United States Africa Command Public Affairs Office 20 October 2011

USAFRICOM - related news stories

Good morning. Please find attached news clips related to U.S. Africa Command and Africa, along with upcoming events of interest for October 20, 2011. Of interest in todays clips: In Washington: Continued reporting on the U.S. commitment to the Counter LRA mission. In Libya: Libyas National Transitional Council publicly backs Syrian opposition. In Somalia: An abducted French woman has died while being held captive. A mysterious man claiming to be an Al-Qaeda envoy dispenses aid in Somalia. In Kenya: Kenyan forces continue assault on Al-Shabaab forces in Somalia. Kenyan VP claims Kenya is not at war with Somalia, but trying to stabilize the security situation. Provided in text format for remote reading. Links work more effectively when this message is viewed as in HTML format. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Please send questions or comments to: africom-pao@africom.mil 421-2687 (+49-711-729-2687) -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Top News related to U.S. Africa Command and Africa Is The U.S. Racing to Stop a Rebel Assault in Africa? (Wired.com) http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/is-the-u-s-in-a-race-to-prevent-a-rebelassault-in-africa-ready/ 18 Oct 2011 By David Axe The Pentagon could be in a race to prevent a major rebel attack on African civilians, aid groups believe. Thats one disturbing possibility behind President Barack Obamas announcement of a new U.S. military mission to Central Africa.

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

Libya leads world in recognising Syrian opposition's right to rule (The Guardian) http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/19/libya-recognises-syrian-opposition-rightrule?newsfeed=true 19 Oct 2011 By Martin Chulov and Matthew Weaver Incumbent president Bashar al-Assad faces further pressure as National Transitional Council backs Syrian National Council. Kidnapped French woman dies in Somalia (Al Jazeera) http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/10/2011101985710861622.html 19 Oct 2011 A French woman who was kidnapped from her beach front home at a Kenyan resort island and taken to neighbouring Somalia has died, the French foreign ministry said. Mysterious al Qaeda 'envoy' dispenses aid in Somalia (CNN) http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/18/world/meast/somalia-al-shabaab-al-qaeda/ 18 October 2011 By Paul Cruickshank, CNN Terrorism Analyst Almuhajir has turned up in the desolate scrubland, they say, to offer al Qaeda's help with famine relief. Photographs show him at what appears to be an aid camp that Al-Shabaab claims it has set up for victims of the famine. The recording says he is delivering aid that al Qaeda had purportedly collected, including food, clothing and $12,000 converted into Somali currency. Kenya launches major air battle against al-Shabaab militants (Africa Review) http://www.africareview.com/News/Kenya+launches+major+air+assault+on+al+Shabaab +militants/-/979180/1258256/-/xheofpz/-/ 19 Oct 2011 Kenyan jets Wednesday pounded al-Shabaab positions in Somalia as its ground forces prepared for a fresh assault against the militant group that it has blamed for threatening its security and economic interests. Kenya Invades Somalia. Does It Get Any Dumber? (TIME) http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/10/19/kenya-invades-somalia-does-it-get-anydumber/ 19 Oct 2011 By Alex Perry The last few decades of US foreign policy - Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq - only underline how tricky invasions are, even for the most powerful. The last 20 years have also seen Somalia emerge with a particularly consistent record of chewing up anyone who arrives carrying a gun, including the U.N. and U.S. special operations troops (1992-3), Ethiopians (2006-9) and Ugandans and Burundians from an African Union peacekeeping force (2008-today). In Egypt, corruption cases had an American root (Washington Post)

