Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Headlines
(Global Economy) Moody's lowered Italy's rating to A2 from Aa2, with a negative outlook. (Indian Economy) India's current account deficit for Q1FY12 widened to USD 14.2 bn (Economic Calendar) (Global and Domestic Stock Markets) (Derivative Analysis) Nifty October Futures closed at 4898.60 (Technical Analysis) Nifty Supports at 4800-4730 and resistance 4970-5034. (Weekly Recommendations) STERLITE And L&T (Sector & Company Highlights) (MF Industry update)
Headline Inflation by WPI (%) (August 2011) Annualize d Rate (curre nt) Headline Inflation (WPI) 9.78 Internals Primary Products Fue l Powe r and Lubricants Manufacture d Goods
Source: CCIL
INR Exchange Rate (As on October 7, 2011) Current 1 Week USD GBP Euro Ye n 49.14 75.97 66.00 64.11 48.91 76.53 66.43 63.93 Change Weekly 0.47 (0.73) (0.65) 0.28 1 Year 45.04 71.3 60.62 53.46 Change annual 9.10 6.55 8.87 19.92
8.55 8.36
Economic Calendar
India Date Eve nt Pe riod 1-Oct 1-Oct 1-Oct Prior 9.4% 14.7% 10.8% 13-Oct Food Articles WPI YoY 13-Oct Fue l Power Article s WPI YoY 13-Oct Primary Article s WPI YoY
US Date 7-Oct 7-Oct 7-Oct 8-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct Eve nt Unemployme nt Rate Change in Manufact Payroll Wholesale Inve ntorie s Consume r Credit Monthly Budge t Stateme nt MBA Mortgage Applications Initial Jobless Claims Pe riod SEP SEP AUG Prior 9.1% -3K 0.8%
Institutional Activity in INR Bn (Weekly) Institutions FII DIIs Ne t Inflow -15.5 10.8
Market Snapshot
Nifty September Futures closed at 4898.60 (premium of 10.60 points over the Nifty spot) Open interest Nifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 Sept): 20.66 mn. Open interest BankNifty FUTIDX (Expiry 29 Sept): 2.02 mn. India VIX for the week ended at 33.02, up 1.08 from previous weeks close (31.94). In the week VIX touched low of 29.90 and high of 39.02. Weekly Open Interest Analysis (Nifty Option) Across all expiries, open interest is highest at 5000, 5100 & 5200 call options,
51 00
4600
4800
4900
5400
4700
4500
5000
5200
5300
while open interest in the put options is highest at 4800, 4700 & 4600 strike
5500
Strike
prices, suggesting 4700-5100 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short term.
Change in OI
3,000,000
Sector Wise OI Change: Most of the Sectors witnessed positive OI change wherein, CAPITAL GOODS, BANK, POWER and IT gained the most.
2,000,000
OI-Change
1,000,000
0
460 0 470 0 510 0 520 0 48 00 49 00 5 000 53 00 54 00 55 00 4500
(1,000,000)
(2,000,000)
Strike
Cement CapitalGoods IT
S e c tor s
% Change in OI
Nifty PC Ratio
1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1
4-Oct
5-Oct
6-Oct
3-Oct
Date
7-Oct
0.6
Top 10 Volume Gainers SCRIPS % Change in F&O % Change Volumes Price Open Interest (Delivery Based) DIVISLAB 2.30 6.19 330.71 GMDCLTD -5.60 -27.16 16.41 FORTIS -5.16 54.68 -62.87 ABGSHIP 4.05 0.99 85.78 HOTELEELA 0.83 -5.52 -78.25 VOLTAS -4.37 -11.45 613.17 RELCAPITAL -21.62 88.27 667.90 ESSAROIL -7.95 0.20 738.84 COREEDUTEC 0.42 -11.52 34.88 ROLTA -11.11 5.43 123.48
PCR
(Source: Iris)
Conclusion
Last week Nifty shut on a marginal negative @ 4888 and down by 55 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish hammer candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to positive sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 4874.40 and made a low of 4728.30 and made a high of 4922.60 then finally closed sideways sentiment at 4888. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold and sideways signaling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. Nifty closed below the 20 day moving average (4960) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move higher especially if support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 4725-5034. The next area of resistance is around at 4970-5034. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 4800-4730 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 4725 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 4970-5034 and supports at 4800-4730. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 16500-16750 and supports at 16000-15745. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9300-9450 and supports at 8800-8650.
