Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 11

Fearless Prediction of the Week

Sector Valuations & ETF Trading US Treasury Yields Comex Gold and Nymex Crude Oil The US Dollar vs Euro & the Japanese Yen The Major Equity Averages The ValuEngine Stock of the Day
Support@ValuEngine.com

October 25, 2011

Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
76.18% 23.82% 42.81% 6.99%

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20%

The ValuEngine Universe consists of over 5000 US, foreign, and ADR tickers traded on US markets. Normal ranges for universe over and undervaluation typically run between 35-65%. Of course, readings in excess of this range are no guarantee that a correction is imminent and extreme conditions may persist for a very long time.

Sector Overview
Sector Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities Change 1.61% 3.11% 3.69% 2.25% 2.53% 3.21% 2.32% 1.53% 2.10% 2.83% 2.27% 2.43% 2.75% 2.15% 2.09% 1.15% MTD 12.60% 24.70% 18.28% 15.35% 17.54% 22.88% 18.04% 12.48% 15.09% 19.39% 13.02% 17.50% 24.40% 16.44% 21.01% 19.64% YTD 4.73% -26.96% -20.50% -5.72% -7.62% -21.53% -10.69% -13.90% -8.45% -13.87% -2.75% -10.20% -15.47% 0.05% -8.03% 10.63% Valuation 14.81% undervalued 13.03% undervalued 17.94% undervalued 15.97% undervalued 18.22% undervalued 20.22% undervalued 16.43% undervalued 8.58% undervalued 16.56% undervalued 19.77% undervalued 20.49% undervalued 10.78% undervalued 15.31% undervalued 12.18% undervalued 12.39% undervalued 1.97% undervalued Last 12MReturn 2.59% 7.42% 0.27% 0.31% -0.20% -12.28% -0.33% -0.24% -3.55% 1.94% 1.91% 1.25% 29.28% 12.87% -4.69% 5.06% P/E Ratio 22.31 31.81 32.67 29.81 35.98 37.89 30.61 17.97 19.06 18.50 29.88 21.79 36.80 29.23 25.09 21.29

Market Overview
Daily 10/24/2011 10/21/2011 Daily Chg 12/31/2010 YTD Change Supports 10-Year 2.234 2.214 0.02 3.288 -1.054 2.414 S 2.669 Q 2.669 Q 3.791 A 2.222 M 2.178 D 1.915 W 1.672 S Gold 1654.0 1640.4 13.6 1421.4 232.6 1633.3 D 1606.4 W 1470.0 S 1356.5 A 1644.8 S 1738.4 Q 1811.4 M Crude Oil 91.52 87.64 3.88 91.38 0.14 84.81 W Euro / $$ 1.3926 1.3891 0.0035 1.3384 0.0542 1.2966 W 1.2598 Q Dollar vs Yen 76.04 76.08 -0.04 81.11 -5.07 74.41 S 60.95 S The Dow 11,914 11,809 105 11,578 336 11,491 S 11,336 W 9,635 S 8,468 S 11,765 D 12,091 M 12,507 Q 13,890 A 11,402 11,749 2.8 / 3.4 8.4 / 7.5 Nasdaq 2699 2637 62 2653 46 2607 W 2335 A 2199 S 2049 S 2684 D 2680 M 2807 Q 3243 A

Pivots Resistances

90.55 D 99.91 A 100.34 Q 101.92 A 85.75 91.58 3.2 / 3.5 7.2 / 6.3

1.3863 D 1.4579 M 1.4752 S 1.4872 S 1.3813 1.4007 2.8 / 3.1 7.8 / 7.2

76.96 M 76.92 W 77.59 A 78.50 Q 82.07 A 76.95 79.68 1.6 / 1.5 1.7 / 1.5

Five-Week Five- Month Int Sent LT Sent

2.155 2.726 8.2 / 7.8 5.4 / 5.9

1688.3 1560.6 5.4 / 4.8 9.1 / 8.7

2561 2631 3.4 / 3.9 8.5 / 7.7

Supports Levels that are likely to hold on weakness. Pivots Levels that could be tested as magnets. Resistances Levels that are likely to restrain strength (D-Daily, W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A-Annual) Five-Week The five-week modified moving average. Five-Month The five-month modified moving average. Int Sent 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading on a scale of 0.0 and 10.0. LT Sent 12x3x3 monthly slow stochastic reading. (Below 2.0 is oversold, above 8.0 is overbought. Rising is positive. Declining is negative) Weekly Chart Profiles Above the Five-Week with rising Int Sent is positive. Below the Five-Week with declining Int Sent is negative. Monthly Chart Profiles Above the Five-Month with rising LT Sent is positive. Below the Five-Month with declining LT Sent is negative.