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

http://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/in-egypt-corruption-had-an-americanroot/2011/10/07/gIQAApWoyL_story.html 20 Oct 2011 By James V. Grimaldi and Robert OHarrow Jr. Beginning two decades ago, the United States government bankrolled an Egyptian think tank dedicated to economic reform. A different outcome is only now becoming visible in the fallout from Egypts Arab Spring. ### -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------UN News Service Africa Briefs http://www.un.org/apps/news/region.asp?Region=AFRICA ICC asks Malawi to explain failure to arrest Sudans President on visit 19 October The International Criminal Court (ICC) today requested Malawi to explain its alleged failure to arrest and surrender to the court Sudans President Omar Hassan alBashir who is wanted on charges of crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide. Ban calls for integrated strategy against maritime piracy in Gulf of Guinea 19 October Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today urged States and regional organizations in West Africas Gulf of Guinea to develop a comprehensive and integrated strategy to combat maritime piracy, which he said threatens to hinder economic development and undermine security in the region. (Full Articles on UN Website) ### -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upcoming Events of Interest: 25 Oct 2011 U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Deployment of U.S. Forces in Central Africa and Implementation of The Lords Resistance Army Disarmament and Northern Uganda Recovery Act Time: 10:00 AM Location: Room 2172 of the Rayburn House Office Building Witnesses: The Honorable Donald Yamamoto Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs U.S. Department of State

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

The Honorable Alexander Vershbow (Invited) Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs U.S. Department of Defense ### -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------New on www.africom.mil NATO: End in Sight as Libya Mission Continues http://www.africom.mil/getArticle.asp?art=7343&lang=0 By Donna Miles American Forces Press Service WASHINGTON, D.C., Oct 19, 2011 As U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton visits Libya October 18, 2011 to reaffirm U.S. support for the country's transitional government, NATO officials emphasized that the mission there, while nearing completion, isn't over. "It is premature to set a timetable now" for ending Operation Unified Protector, NATO deputy spokeswoman Carmen Romero told reporters in Brussels. TRANSCRIPT: Officials Provide Background on Secretary of State Clinton's Visit to Tripoli http://www.africom.mil/getArticle.asp?art=7342&lang=0 U.S. Department of State Two senior U.S. Department of State officials provided a background briefing, October 17, 2011, on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to Tripoli, Libya. Clinton is the first cabinet level U.S. official to visit Tripoli since Condoleezza Rice's visit in 2008. ### -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------FULL TEXT Is The U.S. Racing to Stop a Rebel Assault in Africa? (Wired.com) http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/is-the-u-s-in-a-race-to-prevent-a-rebelassault-in-africa-ready/ 18 Oct 2011 By David Axe The Pentagon could be in a race to prevent a major rebel attack on African civilians, aid groups believe. Thats one disturbing possibility behind President Barack Obamas announcement of a new U.S. military mission to Central Africa. On Friday, Obama informed Congress of the deployment of around 100 combatequipped U.S. troops to help the Ugandan army track down rebel leader Joseph Kony
U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

and his cultish Lords Resistance Army, currently hiding out somewhere in South Sudan, northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo and southern Central African Republic. The first group of Americans is already on the ground in Uganda. Obamas announcement raised more questions than it answered. The U.S. has been quietly involved in the war on the LRA for several years, even helping the Ugandans plan a 2008 raid that missed Kony and sparked a bloody LRA reprisal. So why make such a big deal out of the latest effort? Could the new deployment represent the beginning of another U.S. shadow war waged by commandos and killer drones? And why now? The LRA has been raping and pillaging across Central Africa for 20 years. What, besides a widely-ignored 2010 law, compelled Washington to try again to defeat the group? Paul Ronan, from the aid group Resolve, explained one theory. Reports indicate that Konys top lieutenants, previously scattered across thousands of square miles of thick forest, recently came together for the first time in years, possible to plan a fresh assault on vulnerable communities. We dont know that this big gathering of LRA commanders will result in new attacks, but theyve certainly used previous meetings to plan attacks on civilians in the past, so everyone is kind of holding their breath, Ronan told Danger Room. Resolve and a partner aid group, Invisible Children, have created an online tool called the LRA Crisis Tracker that allows anyone with Internet access to track LRA sightings. Multiple reports from former LRA abductees indicate that key members of the LRA command structure gathered in southeast Central African Republic between June and September of 2011, Ronan said. The meeting reportedly included Dominic Ongwen, a former child soldier indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court. By late September an LRA group of 100 to 200 had split up and was heading into South Sudan and towards Congo, split between four and five groups, Ronan added. What theyre up to, is anyones guess but it cant be good. And if their intentions include a large-scale assault on innocent civilians, it could explain why the Pentagon is in a hurry to intervene. ### Libya leads world in recognising Syrian opposition's right to rule (The Guardian) Incumbent president Bashar al-Assad faces further pressure as National Transitional Council backs Syrian National Council http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/19/libya-recognises-syrian-opposition-rightrule?newsfeed=true 19 Oct 2011 By Martin Chulov and Matthew Weaver

