THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL

THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER

October 13, 2011 NH OPPOSED TO REPEAL OF GAY MARRIAGE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. UNH Survey Center 603/862-2226 www.unh.edu/survey-center

DURHAM, NH New Hampshire adults continue to oppose repealing the recently passed law that legalized same-sex marriage in New Hampshire. Few think legalizing gay marriage has had a major impact on New Hampshire or on their personal lives. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred (500) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between September 26 and October 2, 2011. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percent. Republicans in the New Hampshire Legislature are scheduled to take up the issue of gay marriage when they reconvene in January. In June, 2009, the then Democratic legislature passed, and Governor Lynch signed, legislation that legalized marriage between gay and lesbian couples in New Hampshire. But after the Republicans retook the legislature with veto proof majorities in both Houses, legislation was introduced to repeal this law There is strong opposition to a bill that would repeal same-sex marriage in New Hampshire only 27% of New Hampshire adults support the repeal of the 2009 law that legalized same-sex marriage in New Hampshire (22% strongly support and 5% support somewhat), 50% strongly oppose repeal, 12% somewhat oppose repeal, and 11% are neutral or dont know. These figures are unchanged since February 2011. Strong opponents of repealing same-sex marriage continue outnumber strong proponents by more than 2 to 1, said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center. The New Hampshire public is not showing any strong desire to repeal this law. Support / Oppose Repeal of Gay Marriage in NH

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Support, Feb. '11 Support, Oct. '11 Neutral, Feb. '11 Neutral, Oct. '11 Oppose, Feb. '11 Oppose, Oct. '11

11%

12%

5% 24%

5% 22% 9% 11%

51%

50%

Strongly

Somewhat

We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

In order to better assess the political impact of support or opposition to repeal of New Hampshires gay marriage law, supporters of repealing gay marriage were asked if they would be more or less likely to support a candidate for the state House or Senate who opposed repeal and opponents of repeal were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for a legislative candidate who favored repeal. Opponents of repeal are far less likely than supporters of repeal to support a candidate for the Legislature who takes a position different than theirs on repeal 44% of New Hampshire adults say they are more likely to vote against a candidate who favors repeal of gay marriage while only 14% say they will be less likely to support a candidate who opposes repeal. Impact of Candidates Position on Repeal of Gay Marriage on Vote

50% 40% 30% 22% 20% 10% 0% 14% 4% 13% 4%

44%

Oppose Repeal, Favor Repeal, No Oppose Repeal, No Oppose Repeal, Favor Repeal, Less Favor Repeal, Less Likely to Impact on Vote Impact on Vote More Likely to Likely to Support More Likely to Support Cand. Support Cand. Support cand. who Cand. who who Favors Repeal who Favors Repeal Opposes Repeal Opposes Repeal

Impact of Gay Marriage Most New Hampshire adults believe that legalizing gay marriage has had had no impact or only a minor impact on New Hampshire. Only 8% of Granite Staters believe that legalizing gay marriage has had a major impact on the state, 38% think it has had a minor impact, and 47% think it has had no impact on the state. Importantly, only 9% of Republicans and 11% of conservatives think it has had a major impact on the state. When asked how legalizing gay marriage has impacted their own lives, the great majority of New Hampshire residents think it has had no impact. Only 6% think that legalizing gay marriage has had a major impact on their lives, 12% think it has had a minor impact, while 81% think it has had no impact. There are no significant demographic differences in how Granite Staters feel gay marriage has impacted their lives.

Impact of Gay Marriage

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

81%

47% 38%

8%

6%

12%

Major Impact

Minor Impact

No Impact

On New Hampshire

On Personal Life

Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred (500) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between September 26 and October 2, 2011. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percent. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.

Repeal of Gay Marriage in New Hampshire On another topic As you may know, New Hampshire legalized marriage between gay and lesbian couples in 2009. Recently, there has been an effort in the State Legislature to repeal this law. Would you say you support or oppose the effort to repeal legalized gay marriage in New Hampshire? IF SUPPORT: Do you strongly support this or just somewhat? IF OPPOSE: Do you strongly oppose this or just somewhat?

