THEREALDEALS

Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

Freeholdfor<$600psf
Withdevelopersconstantlypushingthepriceboundaryfornewhomes,howareresalepricesmeasuringup?Ofthe 8 quarters since the property market bottomed, prices of completed homes (proxy for resale homes) have rebounded more strongly for 6 quarters, recovering 52.4% since the trough compared to 39.3% for homes under construction(proxyfornewhomes).Thestrongreboundintheresalemarketgivesbuyersonelessreasontochase afterprices.Inthisissue,wesiftoutafewcompletedfreeholdpropertiesthatrecentlysoldatlessthan$600psf withaquantumofabout$1m.

The narrowing price gap between new and resale homes is probably most evident in the pricing for Boathouse Residences,arecentlylaunchedprojectinnortheastSingaporebyajointventurebetweenFrasersCentrepoint,Far EastandSekisuiHouse.NonSOHOunitsatBoathouseResidencesarepricedatabout$850psfwhileitsnextdoor RioVista(completedin2004)had7unitssoldinJulyandAugustatanaverageof$790psf,suggestingapremiumof only8%.

Whilehighresalepricesmayputoffbuyinginterest,webelievecompletedfreeholdunitspricedbelow$600psfare attractive.Thereplacementcostofsuchunitsisatleast$650psf,comprisinglandandtodaysconstructioncostsof $350psfand$300psfrespectively.BasedonGLStenderresultsoverthepast2years,99yrleaseholdlandinthe outskirtsofSingaporecostabove$300psf.Evenatthepeakofthefinancialcrisis,a99yrsiteatTanahMerahsold for$282psfppr.Constructioncosthasalwaysbeenontherise.Asanexample,thebuildingcontractforHedgesPark wasawardedfor$330psfinJune2011,comparedtoTheGalenearby,whichwasawardedfor$270psfinOctober 2009. Freeholdunitsrecentlysoldforlessthan$600psf

Project BallotaParkCondo RisGrandeur NovenaCourt EdelweissParkCondo Veranda EverLodge RisGrandeur SinChuanGarden CrystalMansions MerlotVille EdelweissParkCondo TheSunflower RisGrandeur EdelweissParkCondo TaipanJade BallotaParkCondo BallotaParkCondo ProsperoVille

Area (sqft) 1,862 3,111 861 2,465 2,099 1,776 3,703 1,389 1,259 1,959 2,465 1,625 4,144 3,197 3,175 1,679 1,862 2,174

Transaction Price 1,088,000 1,850,000 500,000 1,450,000 1,240,000 950,000 2,100,000 800,000 738,000 1,055,000 1,430,000 938,000 2,050,000 1,750,000 1,800,000 860,000 1,052,000 1,050,000

UnitPrice ($psf) 584 595 581 588 591 535 567 576 586 539 580 577 495 547 567 512 565 483

Contract date Aug11 Aug11 Jul11 Jul11 Jul11 Jul11 Jul11 Jul11 Jul11 Jul11 Jun11 Jun11 Jun11 Jun11 May11 May11 May11 May11

TOP 2000 2005 1970 2006 2004 1999 2005 1983 1992 2002 2006 2000 2005 2006 2005 2000 2000 2002

District 17 18 11 17 15 14 18 14 14 15 17 14 18 17 15 17 17 15

Planning area PasirRis PasirRis Novena PasirRis Bedok Geylang PasirRis Bedok Geylang Bedok PasirRis Geylang PasirRis PasirRis Geylang PasirRis PasirRis Bedok