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

Libya's interim government has become the first in the world to recognise Syria's opposition movement as a "legitimate authority" to rule Syria. The body that toppled the former Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi after more than 40 years claimed the Syrian National Council was "more representative" than the incumbent president, Bashar al-Assad, who has battled a sustained popular revolt that threatens to oust his regime for the past six months. The suggestion will anger the Assad regime, which was a staunch supporter of Gaddafi and now fears the Arab League is mounting a co-ordinated challenge to its authority. On Sunday night, the Arab League gave Syria 15 days to stop a bloody crackdown against demonstrators. Some Gulf states have urged suspending Syria from the organisation. A suspension would pose a serious challenge to Assad, who claims the uprising is an Islamic conspiracy backed by the US and Israel. He has vowed to implement a range of reforms, which would cede some power in the highly centralised state to opposition groups and remove the Ba'ath party from its omnipotent role in public life. Syrian officials have warned of a strong response to attempts by Arab League members to delegitimise Assad's rule, which has dominated Syria for more than four decades. . The Syrian National Council, an umbrella group for opposition entities, has won support from some EU states, as well as Turkey and the US. But all have described the group as a work in progress and not yet a viable governing authority. However, Guma al-Gamaty, the UK-based co-ordinator for Libya's National Transitional Council, which now holds interim government status, said it was not premature to acknowledge a new authority in Syria. "The nature of the Syrian regime is very similar to the former Gaddafi regime," he said. "We feel the Syrian people have been let down by the world, and they need moral and political support. "We are a free country now, and we don't recognise the Assad regime as a legitimate political entity. The Syrian National Council is much more representative of the Syrian people than the Assad regime. "We went through the same process. We got political recognition and political support from various countries, and that was crucial for taking away legitimacy from Gaddafi. We think the Syrians are entitled to the same. "Hopefully it will set a precedent for other countries to do the same. I sincerely hope that other free countries will realise that Assad has lost political legitimacy. "The council speaks for the Syrian people, it represents a wide array of groups and personalities. And we share its values." Clashes have continued in Syria's fourth city, Homs, where an armed fightback against government troops has been going on for at least a month.
U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

Defectors from security forces are leading the fighting, and are actively seeking weapons from outside the country. A further nine people are reported to have been killed in Homs in the last 24 hours. The toll during seven months of largely peaceful protests in Syria is now more than 3,000. More than 1,100 members of the security forces are also believed to have been killed. Attacks against security force members have increased in recent weeks. ### Kidnapped French woman dies in Somalia (Al Jazeera) http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/10/2011101985710861622.html 19 Oct 2011 A French woman who was kidnapped from her beach front home at a Kenyan resort island and taken to neighbouring Somalia has died, the French foreign ministry said. "The contacts through which the French government was seeking to obtain the release of Marie Dedieu, held in Somalia since October 1, have announced her death, but we have not been able to determine the date nor the circumstances," the foreign ministry said on Wednesday. The ministry said that the kidnappers "probably refused to give her the medication we sent her". However, her exact cause of death has not been confirmed. Al Jazeera's Peter Greste, reporting from Nairobi, explained that Dedieu suffered a number of ailments for which she took daily medication. "Marie Dedieu was a 66-year-old lady. She was wheel-chair bound. She was suffering from cancer and from heart disease. She needed daily medication. And when she was kidnapped from the island near Lamu, she didn't have those medications with her," he said. "We understand that the French authorities tried to get the medication to her, but for one reason or another - whether it was deliberate or by neglect - it seems she wasn't able to get the help that she needed and she may have died." Kenya's government blamed the attack on Somali fighters from the al-Shabab group. Dedieu was captured from an island resort near the northern Kenyan town of Lamu on October 1. Residents said the abduction appeared to have been a planned, targeted attack, according to witnesses.