Banking
Moodys Investors Service downgraded State Bank of India, the countrys largest public sector banks financial strength rating (BFSR), to D+ from C- on account of asset quality concerns and capital situation. According Moody, the non-performing assets (NPA) are likely to continue rising in the near term and higher interest rates and a slower economy might weigh on the SBIs profitability and its creditworthiness. The SBI reported a Tier 1 capital ratio of 7.6% as of 30 June 2011 which is below the 8% Tier 1 ratio that the government of India has committed for maintaining in public sector banks (PSB).
Pharma
Strides Arcolab has received the USFDA approval to market injectable Clindamycin USP, used in the treatment of bacterial infections, in the American market. Hindustan Unilever has entered the premium water purifier segment, three years after entering the market with its affordable Pureit range, now the largest-selling water purifier in the country. The new product, Pureit Marvella RO (Reverse Osmosis), at INR 13,500, is priced fifteen times more than the companys base product, Pureit Intella, which starts at INR 900.
10
5-Oct
4-Oct
3-Oct
-10 0 10
Debt
20
Equity
30
40
50
10
Weekly Activity
Date Mutual Fund Activity 5-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 FII Activity 7-Oct-11 5-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 3-Oct-11
Source: Accord Fintech
Equity (INR in Bn) Purchase 5.28 5.59 3.87 Sales 4.24 6.54 6.20 Net Purchase /Sales 1.04 -0.95 -2.33 Purchase 55.56 52.03 84.16
Debt (INR in Bn) Sales 41.41 33.51 38.03 Net Purchase /Sales 14.15 18.52 46.13
11
apprec iation by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market securities. The S cheme will invest only in such sec urities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the S cheme. To seek to generate regular returns and growth of capital by investing in a diversified portfolio of
5-Oct
10-Oct
Close ended
Central and S tate Government securities and Other Crisil S hort-Term fixed inc ome/ debt securities maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme with the objective of limiting interest rate volatility. To provide regular income, liquidity and returns to the investors through investments in a portfolio Bond Fund Index
SBI DFS-90D-50(G)
3-Oct
10-Oct
Close ended
comprising
of
debt
instruments
such
Government S ecurities, PS U & Corporate Bonds and Money Market Instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme. To seek to generate income by investing in a
3-Oct
11-Oct
Close ended
Mr. Kaustubh Gupta portfolio of fixed inc ome securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme. To generate monthly income through investments in a range of Debt, Equity and Money Market
27-S ep 11-Oct
Open ended
Instruments. Income will be distributed only if the Crisil MIP Blended same is earned by the S cheme and there can be no assurance that the objective of the S cheme will be realized. To seek to generate returns and capital Crisil Liquid Fund Index apprec iation by investing in a portfolio of debt and Index
7-Oct
11-Oct
Close ended
money market securities. The S cheme will invest only in such sec urities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the S cheme. To generate income through investments in Debt
30-S ep 11-Oct
Close ended
/ Money Market Instruments and Government Crisil S hort-Term S ecurities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s). To seek to generate regular returns and growth of capital by investing in a diversified portfolio of Bond Fund Index
3-Oct
11-Oct
Close ended
Central and S tate Government securities and Other Crisil S hort-Term fixed inc ome/ debt securities maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme with the objective of limiting interest rate volatility. To generate income through investments in Debt Bond Fund Index
3-Oct
12-Oct
Close ended
/ Money Market Instruments and Government Crisil S hort-Term S ecurities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s). Bond Fund Index
12
