GSM 3G Market Update

GSM/3G MARKET UPDATE
October 9, 2007
Global mobile Suppliers Association
www.gsacom.com
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www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2007
GSM/3G Market Update - October 9, 2007 Slide no. 1/46

About GSA - Global mobile Suppliers Association
- representing GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers globally
GSA is the representative body for the GSM/3G supplier industry, bringing together
all views on GSM/EDGE/WCDMA-HSPA
Objectives
4to strengthen promotion of GSM world-wide in new and existing markets
4to support operators and promote the evolution of GSM as the platform for delivery of
3G multimedia services
The leading GSM/3G suppliers world-wide are members of GSA

Aeroflex, AnyDATA Inc., Broadcom, Business Logic Systems, Comsys Communication & Signal
Processing, EDO-EVI, Ericsson, Hewlett Packard, Intel, LSI Logic Corporation, Motorola, Nokia
Siemens Networks, NXP Semiconductors, Panasonic, Radixs, Talking Eye, Telcordia
….. representing solutions providers, GSM, EDGE, WCDMA-HSPA infrastructure, devices,
OSS, apps developers, billing, revenue assurance, semiconductor software design/platforms
Interested in joining? Benefits, details at www.gsacom.com/about/join.php4

GSA Activities
4Deliver market facts, intelligence & data objectively for the mobile industry
4Facilitate networking/dialogue cross-industry for information exchange
4Advise policy-makers on most favourable conditions for market development
4Support for mature markets and new growth markets
4Inform media & analysts about key milestones, drivers, developments, trends
4Organize high-level interaction with GSM/3G operators worldwide
4Produce Opinion Papers and Information Papers to broaden understanding and
acceptance of the key issues
4Delivery at global & regional level: Africa, Americas, APAC, Europe, India, Russia
4GSA is a Market Representation Partner in 3GPP
4Global co-operation with, and support to, other key organisations including
COAI, ETSI, the European Commission, the GSM Association, ICU, and ITU

Key GSA website metrics
www.gsacom.com
Visitors from 154 countries

in Q2 2007
Targeted users, increasing

400-500/month
9,000-10,000
downloads/month
72,000 RSS newsfeed

accesses (Q2 07)
© Google Analytics
Regular site users include analysts, media, regulators, governments,

manufacturers, services and applications developers, content providers PLUS
over 2,200 representatives from 350 mobile network operators Mobile site http://gsacom.mobi

Fast Facts Download this chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
The GSM family of technologies embraces GPRS,

EDGE, WCDMA-HSPA – all fully open 3GPP standards October 9, 2007
182 3G/WCDMA networks launched in 81 countries
Over 2.54 billion GSM, WCDMA subs – end Q2 07 = 70% share of all commercial 3G networks
(564 million subs added in year to 30 June 2007)
700+ WCDMA user devices launched, 85 suppliers
80% of commercial WCDMA networks also launched
GSM, WCDMA = 85.4% market share (82.2% Q2 06) HSDPA: 144 HSDPA networks launched in 68
countries
HSDPA is mainstream: 311 devices, 71 suppliers
718 commercial GSM networks in 213 countries/ (26.07.07 )
territories, excl. WCDMA (source: GSM Assoc.)
137 million WCDMA subs including HSPA (30.06.07)
Over 70% of 450+ commercial GPRS operators

globally have committed to EDGE Network speed evolution: 75 HSDPA networks
launched 3.6 Mbps (peak) or higher, in 42 countries
316 GSM/EDGE network commitments in 149 = 52% of commercial HSDPA networks
countries; 257 networks launched in 123 countries 16 HSUPA networks launched; plus another 25
deployments/commitments
GSM/EDGE is mainstream: over 500 user devices Most WCDMA-HSDPA networks combine with EDGE
launched (May 2007) for service continuity and the best user experience
Over 900 million GSM, WCDMA and HSPA subs in
Network deployments, devices data source: GSA surveys commercial HSPA-enabled networks worldwide
Mobile subscribers data source: Informa Telecoms & Media

Commercial digital mobile networks
Download this chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4


3 Ways to receive news/updates from GSA
1 Regular visits to www.gsacom.com
RSS newsfeed
2 http://www.gsacom.com/rss/gsanews.php4
3 .mobi site set your phone browser to http://gsacom.mobi