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

The armed gang landed on Manda island by boat and fired several gunshots before ordering the woman, her boyfriend and the house-helps to lie face to the floor. One of the gunmen grabbed the victim and carried her to an awaiting boat. 'Unqualified barbarism' Her Kenyan boyfriend, John Lepapa, said: "All they were saying was 'where is the foreigner, where is the foreigner?'". Lepapa, 39, said he had been questioned by counter-terrorism police several hours after the attack and that he and his partner had returned two days earlier from France, where they spend part of the year. "My girlfriend pleaded with them and told them to take whatever they wanted from the house, including the money and to spare her life," said Lepapa. "But they would not listen." The ministry said it had informed Dedieu's family of her death and was demanding the unconditional return of her remains. "The French government expresses its profound shock, great sadness and solidarity with the family and loved ones of Marie Dedieu," it said. "It also expresses its indignation at the cruelty and complete absence of humanity shown by our compatriot's abductors, whom we want to see identified and brought to justice." Alain Juppe, French foreign minister, told reporters that Dedieu's death was "an act of unqualified barbarism, violence and brutality". "We condemn this in the strongest possible terms. We did everything possible to try to obtain her release, we tried to send medication by numerous different channels and apparently these savages could not care less." ### Mysterious al Qaeda 'envoy' dispenses aid in Somalia (CNN) http://edition.cnn.com/2011/10/18/world/meast/somalia-al-shabaab-al-qaeda/ 18 October 2011 By Paul Cruickshank, CNN Terrorism Analyst The mysterious visitor stands in a patch of scrubland in Somalia, surrounded by Islamic militants wielding AK-47s. His face is covered by a white-and-red headscarf; he is slim and seems young. But there is something puzzling about him: His skin is fair, and when he speaks in an audio recording, his English is near perfect and spoken with a North American accent.
U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

The militants -- belonging to Al-Shabaab -- say his name is Abu Abdulla Almuhajir (the foreigner). And they say he is an envoy from the al Qaeda leader, Ayman al Zawahiri, thousands of miles away in Pakistan. Almuhajir has turned up in the desolate scrubland, they say, to offer al Qaeda's help with famine relief. Photographs show him at what appears to be an aid camp that Al-Shabaab claims it has set up for victims of the famine. The recording says he is delivering aid that al Qaeda had purportedly collected, including food, clothing and $12,000 converted into Somali currency. A video showing the images and audio recording was posted to Islamist websites last week. U.S. counter-terrorism agencies are still trying to ascertain Almuhajir's identity and whether he really was an al Qaeda envoy -- about which there is some doubt. The event, at which a large group of Somalis were shown sitting crossed-legged on the ground, was clearly a propaganda ploy by Al-Shabaab to boost its popularity -- and that of the al Qaeda brand. International aid agencies have sharply criticized the group for banning or obstructing aid in areas in central and southern Somalia worst hit by the famine. The group's brutal imposition of Taliban-like practices in territory under its control has also alienated many Somalis. If authentic, the event suggests a strengthening of the relationship between hard-line factions of Al-Shabaab and al Qaeda. Though factions of the group have long been allied with al Qaeda and share its vision of global jihad, the video of the meeting would be a rare demonstration of such ties. The so-called emissary told his Somali audience that al Qaeda felt their pain and urged Muslims to support Al-Shabaab, which is fighting Somalia's government in an effort to implement a stricter form of Islamic law. He also recalled Osama bin Laden's long interest in Somalia, saying he "played a major role in repelling invading forces of the Muslim land in Somalia." And Almuhajir promised that al Qaeda's new leader, Zawahiri, would continue that support. "In a recent release, Sheikh Ayman brought the drought in Somalia to the attention of the Muslim Ummah (or global Muslim community) and encouraged them to support their brothers in Somalia," he said. Western counter-terrorism analysts have been puzzling over the identity of "the foreigner." Several Americans and Canadians are believed to have joined al Qaeda in Pakistan in recent years and risen through the group's hierarchy. The most prominent has been Oregon-born Adam Gadahn, 33, al Qaeda's English-language spokesman who joined forces with the group around a decade ago. But counter-terrorism analysts say that Gadahn's voice (and waistline) is very different from that of the mysterious al Qaeda envoy pictured in the Al-Shabaab video.
U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

