Workshop solution 10

1. An exam consists of 10 questions to which you have to answer yes or no.

Assuming that the people who are asked do not know how to answer any of
the questions and, consequently, answer at random. Find:
a. The probability of getting 5 correct answers.
b. The probability of getting a hit.
c. The probability of getting at least 5 correct answers.
It is a binomial distribution, the person can only get the question right or wrong.
Event A (success)=getting the question right p=(A)=0.5 Event Ā=not getting the
question right q=p (Ā)=0.5

Binomial distribution of parameters n=10.p=0.5 B (10; 0.5)

a. Probability of getting five hits:

To obtain exactly five hits K=5, we apply the formula:

P ( x=k ) = ( nk) . p . q
k n−k

Where

K=5
N=10
P=0.5
q= 0.5
P ( x=5 )= (105) .( 0 , 5) . ( 0 ,5 )
5 10−5

( nk)= k ! ( n−k
n!
)!
numeros combinatorios → ( )=
10 10.9 .8 .7 .6 .5!
5 5.4 .3 .2 .1.5 !
=252

P ( x=5 )= (105) .( 0.5 ) . ( 0.5) → P=( x=5)=252.( 0.5 ) . ( 0.5) =0.2461

5 5 5 5

The possibility of having 5 correct answers is 24.61%

b. Probability of getting a hit

( x ≥ 1 )= p ( x=1 ) + p ( x=2 ) + p ( x=3 ) + p ( x=4 ) + p ( x=5 ) + p ( x=6 )+ p ( x=7 )+ p ( x=8 ) + p ( x =9 ) + p ( x=10 )
The event “get some success” is the opposite event to “not get any success.”

P (x≥ 1) = 1 – p(x=0)
We calculate the probability of not obtaining any success p(x=0)

( )
P ( x=0 ) =
10
0
0 10
. ( 0.5 ) . ( 0.5 ) =0.0010
P= ( x =≥1 ) =1−P ( x=0 ) → p ( x ≥ 1 )=1−0.001=0,999
The probability of getting a correct answer is 99.90%

c. Probability of getting at least five hits Hit five or more

P (x≥5) = p(x=5) + p (x=6) + p(x=7) + p(x=8) + p(x=9) + p(x=10)

P(x≥5) = 0.2461 + 0.2051 + 0.1172 + 0.0439 + 0.00098 + 0.0010 = 0.6231

The possibility of getting at least 5 correct answers is 62.31%

2. The probability that a student obtains the title of Public Administrator is 0.3
Find the probability that a group of 7 students enrolled in the first year finish
the degree.
a. None of the 7 finish the race.
b. Finish everyone.
c. At least 2 finish the race.
Solution.
a. None of the 7 finish the race
n=7
k=0
p=0.3
q=0.7

P ( x=0 ) = (70) . ( 0.3) . ( 0.7) =0.0824

0 7

The probability that none of the 7 finishes the race is 8.24%

b. Finish everyone P ( x=k ) = ( nk) . p . q

k n−k

N=7
K=7 p=0.3
q=0.7
P ( x=0 ) =(77) . ( 0.3) .( 0.7)
7 7−7=0
=0,0002

The probability that they all finish is 0.02%

c. At least 2 finish the race

We calculate the probability of the opposite event, the probability that no one
finishes the race plus the probability that one does not finish.

P ( x ≥ 2 )=1−⟦ p ( x=0 ) + p ( x=1 ) ⟧

We have already calculated the probability that none of them end up at point 1

P ( x=0 ) =0,0824

Probability of finishing one P ( x=1 )= (71) .( 0.3 ) . ( 0.7)

1 7 −1=6
=0,2471

P ( x ≥ 2 )=1−⟦ p ( x=0 ) + p ( x=1 ) ⟧

P ( x ≥ 2 )=1−⟦ 0,0824+ 0,2471 ⟧=0,6705The probability that at least two finish the race
is 62.05%

3. In a hospital the births of male babies are being studied. It is known that an
average of 7 boys are born in a week. Calculate:

a. Probability of 3 boys being born in a week.

b. Probability of fewer than 3 boys being born per week.

Data

λ (mean) = 7 males per week

x = birth of male babies
e= 2.71828
−λ k
e .λ
Formula p ( x=k ) =
x!