The global GSM success story
New milestones
APAC: 1 billion GSM, WCDMA-
HSPA subscriptions
Western Europe: 500 million GSM,

WCDMA-HSPA subscriptions
Latin America: 250 million GSM,

WCDMA-HSPA subscriptions
Africa: Growing 6 million/month

Russia: Grew >10 mil. in 7 months
Brazil: Near 10 million adds 1H 07
China & India combined growth of

11.2 million/month average (1H 07)

GSM success by region
Update: India GSM subs

147,702,024 at 31 August 2007 (source: COAI)
Download the charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4





Evolution of Mobile Systems to 3G
- Drivers: capacity, data speeds, lower cost of delivery -
for revenue growth
Expected GSM/3G market share
TDMA
TDMA EDGE
EDGE
EDGE
EDGE Evolution
Evolution
3GPP Core
GSM
GSM GPRS
GPRS Network
90%
WCDMA
WCDMA HSDPA/HSUPA
HSDPA/HSUPA
PDC
PDC
cdmaOne
cdmaOne CDMA2000
CDMA2000 CDMA2000 EV/DO EV/DO
EV/DO
1x
1x CDMA2000
1xEV/DO
EV/DORev
Rev00
EV/DO
RevAA Rev
RevBB
10%
1x Rev
2G First Step into 3G 3G phase 1 Evolved 3G

© GSA - 2007

3G/WCDMA-HSPA is driving the global
uptake of Mobile Broadband services

182 Commercial WCDMA Operators in 81 countries
Source: GSA 3G/WCDMA-HSDPA Launches Worldwide – October 8 , 2007

Download charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

Strong WCDMA subscriptions growth
137 million WCDMA subs at

30 June 07; 95% yearly growth
66.8 million adds in 12 months

Over 6 million average
monthly growth in 1H 2007
W. Europe = 64.5 million total

APAC = 62.2 million total
Over 700 WCDMA devices

launched in the market

WCDMA: almost two-thirds market share of global
3G subscriptions – Q2 07
Q2 07 WCDMA subs
137 million
Q2 07 CDMA EV-DO subs

75 million

WCDMA trends
Download these charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

HSPA - High Speed Packet Access
4WCDMA downlink evolution HSDPA – High Speed Downlink Packet

Access, is part of 3GPP/UTRAN-FDD Release 5 WCDMA specifications.
4HSDPA delivers similar boost for WCDMA as EDGE does for GSM/GPRS.
4HSDPA boosts air interface capacity by 2 times and delivers a 5-fold
increase in downlink data speeds.
4HSDPA shortens round-trip time between network and terminals and
reduces variance in downlink transmission delay.
4No new sites. Add-on solution (low impact on RAN: software upgrade)
4WCDMA enhanced uplink - HSUPA, is standardised in 3GPP Release 6
416 commercial HSUPA launches to date

HSPA capitalizes on 3G for mobile broadband
4Leverages existing assets

4Spectrum
4Subscriber base
4Network infrastructure (sites, radio, core network, transmission)
4Operation and Management system and staff
4Subscriber management systems (authentication, billing)
HSPA is the new baseline for WCDMA operators globally

HSPA availability: 144 HSDPA commercial networks:
October 8, 2007 (GSA survey)
Download this map and chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
189 HSDPA network

commitments in 82 countries
80% of commercial WCDMA
operators also launched HSDPA
144 HSDPA commercial
networks in 68 countries
GSA forecasts 160 commercial
HSDPA networks by end 2007
HSPA isSource:
the major
GSAleap forward
survey - Aprilfor the industry
2, 2007
Download GSA survey: HSDPA Operator Commitments
www.gsacom.com

HSPA across Europe
Download this chart at www.gsacom.com/programs/europe.php4
90 commercial HSDPA
across Europe
HSDPA launched in 26 of
the 27 Member States of
the EU
HSUPA commercial
launches in 13 European
countries
475 million GSM, WCDMA

and HSPA subscriptions in
commercial HSPA-enabled
networks across Europe

Business opportunities with HSDPA
WCDMA broadband access to Internet enables "everywhere working"
Dependance of IP applications on round trip times
Charts from GSA paper Radio Access Evolution

www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/opinion_papers.php

Downlink speed evolution
3.6 Mbps is the new benchmark in downlink

peak speed for mobile broadband using HSPA
The majority (52%) of HSDPA networks
support peak speeds of 3.6 Mbps or greater
88 operators have launched or are deploying
3.6 Mbps capability as the first phase for most
operators of a planned evolution to 14.4 Mbps
75 networks have launched 3.6 Mbps peak
including 23 networks supporting 7.2 Mbps
Source: GSA HSDPA Operator