Another candidate is Adnan Shukrijumah, 36, an American citizen born in Saudi Arabia who spent much of his youth in New York and South Florida, who joined al Qaeda around the time of 9/11 and rose up the ranks to become a planner for the group's external operations. But the envoy appears to have fairer skin than Shukrijumah. And then there is Jude Kenan Mohammed, 22, from Raleigh, North Carolina. He is believed to be still at large in Pakistan after leaving the United States in October 2008 to allegedly wage jihad. Just after he arrived, he was arrested by Pakistani officials, charged with weapons possession and released on bail. The following year, he failed to show up to his court hearing, suggesting he may have slipped into tribal areas. It may be that the whole event was manufactured in an effort to bolster Al-Shabaab's credentials after a series of military setbacks. Sending an al Qaeda envoy from Pakistan to Somalia -- especially a Caucasian -- would be risky. And there are more than a dozen North Americans (from both the U.S. and Canada) who have gravitated to Somalia to wage jihad in recent years, among them Abu Mansoor al-Amriki. The 27-year old from Alabama, whose real name is Omar Hammami, has produced Al-Shabaab hip-hop videos in an effort to extend the group's appeal to English-speaking youths. Despite several unconfirmed reports that he had been killed, Hammami remains on the FBI's mostwanted list. But his voice is not an obvious match to that of the mysterious al Qaeda envoy. Al-Shabaab still controls most of central and southern Somalia, and has recently shown ambitions to take its campaign beyond Somalia's borders. In July 2010, the group carried out a pair of deadly bombings in Kampala, Uganda, killing more than 70 people. it was the first attack the group launched outside Somalia, and was in retaliation, Al-Shabaab claimed, for Uganda's deployment of peace support forces in Somalia. In September, the U.S. Africa Command warned that Al-Shabaab, Boko Haram in Nigeria and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb were trying to synchronize their efforts to launch attacks on U.S and Western interests, but had yet to show a significant capability to export terror. There is also evidence, according to Western intelligence officials, of cooperation between Al-Shabaab and the al Qaeda affiliate in Yemen. But within Somalia, the group is under growing pressure. It has been pushed from its last redoubts in the capital, Mogadishu, even though it retains the ability to launch suicide bombings in the city. And in recent weeks, Kenya has accused Al-Shabaab of kidnapping Western tourists and aid workers in northern Kenya, allegations which the Somali group denies. Kenyan troops have launched a cross-border operation against Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia with the apparent intention of setting up a buffer zone across the border. That's prompted the threat of retaliatory strikes inside Kenya. "The Kenyan public must understand that the impetuous decision by their troops to cross the border into Somalia will not be without severe repercussions," the group said in a news release in English on Monday.
U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

Somalia analysts view this threat as real but believe Al-Shabaab will carefully weigh the costs and benefits of any such reprisal. The Somali group has an extensive presence in Nairobi -- home to a quarter-million Somali refugees -- and operates a network of safe houses in the city. "They could easily tear apart Nairobi, but they've done nothing there at all because they realize this is their golden egg," said Michael Taarnby, an Al-Shabaab expert at the University of Central Florida. ### Kenya launches major air battle against al-Shabaab militants (Africa Review) http://www.africareview.com/News/Kenya+launches+major+air+assault+on+al+Shabaab +militants/-/979180/1258256/-/xheofpz/-/ 19 Oct 2011 Kenyan jets Wednesday pounded al-Shabaab positions in Somalia as its ground forces prepared for a fresh assault against the militant group that it has blamed for threatening its security and economic interests. The airstrikes were carried out in the stretch of land between Kismayu, an al-Shabaab port city stronghold and the border with Kenya. On the fourth day of the operation code named Operation Okoa Nchi (Swahili for operation Save the Nation), Kenya's Foreign Affairs minister Moses Wetangula also launched a diplomatic offensive to win international backers to the country's invasion. Mr Wetangula and Defence Minister Yusuf Haji visited Addis Ababa in Ethiopia, the headquarters of the Africa Union and also held talks with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. The two ministers had Tuesday visited Mogadishu where they agreed on a joint strategy to fight the militants.

