiliatedpersons. KimEnganditsrelatedandaffiliatedcompaniesareinvolvedinmanybusinessesthatmayrelatetocompaniesmentionedinthis report. These businesses include market making and specialised trading, risk arbitrage and other proprietary trading, fund management,investmentservicesandcorporatefinance. Exceptwithrespectthedisclosuresofinterestmadeabove,thisreportisbasedonpublicinformation.KimEngmakesreasonable effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. The reader should also note that unless otherwise stated, none of Kim Eng or any thirdparty data providers make ANY warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liabilityforanydamagesofanykindrelatingtosuchdata. ProprietaryRightstoContent.Thereaderacknowledgesandagreesthatthisreportcontainsinformation,photographs,graphics, text,images,logos,icons,typefaces,and/orothermaterial(collectivelyContent)protectedbycopyrights,trademarks,orother proprietaryrights,andthattheserightsarevalidandprotectedinallforms,media,andtechnologiesexistingnoworhereinafter developed. The Content is the property of Kim Eng or that of third party providers of content or licensors. The compilation (meaning the collection, arrangement, and assembly) of all content on this report is the exclusive property of Kim Eng and is protected by Singapore and international copyright laws. The reader may not copy, modify, remove, delete, augment, add to, publish, transmit, participate in the transfer, license or sale of, create derivative works from, or in any way exploit any of the Content,inwholeorinpart,exceptasspecificallypermittedherein.Ifnospecificrestrictionsarestated,thereadermaymakeone copyofselectportionsoftheContent,providedthatthecopyismadeonlyforpersonal,information,andnoncommercialuseand thatthereaderdoesnotalterormodifytheContentinanyway,andmaintainanynoticescontainedintheContent,suchasall copyright notices, trademark legends, or other proprietary rights notices. Except as provided in the preceding sentence or as permittedbythefairdealingprivilegeundercopyrightlaws,thereadermaynotreproduce,ordistributeinanywayanyContent without obtaining permission of the owner of the copyright, trademark or other proprietary right. Any authorised/permitted distribution is restricted to such distribution not being in violation of the copyright of Kim Eng only and does not in any way representanendorsementofthecontentspermittedorauthorisedtobedistributedtothirdparties.
TheRealDeals
8September2011
Additionalinformationonmentionedsecuritiesisavailableonrequest. JurisdictionSpecificAdditionalDisclaimers: THISRESEARCHREPORTISSTRICTLYCONFIDENTIALTOTHERECIPIENT,MAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPRESSOROTHERMEDIA, AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA, OR PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANY KOREAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOINGLIMITATIONS. THISRESEARCHREPORTISSTRICTLYCONFIDENTIALTOTHERECIPIENT,MAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPRESSOROTHERMEDIA, AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO MALAYSIA OR PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANY MALAYSIAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIESLAWSINMALAYSIA.BYACCEPTINGTHISREPORT,YOUAGREETOBEBOUNDBYTHEFOREGOINGLIMITATIONS. Withoutprejudicetotheforegoing,thereaderistonotethatadditionaldisclaimers,warningsorqualificationsmayapplyifthe readerisreceivingoraccessingthisreportinorfromotherthanSingapore. AnalystCertification: The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthereport. 2011 Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproducedordistributedinanymannerwithoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofKimEngResearchPte.Ltd.KimEngResearchPte. Ltd.acceptsnoliabilitywhatsoeverfortheactionsofthirdpartiesinthisrespect.
StephanieWong CEO,KimEngResearch