Source:URA

Co.RegNo:198700034E MICA(P):090/11/2009

SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS

FREEHOLDGEMS

TheRealDeals1September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Threefreeholdprojectshadmultipleunitssoldunder$600psf.TheyareBallotaParkCondo,EdelweissPark Condo and Ris Grandeur. As we will see, the only freehold project offering units below $600 psf with a quantumofabout$1misBallotaParkCondo.Unitsfromtheothertwoprojectsrecentlysoldunder$600 psfwereinexcessof2,000sqft(upto4,144sqft). BallotaParkCondo BallotaParkCondositswithintheAHcollectionof 1000 residentialprojectsalongFloraDrive(seepast 900 issueAlphabethomesdated7April2011). 800 DevelopedbyCDL/HongLeong,theprojectwas 700 launchedin1996atanaveragepriceof$670psf.It wascompletedin2000.CaveatdatafromURA 600 showthat20unitschangedhandssincethestart 500 oftheyearatanaveragepriceof$625psf.Ofthe 400 20resaletransactions,6wereforunitsfrom1,679 300 1,862sqft,whichwereallsoldunder$600psf withthelowestat$512psf.Theaveragecostof 200 suchunitisjustabove$1m. 17Sep96 22Aug01 27Jul06 01Jul11 Source:URA EdelweissCondo EdelweissCondoalsositswithintheAHcollection 1,000 ofresidentialprojectsalongFloraDrive.The 900 projectwaslaunchedbackin2002atanaverage 800 priceof$483psf.Itwasthefifthtocomplete 700 amongtheprojectsintheAHcollection,in2006. Wefind30resaletransactionswithcaveatlodged 600 in2011,atanaveragepriceof$780psf.4units 500 weresoldunder$600psfbutthesewereunits 400 above2,450sqft(seechart).Strippingoutthese 300 largeunits,averagepriceachievedsincethestart 200 oftheyearis$820psf.
10Sep02 25Aug05 09Aug08 25Jul11
Source:URA

RisGrandeur
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 14Sep04 23Dec06 01Apr09 10Jul11
Source:URA

RisGrandeurislocatedatPasirRis,oppositethe fullysoldBelysa(EC)thatwasjustlaunched recently.TheprojectwasdevelopedbyFrasers CentrepointandreceiveditsTOPin2005.Current resalepricesarearound$850psf,althougha handfulofunitsabove2,800sqftsoldintheresale marketforlessthan$600psf(seechart),costing about$1.9meach.

MARKETSNAPSHOT

TheRealDeals1September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

UpcomingVVIPLaunches JeanNouvelResidences(District9)
A156unitfreeholddevelopmenttobejointly developedbyCDLandWingTai,nestledinthe exclusiveArdmoreParkarea.

PropertyPriceIndices

Index LevelChange SRPIOverall(July11) 166.6 +0.2% RESIComposite(2Q11)4.5 0.5 URAPPI(2Q11) 203.0 +2.0% HDBResale(2Q11)180.3 +3.1%

*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are probablynotaVVIP.Waitforthepubliclaunch.

GovernmentLandSales(GLS)
RecentlyAwardedSites Buangkok Drive / Sengkang East Drive (58.6k sqm, 550 units) Awarded to Qingdao for $247m ($391 psf ppr) Woodlands Ave 2 / Rosewood Dr (38.3k sqm, 390 units) Awarded to Fragrance / Aspial for $151.5m ($367.2psfppr) FloraDrive(37.5ksqm,380units)AwardedtoFrasers Centrepointfor$131.38m($325.1psfppr) West Coast Link / West Coast Crescent (35.5k sqm, 360units)AwardedtoFarEastfor$175.8m,($460.6psf ppr) ChoaChuKangRoad/PhoenixRoad(32.3ksqm,335 units) Awarded to Far East and China Construction for $142.8m($410.5psfppr) Punggol Way / Punggol Field, EC (75.5k sqm, 720 units)AwardedtoFrasersCentrepointandKeongHong Constructionfor$219.5($270psfppr) Upper Serangoon Road / Pheng Geck Avenue (30.3k sqm, 330 units) Awarded to Tuan Sing for $185.2m ($567.3psfppr) Serangoon Garden Way (28.4k sqm, 80 units) AwardedtoCDL/HongLeongfor$105m($343.5psf) ConfirmedList(RecentlyOpenforTender) Punggol Field / Punggol Walk (48.8k sqm, 550 units) Tenderclosingon1September Upper Serangoon Crescent / Upper Serangoon Road (86.2ksqm,860units)Tenderclosingon7September ReserveList(RecentlyOpenforTender) JalanJurongKechil(14.2ksqm,240units) BuangkokDr/SengkangCentral(55ksqm,495units) TanahMerahKechilRd(39.2ksqm,470units) StirlingRoadA(44.5ksqm,445units) StirlingRoadB(44.1sqm,445units) EliasRd/PasirRisDr3(32.7ksqm,295units) HillviewAve(35.4ksqm,405units) SengkangSquare(64.4ksqm,710units) Upper Serangoon View/ Upper Serangoon Road, EC (43.3ksqm,420units)
Source:HDB,URA