Kenya President Mwai Kibaki was yet to comment on the offensive although a cabinet meeting on Tuesday backed the operation. But the country's vice president Kalonzo Musyoka on Wednesday in Nairobi said that that Kenya was not fighting Somalia as a country but wanted to stop the militant group threatening its economic and security interests. The military offensive was sparked by the kidnapping of two Spanish aid workers in the refugee camp of Daadab by suspected al-Shabaab members of the group. ###

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

Kenya Invades Somalia. Does It Get Any Dumber? (TIME blog) http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/10/19/kenya-invades-somalia-does-it-get-anydumber/ 19 Oct 2011 By Alex Perry If the history of war teaches us anything, it's that invading a foreign country is dicey. Storming across too many borders was the undoing of many of the world's great conquerors, from Alexander the Great to Napoleon to the Nazis. The last few decades of US foreign policy - Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq - only underline how tricky invasions are, even for the most powerful. The last 20 years have also seen Somalia emerge with a particularly consistent record of chewing up anyone who arrives carrying a gun, including the U.N. and U.S. special operations troops (1992-3), Ethiopians (2006-9) and Ugandans and Burundians from an African Union peacekeeping force (2008-today). So what does Kenya think it's doing? On Sunday, a force estimated variously at a few hundred to 2,000 Kenyan soldiers crossed the border into Somalia into pursuit of militants from the Somali Islamist group, al-Shabab. The invasion came after a rash of armed incursions into Kenya from Somalia. On Sept. 11, Somali gunmen killed British tourist David Tebbutt, 58, and abducted his wife Judith, 56, from a resort on the northern Kenyan coast. In a second attack on a nearby beach hotel on Oct. 1, another group of Somali gunmen kidnapped a 66-year-old disabled French tourist, Marie Dedieu, who was confirmed dead on Wednesday. And then on Oct. 13, a third group of kidnappers took two Spanish aid workers from Dadaab, a camp in northern Kenyan -- the biggest refugee settlement in the world, set up 20 years ago for those fleeing fighting and famine in Somalia. Starting a war is not an obvious way to bolster a country's reputation for safety and security. Starting a war with an al-Qaeda affiliate who have previously carried out attacks abroad (in Kampala in July 2010 two al-Shabab suicide bombers killed 76 people) and who have been itching for an excuse to do the same to you carries even more obvious risks. But starting a war in which your invading forces are outnumbered from the beginning (al-Shabab has around 2,500 men at arms), and doing that just as the rainy season starts, is bat crazy. Sure enough, by Wednesday the Kenyans and their Somali allies were stuck in torrential rains and thick mud 20 miles short of their first objective of the al-Shabab-ruled town Afmadow. Even if the occupiers can extract themselves from the literal quagmire, analysts unanimously agree they will find it all but impossible to avoid becoming militarily bogged down. Faced with al-Shabab's well-armed, experienced and more numerous guerrillas - fighters who two years ago saw off a far fiercer, better trained and bigger Ethiopian force - Kenya's soldiers seem headed for deadlock at best and, at worst, bloody defeat. What's worse, the Kenyan invasion seems likely to reunify al-Shabab just as it was in danger of splintering over disagreements about leadership and whether to accept aid to alleviate an ongoing famine in southern Somalia. It could even help restore al-Shabab's plummeting local support.
U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

