ASEAN R i Regional Risk A l Ri k Assessment S t Scoping Workshop i W k h Bangkok, Thailand 11-12 October 2011

Risk Assessment and Its Role in Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Management
Dr. Dr Heather Bell Science Advisor Bell, Pacific Disaster Center 1305 N. Holopono St., Suite 2 Kihei, Hawaii 96753 http://www.pdc.org In Collaboration with the ASEAN UNISDR ASEAN-UNISDR Technical Cooperation

People Centered DRR and RVA

A Basic Approach to DRR

Acknowledge Risk A k l d Ri k

Assess Risk

Address Risk Add Ri k Communicate Risk

How Does RVA Support DRR and EM?

Makes idea of risk more tangible Helps stakeholders understand patterns of risk and potential consequences Identifies gaps and hotspots Increases effectiveness of DM activities Aids prioritization and goal setting Provides evidence for decision making

Acknowledge g Recovery R Risk Mitigation Assess Ri A Risk Assess Risk k Communicate Risk Response

Address Risk Preparedness

Risk Assessment in the ARPDM

Sub-Component 2.2.a: Specialized Training in Risk, Damage and Needs A d d Assessment Building better risk assessment capacity will help ASEAN Member Countries to better respond to and mitigate natural disaster risksRisk assessment requires multi-disciplinary teams to quantify and evaluate hazards, vulnerability and hazards capacities. Systematic assessment of risks is a key input to preparedness and mitigation, planning and other aspects of decision ki d i i making.
Risk is characterized as a function of Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity; Hazard Vulnerability, Risk and vulnerability assessments contribute to DRR and EM decision making

Risk Assessment Roadmap

Purpose, Goals, and Objectives of Risk Assessment p , , j

Scale Participation and Roles P ti i ti dR l

Characterize Risk
Definitions Conceptualization Key Components and Categories

Analyze Ri k A l Risk
Methods Data Requirements and Collection Execution

Communicate C i t Risk
Representation Reporting Dissemination

Acknowledge and Address Risk

Policy Planning Mitigation Mainstreaming Etc.

Standardization/Interoperability

AADMER and the Hyogo Framework for Action The Parties to this Agreement, g

RECALLING ALSO th H RECALLING the Hyogo D l ti and th Declaration d the Hyogo Framework for Action set out by the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in January 2005, which, among others, stress the need to strengthen and when necessary develop co-ordinated regional approaches, and create or upgrade regional policies, operational mechanisms, plans and communication systems to prepare for and ensure rapid and effective disaster response in situations that exceed national coping capacities

Summary of the Hyogo Framework for Action 20052015

www.unisdr.org

Summary of the Hyogo Framework for Action 20052015

For Implementation and Follow-up, Regional Organizations Are Tasked with:

Promoting regional programmes for technical cooperation, g g p g p , capacity development, development of methodologies and standards for hazard and vulnerability monitoring and assessment, information sharing, and effective mobilization of resources g, Undertaking and publishing regional and sub-regional baseline assessments Coordinating and publishing reviews on progress and support needs, and assisting countries in preparation of national summaries Establishing specialized regional collaborative centers Supporting the development of regional mechanisms and capacities for early warning, including for tsunami

AADMER Part I
Article 2: The objective of this Agreement is to provide effective mechanisms to achieve substantial reduction of disaster losses in lives and in the social, social economic and environmental assets of the Parties, and to Parties jointly respond to disaster emergencies through concerted national efforts and intensified regional and international co-operation. This should be pursued in the overall context of sustainable development h ld b d i th ll t t f t i bl d l t and in accordance with the provisions of this Agreement. Article 3.1: The Parties shall give priority to prevention and mitigation, and thus shall take precautionary measures to prevent, monitor and mitigate disasters.

AADMER Part II: Risk Identification and Monitoring 1. 1 Identify Disaster Risks, Covering: Risks
Natural and Human Induced Hazards Risk Assessment Monitoring of Vulnerabilities Disaster Management Capacities

2. Risk L l B d A 2 Ri k Levels Based on Agreed Criteria dC i i 3. Communicate to AHA Centre at Regular Intervals 4. AHA Centre to Consolidate and Disseminate Risk Information, and May Conduct Analyses , y y on Regional Level Implications

Disaster Characterized by UNISDR (2009)

Components of Disaster Risk

Hazard Characteristics In Exposed Area Level of Disruption Beyond Ability to Cope

Event

Exposure/ Affected Area

Vulnerability of Exposed Elements El t

Human-Environment System S t

Coping Capacity p g p y of Exposed Elements Connectivity C i i

Risk Assessment Characterized by UNISDR (2009) y ( )

A methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by analysing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that could pose a potential threat or harm to people, property, livelihoods and the environment on which they depend.

Risk assessments (and associated risk mapping) include: a review f f , y, of the technical characteristics of hazards such as their location, intensity, frequency and probability; the analysis of exposure and vulnerability including the physical, social, health, economic and environmental dimensions; and the evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and alternative coping capacities in respect to likely risk scenarios. This series scenarios of activities of activities is sometimes known as a risk analysis process.

Risk Assessments
Can Be Qualitative or Quantitative Can Be Technically and Thematically Simple or Complex Multi Hazard or Single Hazard Multi-Hazard Are Performed for Communities, Sectors, Systems or Objects Should Support Larger DRR and EM Goals Generally, Require Information on:
Frequency and Intensity of Relevant Hazards Assets and Resources that May Be Exposed Characteristics that Make those Elements More Susceptible to p Impact and Less Able to Cope Losses

Considerations
Like Maps, Estimations and Interpretations of Reality p, p y Practical Tools to Help Us Do Our Jobs More Effectively Address a Limited Number of Factors p p , What You Include Depends on Purpose, Goals and Constraints In order to effectively support DRR and EM, risk information must be relevant, accessible, understandable, and easily integrated and applied Supporting structures are important to success

Risk Assessment Roadmap

Purpose, Goals, and Objectives of Risk Assessment p , , j

Scale Participation and Roles P ti i ti dR l

Characterize Risk
Definitions Conceptualization Key Components and Categories

Analyze Ri k A l Risk
Methods Data Requirements and Collection Execution

Communicate C i t Risk
Representation Reporting Dissemination

Acknowledge and Address Risk

Policy Planning Mitigation Mainstreaming Etc.

Standardization/Interoperability

Questions?
Heather Bell PhD Bell, Science Advisor Editor-in-Chief, Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy Pacific Disaster Center 808.891.7942 hbell@pdc.org

www.pdc.org www.psocommons.org/rhcpp www psocommons org/rhcpp

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