NVTC Newsletter070713

NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter
Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Add B-9-12, Block B, Level 9, Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Newsletter for the week ending 13 July 2007
THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

Page
1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

Two Species of Trader – Which Are You? …… 2
by Mark Parnos of Online Trading Academy
Weekend Food For Thoughts …… 4

by Shotoh, BH Global Advisers Sdn. Bhd.
2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) …….. 5
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 6
ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) …….. 7
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 8
iii) Thailand SET Index (SETI) …….. 9
Additional SETI analysis by Don Schellenberg …….. 10
iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) …….. 13

Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 14
v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) …….. 15
3. Regional Market Forecast Group …….. 17
4. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 18
Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 21
© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

1. Trading/Investment Related Articles:
Two Species of Trader – Which Are You?
By Mike Parnos of Online Trading Academy
In the wide world of directional trading, two species exist, basically -- trend followers and
contrarians. Trend followers take a "hitch your wagon to a star" approach. When they see a stock
moving in a particular direction, they figure that someone smarter than they are must know
something. So, they jump into the fray and hope for the best.
Whether they profit or not depends largely on when they have this epiphany. If they get in early in
the trend, they may make a few bucks. If they come late to the dance, they usually discover that
the party’s over, and they’re out some money.
Contrarians are a different breed. They believe that when too many people agree on a direction,
they're simply confused, don't understand the situation and are in for a rude financial awakening.
Contrarians believe that an overwhelming majority of retail traders tend to buy high and sell low.
Instead of jumping on a bandwagon (trend), contrarians try to determine when the euphoria will end
and then short the herd of traders who will be scrambling to get out. A number of mutual funds use
contrarian strategies to take advantage of the follies of retail traders.
A Contrarian Story
My son is a day trader -- a very successful one. Currently, five other traders are still at the office
where he plies his craft. They are the few survivors. Years ago, when the market was hot, four or
five day trading offices were thriving in metropolitan Detroit. Each office had 15 to 20 traders,
plastered to computers, making money hand over fist. But, remember: That was in the day when
monkeys throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal stock pages outperformed analysts and an
embarrassing number of professional traders.
When the irrational market hit the wall and fell like a ton of manure, so did the mass of irrational
day traders. They only knew one style of trading, couldn't make the adjustment and watched in
amazement as they gave back most, or all, of what they had made.
These days, an occasional visitor to the office where my son works is a former day trader named
Little Richard. A great guy (approximately 5'6" in height, hence his nickname), he was affectionately
known as their "contrarian indicator."
Some people in this world have the Midas touch. Whatever they touch turns to gold. Then, there are
those who, whatever they touch, it turns to something you wouldn't want to step in. Well, Little
Richard was the latter.
Whenever Little Richard would enthusiastically announce that he just bought 500 shares of XYZ
stock, the other traders in the office would immediately short XYZ stock. It worked approximately 80
percent of the time. Notice that I said Little Richard is a "former" day trader.

Identifying a Trend
Lotsa luck!! It ain't easy. Technical analysis may give you some guidance. But, the question is,
once you've identified the trend, how much trend is left? That's the $64,000 question.
Look at the trend line. The steeper the trend line, the more powerful the trend may be. Some
traders look for crossing moving average lines or other momentum indicators. Throw a few support
and / or resistance lines on the chart. Then, add some moving averages. Toss in an oscillator and,
before you know it, the chart looks like last night's spaghetti. A good knowledge of technical analysis
can make some sense of it. Some say it gives traders an edge.
Both the momentum and / or contrarian approaches can work. It all depends on the trading and
chart reading skills, as well as the self-discipline, of the individual trader. Developing these skills is
not like making Minute Rice. It takes time, effort, practice and a commitment.
The market is an unforgiving animal that eats traders for lunch and spits out what little is left. You
don't want to take a knife to a gunfight. Be prepared.

