JANUARY 2009 Introduction to climate change

What is climate change?

• Forestry: The forestry industry could
probably tolerate a small increase in
temperature, but a decrease in
• The climate of the world varies from one decade to another, and a changing climate is rainfall would reduce the area which
natural and expected. However, there is a well-founded concern that the can support plantations, and the growth
unprecedented human industrial and development activities of the past two centuries rate of the trees. A positive point is that
have caused changes over and above natural variation. rising carbondioxide could help reduce
• Climate change is the natural cycle through which the earth and its atmosphere are going water use by plantations.
to accommodate the change in the amount of energy received from the sun. The climate • The coastal zone: If the warming of
goes through warm and cold periods, taking hundreds of years to complete one cycle. ocean water were to continue
Changes in temperature also influence the rainfall, but the biosphere are able to adapt to unabated, the polar icecaps will melt
a changing climate if these changes take place over centuries. Unfortunately, human and the seal level will rise. This is
intervention is currently causing the climate to change too fast. (Climate models predict anticipated in the next century. The
that the mean air temperature over South Africa will increase with an estimated 2°C over consequences in South Africa of a small
the next century.) Plants and animals may not be able to adapt as quickly to this "rapid" sea level rise are not tibthtliiltilt
climate change as humans can, and therefore the whole ecosystem is in danger.
What can we do to slow the process down?
How does a changing climate influence South Africa? • The enhanced greenhouse effect can be slowed down by following two guidelines: (1)
Increase sinks and (2) decrease sources of greenhouse gases. A sinkis a process which
• Higher temperatures will influence the rainfall, but it is stilluncertain how the annual
removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. For example: growing a tree where
rainfall will change. It could increase in some parts of the country, and decrease in
one did not previously exist provides a sink for carbon dioxide, because the tree
other parts.
"extract" carbon dioxide for photosynthesis. A source is a place or activity from which
• Water resources: South Africa's industrial, domestic and agricultural users are highly greenhouse gases are emitted. This can be a process such as coal burning or a location
dependent on a reliable supply of water. A reduction in rainfall amount or variability, or such as cultivated fields.
an increase in evaporation (due to higher temperatures) would further strain the
• The Kyoto Protocol - The Kyoto Protocol is a legal instrument that is separate from,
already limited amount of water resources. An increase in rainfall, or a reduction in
but related to the Climate Change Convention. Countries ratifying the Protocol has
plant water use (due to a higher atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide) would
mainly the following obligations: (1) Developed countries are obliged to ensure that
ease the problem slightly.
their greenhouse gas emissions do not exceed the amounts assigned to them. (2)
• Human and animal health: There are several important insect-carried diseases of Climate change policies must be implemented. (3) Energy efficiency must be
humans and livestock which are sensitive to the climate. A small increase in enhanced. (4) Emissions in the waste and transport sectors must be limited and/or
temperature would allow, for instance, malaria to spread into areas which are currently reduced. (5) Sinks for greenhouse gases must be protected. (6) Market instruments
malaria-free, and would increase its severity in areas where it already occurs. that are counter productive to the aims of the Protocol should be phased out. (7)
• Maize and wheat: It is currently estimated Sustainable forms of agriculture and relevant research must be promoted. All these
that a 10% increase in rainfall coupled with an activities must be undertaken in
increase in carbon dioxide would lead to a 10- such a way that potentially
20% increase in wheat and maize production, adverse effects on developing
while a 10% decrease in rainfall would be countries are minimised.
approximately balanced by the rising carbon • The future of climate change
dioxide content of the atmosphere. Slightly issues in South Africa are on the
warmer temperatures may lead to a small moment mainly in the govern-
reduction in wheat yields, but would have little ment's hands. If they decide to
effect on maize. These predictions are not very ratify the Kyoto Protocol, it will
certain. involve changes in all the
• Grazing livestock: Most of South Africa, economic sectors -
especially the drier part, is used for grazing by
cattle, sheep and wildlife. Higher carbon
Photographs:Abraham de Wet
dioxide will lead to less protein in the grass,
Port Nolloth Municipality
which will reduce any benefit resulting from
increased plant growth. Less rainfall would Lesson plan, courtesy of Weather SA,
lead to proportionately less animal production. www.weathersa.co.za.

26 An introduction to climate change 27