10-Year Note (2.234) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with daily and monthly pivots at 2.178 and 2.222, the 50-day simple moving average at 2.058, and weekly, and semiannual risky levels at 1.915 and 1.672, which was tested on September 23rd.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold ($1654.00) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1633.3, $1606.4, $1469.9 and $1,356.5 with my semiannual pivot at $1644.8, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1738.4 and $1811.4, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7. The 200-day simple moving average is $1548.8 with the 50-day at $1741.0.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil ($91.52) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with my weekly value level at $84.81, a daily pivot at $90.55, the 50-day at $85.32 with the 200-day at $94.75, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $98.51, $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro (1.3926) Weekly, and quarterly value levels are 1.2966 and 1.2598 with a daily pivot at 1.3863, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4579, 1.4752 and 1.4872. The 50-day simple moving average is 1.3874 with the 200-day at 1.4090.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Dollar versus Japanese Yen (76.04) My semiannual value levels are 74.41 and 60.95 with daily, weekly and monthly pivots at $75.94, $76.92 and $76.96, and annual and quarterly risky levels at 77.59, 78.50 and 82.07.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The British Pound (1.5987) Quarterly and weekly value levels are 1.5301 and 1.5262 with a daily pivot at 1.5927 and monthly risky level at 1.6278.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Major Equity Averages


24-Oct YTD Gains 2.9% -0.3% 1.7% 7.5% 11.3% -4.0% -6.1% -6.6% 31-Dec Price 11,578.00 1,257.60 2,653.00 2,217.86 404.99 5,107.00 783.65 411.82 2011 Highs 12,876.00 1,370.58 2,887.75 2,437.42 443.51 5,627.85 868.57 450.79
Date of Highs 2-May-11 2-May-11 2-May-11 25-Jul-11 20-Sep-11 7-Jul-11 2-May-11 2-May-11 Oct-11 Lows % Off Highs % Off Lows % From Hi to Lo

Market The Dow S&P 500 Nasdaq Naz 100 (NDX) Utilities Transports Russell 2000 Semis (SOX)

Price 11,914.00 1,254.20 2,699.00 2,384.00 450.67 4,902.00 735.97 384.58

10,404.49 1,074.77 2,298.89 2,034.92 381.99 3,950.66 601.71 322.24

-7.5% -8.5% -6.5% -2.2% 1.6% -12.9% -15.3% -14.7%

14.5% 16.7% 17.4% 17.2% 18.0% 24.1% 22.3% 19.3%

-19.2% -21.6% -20.4% -16.5% -13.9% -29.8% -30.7% -28.5%

Daily Dow - (11,914) The October 4th YTD low is 10,404.49 with annual and weekly value levels at 11,491 and 11,336, a daily pivot at 11,765, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 12,091 and 12,507 with the YTD high at 12,876.00. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468. The 50-day is 11,263 with the 200-day at 11,967. S&P 500 (1254.2) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with semiannual value levels at 981.3 and 855.7, annual and weekly value levels at 1210.7 and 1194.0, a daily pivot at 1243.1, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1259.8, 1303.7 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58. NASDAQ (2699) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with my annual value level at 2335, semiannual value levels at 2199 and 2049, a weekly, daily and monthly pivots at 2607, 2684 and 2680, and quarterly risky level at 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2384) The YTD low is 2034.92 with semiannual and annual value levels at 1951, 1861 and 1723, my monthly value level at 2312, weekly and daily pivots at 2334 and 2387, and quarterly risky level at 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42 and annual risky level at 2590. Dow Utilities (450.67) Quarterly, and semiannual value levels are 434.12, 404.17 and 348.40 with daily, weekly and monthly pivots at 452.79, 448.82 and 448.55, and annual risky level at 458.28. Dow Transports (4902) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with daily, weekly, semiannual value levels at 4827, 4554, 4335 and 3868, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 4980, 5179 and 5359, and the YTD high at 5627.85. Russell 2000 (735.97) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with semiannual value levels at 577.47 and 530.04, daily and weekly value levels at 718.37 and 677.48, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 778.77, 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high at 868.57. The SOX (384.58) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with annual and semiannual value levels at 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67, daily, weekly and monthly pivots at 382.32, 379.60 and 363.01, and quarterly risky level at 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79.

Dow Tracks Daily Chart


Daily Dow - (11,914) The October 4th YTD low is 10,404.49 with annual and weekly value levels at 11,491 and 11,336, a daily pivot at 11,765, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 12,091 and 12,507 with the YTD high at 12,876.00. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468. The 50-day is 11,263 with the 200-day at 11,967.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Weekly Dow: (11,809) The 200-week simple moving average is 10,634 with the five-week modified moving average at 11,402, annual and weekly value levels at 11,491 and 11,336 and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,091, 12,507 and 13,890. The weekly chart stays positive with a weekly close above the 5-week MMA and with rising MOJO. Monthly Dow: (10,913) The monthly chart is now negative with the 120-month simple moving average at 10,592 as support. My annual pivot is 11,491, with the five-month modified moving average at 11,749. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,091, 12,507 and 13,890.

ValuEngine Stock of the Day


Amazon.com (AMZN)
Amazon.com (AMZN) ($237.61) is rated a BUY according to ValuEngine with fair value at $168.93, which makes the stock 39.0% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $253.11.
Amazon.com, Inc. seeks to be the world's most customer-centric company, where customers can find and discover anything they may want to buy online. The company lists unique items in categories such as books, music, DVDs, videos, consumer electronics, toys, camera and photo items, software, computer and video games, tools and hardware, lawn and patio items, kitchen products, and wireless products.

Analysis The daily chart for Amazon shows declining MOJO with the stock above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $229.66, $218.71 and $196.96. My semiannual value level is $183.52 with a monthly pivot at 234.94 and quarterly risky level at $247.46.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


Ticker AMZN Company Name AMAZON.COM Mkt Price 237.61 Fair Value 168.93 One-Year Price Target 253.11 Last 12-Mon Retn (%) 42.32 5-Yr Avg Retn (%) 36.37 P/E Ratio 83.44