COMET ELENIN AND EARTHQUAKES PART I

Heads-up in Late September

Last updated 2011/9/18

INTRODUCTION
Google returns five million pages and 10,000 YouTube video about Comet Elenin. Whats so special about this comet? We can only provide empirical data of Elenin and mega quakes, but we cannot evaluate the real threat of Elenin. It could be either a harmless false alarm or an imminent hazard. Errors or suggestions? Tell us please: elenin.info@gmail.com

Copy, email, and share this document freely. Latest update can be found in http://sites.google.com/site/elenininfo/
Disclaimer: Todays science cannot predict earthquake accurately. Please follow authoritative earthquake info from the Government.

AGENDA
Past Earthquake Patterns Correlation between Elenin and Mega Quakes Future Dates That Elenin May Influence Earth How to Prepare FAQ

PAST EARTHQUAKE PATTERNS

EARTHQUAKES IN1900-2008
What caused the upward trend in the past decades?

Elenin is not the only reason, but its a piece in the jigsaw puzzle.

(Source)

RICHTER MAGNITUDE SCALE

Logarithmic scale. One more magnitude means 31.6 times of energy released. M7 releases 30 times more energy than M6 M8 releases 1000 times more energy than M6 The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 is M7.7-M8.2 M9 releases 30000 times more energy than M6 The 1960 Valdivia Earthquake is M9.5, which is multiple times stronger than M9. The tsunami reached Japan

Source: http://www.jimstonefreelance.com/

HISTORIC RECORDS
Use USGS database to search past earthquakes http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/epic/ M8.6+ only happened 4 times. None happened in the thirty years between 1973 and 2003 2004/12/26 M9.1 2005/03/28 M8.6 2010/02/27 M8.8 2011/03/11 M9.0 M8+ 30 times, 0.8 times a year (avg.) Earthquakes around the world between 1973 and Aug 2011

M7+ 534 times, 1.2 times a month (avg.)

M6+ 5212 times (until Mar 2011), 12 times a month (avg.)

M5-6 are very common. They usually happen in sparsely populated areas and are not reported. In a global scale, M7 is uncommon and dangerous (once a month). M8 is even rarer (once a year). M8.6 is epic and may not happen within decades!!

EARTHQUAKES SWARM IN THE RING OF FIRE AFTER TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE

Live earthquake map: http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/ (Snapshot on Sep 8th) The Pacific Plate is unstable during the past six months. Small-to-medium earthquakes swarm in California, Alaska, Japan, Indonesia, and Vanuatu. Its recommended to check this web page periodically.

CORRELATION BETWEEN ELENIN AND MEGA QUAKES

ELENINS PHOTO ON SEP 2

(Photographer: John Glossop)

BASIC FACTS OF ELENIN

Comet Elenin (C/2010 X1) is a long-period comet discovered by Russian astronomer Leonid Elenin in Dec 2010. The inclination is only 1.839, which means the orbit of Elenin is nearly coincident with the ecliptic plane. Therefore, Sun, Earth, and Elenin can be aligned in a nearly straight line. The perihelion is on Sep 10, 2011 at 0.48 AU from Sun. (1 AU is approx. the mean EarthSun distance)

The eccentricity was larger than 1 when entering inner solar system. In other words, Elenin was not a periodic comet at first.
Elenin was hit by CME in mid-August. Some astronomers believe its disintegrating, which is quite common among comets. However, Elenin is still visible in early September. We need to wait until Sep 23 to find out with SOHO image. Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2010_X1

INCLINATION

The ecliptic plane

ORBIT OF ELENIN
NASA JPL Small Object Browser can show the orbits of known comets Orbit diagram of Elenin: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C%2F2010%20X1;orb=1;cad=1

(Java must be installed)

THE LAST THREE ALIGNMENT BETWEEN EARTH, SUN, AND ELENIN

You can use NASA JPL page to find previous alignment dates of Elenin, Earth, and Sun on PC.
Earth-Sun-Elenin angle is tiny but not 0 because Elenins inclination is not 0

