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Thermax
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 19.4 9.3 (100)bp 13.6 1QFY12 1,044 113.7 10.9 79.9 % chg (qoq) 24.8 23.6 (11)bp 27.3
`425 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Capital Goods 5,062 0.6 927/ 407 122,447 2 16,786 5,050 THMX.BO TMX@IN
Thermax announced its 2QFY2012 results, which were ahead of our and street expectations. The company positively surprised on the top-line front, growing by 19.4% yoy `1,303cr, which was higher than our estimate of `1,168cr. Led by strong top line, EBITDA and PAT also reported decent growth of 9.3% and 13.6%, respectively. Future of the company is directly linked to the recovery of industrial capex which is showing no visible signs of improvement leading to stiff headwinds on the business front. Hence, we maintain Neutral on the stock. Strong execution drives revenue and profit: For 2QFY2012, Thermax reported revenue growth of 19.4% yoy to `1,303cr (`1,092cr), driven by strong execution. EBITDA margin witnessed a contraction of 100bp yoy to 10.8%, which was in-line with our estimate of 11.1%. The margin decline can mainly be attributed to higher raw-material prices, which rose by ~190bp yoy to 70% as a proportion to sales, and higher execution of low-margin EPC projects. However, strong revenue growth resulted in decent PAT growth of 13.6% yoy to `101.7cr (`89.5cr), against our estimates and street estimates of flat growth.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 62.0 14.2 10.7 13.1
Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock trades at very attractive valuations of 12.6x and 11.7x FY2012E and FY2013E earnings, respectively (well below its historic average of 19.0x one-year forward earnings). The stock has corrected sharply by ~28% in the last three months, factoring in the negatives surmounting the sector. A weakened business environment would lead to lower order inflows, poor earnings growth and a stretched working capital cycle going ahead reversal of the companys key strengths. Hence, we reduce our target P/E multiple from 16.0x to 12.0x to factor in the same, thus arriving at a fair price of `437. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
3m
1yr
FY2010 3,368 (2.7) 259 (9.9) 11.7 21.8 19.5 4.7 25.0 33.0 1.2 10.2
FY2011 5,336 58.5 382 47.3 10.8 32.0 13.3 3.8 31.9 39.2 0.8 7.4
FY2012E 5,816 9.0 403 5.6 10.8 33.8 12.6 3.1 27.5 32.6 0.8 7.1
FY2013E 6,172 6.1 434 7.5 11.0 36.4 11.7 2.6 24.2 30.4 0.7 6.2
Shailesh Kanani
+91 22 3937 7600 Ext: 6829 shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Hemang Thaker
+91 22 3937 7600 Ext: 6817 hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 1,287 16.8 1,303 (0.6) 913.7 70.0 98.5 0.8 151.4 1.2 1,163 140.5 10.8 1.1 11.7 20.8 148.5 11.4 47 31.5 101.7 7.8 8.5
2QFY11 1,048 43.8 1,092 (3.2) 746.4 68.1 99.0 0.9 120.8 1.1 963.0 128.6 11.1 0.5 10.5 13.3 130.9 12.0 41 31.6 89.5 8.2 7.5
% chg (yoy) 22.8 19.4 22.4 (0.4) 25.3 20.8 9.3 142.8 11.6 56.0 13.4 12.9 13.6 13.6
1QFY12 1,033 11.5 1,044 (6.5) 734.7 69.7 90.5 0.9 112.1 1.1 930.7 113.7 10.9 0.4 11.1 14.7 117.0 11.2 37.1 31.7 79.9 7.6 6.7
% chg (qoq) 24.6 24.8 24.4 8.9 35.0 25.0 23.6 192.7 5.7 41.1 26.9 26.1 27.3 27.3
1HFY12 2,320 28.3 2,348 (7.1) 1,648 69.9 189.0 11.0 263.5 16.0 2,094 254.2 10.8 1.5 22.8 35.5 265.4 11.3 83.9 31.6 181.6 7.7 15.2
1HFY11 1,827 54.8 1,881 (5.8) 1,274 67.4 197.9 14.1 214.4 16.8 1,657 224.5 11.9 1.0 21.1 27.3 229.8 12.2 74.1 32.2 155.7 8.3 13.1
(4.5) 22.9 26.4 13.2 46.1 8.2 30.1 15.5 13.2 16.6 -
2QFY12 1,035 296.8 1,332 110.2 32.0 142 77.7 22.3 10.7 10.8 10.7
2QFY11 891.0 248.2 1,139 91.3 30.8 122 78.2 21.8 10.2 12.4 10.7
1QFY12 802 265 1,067 81.0 31.3 112.3 75.2 24.8 10.1 11.8 10.5
1HFY12 1,837 561.6 2,399 191.2 63.3 254 76.6 23.4 10.4 11.3 10.6
1HFY11 1,498 470.3 1,968 159.3 57.7 217 76.1 23.9 10.6 12.3 11.0
% chg (yoy) 22.7 19.4 21.9 20.0 9.6 17.2 77.7 22.3 10.7 10.8 10.7