History may be littered with warnings about just this kind of action but still, rarely has disaster been so plainly foretold. As an al-Shabab spokesman, Ali Mohamud Rage, told the BBC, while vowing retaliatory attacks on Nairobi: "Kenya doesn't know war. We know war. We have fought against governments older and stronger than Kenya and we have defeated them." ### In Egypt, corruption cases had an American root http://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/in-egypt-corruption-had-an-americanroot/2011/10/07/gIQAApWoyL_story.html 20 Oct 2011 By James V. Grimaldi and Robert OHarrow Jr. IN CAIRO Beginning two decades ago, the United States government bankrolled an Egyptian think tank dedicated to economic reform. A different outcome is only now becoming visible in the fallout from Egypts Arab Spring. Formed with a $10 million endowment from the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies gathered captains of industry in a small circle with the presidents son Gamal Mubarak at the center. Over time, members of the group would assume top roles in Egypts ruling party and government. Today, Gamal Mubarak and four of those think tank members are in jail, charged with squandering public funds in the sale of public resources, lands and government-run companies as part of a dramatic restructuring. Some have fled the country, pilloried amid the public outrage over insider deals and corruption that toppled President Hosni Mubarak. It became a crony capitalism, Magda Kandil, the think tanks new executive director, said of the privatization program advocated by its founders. Because of the corruption, the center now estimates, the assets that Egypt has sold off since 1991 have netted only about $10 billion, $90 billion less than their estimated worth. The privatization saga is a cautionary tale about the power and perils of U.S. foreign aid most notably the nearly $8 billion that the United States has provided to Egypt since the 1990s to push the country toward economic reforms. Gamal Mubarak, 47, and the others deny any wrongdoing and are fighting corruption charges filed by the new Egyptian government, saying they have been trumped up to placate street protesters calling for retribution. The defendants also assert that the deals were legal under existing laws. But the arc of the American-backed privatization effort in Egypt recalls years of questions from critics about the transparency and effectiveness of the more than $70
U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

billion in military and economic assistance to that country over the past six decades, the most aid given to any country other than Israel. Although U.S. officials have not publicly raised questions about the funding to ECES, as the economic think tank is known, they expressed concerns in confidential cables that privatization efforts could lead to high-level corruption, according to a review of hundreds of WikiLeaks documents by The Washington Post. The privatization and economic opening of recent years have created new opportunities for vertical corruption at upper levels of government affecting state resources, said one confidential State Department cable written by an unidentified diplomat in 2006, quoting Hitler Tantawi, a former chief of an internal government financial watchdog called the Administrative Control Authority. Officials at USAID declined to discuss their support of the Egyptian think tank, privatization efforts in the country or the sentiments shared in the confidential cables. In a statement, the agency said it took measures to ensure that the grants to ECES were properly used. ECES is a reputable think tank and research center that has produced many valuable economic research papers over the last 20 years, the agency said. The path to privatization Since the 1970s, USAID has provided billions of dollars in economic help to Egypt in exchange for promises of liberalization of the socialist economy created in the 1950s by President Gamal Abdel Nasser. Despite those promises, Egypts privatization initially moved at a glacial pace, in part because Hosni Mubaraks tenuous hold on power made him reluctant to risk pushing against popular opposition. By the end of the 1980s, the public sector still constituted more than half of Egypts industrial production and 90 percent of its banking and insurance industries. At least 20 percent of the workforce was in the public sector. But the picture began to change in the early 1990s, after a financial crisis in Egypt, when international lenders said they were no longer willing to float an economy so dependent on state-run enterprises. In exchange for bailouts, Egypt agreed to make the types of structural reforms that were sweeping the planet after the collapse of Soviet communism. Policymakers envisioned the market pulling the masses out of poverty, as well as spurring a middle class and ultimately democratic reforms. The worldwide effort came to be called the Washington Consensus.