Solving; We replace the values in the formula

( 2.71828 )−7 . ( 7 )3 9.118862592 x 10−4 . 343

1. p ( x=7 ) = = =0,052 →5 , 2 %
3! 3.2 .1

The probability of fewer than three boys being born a week is 5.2%

2. P ( x< 3 )= p ( x=0 ) + p ( x=1 ) + p ( x=2 )

( 2.71828 )−7 . ( 7 )0 ( 2.71828 )−7 . ( 7 )1

p ( x=0 ) = =0,001 p ( x=1 )= =0,006
0! 1!
 ( 2.71828 )−7 . ( 7 )2
p ( x=2 )= =0,022
2!

P ( x< 3 )=0,001+0,006 +0,022=0,029→ 2.9

The probability of less than three boys a week is 2.9%

4. Calculate the probability that a family that has 4 children, 3 of them will be
boys.

This problem shows us to be binomial because it can only be a boy or a girl.

This is a problem in which it shows us that being a boy or being a girl has the same
probability of 50%
50% Be a Girl
50% Be a Child
K=3
n=4
p=0.5
q=0.5
Probability of having three sons x=3

( nk) p . q
P ( x=k ) =
k n−k

P ( x=3 )= ( 43) .( 0 , 5) . ( 0 ,5 )
3 4−3

( nk)= k ! ( n−k
n!
)!

( 43)= 3 ! ( 4−3
4!
)!
3
∙ ( 0 , 5 ) . ( 0 ,5 )
4−3

3 1
p ( x=3 )=4 ∙ ( 0 , 5 ) ∙ ( 0 , 5 ) =0.25
The probability of having three sons is 25%

5. A telephone company receives calls at a rate of 4 per minute. Calculate the

probability of:
a. Receive 2 calls in one minute.
b. Do not receive any calls within a minute
c. Receive less than 3 calls in a minute.
d. Receive more than 3 calls in a minute.

Solution

λ (mean) = calls per minute

x= calls

λ=4

e= 2.71828
k
λ −λ
Formula p ( x=k ) = ∙e
x!

a. Receive 2 calls
2
4 ( −4
p ( x=2 )= ∙ 2.71828 )
2!

16
p ( x=2 )= ∙(0,018315688)=0,1465 →14 ,56
2

The probability that you receive 2 calls in 1 minute is 14.65%

b. Do not receive call

0
4 ( )−4 1 (
p ( x=0 ) = ∙ e = ∙ 0,018315688 )=0,01831
0! 1

The chance that they will not receive any calls is 1.83%

c. Less than 3 calls

P(x<3)=p(x=0)+p(x=1)+p(x=2)

P(x=0)= 0.01831
 1
4 ( )−4
p ( x=1 )= ∙ e =4 ∙ ( 0,018315688 )=0,07324
1!

16
p ( x=2 )= ∙(0,018315688)=0,1465
2

P(x<3)=0.01831+0.07324+0.1465 = 0.2335------23.35%

The probability that you will receive less than three calls is 23.35%

d. More than three calls

P ( x> 3 ) es t es igual a P(x ≤3)
P ( x ≤ 3 )= p ( x=0 )+ p ( x=1 ) + p ( x=2 ) + p ( x=3 )
P ( x ≤ 3 )=0,01831+ 0,0732+ 0,1465+0,1953=0,4333

P ( x ≤ 3 )=1−P ( x ≤3 )=1−0,433=0,5667
3
4 ( )−4 64 (
p ( x=3 )= ∙ e = ∙ 0,018315688 )=0,1954
3! 6

6. The probability that a first semester student repeats a course is 0.3. We

choose 20 students at random. What is the probability that there are exactly
4 repeat students?

Solution.