Balanced segmental performance: Revenue growth during the quarter was driven by strong execution of orders in the energy and environment segments, which posted 16.1% yoy growth to `1,035cr (`891.0cr) and 19.1% yoy growth to `296.8cr (`248.2cr), respectively. Overall profitability remained fairly stable on a yoy basis; however, the energy segment showed a slight improvement of 50bp yoy to 10.7%. In contrast, the environment segment showed a contraction of 160bp yoy to 10.8%, which can mainly be attributed to increased commodity prices.
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY12
Healthy order intake, but downward bias on future inflows: For 2QFY2012, despite a tough business environment, Thermax was able to secure orders of `1,284cr (energy segment `934cr and environment segment `351cr) albeit posting a yoy de-growth of 8.8%. Order intake was mainly constituted by oil and gas (30%), metals, (12%), cement (6%), power (8%), textile (7%) and food processing (4%). Consolidated order backlog at the end of the quarter stood at `6,531cr (energy segment `5,370cr and environment segment `1,061cr). Management commentary indicated a weakening outlook and a much tougher business environment, which imply slackening order intake for the rest of the year.
6,446
6,804 6,531
(`)
3,200 1,600 -
1,234
1,284
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
Order Backlog
Order inflows
Change in estimates: We lower our FY2012E revenue growth estimates by 2.6% in light of tough business environment (continued deferrals in order finalizations and stiff competition). Also, the fact that 2HFY2011 witnessed robust growth last year, thereby creating a large base, we expect Thermax to post subdued numbers. We also lower our FY2013E growth estimates on the back of lower estimated order inflows for FY2012E and no signs of revival in industrial capex. We retain our margin assumptions for FY2012E and FY2013E.
2QFY12
Investment concerns
Weak outlook on industrial capex casts concerns: It is pertinent to note that ever since the business environment turned hostile from 2HFY2011, the cumulative order intake for FY2011 by Thermax posted a decline of 10.2% yoy. Consequently, OB/Sales dropped from 2.0x in FY2010 to 1.3x in FY2011, thereby rendering lowered revenue visibility for the coming years. Also, with no respite on the interest rates front in the near term, overall capex across sectors (such as metals, cement, and oil and gas) will decelerate further as increased borrowing costs will make incremental capex unviable. In addition, the general slowdown in the economy does not help the situation either. Against this backdrop, order finalizations from these sectors will be on a strict check. This negatively affects companies with exposure to industrial capex (read Thermax) for their growth. Lack of clarity on JVs earnings potential: The JV with B&W (set up at an estimated cost of `800cr) for manufacturing supercritical boilers has not bagged any order till date. Thermax was also unsuccessful in securing orders from the much-awaited NTPC bulk order of supercritical boilers (9x800MW). Further, the BTG market is lined up for intense competition and predatory pricing, as equipment is likely to be sedate in the near-to-medium term. Given this, equity investment of ~`400cr (~20% of the balance sheet) can be at risk. Concerns in the power sector loom large: With the coal sector struggling to meet the demands of the power sector, the perceived shortage in coal supply casts a grim outlook on the power sector. While the UMPPs and higher rating power plants are likely to receive priority in supplies over the smaller ones, IPPs and CPPs below the 300MW category will face pain. Thermax has a strong presence in utility boilers (up to 300MW category) and may face a slowdown in order inflows in such a scenario. The governments prompt action to resolve this crisis will prove as an important trigger; however, delays in the process including various approvals and other procedural formalities will remain a major challenge.