Strongly Support Somewhat Support Neutral/Dont Know Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose (N=)

Feb. 11 24% 5% 9% 11% 51% (517)

Oct. 11 22% 5% 11% 12% 50% (482)

IF SUPPORT REPEAL: Would you be more or less likely to vote for your state senator or representative if they voted AGAINST repealing legalized marriage between gay and lesbian couples in New Hampshire, or would it have no effect on your vote? Oct. 11 14% 44% 37% 5% (131)

More Likely to Support Less Likely to Support No Effect Dont Know / No Opinion (N=)

IF OPPOSE REPEAL: Would you be more or less likely to vote for your state senator or representative if they voted IN FAVOR of repealing legalized marriage between gay and lesbian couples in New Hampshire, or would it have no effect on your vote? Oct. 11 6% 63% 29% 2% (296)

More Likely to Support Less Likely to Support No Effect Dont Know / No Opinion (N=)

"What kind of impact do you think that legalizing marriage between gay and lesbian couples has had in New Hampshire ... do you think it has had a major impact on the state ... a minor impact ... or no impact at all?" Oct. 11 8% 38% 47% 7% (489)

Major Impact Minor Impact No Impact At All Dont Know / No Opinion (N=)

"Now thinking about your personal life... do you think that legalizing marriage between gay and lesbian couples has had a major impact on YOU ... a minor impact ... or no impact at all?" Oct. 11 6% 12% 81% 1% (490)

Major Impact Minor Impact No Impact At All Dont Know / No Opinion (N=)

Support/Oppose Repeal of NH Gay Marriage Law Strongly Support 24% 22%

32% 8% 22% 35% 6% 20% 36% 4% 12% 42% 41% 18% 8% 37% 7% 21% 21% 18% 22% 26% 5% 23% 15% 15% 23% 22% 12% 14% 23% 27% 26% 17% 32% 23% 20% 14% 27% 25% 10% 43% 16% 14% 11% 19% 24% 16% 22% 18% 31%

STATEWIDE Feb. 11 STATEWIDE Oct. 11

Likely GOP Primary Voter Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party McCain/Palin Voter Obama/Biden Voter Other Did Not Vote in 2008 Union household Non-union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 10 yrs. or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Protestant Catholic Other Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

Somewhat Support 5% 5%
7% 3% 4% 10% 2% 5% 9% 0% 4% 11% 10% 5% 2% 7% 2% 6% 12% 2% 6% 8% 7% 7% 3% 6% 1% 6% 3% 7% 6% 2% 5% 6% 3% 8% 8% 3% 7% 5% 3% 2% 9% 10% 2% 6% 3% 6% 6% 5% 7%

Neutral / DK 10% 11%

14% 5% 9% 16% 5% 18% 14% 5% 11% 16% 18% 9% 4% 17% 4% 22% 21% 12% 11% 14% 10% 11% 5% 14% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 14% 8% 17% 18% 8% 5% 11% 14% 7% 14% 9% 9% 12% 10% 10% 9% 14% 10% 10%

Somewhat Oppose 11% 12%

10% 15% 10% 11% 11% 15% 12% 13% 14% 10% 10% 13% 14% 11% 12% 17% 12% 10% 13% 10% 11% 12% 11% 17% 18% 10% 11% 20% 8% 12% 10% 14% 13% 9% 14% 13% 11% 16% 10% 9% 12% 15% 12% 16% 14% 5% 13% 16% 9%

Strongly Oppose 51% 50%

37% 68% 55% 28% 76% 42% 29% 78% 59% 21% 20% 55% 73% 28% 74% 35% 33% 58% 49% 41% 67% 48% 66% 48% 47% 52% 63% 48% 52% 47% 44% 55% 35% 42% 51% 65% 45% 40% 70% 32% 53% 51% 64% 50% 49% 63% 45% 52% 43%

(N=) 517 482

244 103 205 131 182 91 191 95 204 150 143 160 159 195 219 21 27 82 389 136 64 292 168 80 75 316 40 122 190 113 236 246 82 110 150 130 176 141 139 117 67 132 139 38 85 75 133 78 74

