FWCE 455: Environmental Risks and Decisions Unit 1: Risk and Uncertainty

Dr. Mark Andersen Fall 2011

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011

Risk is the chance that something bad will happen

The probability within a specific time horizon of an adverse event with specific consequences.

All decisions involve risk

Even if it's only the risk of being wrong

Risks and Decisions: Introduction

Risk assessments help us make decisions when we are uncertain about the future Environmental risk assessments concern risks to 1) Species and populations 2) Habitats and communities 3) Ecosystems and landscapes

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011

Risk assessment forces us to think about rare events that live in the tails of the probability distributions of our data

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011

Risk assessments always include multiple kinds of uncertainty

Unquantified Quantified

Direct measurements Prediction from theory Extrapolation from similar situations Expert opinion

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011

Science makes uncertainty seem to disappear

Taxon Estimated # of spp. worlwide 500,000 100,000 250,000 3,000,000 40,000 4000 6000 9500 4500 Number Number Number Number threatened in threatened in threatened in threatened in Australia USA China UK 0 0 1597 372 54 20 42 51 43 0 0 1845 860 174 16 23 46 22 0 0 343 13 16 0 8 86 42 46 70 61 171 7 3 6 25 18

Fungi Nonvascular plants Vascular plants Invertebrates Fish Amphibians Reptiles Birds Mammals

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011

Acknowledging uncertainty forces us to think about probability

Probability as

Statistical frequency Subjective probability

Lack of knowledge Degree of belief

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011

Probability terms

Chance Belief Tendency Credibility Possibility Plausibility Confidence Bounds Likelihood Risk

(Burgman, p. 9) Know the definitions of each of these terms

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011

The historical origins of thinking about risk are linked with the historical origins of thinking about probability Games of chance (another example of faulty risk perception)

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011

Probabilities apply to risks

The chance that something bad will happen.

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011

Probabilities also apply to decisions

Expected gain (or loss) from the outcome of a choice or decision weighted by the probability of that outcome. (Need decision rules based on those expected gains and losses.)

Risk and uncertainty Dr. Mark Andersen 2011