Alignment

Earth-Sun- Timing Elenin Angle

7.5 Nearly perfect Nearly perfect

Elenin-Sun Distance
7.03 AU

Earthquake

Location

2010/2/27 Elenin-Earth-Sun

M8.8 (the 7th

greatest in history)

Chile

2010/9/4

Elenin-Sun-Earth

~180

5.25 AU

M7.0

Christchurch, NZ

2011/3/11

Elenin-Earth-Sun

6.4

4 days earlier
(aligned on Mar 15)

3.14 AU

M9.0 (the 4th

greatest in history)

Japan

2010/2/27 CHILE EARTHQUAKE, THE 7 TH GREATEST IN HISTORY

2010/9/4 EARTHQUAKE IN CHRISTCHURCH

2011/3/11 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE, THE 4TH GREATEST IN HISTORY. EARTH KNOCKED OFF AXIS 10CM

JUST A COINCIDENCE?
M7 earthquake happens once a month on average, so the M7 quake in Christchurch in Sep 2010 might be a coincidence. However, only four M8.6+ earthquakes happened in the last forty years. On the last two occasions when Elenin-Earth-Sun formed a line, M8.8 and M9.0 happened, which were also the 7th and 4th greatest quakes in history. Could it be a coincidence, too? If earthquakes were merely stochastic events, the probability of a M8.6+ quake happening within a specific week is less than 1/500. Rough estimation of the probability of Chile and Tohoku mega quakes on Elenins alignment is less than 1/250000 or 0.0004%. (The calculation is not rigorous, just to give you some rough idea.)

HOW TO EXPLAIN IT, THEN?

Warning: Statistical correlations do not guarantee causalities. They might be statistical fallacies or coincidences.
But it doesnt imply all unexplained correlations are pseudoscience! For example, public health researches usually focus on discovering statistical correlations. In material science, tons of phenomenon are too complex to analyze even we know all the underlying physical laws.

A popular and plausible hypothesis is : Elenin interacts with Sun. Its observed that comets induce solar activity such as CME and solar flares. Powerful solar activities may trigger earthquakes then. But no peer-reviewed paper elaborating this theory persuasively So Elenins correlation with mega quakes could still be a BIG coincidence!

If Elenin doesnt disintegrate, we shall know the answer by the end of September

FUTURE DATES THAT ELENIN MAY INFLUENCE EARTH

FUTURE DATES OF ALIGNMENTS

Be alerted that Elenin was 7.03 AU and 3.14 AU away from the Sun when Chile and Tohoku quakes happened. During the next two alignments in Sep and Nov 2011, Elenin will be much closer to the Sun! Moreover, the Earth-Sun-Elenin angle will be smaller. Earthquake does not necessarily happen on the exact alignment date. For example, the Tohoku Earthquake happened on Mar 11, four days earlier than the alignment date (Mar 15th). The time frames to watch are one week before and after the following dates. Elenins influence will fade out from 2013
Date Alignment Earth-Sun-Elenin Angle Elenin-Sun Distance Remarks

2011/9/26 ~ 2011/9/28
2011/11/23 2012/6/18 2012/12/26

Sun-Elenin-Earth

5.5 (Sep 26th)

0.61 AU

Elenin very close to Sun

Elenin-Earth-Sun Elenin-Sun-Earth Elenin-Earth-Sun

5.9 ~180 9.7

1.58 AU 4.29 AU 6.23 AU

Around Thanksgiving (U.S.) No previous mega quake under this alignment Elenin is further away

2011/9/26 ELENIN IS IN BETWEEN EARTH AND SUN

2011/11/23 ELENIN IS FURTHER, BUT STILL CLOSER THAN ON MAR 11

2012/6/18

2012/12/26 MAYBE THE LAST INFLUENCE FROM ELENIN

OTHER RELEVANT DATES: 2011/11/1 ~ 2011/11/9

Earth will pass Elenins tail on Nov 1~7. When Earth moves through the meteoroid stream left from the passage of Elenin, meteor shower may occur.
Meteor shower is usually due to earth passing trails of comets. For example, the Leonids is caused by Comet Tempel-Tuttle.