29-S ep 13-Oct
13
DWS FTF-91(G)
4-Oct
18-Oct
HDFC Gold Fund(G) Tata Retirement Savings Fund Conservative P lan(G) Tata Retirement Savings Fund Moderate P lan(G) Tata Retirement Savings Fund P rogresive P lan(G)
Source: Accord Fintech
7-Oct
21-Oct
7-Oct
21-Oct
7-Oct
21-Oct
7-Oct
21-Oct
14
Absolute Return (In %) 1 Week 1 Month -1.75 -1.48 -2.01 -2.13 -1.85 -1.53 -0.13 -0.78 -0.90 -1.69 -1.14 -1.25 -4.30 -4.05 -6.07 -3.82 -5.04 -4.65 -0.25 -0.91 -1.42 -4.54 -3.59 -3.20 1 Year -14.69 -16.34 -19.45 -14.92 -19.15 -16.35 3.02 0.34 0.32 -10.57 -4.72 -9.94
CAGR (In %) Since Inception 28.50 20.02 22.23 22.76 21.27 29.15 9.52 10.52 11.26 18.42 16.45 15.90
(08 Oct 11) 94.11 32.14 41.96 194.92 184.10 89.85 26.92 21.73 22.95 199.14 54.03 78.27
BETA 0.71 0.79 0.70 0.78 0.88 0.77 0.11 0.34 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.35
ALPHA -0.01 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.07 -0.04 -0.07
Expense Ratio 1.82 1.84 1.92 1.83 1.78 1.85 2.09 1.54 1.52 1.80 2.11 2.34
(In %)
(08 Oct 11) 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year Since Inception 176.35 16.42 16.63 17.12 31.93 33.58 11.05 11.52 17.58 13.09 16.79 15.36 21.43 1446.29 2339.02 0.19 0.20 0.15 -0.04 -0.16 -0.61 0.23 0.19 0.04 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.16 0.78 0.73 0.66 0.27 -0.15 -0.87 0.77 0.71 0.44 0.75 0.73 0.74 0.71 0.73 0.66 8.64 8.08 6.95 7.52 4.69 2.68 9.21 7.55 8.67 8.49 8.62 8.76 8.36 8.61 7.95 7.03 6.07 6.99 7.96 9.15 10.60 8.67 7.04 7.32 6.49 7.31 6.59 6.90 6.70
YTM
Average Days
Modified Expense Ratio 0.14 0.82 0.60 0.79 2.13 1.24 0.65 1.35 0.59 0.65 0.57 0.25 0.41 0.20 0.65 Days 116.80 222.65 25.20 1065.80 1744.70 1668.05 69.35 262.80 0.00 43.80 29.20 0.00 23.00 35.82 0.00
Maturity In Duration in 120.45 244.55 26.40 1569.50 2679.10 2489.30 76.65 372.30 938.05 47.45 29.20 60.90 25.00 38.34 30.00
8.78 0.00 0.00 9.63 9.43 0.00 9.79 0.00 9.29 9.30 9.07 0.00 0.00 8.55
8.05 10.06
15
Category De bt De bt Hybrid De bt De bt De bt De bt De bt De bt De bt De bt De bt De bt De bt
Record Date 4-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 7-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 3-Oct-11
Gross 0.49 0.55 0.50 0.49 0.58 0.57 0.67 0.76 0.73 0.79 0.54 0.69 0.80 0.70
Corporate Non-Corporate 0.36 0.41 0.38 0.41 0.49 0.43 0.50 0.57 0.55 0.59 0.45 0.58 0.60 0.53 0.43 0.48 0.44 0.43 0.51 0.50 0.58 0.67 0.64 0.69 0.47 0.61 0.70 0.62
16
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd. (UNICON) for the information of its customers only. UNICON is governed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained in good faith from public sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced independently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectations contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only and is provided on an as is basis. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell or subscribe to any securities or other financial instruments. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. UNICON, its associate and group companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject UNICON or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of UNICON. This document is for the general information and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual customer, and it does not constitute a personalized recommendation of any particular security or investment strategy. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this document, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customers particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. UNICON, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk. UNICON, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and any information in it. UNICON, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Address: Wealth Management Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, VILCO Center, Opp Garware House, 8, Subhash Road, Vile Parle (East), Mumbai - 400057. Ph: 022-33901234 Email: wealthresearch@unicon.in Visit us at www.unicon.in
17