Commitments survey – October 8, 2007

HSDPA devices enter mainstream
311 HSDPA devices launched

71 suppliers
42 devices support or be upgraded for 7.2 Mbps peak working

100 HSDPA devices can operate in 850 MHz band
70 tri-band 850/1900/2100 MHz HSDPA devices launched
GSA HSDPA Devices survey –
July 26, 2007 Download this chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

HSDPA addresses all segments
HSDPA Devices survey

July 26, 2007
www.gsacom.com
Download chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

HSDPA user equipment categories
The theoretical peak rate with HSDPA is up to 14.4 Mbps
1.8 and 3.6 Mbps peak devices deliver typically 0.8 – 3.0 Mbps user experience

HSUPA – High Speed Uplink Packet Access
Improves uplink capacity

Increases uplink data throughput, evolving to 5.8 Mbps peak
Reduces latency
Improves services (e.g. wireless gaming, VoIP)
Enables new services
HSUPA is commercially launched in Europe (13 networks) and APAC (3)

25 additional networks are testing or deploying HSUPA
24 user devices already launched support, or can be upgraded for, HSUPA
delivering 2.1 Mbps (peak) for the uplink

HSUPA: user devices
HSUPA (High Speed Uplink Packet Access) complements HSDPA and provides benefits to
the mobile network operator further capacity increases, enhanced throughput and coverage,
and significantly reduces latency on the uplink
HSUPA offers data speeds up to 5.8 Mbps (peak) on the uplink channel. Together with
HSDPA, it means a huge stride in network performance

Price trends
For most operators, flat rate is the main approach to educate and encourage users
to increase mobile data usage significantly
Often a monthly limit is applied
Simple and easy to understand
Example – Switzerland, May 2007
TIM, Italy: “Tutto Compreso Internet”

€ 20 euros/month, for free unlimited access, surfing and
downloads from Google, plus 2 Gbytes/month mobile &
PC websurfing, without the government concession tax,
being refunded to customers as a bonus in traffic
Example – Austria, May 2007
Example – Italy, June 2007

Non-SMS data revenues up 40%
One-third of global
mobile data revenues
now come from non-
SMS services
SMS traffic still growing:

50% growth to 620 billion
messages in Q1 07 (Informa
World Cellular Data Metrics)

HSPA: market feedback
Positive user experience of services delivered with HSDPA

Significant network traffic growth with HSDPA
ARPU growth with HSDPA
NEW on the website

Mobile Broadband Success Stories using
HSPA – www.gsacom.com

WCDMA-HSPA leads 3G Source: GSA, CDG


HSPA will continue to dominate
mobile broadband
Alternative technologies contribute 6 percent
New alternative technologies will contribute just 6

percent of mobile broadband users globally by 2010
Technologies such as mobile WiMAX and UMTS

TDD will lead the alternative technology camp, but
enhancements to existing technologies, including
HSPA and EV-DO Revision A+ will comprise the
bulk of the market and are where the money lies in
the short-term
Strategy Analytics
"Beyond 3G: Looking for True Mobile Broadband“

November 2006

HSPA set to exceed 56 million by end-2008
July 12, 2007: www.telecoms.com

Informa Telecoms & Media states that
there were 7.25 million HSPA subscribers
worldwide at end of Q107, and predicts
that this figure will grow to over 56.8
million by end of 2008
The take-up of HSPA is faster than initial

WCDMA growth, driven by the success of
HSPA-enabled PC cards, USB modems
and HSPA-capable phones. Whereas it
took almost 3 years for WCDMA to
exceed 7 million, with HSPA this figure
was reached in 15 months. Informa
Telecoms & Media forecasts there will be
over 20 million HSPA subscriptions by
end 2007, and 56.8 million by end 2008

Clear trend for combining EDGE and WCDMA-HSPA
for 3G services delivery
The majority of WCDMA-HSPA networks are complemented with GSM/EDGE for

service continuity in areas where WCDMA-HSPA coverage is not available, to
ensure that users will receive a good experience of most 3G services
EDGE delivers typical user data speeds up to 200 kbps peak
112 of 189 HSDPA committed operators (59.2%) are deploying GSM/EDGE