Whats different this time is Elenin has very small inclination. Elenins orbit is nearly coincident with the ecliptic plane, which is uncommon among comets.
The last low-inclination comet passing by was Comet Lulin, but its orbit didnt intersect with Earths orbit.

On Nov 8-9, another asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass between Earth and Moon. The closest approach to Earth and the Moon will be 0.0022 AU and 0.0016 AU respectively. We cannot judge whether early November will be dangerous. This info is for reference.

2011/11/1~11/7 ELENIN PASSING ELENINS TAIL. METEOR SHOWER MAY APPEAR

HOW TO PREPARE

WORST-CASE SCENARIO
We cannot predict whether, when, and where Elenin will cause earthquakes! Although earthquakes are formidable, the damage is typically restricted to local area. Other possible damage from Elenin include: Tsunami

1. Wide-area damage
2. Tsunami can destroy infrastructures such as ports, nuclear and thermal power plants, oil refineries and wells. If energy and transportation are disrupted in big agricultural or manufacturer exporters, chain effects may impact global price level and people in poor countries!

Volcanoes they are active in 2011

Solar storms disruption in communication, satellites, and electrical grids
On Sep 9 (one day before Elenins perihelion), mass blackout hit California, Arizona, and Mexico. The official story is artificial mistakes, but the timing coincides with earlier X -class solar flares

Meteorites when Earth pass Elenins orbit in early November

(X-class solar flares and Elenins positions)

DONT PANIC. OBSERVE FIRST!

(A) Observe if Elenin will disintegrate Until the date of writing (Sep 15), there is no reliable proof of Elenin being disintegrated. If Elenin does disintegrate, you can Google Elenin Disintegrated to find related online articles. We may need to wait until Sep 23 to find out with SOHO image. But it doesnt mean Elenin will become harmless. Assume Elenin interacts with the Sun with electromagnetic force. Even if Elenin breaks up, the charged debris will still follow the same orbit. Some net electric charge may be neutralized but wont totally disappear

(B) Observe the Sun

We guess Elenin influences the Earth indirectly through the Sun, so the Sun may show early signs before earthquakes actually happen. Two days before the Tohoku Earthquake, NOAA D-Rap forecast of ionosphere shows rare abnormal level

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/Global.png
Its highly recommended to check this web page periodically near the Elenins alignment dates! (C) Make Preparations

D-RAP AT NORMAL LEVEL

(Screenshot on 2011/9/4) The level is normal but above average level (solar activity is fiercer recently). This graph shows all black most of the time. When the Sun is active, it may show red color near the North and South Poles, but mega quakes do not necessarily occur at this level.

2011-09-04 Normal but slightly higher 2011-06-08 The Sun was active, but no mega quake

ABNORMAL D-RAP LEVEL BEFORE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE (I)

On Mar 9, Earth-directed X-class solar flare occurred Even part of the equator showed red color (this is really rare)

ABNORMAL D-RAP LEVEL BEFORE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE (II)

On Mar 10, the influence of Sun faded. Mega quake happened on the next day.

MAKE PREPARATIONS
Be alerted if D-Rap shows abnormal! Following advices from the Government (US: http://www.ready.gov/) If you live near a seismic zone Get a Japanese-style earthquake go bag Store food and water at home
(Earthquake go bag)

Avoid unnecessary travel hard to react in unfamiliar places, and solar storms may disrupt traffic plans Stay away from the coastal areas High Tsunami hazard? Low-elevation coastal areas, no mountains in between the cities and the sea.
Tsunami also depends on the seabed formation, and not all coastal areas are vulnerable. Geology is a highly specialized subject. Please consult the authority.

Fill the tank. Plan routes to high places with less traffic jams. Pay attention to tsunami warning systems. US NOAA Tsunami Info: http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov/prepare.html

Be ready mentally - Hope for the best and prepare for the worst!

