Finding

probabilities.. When you are asked to find a probability of an EVENT you need to know A) B) A list of all the possible outcomes (Sample Space) Each outcomes probability * Sometimes you are given this info * Sometimes you need to calculate it first

Once you have the above info (whether given to youor you calculated it)....to find the Probability for a specific EVENT you need to C) Figure out which outcomes are described by the event D) ADD UP the probabilities.

EXAMPLES WHERE YOU ARE ALREADY GIVEN THE TABLE. Phenomenon.choose one student at random and note their grade
Grade Probability A 0.15 B 0.35 C 0.40 D 0.06 F 0.04

Sample Space S = {A, B, C, D, F} Event E = Person received a passing grade

Grade Probability A 0.15 B 0.35 C 0.40

D 0.06

Outcomes in E = {A, B, C}
F 0.04

P(E) = 0.15 + 0.35 + 0.40 = 0.90 Event G = Person did not receive a passing grade
Grade Probability A 0.15 B 0.35 C 0.40 D 0.06

Outcomes in G = {D, F}
F 0.04

P(G) = 0.06 + 0.04 = 0.10

Choose a student at random and note their gender and class level.
Male Female Freshman 0.16 0.24 Class Level Sophomore Junior 0.17 0.05 0.13 0.15 Senior 0.02 0.08

Gender

Here are some different EVENTS.. A = student is a Freshman B = student is a Female P(A) = 0.16 + 0.24 = 0.40
Male Female Freshman 0.16 0.24 Class Level Sophomore 0.17 0.13 Junior 0.05 0.15

C = Student is not a Junior

Gender

Senior 0.02 0.08

P(B) = 0.24 + 0.13 + 0.15 + 0.08 = 0.60

Male Female Freshman 0.16 0.24 Class Level Sophomore 0.17 0.13 Junior 0.05 0.15 Senior 0.02 0.08

Gender

P(C) = 0.16 + 0.24 + 0.17 + 0.13 + 0.02 + 0.08 = 0.80 Orcould have used complement rule P(C)= 1 P(Junior) = 1 0.20 = 0.80
Male Female Freshman 0.16 0.24 Class Level Sophomore 0.17 0.13 Junior 0.05 0.15 Senior 0.02 0.08

Gender

P(A or B) = 0.16 + 0.24 + 0.13 + 0.15 + 0.08 = 0.76

Male Female Freshman 0.16 0.24 Class Level Sophomore 0.17 0.13 Junior 0.05 0.15 Senior 0.02 0.08

Gender

P(A and B) = 0.24

Male Female Freshman 0.16 0.24 Class Level Sophomore 0.17 0.13 Junior 0.05 0.15 Senior 0.02 0.08

Gender

Examples where you need to make the TABLE FIRST! Phenomenon: Choose one student from morning class & one student from afternoon classand note their class levels Each class individual probability tables. THIS IS NOT THE TABLE for the phenomenon choose two students
Freshman (F) Morning Class Sophomore Junior (S) (J) Senior (Se) Freshman (F) Afternoon Class Sophomore Junior (S) (J) Senior (Se)

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.1

S = {FF, FS, FJ, FSe, SF, SS, SJ, SSe, JF, JS, JJ, JSe, SeF, SeS, SeJ, SeSe} - 16 TOTAL OUTCOMES Note: FSe = Freshman from morning class & Senior from Afternoon class JJ = Junior from morning class & Junior from afternoon class To find probability for each of these..use MULTIPLICATION RULE Example: P(FSe) = P(Freshman from morning class) x P(Senior from afternoon class) = (0.4) x (0.1) Here is the completed tableYOU WOULD NEED TO FIGURE THIS OUT.I worked it out for you.
FF 0.12 FS 0.16 FJ 0.08 FSE 0.04 SF 0.09 SS 0.12 SJ 0.06 Sse 0.03 JF 0.06 JS 0.08 JJ 0.04 Jse 0.02 SeF 0.03 SeS 0.04 SeJ 0.02 SeSe 0.01

