Diplomatic Pressure on Al-Asad Gaining Momentum Written by Arieh O Sullivan Published Tuesday, August 09, 2011 E-Mail This

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States maneuvering for post-Assad era Diplomatic momentum is building on the Bashar Al-Asad regime as it ratchets up i ts four-month military crackdown, but the Syrian president shows no signs of bei ng in the mood to listen, analysts say. Whether he is in a mood to listen or not doesn t matter. Everyone else is in a mood for a post-Asad Syria and are all positioning themselves for this eventuality, P rof. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist at UAE University, told The Medi a Line. Three Gulf states countries have withdrawn their ambassadors from Damascus, incl uding Bahrain, Kuwait and most significantly Saudi Arabia. In a major test for T urkey, Anakra has dispatched its foreign minister to Damascus on a mission to st op the violence. Notwithstanding the vicious crackdown on Syrians demanding reform that has kille d over 2,000 people, neighboring states are playing out their regional rivalries on Syrian soil for greater influence on the day after. The Alawites and Baath party have dominated Syrian politics for four decades. Al -Asad is really battling for his life and the current Syrian way of life. If he goes, the Alawite minority control goes with him and quite possibly the army wou ld collapse. Economically, Syria is going down the tubes. So far its oil fields haven t been ta rgeted by the rebels and are continuing to pump out nearly 400,000 barrels a day . While it is low-grade and its supply is not expected to last much longer, it s till accounts for almost 30% of Syrian state revenue and its importance is growi ng considering how the major tourism industry has collapsed. Syria is dependent on European refineries to process its heavy crude oil. Anti-A sad activists are pushing for Europe to impose sanctions on Syrian oil. For now, Russia is against sanctions, not just out of a sense of obligation to its once close ally, but because it wouldn t want to see Syria fall into American or Wester n influence. A decade ago, Syria and Turkey were close to war. Today, Syria is one of Turkey s greatest trading partners. Gallia Lindenstrauss, a researcher at the Institute f or National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, believes that the Turks probably hold the most sway with Al-Asad s regime at the moment. If he is in a mood, he will listen to the Turks, Lindenstrauss told The Media Line . He saw what happened in Egypt and to the other dictators. He knows if he goes t hrough with reforms he will be endangering his life. On the other hand, some of Al-Asad s options include lowering the violence to a le

vel that would make it more difficult for the international community to impose sanctions or intervene militarily, said Lindenstrauss. The Turks are also concerned with refugees flooding its borders. They don t want a repeat of 1991 when Iraqi refugees massed on the border and an international no -fly zone was created to protect them from Saddam Hussein s forces. Ultimately, th is created a de-facto Kurdish state. The geopolitical earth tremor taking place in Syria could also be seen as part o f the greater conflict between the Arab world and Iran, manifested in a Sunni-Sh ia clash. There is no doubt about it that Iran is going to be one of the biggest losers, Abd ulla of UAE University said. If you look at who lost and gained from this Arab Sp ring, Iran has come out with a net loss so far. If Asad goes that will be their biggest loss. The Iranians are doing everything possible to bolster him. In many ways, Iran holds the key for Al-Asad with its strong support. Iran has b een reportedly aiding the Asad regime with know-how and advice. Tehran is also r eportedly considering a $5 billion aid package to Syria as a bail out if sanctio ns are imposed. Dramatic moves out of of defense on Monday ve been found dead at e of Assad s greatest Damascus have already occurred. Al-Asad fired his minister and by Tuesday the man, Gen. Ali Habib, was reported to ha his home. Habib, according to Asharq al-Awsat, had been on opponents to the bloody military crackdown in Hama.

Speculation has also risen that because Habib was from Asad s Alawite sect, the sp lit between them may have been part of an unsuccessful internal power struggle g et rid of Asad. It is not the outside world that is going bring Asad down but the people on the g round there, Abdulla said. You have watch for two things: when Damascus will begin to rise -- They are turning against him, but are waiting it out -- and the trou ble within the military. We have seen signs of this already when he sacked his d efense minister. Things are starting to happen. Lindenstrauss said she was doubtful whether the situation in Syria would drag Tu rkey and Iran into direct confrontation, but that the lack of stability there wa s bound to create friction. With diplomatic pressure from the Arab world and the West mounting, eyes are on Iran to see how it reacts. Meanwhile, Syrian forces persist with its offensive a gainst demonstrators in several towns on the border with Turkey. Dictators don t give up easy. They are fighting back and using brutal force at the ir disposal to prevent revolts. Tunisia was the exception. All the others are ac ting in a way one should expect toward revolutions. They are bloody and prolonge d and not easy to overthrow, especially ones like Asad and (Libyan leader Mu amar) Al-Qaddafi who understand the use of force, Abdulla said.

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