Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia: PRC report

GUO Shiyi Tsinghua University October 18,2011

Outline
National Profile Climate trends Impacts and adaptation action Mitigation action

National Profile - GDP

The structure of China economy from 1978-2010

The population and Urbanization of China

Energy Production and Consumption

Production

Consumption

GHGs emission

2005 GHGs inventory is not yet published.

Climate change in China- Temperature trends

Precipitation trends

Tropical storm and typhoon

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Temperature variation in A1B1 Scenario

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Impacts and Adaptation Action

Water resources Agriculture Costal and marine resources Health

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Water resources
The influence of climate change and human activities on the runoff of the Yellow river midstream (billion m3) Time Baseline 19701979 19801989 19902000 1970 2000(mean) Observed value 23.75 14.85 17.27 9.53 13.88 19.85 21.76 18.11 19.95 8.90 6.48 14.22 9.87 3.90 1.99 5.64 3.80 44 30 39 38 5.00 4.49 8.58 6.06 56 69 61 61 Calculated value Reduction Climate change (%) Human activities (%)

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Runoff variation in the different scenarios

DT: Temperature increase 2

DPPrecipitation decrease 10%

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Annual runoff variation from 1961-1990 to 2021-2050 in Scenario A1B

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Annual runoff variation from 1961-1990 in 2021-2050 in Scenario A2

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Annual runoff variation from 1961-1990 in 2021-2050 in Scenario B2

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Agriculture
Grain production rises in Northeast , but decrease in North China, Northwest and Southwest. The multiple crop index rises from 143% in 1985 to 164% in 2001. Average annual economic losses is above 200 billion RMB due to climatic disasters such as waterlog, drought, frost.

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Costal and marine resources

Sea level along Chinas coastline rise at a rate of 2.6 mm per year in recent 30 years. The 3708 kilometer-long coast is slowly eroding . The area of mangrove decrease from 55 thousand hectares to no more than 15 thousand hectares.

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Health

Variation of heat wave frequency from 1990s to 2020s in Scenario A2

Variation of heat wave frequency from 1990s to 2020s in Scenario B2

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Influence of climate on CVD

Variation of cardiovascular disease patients density from 1990s to 2020s in Scenario A2

Variation of cardiovascular disease patients density from 1990s to 2020s in Scenario B2

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Influence of climate change on transmission scale of schistosomiasis

the transmission scale of schistosomiasis in 2050s in Scenario A2

the transmission scale of schistosomiasis in 2050s in Scenario B2

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Influence of climate change on transmission intensity of schistomiasis

the transmission intensity of schistosomiasis in 2050s in Scenario A2

the transmission intensity of schistosomiasis in 2050s in Scenario B2

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Mitigation Action
Future targets Economic Structure adjustment Energy saving and efficiency improvement Development of new and renewable energy

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Future targets
Item GDP(Trillion Yuan) The share of service industry added value in GDP(%) The share of the expenditure on R&D in GDP (%) Annual Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Households (yuan) Annual Per Capita Net Income of Rural Households (yuan) New jobs created in urban areas (10,thousand) Urbanization (%) Population (10 thousand) The share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption mix (%) Energy consumption per unit GDP(%) CO2 emission per unit GDP (%) Stock volume of Forest (100 million cu.m) 137 143 47.5 51.5 2010 39.8 43 1.75 19109 5919 2015 55.8 47 2.2 >26810 >8310 Growth 7(annual growth rate% 4 0.45 >7annual grwoth rate,%) >7annual grwoth rate,%) 4500 4 <7.2(annual grwoth rate,) 3.1 16 17 6

134100 <139000 8.3 11.4

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Economic structure adjustment

Industry structure change form 2005 to 2010

High-tech industry change form 2005 to 2010

GDP energy intensity change form 2005 to 2010

Industrial added value energy intensity change form 2005 to 2010 26

Energy saving and efficiency improvement in Industry

Action Shut down small thermal power generating untis(<50MW) Eliminate the backward productivity of iron Eliminate the backward productivity of steel Cement productivity Effect 72 GW 121.72 Mt 69.69 Mt 330 Mt

Big pressure on the small policy from 2005-2010

Per Unit Product Steel Cement Ethylene Ammonia Electrolytic aluminum Energy Consumption 11.40% 16.77% 9.04% 7.96% 10.06%
Energy consumption per unit steel change from 2005-2009 Power supply coal consumption change from 2005-2009

reduction of energy consumption per unit product from2005-2009

Item The share of fossil Power Unit above 200MW in total fossil power unit(%) 1000MW Ultra Supercritical Unit Operating (unit) 1000MW Ultra Supercritical Unit building (unit) Value >70% 33 11
Power generation capacity increased in 2010

Fossil Power Unit by 2010

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Energy saving and efficiency improvement in Transport

Energy consumption change from 2005 to 2008

The share of transport energy consumption in total energy consumption change from 2005 to 2008

The share of transport oil consumption in total oil consumption change from 2007 to 2009

Possession of Civil vehicles change from 2005 to 2010

Possession of Private vehicles change from 2005 to 2010

Length of railways in operation change from 2005 to 2010

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Energy saving and efficiency improvement in Building

Item Building energy saving(100 Mtce) Energy saving building (100 million m2) New building (100 million m2) Building reconstruction (100 million m2)
Effect in building sector from 2005-2010

Effect 1 21.34 15.92 5.54

The northern towns heating change from1996 to 2008

The share of heating in the total building energy consumption compare to in the towns building energy consumption

Building energy consumption excluding heating change from 1996-2008 29

Development of new and renewable energy

Item Hydropower Applications Power generation (GW) Small hydropower (GW) Wind power Solar energy Power generation PV power generation Solar thermal utilization (100 million m2) Solar house (10,000 m2) Solar oven (10,000 units) Biomass energy Power generation(MW) Biomass ethanol(10,000 tonne) Biodiesel(10,000 tonne) methane (100 million cu.m) 2005 117 38 1.26 70MW 0.8 1514.4 68.6 2000 102 5 80 2009 190 60 25.8 300MW 1.45 1733.8 148.4 3240 165 50 140 2010 210 40 800MW 1.6 5500 180 50 140 growth rate (%) 62.4% 57.9% 1947.6% 328.6% 81.3% 14.5% 116.3% 62.0% 61.8% 900.0% 75.0%
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Thanks!
chenwy@tsinghua.edu.cn guoshiyi@tsinghua.edu.cn

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