NOW THAT YOU HAVE MADE THE TABLEYOU CAN USE IT TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT PROBABILITIES.. A = Students are the same class level P(A) = 0.12 + 0.12 + 0.04 + 0.01 = 0.29
FF 0.12 FS 0.16 FJ 0.08 FSE 0.04 SF 0.09 SS 0.12 SJ 0.06 Sse 0.03 JF 0.06 JS 0.08 JJ 0.04 Jse 0.02 SeF 0.03 SeS 0.04 SeJ 0.02 SeSe 0.01

Note: The ones hi-lighted satisfy the event, same class level. B = At least one freshman was chosen (from either class) P(B) = 0.12 + 0.16 + 0.08 + 0.04 + 0.09 + 0.06 + 0.03 = 0.58
FF 0.12 FS 0.16 FJ 0.08 FSE 0.04 SF 0.09 SS 0.12 SJ 0.06 Sse 0.03 JF 0.06 JS 0.08 JJ 0.04 Jse 0.02 SeF 0.03 SeS 0.04 SeJ 0.02 SeSe 0.01

Note: the ones hi-lighted have satisfy the event, at least one freshman

Phenomenon: 3 students walk through the door, and we will note whether they are male or female. * We will assume that each student walking through the door is independent of the others For ONE student: P(F) = 0.7 P(M) = 0.3 What is S? S = {FFF, FFM, FMF, MFF, FMM, MFM, MMF, MMM} Note: FMF = 1st person is female, 2nd person is male, 3rd person is female Here is the probability table: I have calculated all of them for youYOU WOULD NEED TO DO THIS Outcome FFF FFM FMF MFF FMM MFM MMF MMM

Probability = 0.343 = 0.147 = 0.147 = 0.147 = 0.063 = 0.063 = 0.063 = 0.027 Event A = Students are all the same gender P(A) = 0.343 + 0.027 = 0.370
FFF 0.343 FFM 0.147 FMF 0.147 MFF 0.147 FMM 0.063 MFM 0.063 MMF 0.063 MMM 0.027

(.7)(.7)(.7)

(.7)(.7)(.3)

(.7)(.3)(.7)

(.3)(.7)(.7)

(.7)(.3)(.3)

(.3)(.7)(.3)

(.7)(.7)(.3)

(.3)(.3)(.3)

The hi-lighted ones satisfy, all the same gender

Event B = At least one of the students is female P(B) = 0.343 + 0.147 + 0.147 + 0.147 + 0.063 + 0.063 + 0.063 = 0.973 [HARD WAY] P(B) = 1 P(BC) [EASY WAY] = 1 0.027 = 0.973
FFF 0.343 FFM 0.147 FMF 0.147 MFF 0.147 FMM 0.063 MFM 0.063 MMF 0.063 MMM 0.027

Additional Examples.. Probability that a single person is color blind is 0.08 P(color blind) = 0.08 10 people walk through the door, what is the probability that at least one of them is color blind? EASY WAY: A = at least one is color blind AC = none are color blind P(A) = 1 P(AC) = 1 (0.92)10 = 1 0.4344 = 0.5656 HARD WAY: * Figure out all of the outcomes (there are 1,024 outcomes in S) * Calculate the probability for each of them using the multiplication rule For example: One outcome is YYNNNYNNYY (Y = IS colorblind, N = IS NOT colorblind) P(YYNNNYNNYY) = (.08)(.08)(.92)(.92)(.92)(.08)(.92)(.92)(.08)(.08) = 0.00000216 * Then figure out which outcomes satisfy at least one is color blind and ADD them up TOO MUCH WORK THIS WAY! What you are doing in the easy way Out of the 1,024 outcomes.there is only one that satisfies NONE are color blind. AC = {NNNNNNNNNN} - This is the only outcome where all of them are Ns P(AC) = (.92)(.92)(.92).(.92) .92 multiplied by itself 10 times (.92)10 Why (0.92)10, and not (0.08)10? Because since for one person, P(color blind) = 0.08 Then for one person, P(not color blind) = 1 0.08 = 0.92 Another example.. Probability that a person likes statistics is 0.15. If 20 students walk in the room, what is the probability that at least one of them likes statistics? (We are assuming each student is independent of the other). P(at least one likes stats) = 1 P(none of them like stats) = 1 (0.85)20 = 1 0.0388 = 0.9162