Outlook and valuation: Thermax trails its fortune towards industrial capex,
especially in sectors such as metals, cement and oil and gas, which form its mainstream arena for offering products and solutions. However, the continual tough macro climate calls for more pain to the company. At the CMP, the stock trades at attractive valuations of 12.6x and 11.7x FY2012E and FY2013E earnings, respectively (well below its historic average of 19.0x one-year forward earnings). The stock has corrected sharply by ~28% in the last three months, factoring in the negatives surmounting the sector. A weakened business climate depicts lower order inflows, poor earnings growth and a stretched working capital cycle reversal of the companys key strengths. Hence, we reduce our P/E multiple of from 16.0x to 12.0x to factor in the same, thus arriving at a fair price of `437. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
33.8 36.4
(`)
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
20x
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Feb-06
Feb-07
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Feb-09
Feb-10
5x
10x
15x
Feb-11
Oct-11
(%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E (16.8) 11.3 44.7 53.1 5.5 4.5 3.1 1.9 2.4 0.7 1.3 3.1 4.8 3.7 2.5 1.7 2.1 0.6 1.0 2.6 47.3 26.5 11.4 7.0 16.4 4.6 5.9 12.6 32.5 18.8 10.0 7.6 10.8 4.1 4.5 11.7
EPS CAGR FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E 166.8 20.6 13.7 (3.6) (5.9) 24.8 23.1 6.6 15.0 24.0 41.2 19.7 16.6 23.7 22.0 32.6 20.6 26.9 37.6 16.1 21.6 22.9 24.1 30.4 12.2 17.9 30.3 30.6 15.6 16.6 24.8 27.5 15.7 21.6 27.7 23.4 20.7 15.0 25.6 24.2
10
11
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total Assets OB/Sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin (%) Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) (%) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) (%) Leverage (x) Operating RoE (%) Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. coverage (EBIT / Int.) (0.7) (1.3) 244.5 (0.5) (1.2) 101.5 (0.9) (2.6) 172.7 (0.6) (1.4) 126.8 (0.4) (1.0) 150.1 (0.5) (1.4) 220.2 9.6 22 49 40 (21) 6.3 26 58 46 (1) 4.8 29 74 64 (52) 5.9 21 64 56 (18) 4.9 24 67 56 3 4.4 21 64 56 1 58.8 60.6 42.9 43.3 127.6 32.9 33.0 118.1 25.0 39.2 123.0 31.9 32.6 172.9 27.5 30.4 69.5 24.2 11.6 0.6 5.1 38.2 98.7 38.2 11.2 0.7 3.9 29.5 127.1 29.5 10.4 0.5 3.2 16.7 17.0 16.7 9.7 0.7 4.0 25.7 3.5 25.7 9.5 0.7 3.4 22.0 1.7 22.0 9.6 0.7 3.2 20.6 2.5 20.6 24.2 24.2 26.2 8.0 63.4 24.1 24.1 27.1 5.0 83.2 21.8 21.8 25.5 5.0 90.5 32.0 32.0 36.6 9.0 110.4 33.8 33.8 40.1 7.0 136.0 36.4 36.4 43.7 7.0 164.2 17.5 16.2 6.7 1.9 1.3 10.6 5.8 0.8 17.6 15.7 5.1 1.2 1.3 10.8 4.5 0.9 19.5 16.7 4.7 1.2 1.2 10.2 3.6 1.8 13.3 11.6 3.8 2.1 0.8 7.4 2.7 1.2 12.6 10.6 3.1 1.6 0.8 7.1 2.4 1.0 11.7 9.7 2.6 1.6 0.7 6.1 2.0 1.1 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Thermax No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
13