More/less likely to support candidate voting AGAINST repeal (Supporters of Gay Marriage Repeal) More Likely To Support 14%
18% 9% 17% 13% 4% 2% 17% 27% 8% 16% 13% 21% 7% 15% 14% 0% 0% 27% 11% 11% 13% 12% 14% 18% 6% 14% 27% 5% 8% 23% 15% 13% 13% 3% 17% 21% 13% 17% 2% 16% 11% 12% 8% 11% 27% 10% 12% 17% 7%

STATEWIDE
Likely GOP Primary Voter Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party McCain/Palin Voter Obama/Biden Voter Other Did Not Vote in 2008 Union household Nonunion Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 10 yrs. or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Protestant Catholic Other Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

Less Likely To Support 44%

46% 33% 44% 50% 45% 24% 51% 12% 24% 52% 51% 41% 26% 52% 18% 74% 20% 39% 46% 53% 29% 39% 41% 27% 54% 45% 18% 44% 54% 34% 52% 32% 33% 59% 47% 33% 45% 49% 36% 55% 50% 32% 36% 17% 37% 31% 53% 37% 58%

No Effect 37%
31% 51% 34% 34% 45% 64% 28% 50% 59% 28% 34% 27% 63% 28% 62% 26% 78% 34% 38% 30% 58% 44% 39% 40% 33% 38% 47% 44% 33% 38% 31% 45% 52% 36% 26% 41% 38% 33% 45% 27% 39% 52% 41% 66% 33% 49% 32% 36% 32%

DK 5%
5% 8% 5% 3% 6% 10% 3% 12% 9% 4% 2% 11% 3% 5% 7% 0% 3% 0% 6% 6% 0% 4% 6% 15% 6% 3% 8% 6% 6% 4% 1% 10% 1% 3% 10% 5% 3% 1% 18% 2% 0% 4% 16% 6% 3% 10% 3% 9% 3%

(N) 131
96 12 54 58 14 23 85 4 33 79 74 37 15 86 20 6 9 17 108 47 8 86 30 17 19 89 6 25 55 33 73 57 29 34 41 22 60 42 18 52 17 32 18 9 23 17 36 17 28

More/less likely to support candidate voting FOR repeal (Opponents of Gay Marriage Repeal) More Likely To Support 6%
8% 5% 2% 15% 5% 4% 9% 2% 4% 15% 17% 3% 5% 11% 4% 12% 0% 2% 6% 8% 9% 5% 3% 6% 0% 7% 8% 3% 5% 8% 8% 4% 6% 4% 8% 3% 10% 7% 2% 13% 9% 5% 2% 9% 4% 1% 10% 5% 8%

STATEWIDE
Likely GOP Primary Voter Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party McCain/Palin Voter Obama/Biden Voter Other Did Not Vote in 2008 Union household Non-union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 10 yrs. or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Protestant Catholic Other Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

Less Likely To Support 63%

53% 77% 67% 36% 75% 66% 40% 79% 67% 30% 36% 56% 79% 40% 76% 9% 72% 67% 64% 60% 67% 62% 72% 62% 66% 64% 72% 64% 62% 62% 60% 66% 51% 59% 67% 69% 58% 51% 76% 53% 54% 65% 70% 52% 56% 81% 62% 59% 65%

No Effect 29%
39% 16% 29% 48% 18% 27% 51% 17% 29% 50% 46% 40% 14% 49% 18% 79% 28% 29% 29% 31% 24% 33% 23% 28% 33% 28% 15% 33% 32% 27% 30% 29% 43% 34% 23% 26% 30% 42% 21% 32% 37% 26% 28% 39% 37% 15% 28% 34% 27%

DK 2%
0% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 0% 2% 0% 5% 0% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 0% 1% 5% 0% 1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 3% 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 2% 0% 3% 0% 0% 3% 3% 0% 2% 0%

