Northwestern Debate Institute

2011 Solvency advocate? - Demonstrate feasibility in 3 years - All phases of flight - Special tech taskforce - Fund through Defense Advanced Research project agency - Team from government and industry with proper funds - Cost to develop demonstration/limited test bed- 3-5 billion - Handed off to air force in 3-5 years - Pebbles have multiple opportunities to kill in all 3 stages

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Pfaltzgraff and Van Cleave et al. 9, Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. is Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International
Security Studies The Fletcher School, Tufts University President, Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, and Dr. William R. Van Cleave is Professor Emeritus Department of Defense and Strategic Studies Missouri State University, with Ambassador Henry F. Cooper Chairman, High Frontier former Director Strategic Defense Initiative Organization former Chief U.S. Negotiator to the Geneva Defense and Space Talks, 2009, Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, & the Twenty-First Century The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, www.ifpa.org/pdf/IWG2009.pdf, p. 129 Because space-based defenses offer the widest coverage and largest number of intercept opportunities, and little if anything has been done to take advantage of space defense technologies that were mature 15 years ago, a new initiative is required to bring that technology and its potential up to date. We recommend a streamlined technology-limited development program based on the Brilliant Pebbles program to demonstrate within three years the feasibility of a constellation of space-based interceptors to intercept ballistic missiles in all phases of flight boost, midcourse, and terminal. To avoid conflicts with existing acquisition programs focused on ground- and sea-based defenses while moving forward as rapidly as possible, this effort should be undertaken by a special task force of competent technical personnel experienced in developing pioneering technology. Consequently, the United States should: Fund DARPA[Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency], which specializes in the innovation of defense systems through advanced technology, to assemble a small team charged with rapidly reviving and deploying a modern spacebased kinetic-energy interceptor system in the manner of past successful programs such as the development of the first ICBM and the Polaris missile. Of particular importance is a small, empowered, technically competent management and engineering team from government and industry, fully supported with needed funds. Building on the Brilliant Pebbles technologies created in the late 1980s and early 1990s as well as advanced technologies produced since then in both the military and commercial sectors, the DARPA team should develop and rigorously test within three years a space-based system to perform boost, midcourse, and terminal interception tests against ballistic missiles of several ranges. The anticipated cost of this three-year effort, which could leave in place a space test bed with limited intercept capability, is $3 billion to $5 billion. Direct the Air Force Space Command to work with DARPA to develop the operational concept for a constellation of space-based interceptors, with an anticipated handoff to the Air Force in three to five years of an evolving capability that can be integrated into U.S. Strategic Command s global architecture. Using an event-driven procurement strategy deploy a Brilliant Pebbles twenty-first century space-defense system with the goal of an initial capability in 2012. Because of the number that would be deployed, Brilliant Pebbles would have multiple opportunities for interception, increasing chances of a successful kill in either the boost or midcourse phase, or even in the early terminal phase. These characteristics stand in sharp contrast to the GMD ground-based interceptors which, in the limited numbers presently planned, may not provide more than one intercept opportunity. Moreover, Brilliant Pebbles interceptors are small (1.42.3 kilograms and approximately the size of a watermelon), making them difficult to detect and thus target; they also contain an inherent self-defense capability that further adds to their survivability. Brilliant Pebbles was approximately midway through engineering and manufacturing development before it was cancelled, suggesting that with the needed political will, an updated system could be developed and deployed in a timely fashion. For example, based on the fully approved Defense Acquisition Board plan from 1991, 1,000 Brilliant Pebbles interceptors could be developed, tested, deployed, and operated for 20 years in a low-tomoderate risk eventdriven acquisition program for $11 billion in 1989 dollars, or $19.1 billion in inflation-adjusted 2008 dollars.

Possible testing to show we have the tech - Make a test bed to show it works - Could be expanded - 5 year timeframe for initial operations - Old tech was used for a program by Motorola- we can learn from that to make a new program

Pfaltzgraff and Van Cleave et al. 9, Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. is Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International
Security Studies The Fletcher School, Tufts University President, Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, and Dr. William R. Van Cleave is Professor Emeritus Department of Defense and Strategic Studies Missouri State University, with Ambassador Henry F. Cooper Chairman, High Frontier former Director Strategic Defense Initiative Organization former Chief U.S. Negotiator to the Geneva Defense

Northwestern Debate Institute

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and Space Talks, 2009, Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, & the Twenty-First Century The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, www.ifpa.org/pdf/IWG2009.pdf, p. 28 One feasible option for testing and initial deployment of a revived space-based interceptor system based on Brilliant Pebbles would be to deploy approximately 40 to 120 interceptors for a space-system test bed analogous to the ground- and sea-based test beds. After demonstrating feasibility by testing against missiles of all ranges in all possible phases of their flight, this test bed would have a limited capability and could be expanded to become part of a fully capable defensive constellation. In 1991 initial operations were expected to be feasible in approximately five years; however at that time there was an in-place acquisition program with two competing contractor teams. An appropriate Brilliant Pebbles team could be reconstituted and meet an approximate five-year target date for initial operations. Motorola used commercially available technology to build and begin operating its 66- satellite constellation Iridium communications system in roughly five years for approximately $5 billion. Iridium, now used by the Pentagon for communications to remote locations, exploited many of the technologies, operational concepts, and acquisition management approaches that had been planned for Brilliant Pebbles before it was cancelled in 1993. Consequently, the operational issues demonstrated by the Iridium experience would be valuable in reconstituting a viable Brilliant Pebbles acquisition program, provided personnel with that experience were included on the team.

Use prototypes Bmd is a public good/private sector fails coalitions deter war states wont attack if they know the international community could block attacks we should start with prototypes and gauge effectiveness before expanding privatizing fails for national security purposes focus on near term

Frederick 9- Lt Col Lorinda A. Frederick, USAF, Master of Airpower Art and Science, School of Advanced Air and Space Studies,
Air & Space Power Journal Fall 2009 Volume XXIII, No. 3, No. AFRP 10-1, http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj09/fal09/frederick.html#frederick Cooperation on missile defense initiatives could increase global stability. By banding together in coalitions, countries can deter war by repelling an attack against any member.52 States and rogue elements will not be able to strike surreptitiously if they know that the international community could quickly discern the origin of any launch and compute potential impact points. Attempts by a rogue element to destabilize the region through the attribution of attacks to a state may initially promote the rogue elements own agenda. However, data provided by missile defense and other sensors can refute such claims. The shared international ability to identify launch and impact points might deter states and rogue elements from launching in the first place. The more nations cooperate with each other, the more stable the world becomes. Policy makers need to invest in the development of many different capabilities, including SBMD, to negate missiles in their boost phase and use the information gleaned from these developments to inform decisions. One approach involves bringing a system to the prototype stage for testing and accurately gauging its performance. This approach could let the United States invest in only a limited number of prototypes, thus deferring large-scale production to allow further research, development, and testing. These efforts could decrease the risk of failure during production and deployment.53 When the need arises, the United States should capitalize on preexisting prototypes as long as the industrial base could support rapid production. By funding R&D for SBMD, the United States would ensure the viability of these technologies. The DOD cannot expect developments in commercial industry to be available for national security purposes. Competitive pressures force industry to fund near-term R&D programs and choose near-term survival over long-term possibilities.54 Applied research into SBMD technologies would allow the United States to gain more knowledge about boostphase defenses. America will get as much R&D in SBMD technologies as it is willing to fund.

Northwestern Debate Institute

2011

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