Weekend Food For Thought
By Shotoh, BH Global Advisers Sdn Bhd
Another quick update on international markets. A few key points taken from discussion with my
colleague, YH Wong.
Point #1. US mortgage sickness. DLR-Yen tumbled as low as below 121 triggered by the belated
admission by Standard and Poor’s that it blundered in sizing up the sub-prime US mortgage debacle,
where defaults and delinquencies are on the rise. The news frightened some carry traders and it
sparked heavy selling of investment banking shares on Wall Street. However, quick intervention
from the US Treasurer who has been watching markets closely bailed out the shaky forex pair and
thus prevented a sharp sell-off in US equities. YH Wong pointed out that the US Treasury will
continue to work hard to manipulate the markets to ensure that the infamous carry trade will not be
a victim of the US mortgage meltdown.
Point #2. Did you see the big gorilla coming? Thanks to the on-going operations to cover up the
mortgage mess, US stocks rallied further forcing some traders to cover short positions and that
added points to the rally. Odds continue to favor further speculative gains before an important top is
established amid jubilation and cheer.
Point #3. There is a serious problem with the greenback but so what? Although US equities
are screaming higher (some momentum traders on our radar screen have been eyeing the 14,000
level and above on the DJIA for sometime), YH Wong is concerned that the US dollar is no longer
falling correctly and believes that US Treasury and the Fed will take some sort of action to
manipulate markets and prevent a crash in US markets. We expect a Euro rally to $1.40 with limited
pullbacks. As for currency trades, we are now watching the progress of our currency specialist
adviser.
Point #4. Don’t ask, keep buying, plenty of liquidity trumps all else! In the global hedge fund
industry, the markets are “telling” us that there’s an expectation of another big shoe to drop. All
half-baked politicians now understand that the carry trade has caused the build-up of a variety of
speculative bubbles in most asset classes across the world. Interestingly, YH Wong pointed out that
wealthy insiders are exiting big hedge funds and stocks in droves and that they are taking money
out of them.
Point #5. Forget about traditional valuation models. In a world priced for perfection and low
risk, we remain overweight in base metal, energy and precious metal sectors. Meanwhile, our
equity-related funds for larger accounts remain in positive double-digit territory. YH Wong, a perma
bull on crude oil, is obviously pumped up about the price of crude oil these days as the price is
getting nearer to his $80 per barrel, a target set for 2007. He stressed at how the central banks
around the world are trying to protect their economies by printing more money to cope with
potential oil shocks. However, the side effects could be serious.
YH Wong will be back next week before taking a long break in August.
Shotoh is Senior Analyst with BH Global Advisers Sdn. Bhd., a licensed investment
advisory firm. You may reach him or his team at (603) 2166 8896.

2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI)
Technical Analysis as of 13/7/2007
Basic Price information

Close: 1,384.72
Trend Analysis
MACD (3.9043)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is bearish. The momentum of the trend is however,
weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(1,371.7939), 30-day(1,368.2533), 60-day(1,355.7170), 100-day(1,307.2354).

SHORT-Term Trend: Very bullish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bullish
Support and Resistance Analysis

Immediate Support: 1,347.5000
Longer term Support: 1,319.7500
Immediate Resistance: 1,389.6899
Longer term Resistance: 1,391.5699
100 day SMA Support: 1,307.2354

Stochastic(54.6729) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: No bar chart bullish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The 3-period ATR (14.6766) has increased therefore price action is more volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 74,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 73,900 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
KLCI gears up to break new high
I have mentioned last week that if the KLCI does not break the highest high of 1391.5, it should be
doing it this week. Other major indices in Asia have hit new highs but being a defensive market, the
KLCI did not react much. With the DJI continued to climb on Friday, markets in Asia may continue to
climb higher as well, including Malaysia.
Current trend is still up and is currently supported by the 60-day moving average medium term
trend. Momentum indicators like RSI and Stochastic are still showing bearish divergences. Unless the
KLCI breaks new high, the momentum of the current up trend shall remain weak. As long as the
KLCI maintains above 1345, it can pull some surprises.

ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI)

Close: 3,654.61
Trend Analysis
MACD (21.1654)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bullish. The momentum of the trend is
strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(3,590.9409), 30-day(3,577.0127), 60-day(3,519.0012), 100-day(3,400.9536).