N=20
P=0.3
q=0.7
k=4
Formula
P ( x=k ) = ( nk) p . q
k n−k

20! 4 16
P ( X=4 )= ∙ ( 0 , 3 ) ∙ ( 0 ,7 )
4 ! ( 20−4 ) !
20 x 19 x 18 x 17 4 16 4 16
∙ ( 0 ,3 ) ∙ ( 0 , 7 ) =4845 ∙0 ,3 ∙ 0.7 =0 ,13
4.3 .2
The possibility of finding 4 repeating students is 13%
 7. In a company the average number of accidents is 3 per month. Calculate
the probability of:
a. Let no accident happen in a month.
b. That a maximum of 2 accidents occur in a month.
c. Let 30 accidents occur in a year.
d. Let 8 accidents occur in a quarter.
Solution
λ (mean) = accidents per month
x= accidents
λ=3
e= 2.71828
Formula
k
( ) λ −λ
p x=k = ∙ e
x!

a. That no accident occurs X=0

0
3 −3
p ( x=0 ) = ∙ ( e ) =0 , 0498
0!

b. A maximum of 2 accidents occur

P ( x ≤ 2 )= p ( x=0 )+ p ( x=1 ) + p ( x=2 )

P(x=0)= 0.0498

1
3 −3
p ( x=1 )= ∙ e =3 ∙ ( 0.04973 )=0,1493
1!
2
3 −3
p x=1 = ∙ e =4 , 5∙ ( 0.04973 ) =0,2238
( )
2!

P ( x ≤ 2 )=0,0498+ 0,1493+0,2238=0,4229

c. Let 30 accidents occur in a year

k
λ −λ
λ = 36 p ( x=k ) = ∙ e
x!
30
36 −30
p ( x=30 )= ∙ e =0,0427
30 !

The possibility of 30 accidents occurring out of 12 in a year is 0.0427

 d. Let 8 accidents occur in a quarter
k
λ −λ
λ=9 p ( x=k ) = ∙ e
x!
8
9 −9 43046721 −9
p ( x=8 ) = ∙e = ∙ e =0,1317
8! 40320

la posibilidad de que ocurran8 accidentes en un trimestre es de 0,1317 → que equivale al 13 ,17 %

8. Invitations are reported knowing that 40% of the guests will attend the event.
10 invitations are selected at random. Calculate:
a. The probability that only 3 attend the event.
b. The probability that more than 3 attend the event

Solution

Data
K=?
N=10
P=4---0.0
q= 0.6
Formula
P ( x=k ) =( nk) . p . q
k n−k

a. Probability that only 3 attend the event

K=3

P ( x=0 ) = (103) . ( 0.4) . ( 0.6) =120 ∙ 0,064 ∙ 0,028=0,215

3 7

b. p ( x> 3 )=1− p ( x ≤3 )=1− p ( x=0 )−p ( x =1 )− p ( x=2 )− p ( x=3 )

p ( x=0 ) = (100) ∙0 , 4 . 0 ,6
0 10
=0,006

p ( x=1 )= (101)∙ ( 0 , 4 ) . ( 0 , 6) =0,040

1 9
 p ( x=0 ) =(102) ∙( 0 , 4) .( 0 ,6 ) =0,121
2 8

p ( x=0 ) =(103) ∙( 0 , 4) . ( 0 ,6 ) =0,215

3 7

p ( x> 3 )=¿ 0,006+0,040+0,121+0,215= 0,618

9. A life insurance salesperson sells on average 3 policies per week. Calculate

the probability of:
a. Let him sell some policies in a week.
b. Sell 2 or more policies, but less than 5 in a week.
c. Assuming there are 5 work days per week, what is the probability that on a
given day you sell a policy?
d. Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the probability
distribution inferred from this problem.

Solution

Data

λ = 3 policies/week

a. Sell a few policies per week

P= ( x >0 )=1− p ( x >0 )

P= ( x >0 )=1− p (x ≤ 0)
−3 0
e ∙ ( 3)
P= ( x >0 )= =0,04878
0!

P= ( x >0 )=1−0,04878=0,9502

b. Sell 2 or more policies, but less than 5 in a week

p ( 2≤ x <5 )= p ( x=2 ) + p ( x=3 )+ p( x=4)

−3 2 −3 3 −3 4
e ∙3 e ∙ 3 e ∙3
p ( 2≤ x <5 )= + +
2! 3! 4!

p ( 2≤ x <5 )=0,2240+0,2240+0,1680=0,616

c. Assuming there are 5 work days per week, what is the probability that on a
given day you sell a policy?
 −0 ,6 1
e ∙0,6
p ( x=1 )= =0,3292
1!

d. Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the probability

distribution inferred from this problem.

E(X)=Var (x)= λ

E(x) = 3

Var(x) =

λ = 3/5 = 0,6