Академический Документы
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Dennis Rogers President, Safe Haven Farms Member NARPAA August 5, 2011 dennis.rogers@safehavenfarms.org
1
School Year
California
Autism Spectrum Disorders, Changes in the California Caseload, An Update: 1999-2002 (published in April 2003 by the California Dept. of Developmental Services)
# People
3,805,648
Birth Year
2000
Future Forecast
Model Constructed by US Census Bureau Based On: fertility rates (+) mortality rates (-) immigration rates (+) emigration rates (-)
Age
# People
Birth Year
1
2 3 4
3,820,582
3,790,446 3,832,799 3,926,323
1999
1998 1997 1996
5
... 21 22
3,965,103
3,841,082 3,758,648
1995
1979 1978
23
... 84 85+ Total
3,673,582
801,329 4,239,587
281,421,906
1977
1916 < 1916
US Census Bureau publishes forecasts for next 30 years, by age, by sex, by state, etc.
95
90 85 80 75
1 in 125
70
65 60 55 50
1 in 150
45
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1985 IDEA 1990 ADDM
Birth Year
NHIS
1995 CA
2000 Composite
2005
240
230 220 210 200 190 180
Scenarios of interest
1. 2. Assume prevalence stays flat at 88 per 10,000 beyond 2000 Assume prevalence rises 3% per year beyond 2000 2
170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Composite 2005 Flat 2010 3 PCT 2015 2020 2025 2030 0% Annual Increase 3% Annual Increase
Looking forward
Birth Year
Calculation Methodology
Column 2: For a given year, determine the population by age from census data projections Column 3: Determine the birth year for each age for that year someone who is 2 years old in 2000 was born in 1998, etc. Column 4: Determine the autism rate from prevalence curve for that birth year:
Autism Rate per 10,000 Births Birth Year
2000
1
2 3 4 5
3,820,582
3,790,446 3,832,799 3,926,323 3,965,103
Etc. for each age
1999
1998 1997 1996 1995
85
81 77 73 69
32,475
30,703 29,436 28,662 27,359
83 84 85+ Total
4 4 4
Do a similar calculation for every age in every year to predict number of people with autism in USA now and in the future Repeat using census data and population forecast from every state
Total
Age 5-21
Age 22+ Total
School-Age
700,000
600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000
Pre-School (but likely not yet diagnosed)
Adults
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total
School-Age
Adults
2020
2025
2030
Year 2000
154,842 171,988 79,067 405,897
2010
188,550 489,955 103,002 781,507
2020
201,802 651,973 345,927 1,199,702
2030
213,593 705,464 747,124 1,666,181
School Age
(5-21)
Adults
(22+)
Total
Year
2000 154,842 171,988 79,067 405,897 2010 239,173 507,074 103,002 849,249 2020 343,907 814,800 345,927 1,504,634 2030 489,242 1,179,382 793,906 2,462,530
School Age
(5-21)
Adults
(22+)
Total
170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Constant Prevalence 3% Annual Increase
4 1
0% Annual Increase
80
70 60 50 40 30 20 10
3
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 3 PCT 2015 Cured! 2020 2025 2030
0
1980
Birth Year
Composite Flat
900,000
800,000
Note that even if autism were cured in 2010, the number of adults to be served in 2030 is still 7 times the number today they are already born!
700,000
600,000
Age 5-21 Age 22+ Total Age 0-4
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
So where are they? Now that we know how to diagnose autism, lets go find the adults we missed
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Cost of Care
Annual cost to educate students with disabilities = $12,474 per school year Annual cost to support an adult with autism in supported living setting = $50,000-$100,000 In school for 16 years (ages 5-21) In adult services for 60+ years! Significant rise in number of adults with autism will severely strain funding sources
Conclusions
Simple model created to help us see the future of autism, based on: USA census population forecasts Historical autism prevalence trends (looking backward) Assumed future autism prevalence trends (looking forward)
The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedients and delays is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.
Sir Winston Churchill
Reference Information
7.
Age
4-5 6-8 9-11 12-14 15-17
Prevalence per
10,000
Age
Not used* 4-5 6-8 9-11 12-14 15-17
Prevalence per
10,000
48 75 72 46 42
44 76 68 43 41
# States
6 14 8 11
# Surveyed
187,761 407,578 172,335 308,038
Prevalence per
10,000
Year Published
2007 2007 2009 2009
67 66 80 90