(N) 296
114 86 132 52 159 52 78 85 148 48 44 107 137 76 190 11 12 56 236 68 51 174 130 52 48 194 30 83 112 66 129 167 40 55 96 101 98 77 111 49 44 88 103 24 54 51 76 53 38

Impact of Gay Marriage on New Hampshire Major Impact 8%

8% 3% 8% 9% 3% 12% 9% 5% 6% 11% 11% 7% 5% 6% 6% 18% 22% 2% 9% 10% 7% 7% 6% 3% 9% 8% 5% 8% 10% 4% 10% 6% 11% 11% 6% 4% 12% 5% 5% 13% 5% 7% 5% 12% 6% 3% 8% 11% 8%

STATEWIDE
Likely GOP Primary Voter Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party McCain/Palin Voter Obama/Biden Voter Other Did Not Vote in 2008 Union household Non-union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 10 yrs. or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Protestant Catholic Other Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

Minor Impact 38%

42% 35% 39% 43% 34% 33% 46% 29% 39% 44% 45% 42% 33% 46% 33% 26% 27% 36% 39% 45% 29% 41% 33% 36% 31% 42% 43% 34% 44% 33% 31% 45% 37% 37% 41% 38% 41% 39% 37% 41% 43% 42% 34% 35% 43% 34% 35% 38% 46%

No Impact 47%
43% 54% 49% 42% 59% 44% 38% 59% 48% 38% 36% 45% 58% 39% 56% 53% 35% 57% 45% 36% 61% 45% 58% 45% 55% 45% 42% 50% 44% 51% 51% 43% 48% 43% 48% 49% 38% 48% 56% 37% 46% 43% 58% 44% 48% 55% 47% 44% 42%

DK 7%
7% 8% 5% 7% 5% 11% 7% 7% 6% 8% 8% 7% 4% 9% 5% 2% 15% 6% 7% 9% 3% 7% 3% 17% 4% 5% 11% 8% 2% 12% 8% 6% 4% 9% 5% 9% 9% 7% 2% 9% 5% 8% 4% 9% 3% 8% 10% 6% 4%

(N) 489
248 103 209 132 182 95 193 94 206 154 145 164 160 196 220 23 28 82 395 138 65 293 169 82 76 318 41 123 191 114 238 251 85 111 151 130 176 144 140 119 68 134 139 38 85 76 137 78 75

Impact of Gay Marriage on personal life Major Impact 6%

7% 6% 3% 10% 5% 4% 8% 10% 3% 9% 9% 5% 4% 7% 5% 13% 4% 2% 7% 6% 1% 5% 5% 3% 6% 6% 9% 3% 8% 4% 7% 5% 4% 8% 5% 7% 6% 7% 4% 9% 1% 8% 4% 3% 2% 7% 8% 8% 5%

STATEWIDE
Likely GOP Primary Voter Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party McCain/Palin Voter Obama/Biden Voter Other Did Not Vote in 2008 Union household Non-union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 10 yrs. or less in NH 11 to 20 years More than 20 years 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Protestant Catholic Other Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

Minor Impact 12%

14% 8% 11% 16% 8% 8% 16% 12% 9% 17% 20% 9% 9% 16% 9% 5% 12% 13% 12% 15% 6% 10% 7% 7% 12% 13% 14% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 10% 11% 14% 12% 12% 12% 13% 19% 13% 11% 6% 12% 11% 10% 10% 12% 19%

No Impact 81%
78% 86% 86% 72% 87% 83% 75% 79% 87% 72% 69% 86% 86% 75% 87% 82% 77% 85% 80% 76% 94% 84% 87% 88% 79% 80% 73% 85% 80% 83% 78% 84% 83% 79% 82% 80% 81% 79% 83% 70% 86% 80% 89% 82% 87% 80% 80% 80% 76%

DK 1%
1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 7% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 5% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 2% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0%

(N) 490
248 104 210 131 183 96 193 95 208 154 145 164 161 197 221 23 28 82 398 138 65 294 169 82 76 320 41 123 191 116 239 251 85 111 154 130 178 144 140 119 68 136 139 38 86 76 139 77 75