82 of 144 commercially launched HSDPA networks (56.9%) also launched EDGE
Over 70% of HSDPA user devices also support GSM/EDGE

EDGE – global, mature technology
Over 70% of 450+ commercial GPRS networks
globally have committed to EDGE
316 GSM/EDGE
commitments in 149 countries
257 commercial GSM/EDGE
Over 500 GSM/EDGE
devices launched in the market
Source: GSA EDGE Fact Sheet

August 9, 2007

EDGE Evolution
Evolved GERAN - Drivers and goals
Operators stress service continuity as being very important

WCDMA evolution to HSDPA is a key driver for EDGE Evolution (GERAN
Evolution) since reducing the performance gap is the priority
EDGE Evolution - potential benefits:
2 – 3 times increase in EDGE bit rates
2 – 3 times spectral efficiency gain (for voice & data capacity)
Halve the latency (roundtrip time)
All achieved with low impact on the GSM/EDGE network
Standardisation in 3GPP Release 7

Leading manufacturers have committed to commercialisation by 2009
See GSA Information Paper “EDGE Evolution” for more details

www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4

UMTS 900 GSA Information Paper
- benefits, regulatory position, current developments,
standard, trials, deployments, user devices availability
Momentum is building towards introducing UMTS i.e.

WCDMA-HSPA systems in the 900 MHz band, used by
GSM/EDGE networks, which would help operators to
extend voice and data services coverage by leveraging
the advantages of this lower frequency band.
Providing full coverage with 2100 MHz would be too
expensive and impractical in many cases. Radio
propagation path-loss at 900 MHz is much lower. So
for the same service offering and coverage, the
required number of base station sites in the 900 MHz
band can be reduced by 60% compared to that
required at 2100 MHz, and also reduce rollout time.
Indoor coverage is improved using 900 MHz in urban
areas. WCDMA-HSPA at 900 MHz can complement
2100 MHz deployments by improving coverage,
reducing CAPEX, improving Quality of Service and the
www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4 user experience. Using WCDMA 900, network
operators can provide wireless broadband services
e.g. HSPA, to customers in a very cost-efficient way.

3GPP Release Roadmap
Release 99: Complete. Includes enhancements to GSM/GPRS (EDGE). Support for

GSM/EDGE/GPRS/WCDMA radio-access networks. Most deployments today use R99
Release 4: Complete. MMS support. Efficient interconnection of CN infrastructure over IP
networks
Release 5: Complete. Delivered HSDPA and first phase of IMS. Half of WCDMA network
deployments now include the HSDPA evolution
Release 6: Complete. Includes HSUPA, enhanced multimedia support using Multimedia
Broadcast/Multicast Services (MBMS), performance specifications for advanced receivers, WLAN
integration, and evolution of the IP Multimedia System IMS
Release 7: On-going. Enhanced GSM data functionality. Optimisation/fine tuning of earlier
releases for performance enhancements, improved spectral efficiency, increased capacity, and
better resistance to interference. Also provides optimisations for VoIP over HSPA
Rel 99 Rel 4 Rel 5 Rel 6 Rel 7
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


LTE: Long Term Evolution
LTE
Instantaneous 100 Mbps downlink speed in
20 MHz spectrum (OFDMA selected); 50 Mbps
in uplink (SC-FDMA selected)
Scaleable bandwidth
Increased cell edge performance
Reduced latency
Co-existence with GSM/GERAN/UTRAN
System Architecture Evolution (SAE); all IP

Key events supported by GSA
More information/links at www.gsacom.com/events/index.php4

More resources on the GSA website
www.gsacom.com
Information Papers
Common IMS
LTE – Long Term Evolution
NGMN Initiative
UMTS 900
EDGE Evolution
DTM - Dual Transfer Mode
Fact Sheets www.gsacom.com
WCDMA-HSPA
EDGE
Surveys www.gsacom.com
WCDMA-HSPA networks, devices
EDGE networks, devices

Exclusive for Operators Zone and Members Zone users
Wireless Analysts Reports
Deutsche Bank weekly industry bulletin:

Signals to Noise (S2N)
Log in (Members Zone/Operators Zone users only)

Visit www.gsacom.com/members/deutsche_bank_industry_bulletin.php4

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GSM 3G Market Update

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www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2007