Stochastic(78.1096) is currently slightly overbought and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : Island Reversal DOWN detected today
Stochastic
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 246,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 311,067 shares.
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
Slight Correction Expected for STI
The STI broke the 3600 resistance last week. It created a new historical high at 3685.01 on Friday
after opening near the high following a strong performance on the Dow. However, the bullish
sentiment did not follow through as it fell to settle at 3654.61. On the chart, the priced gapped up
on Thursday and Friday but closed lower, showing strong signs of resistance.
The current trend is still very bullish. However, the STI is currently at the resistance zone of the up
trend price channel. Therefore, the STI is expected to slightly correct this week to the up trend
support level at 3520 to 3550. Stronger support level is at 3470 and if this strong support is broken,
we may see a bigger correction.

iii) Thailand SET Index

Close: 859.14
Trend Analysis
MACD (27.0623)
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(833.9920), 30-day(785.2203), 60-day(748.5848), 100-day(721.5831).


Immediate Support: 763.9600
Longer term Support: 703.1100
Immediate Resistance: 861.7700

Longer term Resistance: 861.7700
100 day SMA Support: 721.5831

200 day SMA Support: 709.6354
Stochastic(88.1813) is currently overbought and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bearish Candlestick pattern: Long Upper Shadow was detected 2 days ago
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : Key Reversal DOWN was detected 2 days ago
Stochastic
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : Stochastic crossed below its %D 2 days ago.
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 770,136,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 428,871,872 shares.
Volume strength is strong. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional Thailand Stocks analysis by Don Schellenberg, Senior Market Strategist,

NextView
Analysis of SCC
SCC.TH began a bullish move from June to November 2007 that was a strong declaration that the
years of mostly down and sideways price movement was finally over.
The 2005 all-time high of this stock was exceeded in the last couple of weeks by about 6%. And
although you can see in the chart where rising price has struck the upper channel line, and price has
fallen back slightly, this stock should continue to rise strongly.
Some resistance can be expected around 300 baht, but the uptrend should continue at least to
around 320. before a larger correction is likely to occur.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Volume – Volume has not been particularly high, but it has been highest on rising days, which is a
bullish sign.
Li’s Sandwich – Value in the chart has been pushing strongly against the upper line of this indicator
– which is bullish, but also implies an overbought condition, and usually precedes at least a minor
correction.
Trend Line – Up.
Upper Parallel to Trend Line – an area of minor resistance.
MACD – overbought
S1 – key support at 260.
Analysis of THAI
Thai.th has not had any strong growth in value since early 2004, more than three years ago. Since
then the direction revealed through price movement in the stock has been mostly down or sideways.
For the last 1 ½ years, price on the chart has formed a kind of triangle, which I have framed with an
up-sloping and a down-sloping trend line. Although many analysts believe that the direction of a

break out from a triangle is unpredictable, there is mounting evidence that the direction will be
upwards.
The upward movement at this time is not very impressive but momentum is beginning to increase.
It should be possible over the next few months f this stock to break out of the confining triangle and
rise to test the area around 55-56 baht, where it will likely encounter strong resistance.
So 55-56 is the future key area to watch if and when value rises to that level. Prior to that, the
down sloping upper part of the triangle needs to be penetrated.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Pattern – the ‘upward’ outlook for this stock is determined largely from price patterns appearing in
the chart.
R1 – immediate resistance at the upper line of the triangle.
R2 – around 56. Resistance at this level is probably due to the long term down trend line, which is
in the same zone as other mathematically calculated resistance.
Stochastic – is turning up slightly from an area that has previously provided support.
Volume – is higher that it has been for nearly two years.
NextView RSI – shows the value of the stock sitting precisely in an area of indecision, but rising
slightly.

iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Close: 23,099.29
Trend Analysis
MACD (485.8427)
strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(22,514.5742), 30-day(21,609.6504), 60-day(21,142.3730), 100-

day(20,602.1699).



Stochastic(86.6493) is currently overbought and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bearish Candlestick pattern: Long Upper Shadow was detected yesterday
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 1,952,540,032 shares, 30-day average volume: 2,092,481,152 shares.
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
HSI may go into minor correction
The Bollinger Bands on the HSI continues to expand and this time, the HSI created a historical high,
hit the top band of the Bollinger Bands on Friday. Like the STI, loses its strength later and pulled
back downwards. The HSI is expected to pull back to its up trend support level at around 22,500.
The closing for HSI on Friday is 23099.29 and the highest high it created on Friday is at 23239.92.

v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

Close: 13,907.25
Trend Analysis
MACD (80.3776)
strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(13,619.7393), 30-day(13,529.1074), 60-day(13,409.2852), 100-

day(13,008.4492).