Freehold<$600psfand<$1m
Project NovenaCourt EverLodge SinChuanGarden CrystalMansions TheSunflower BallotaParkCondo SembawangCottage Bougainvilla WingFongMansions CanberlinLodge SunflowerCourt WingFongCourt AstonLodge BallotaParkCondo CrystalLodge TheTaipan TorieviewMansions AstonLodge WingFongMansions WingFongMansions ShelfordRegency WingFongMansions WingFongMansions TheStradia
Source:URA

Month Jul11 Jul11 Jul11 Jul11 Jun11 May11 May11 May11 Apr11 Apr11 Apr11 Apr11 Mar11 Mar11 Mar11 Mar11 Mar11 Feb11 Feb11 Feb11 Jan11 Jan11 Jan11 Jan11

Price ($psf) 581 535 576 586 577 512 435 588 595 585 564 596 597 580 504 559 570 595 590 576 546 586 580 596

Planning area Novena Geylang Bedok Geylang Geylang PasirRis Mandai Geylang Geylang Geylang Geylang Geylang Geylang PasirRis Geylang Bedok Geylang Geylang Geylang Geylang BktTimah Geylang Geylang Hougang

PropertyStocks
Name CapitaLand CityDev HoBee HPL KepLand SingLand UOL Wheelock WingTai

Price 2.57 10.41 1.36 2.05 3.05 6.38 4.59 1.66 1.365

RNAV 3.97 13.27 2.76 4.41 5.25 10.42 N.A. N.A. 3.03

Disc/ Prem to RNAV 35% 22% 51% 54% 42% 39% N.A. N.A. 55%

Disc/ Premto NTA/share* NTA/share 3.18 19% 7.18 45% 2.13 36% 2.63 22% 2.72 12% 10.57 40% 6.39 28% 2.32 28% 2.25 39%

N.A.=NoCoverage*Asatlatestreported

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK
Developer District 06 09 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 23 23 Sentosa 01 02 04 04 04 04 19 22 03 09 10 10 15 16 20 26 Sentosa Sentosa 02 16 02 05 09 12 12 21 09 10

TheRealDeals1September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

CityDev

KepLand

CapitaLand

HoBee UOL Allgreen Wheelock

Landbank SouthBeach(BeachRoad) Futura(LeonieRoad) BoulevardHotel(CuscadenRoad) LuckyTower(GrangeRoad) BuckleyClassique(BuckleyRoad) HedgesPark(FloraRoad) NVResidences(PasirRis) PasirRisGrove,parcel3+stateland(PasirRis) PasirRisDrive8,parcels4+5(PasirRis) Tampines/UppChangiRdNorth H2OResidences(SengkangWestAve) BartleyRoadGLS(BartleyRoad) ChoaChukangGLS(EC)(ChoaChuKangDrive) SegarRoadGLS(EC)(SegarRoad) ResidencesatW(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits MarinaBaySuites(MarinaBay) Keppel&GETowerssite(TanjongPagar) ReflectionsatKeppelBay(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot3(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot4(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot5(KeppelBay) SengkangGLSsite(SengkangSquare) TheLakesideResidences(LakesideDrive) TotalUnsoldUnits TheInterlace(GillmanHeights) UrbanResort(CairnhillRd) Dleedon(FarrerRd) TheNassim(NassimRd) MarinePoint(MarineParade) BedokTownCentreSite(BedokCentral) BishanGLSsite(BishanStreet14) YioChuKangsite(YioChuKangRd) TotalUnsoldUnits SeascapeatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) PinnacleatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits SpottiswoodeResidences(SpottiswoodePark) BedokReservoir(BedokReservoirRd) TotalUnsoldUnits Skysuites@Anson(EnggorStreet) ProjectatWestCoastRd(WestCoastRoad) RVResidences(RiverValley) RiverBay(MarThomaRd) Riviera38(MarThomaRd) TheCascadia(BukitTimahRoad) TotalUnsoldUnits ScottsSquare(ScottsRoad) Ardmore3(ArdmorePark) TotalUnsoldUnits

Tenure 99 Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99 99 99 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 Freehold Freehold 99 99 Freehold