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

In Egypt, privatization had a powerful champion in Gamal Mubarak. He was a graduate of the American University of Cairo and began his career as an investment banker at Bank of America in London. Gamal and his older brother, Alaa, founded Medinvest, becoming capitalist converts and earning a fortune by buying and selling Egyptian debt, according to allegations by Egyptian prosecutors. As Gamal Mubarak became more deeply involved in public life, he moved toward the Washington Consensus with a single-minded commitment. He had an ally in an ambitious lawyer named M. Taher Helmy, who helped draft legislation in 1991 that authorized Egypts privatization program, with a plan to privatize more than 350 companies worth $104 billion. A year later, Mubarak teamed up with Helmy to create the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies to promote market reforms through books, policy papers and conferences. The centers primary source of revenue came from the $10 million endowment from USAID. Some privatization deals occurred in the 1990s. But meaningful change, involving major government assets, came only after Gamal Mubarak and fellow reformers gained control of the National Democratic Party, the ruling party of Egypt. Then the reforms came in a cascade of new policies and laws, many of them based directly on the papers produced by the U.S.-funded ECES. In 2002, Mubarak formed the partys powerful policies committee. Following his lead, the partys general assembly quickly appointed other ECES members to the committee, including Helmy, who was the think tanks chairman at the time. In a speech promoting new thinking, Mubarak said that economic growth must come through the perfect application of free-market principles. The rhetoric came straight out of ECES policy papers. Privatization deals came quickly. In 2003, Egypt privatized nine companies worth about $18 million. In 2005 and 2006, the number of deals soared to 59, worth $2.6 billion. The changes appeared to benefit the overall economy in Egypt, as the gross domestic product doubled and growth hit 7 percent. But behind the scenes, American diplomats warned of potential trouble. U.S. Ambassador Frank Ricciardone wrote in a classified embassy cable in early 2006 that the interests of high-level members of the political party and Hosni Mubaraks regime could pose a risk to reform. Corruption also remains a significant impediment to growth, and may become more difficult to control as economic reform progresses, he wrote. But finally, privatization was in full throttle with ECES in the center of the action.
U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

Insiders benefit Some of the privatization deals included the titans of business involved in ECES. And some of them were handled by Helmys firm. They included Egypts $1.6 billion sale of the National Bank of Alexandria and the $892 million sell-off of Telecom Egypt. ECES was simply in the right place at the right time, Mahmoud Mohieldin, then chairman of the National Democratic Partys economic committee and a key figure at ECES, told Bruce Rutherford, a political scientist at Colgate University, for a book,Egypt After Mubarak. It had a set of proposals already on hand that harmonized with where the government wanted to go. Under Helmys leadership, the Cairo office of the giant Chicago-based international law firm Baker & McKenzie handled more than $3 billion of the privatization deals, including the governments sale of assets, companies and land, according to information on the firms Web site, news releases and news accounts. The firm has represented the government in deals and helped private-sector companies acquire government-run enterprises. Helmy has long maintained that he was working to benefit the nation. We help because its our duty as Egyptians, he told the publication Business Today Egypt in 2004. We want to help the country advance by drafting legislation to match the fast development of economic policies. Among those who allegedly benefited from ties to ECES, Gamal Mubarak and the privatization effort was Ahmed Ezz, a founding member of ECES and a leading member of parliament and the former ruling party. Once known as the steel king, Ezz built the state-owned Alexandria National Iron and Steel into the largest steel producer in the Middle East, with more than 7,000 employees. Helmys firm handled the transactions for Ezz Steel. In 1998, with the company facing bankruptcy, Ezz began buying shares, with help from then-Minister of Industry Ibrahim Salem Mohamadein. Prosecutors allege that he made more than $1 billion in inappropriate profits over the next decade as he acquired more than half of the state-run companys shares. Ezz also benefited from laws written and pushed for by ECES colleagues and privatization advocates, who also served with him on the National Democratic Partys policies committee or in the government, according to a recent study by the German Marshall Fund of the United States. In 2004, for instance, a law first drafted by Helmy slashed the corporate tax rate to 20 percent, leading to a windfall for Ezzs steel empire.
U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil

### END REPORT

U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Office +49(0)711-729-2687 AFRICOM-PAO@africom.mil