Stochastic(92.5675) is currently overbought and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 223,816,992 shares, 30-day average volume: 237,114,976 shares.
market.

3. Regional Market Forecast Group
Note:
Forecast Direction
S = Sideway
U = Up
D = Down
Sideway market is considered if the index falls between 0.4% of the index close on Friday
Sideway Range Calculation Close Sideway Range
KLCI 1384.7 1379.2 to 1390.3
STI 3654.6 3640.0 to 3669.2
HSI 23099.3 23006.9 to 23191.7
SETI 859.1 855.7 to 862.6
Direction is based on next Fridays close. If next Friday's close is above the sideway range, direction is considered up and vice versa for price below
sideway range

4. Regional Traders Education Events this week
MALAYSIA

SINGAPORE

________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) and NextView Traders Club (NVTC) are NOT a licensed
investment advisors. This publication, which is generally available to members of NVTC, falls under Media Advice provisions. These
analysis notes are based on our experience of applying technical analysis to the market and are designed to be used as a tutorial showing
how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on recent trading data. This newsletter is a tool to assist you in your
personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant, your Stockbroker. It has been prepared without
regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because readers come from diverse
backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from
your broker or other investment advisors as appropriate before taking any action. The decision to trade and the method of trading is for
the reader alone to decide. The author, contributors and publisher expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, whether the
purchase of this publication or not, in respect of anything and of the consequences of any thing done or omitted to be done by any such
person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. Neither NextView Sdn Bhd
(including offices in other countries) nor its officers, employees and agents, will be liable for any loss or damage incurred by any person
directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this newsletter is
copyright and for the sole use of NVTC Members. It cannot be circulated to other readers without the permission of the publisher. This is
not a newsletter of stock tips. Case study trades are notional and analyzed in real time on a weekly basis. NextView Sdn Bhd does not
receive any commission or benefit from the trading activities undertaken by readers, or any benefit or fee from any of the stocks reviewed
in the newsletter. NextView Sdn Bhd is an independent financial education organization and research is supported by NVTC annual
membership fees.
OFFICES;
Head Office Malaysia: B-9-12, Block B, Level 9 Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Singapore: 5 Shenton Way,
#02-03/05 UIC Building, Singapore 068808. Thailand: The Millennia Tower, 18th Floor, Unit 1806, 62 Langsuan Road, Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok,
10330, Thailand. Hong Kong: Room B, 16/F, Crawford Tower, 99 Jervois Street, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. China: 98 Liuhe Road, 16A GangLu
HuangPu Center Building, Shanghai 200001

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NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter

Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Newsletter for the week ending 13 July 2007

THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

Weekend Food For Thoughts …… 4

iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) …….. 13

v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) …….. 15

3. Regional Market Forecast Group …….. 17

4. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 18

Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 21

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 2

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 3

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 4

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(1,371.7939), 30-day(1,368.2533), 60-day(1,355.7170), 100-day(1,307.2354).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 5

100 day SMA Support: 1,307.2354

Stochastic(54.6729) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

KLCI gears up to break new high

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 6

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(3,590.9409), 30-day(3,577.0127), 60-day(3,519.0012), 100-day(3,400.9536).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 7

100 day SMA Support: 3,400.9536

Stochastic(78.1096) is currently slightly overbought and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

Slight Correction Expected for STI

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 8

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(833.9920), 30-day(785.2203), 60-day(748.5848), 100-day(721.5831).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 9

100 day SMA Support: 721.5831

Stochastic(88.1813) is currently overbought and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional Thailand Stocks analysis by Don Schellenberg, Senior Market Strategist,

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 10

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 11

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 12

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(22,514.5742), 30-day(21,609.6504), 60-day(21,142.3730), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 13

100 day SMA Support: 20,602.1699

Stochastic(86.6493) is currently overbought and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

HSI may go into minor correction

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 14

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(13,619.7393), 30-day(13,529.1074), 60-day(13,409.2852), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 15

100 day SMA Support: 13,008.4492

Stochastic(92.5675) is currently overbought and is getting higher.