99 99

Freehold 99

99 Freehold 999 999 999 Freehold

Freehold Freehold

Unsold Units 119 122 203 178 64 212 56 752 1,517 605 190 560 490 602 207 5,876 82 620 330 307 234 94 622 45 2,334 372 41 1,324 55 150 469 650 140 3,201 113 357 470 38 640 678 209 80 248 147 102 35 821 93 84 177

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK(contd)
Developer Guocoland BtSembawang District 02 10 26 09 09 09 09 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27 03 09 09 10 10 11 23 10 15 17 19 9 9 9 10 Sentosa

TheRealDeals1September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

FrasersCentrepoint

WingTai

MCLLand

SCGlobal

Source:HDB,URA

Landbank Tenure TanjongPagarGLSwhitesite(PeckSeah/ChoonGuan) 99 LeedonResidence(LeedonHeights) 99 TheWaterline(YioChuKangRd) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits TheVermontonCairnhill(CairnhillRd) Freehold PatersonSuites(PatersonRd) Freehold StThomasWalk(StThomasWalk) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits StarHubCentre 99 FlamingoValley(SiglapRd) Freehold WaterfrontGold(BedokReservoirRd) 99 WaterfrontIsle(BedokReservoirRd) 99 Seastrand(PasirRisDrive3) 99 PasirRisGLSsite(FloraDrive) 99 BoathouseResidences(UpperSerangoonRoad) 99 EsparinaResidences(Sengkang) 99 PunggolGLSmixedsite(PunggolCentral) 99 EightCourtyards(YishunAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits AscentiaSky(Redhill) 99 HELIOSResidence(CairnhillCircle) Freehold BelleVueResidences(OxleyWalk) Freehold LeNouvelArdmore(ArdmorePark) Freehold Anderson18(ArdmorePark) Freehold L'VIV(NewtonRd) Freehold ForesqueResidences(PetirRoad) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits NOBHill(EweBoonRd) Freehold CasaNassau(EastCoastRd) Freehold PasirRisGLSsite(JalanLoyangBesar) 99 Terrasse(HougangAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits TheMarq(PatersonHill) Freehold Hilltops(CairnhillCircle) Freehold MartinNo.38(MartinRd) Freehold TheArdmore(ArdmoreRoad) Freehold SevenPalms(SentosaCove) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits GrandTotal

Unsold Units 500 261 44 805 76 25 221 322 240 239 24 110 462 380 493 7 685 187 2,806 59 69 38 43 157 42 355 763 70 65 580 230 945 38 210 28 50 32 358 19,556

SINGAPOREDISTRICTMAP

TheRealDeals1September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 BoatQuay,Chinatown,HavelockRoad,MarinaSquare,RafflesPlace,SuntecCity AnsonRoad,Chinatown,NeilRoad,RafflesPlace,ShentonWay,TanjongPagar AlexandraRoad,TiongBahru,Queenstown Keppel,MountFaber,Sentosa,TelokBlangah BuonaVista,Dover,PasirPanjang,WestCoast CityHall,HighStreet,NorthBridgeRoad BeachRoad,BencoolenRoad,Bugis,Rochor LittleIndia,FarrerPark,SerangoonRoad Cairnhill,Killiney,LeonieHill,Orchard,Oxley Balmoral,BukitTimah,GrangeRoad,Holland,OrchardBoulevard,RiverValley,TanglinRoad Chancery,BukitTimah,DunearnRoad,Newton Balestier,Moulmein,Novena,ToaPayoh PotongPasir,Macpherson Eunos,Geylang,Kembangan,PayaLebar Katong,MarineParade,Siglap,TanjongRhu Bayshore,Bedok,ChaiChee Changi,Loyang,PasirRis PasirRis,Simei,Tampines Hougang,Punggol,Sengkang AngMoKio,Bishan,BraddellRoad,Thomson Clementi,UpperBukitTimah,HumeAvenue BoonLay,Jurong,Tuas BukitBatok,ChoaChuKang,HillviewAvenue,UpperBukitTimah Kranji,LimChuKang,SungeiGedong,Tengah Admiralty,Woodlands Tagore,YioChuKang Admiralty,Sembawang,Yishun Seletar,YioChuKang

Source:expats2singapore.com

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1September2011

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