USE GOOGLE EARTH TO CHECK ELEVATION

Use Google Earth to find out the sea level around the globe Ex: In San Francisco, the elevation of coastal areas is around 10 m. There are no mountains in between the city and the sea. Mt. Sutro is 200 m above the sea level.

SEISMIC ZONE IN THE US

The following USGS map shows seismic hazard in the US Remark: We try not to discuss rumors and conspiracies in this document, but there are too many rumors about the New Madrid Fault Line (including the areas along the Mississippi River) on the internet. Please do some Google search if you live near these areas.

FAQ

FAQ (I)
Q: Will Elenin eclipse the Sun for three days or end the world in 2012? (By Elenin only) highly unlikely Q: Some people say Elenin is an UFO fleet? The main purpose of such news report is to discredit all theories about Elenin Q: Is Elenin Nibiru or Planet X? No. We are not aware of any public information proving where Nibiru / Planet X is. But the features of Elenin (such as orbit and period) do not match the legend We believe Nibiru may exist according to some sources, but we dont know when it will appear. Maybe soon, maybe many years later. Q: Will Elenin crash into the Earth? No. They are far apart, but Elenin may bring meteorites to the Earth in early November. Moreover, asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass between Earth and Moon on Nov 8-9.

FAQ (II)
Q: Whats Elenins mass? No official data is available. Some people believe Elenin has tiny mass by observing a meteorite passing by it (Source). But the observation is not reproduced and verified by others.

Q: Experts say comets are too small to impact Earth and Sun? With a pair of protons, electromagnetic interaction is near forty magnitudes stronger than gravitational force. (more than one trillion trillion trillion times stronger!)

Because planets are electrically neutral, gravitational force alone decides the orbits of planets. EM force is not involved.
Science today has not fully understood comets, which may not be electrically neutral. If Elenin does origin from the Oort Cloud, and pass thousands of AU before entering the inner solar system, it may be charged.

[Case Study] Comet NEAT near the Sun in 2003 (details are omitted)
Comparing the mass of a comet and the Sun is like comparing an ant and a mountain. How do we explain a small ant influenced a mountain if considering gravitation only?
(When Comet NEAT approached Sun in 2003. Source: Thunderbolt.info)

FAQ (III)
Q: There are so many comets. Why dont them cause earthquakes? Firstly, we dont know the mass of Elenin Even if Elenin has tiny mass, it is still an unique comet: long-period, perihelion distance less than 1 AU, small inclination. There is no similar comet in the past 100 years Moreover, hydrogen cyanide (HCN) is found in Elenin. Many (but not all) comets have HCN. HCN is a good dielectric and may increase the capacitance of Comet Elenin. There are around forty significant long-period and non-periodic comets in the past 100 years. We only know Comet Elenin, Comet Lulin, and C/1980 E1 have inclination less than 5 However, Comet Lulin has perihelion distance more than 1 AU and doesnt comprise hydrogen cyanide. C/1980 E1 is even further away from the Sun. Q: I dont believe it. Why dont the news media report it? We dont discuss conspiracy theories here, or we can list more coincidences. For example, if you search right keywords in Google, you may find dozens of important conferences/symposiums from diverse domains will be held at one of the safest cities in the US all in late September.

REFERENCES
Photos of Elenin: http://www.aerith.net/comet/catalog/2010X1/pictures.html Leonid Elenin on possible disintegration of Elenin: http://spaceobs.org/en/2011/09/03/comet-elenin-the-final-prospect/ USGS Earthquake Hazards Program: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ New Madrid Seismic Zone: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone Planet X Townhall forum of mythical celestial objects: http://planetxtownhall.com/ Marshall Masterss video about Elenin (recommended): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GMILqaYX3Y Solarham.com - watch solar activities: http://www.solarham.com/ Thunderbolt.info introduces the Electric Universe theory, controversial but maybe partially correct: http://www.thunderbolts.info/