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BUY
CMP Target Price `165 `212
12 Months
Angel est.
139 9
2QFY12
128 2 1.6 (7)
2QFY11
131 11 8.7 5
% chg (yoy)
(2.1) (81.9) (705)bp (255.0)
% diff
(8.3) (76.7)
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Reported PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
Hitachi Home & Life Science Solutions (HHLS) reported disappointing 2QFY2012 results. The companys revenue declined marginally by 2.1% yoy to `128cr in 2QFY2012. On the profitability front, the company reported a loss of `7cr (includes forex loss of `7.8cr) in 2QFY2012 as compared to a profit of `5cr in 2QFY2011. We maintain our FY2013E earnings estimates at `41cr while EBITDA margins are expected to improve from 7.4% in FY2011 to 7.8% in FY2013E due to better operating leverage. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. Below-expectation performance: Net sales declined by 2.1% yoy to `128cr. EBITDA margin came in at 1.6% in 2QFY2012, down 705bp yoy from 8.7% in 2QFY2011, on the back of higher other expenses and employee expenses. On the bottom-line front, the company reported a loss of `7cr mainly due to forex loss of `7.8cr on ECB. Outlook and valuation: We expect HHLS to post a 15% CAGR growth over FY2011-13E, aided by a 14.7% CAGR volume growth for the same period due to increasing per capita income. Copper prices have seen a decline of ~20% in the past six months, which will lead to increased margins going ahead. PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.6% over FY2011-13E to `41cr in FY2013E. At `165, HHLS is trading at 9.3x FY2013E earnings and P/B of 1.7x for FY2013E. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `212, based on a target PE of 12x for FY2013E.
Consumer goods 387 1.2 327 / 136 38,165 10 16,937 5,092 HITA.NS HTHL IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 69.9 11.2 0.6 18.4
3m
1yr
3yr
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2010 640 36.1 46 113.3 9.1 20.0 8.2 2.6 36.6 25.2 0.6 7.1 FY2011 763 19.3 29 (36.2) 7.4 12.8 12.9 2.2 18.4 16.9 0.6 8.3 FY2012E 851 11.5 11 (62.1) 5.3 4.8 34.0 2.1 6.3 10.1 0.5 10.3 FY2013E 1010 18.7 41 264.6 7.8 17.7 9.3 1.7 20.5 19.8 0.5 5.9
Shareen Batatawala
30940000 ext: 6849 shareen.batatawala@angelbroking.com
2QFY2012 128 80 62.7 13 9.8 33 25.9 126 2 1.6 8 4 0 (11) (8.3) (3) 31.7 (7) (5.7) 23 (3.2)
2QFY2011 131 81 62.2 10 7.4 28 21.8 119 11 8.7 3 4 1 7 5.2 2 31.2 5 3.6 23 2.0
yoy chg (%) (2.1) (1.3) 29.9 16.4 5.4 (81.9) 189.9 17.7 (94.1) (256.0) (258.2) (255.0)
1QFY2012 328 224 68.4 12 3.6 66 20.1 302 26 7.9 3 5 0 19 5.8 6 30.7 13 4.0 23
qoq chg (%) (61.0) (64.3) 6.1 (49.9) (58.4) (92.1) 224.9 (5.4) (77.8) (156.2) (158.1) (155.4)
1HFY2012 1H20FY11 456 305 66.8 24 5.3 99 21.7 428 28 6.1 11 9 0 18 3.9 2 13.7 15 3.3 23 436 274 62.8 19 4.4 78 17.9 371 65 14.9 11 7 1 47 10.8 6 13.5 41 9.3 23 17.7
% chg 4.5 11.2 25.6 26.8 15.2 (56.9) (2.8) 21.5 (61.5) 12.6 (61.7) (66.8)
(255.0)
5.7
(155.4)
6.6
(66.8)
For 2QFY2012, HHLS reported a 2.1% yoy decline in its revenue to `128cr (8.3% below our estimate of `139cr). The companys EBITDA margin witnessed a dip of 705bp yoy as compared to 2QFY2011 on the back of ~30% yoy increase in employee expenses. Further, the company reported a loss of `7cr in 2QFY2012 as compared to profit of `5cr in 2QFY2011 due to higher forex losses and increased total expenditure.
Investment rationale
Penetration opportunity in the RAC market in India
Penetration levels for the room air conditioner (RAC) market in India is currently at 3%, which is very low compared to other countries such as China, Malaysia, Korea and Taiwan. China has a 20% penetration rate, while penetration in the US stands at 90%. Per capita income in India grew at a CAGR of 15% over FY2006-11 from `27,123 in FY2006 to `54,835 in FY2011. On a conservative basis, we expect per capita income to grow at a CAGR of 13% over FY2011-13E.
Exhibit 3: Per capita income vs. RAC sales volume for HHLS
80 70 60 350 300 250
(` in '000)
50 40 30 20 10 0 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E AC volume (RHS) Per Capita Income (LHS)
('000 units)
Entry into tier-II and tier-III cities with low-price split AC Kaze
HHLS, which caters to the premium segment, has entered the low-price home air-conditioner segment with the launch of Kaze, with a two-star and three-star rating to cater to the medium-class mass-segment market. The company has increased its presence from 236 towns in June 2010 to ~300 towns currently and is increasing its dealer and distributer base as well.
Assumptions
Growth in air conditioner offtake is dependent on the per capita income of families in India. Due to the slowdown in the economy, we have assumed a CAGR of 13% for FY2011-13E as compared to 15% over FY2006-11 due to which AC sales volume is expected to grow by 9.7% in FY2012E and 20.1% in FY2013E.
Earlier estimates FY2012E 871 6.0 12.0 FY2013E 1040 7.1 17.7
Revised estimates FY2012E 851 5.3 4.8 FY2013E 1010 7.8 17.7
Financial performance
We expect the company to post revenue CAGR of 15% over FY2011-13E, from `763cr in FY2011 to `1,010cr in FY2013E, on the back of volume growth of 14.7% (CAGR) over FY2011-13E for air conditioners. EBITDA margin is expected to improve in FY2013E due to stable raw-material prices to 7.8% of sales in FY2013E from 7.4% of sales in FY2011. The companys earnings are expected to bounce back to `41cr in FY2013E from `29cr and `11cr in FY2011 and FY2012E, respectively.
(%)
(` cr)
600 400
20
10 200 0 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Revenue growth (RHS) Revenue (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
(` cr)
(` cr)
(%)
(%)
6 4 2 0
(`)
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Apr-11
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
4x
8x
12x
16x
Channel check
We interacted with 5-6 dealers of HHLS. The channel check revealed that the air conditioner sales volume has been flat to slightly positive compared to last year. There has been a slight increase in prices of Hitachi Air Conditioners by 2-3% in the past month. HHLS caters mainly to the premium segment, wherein Diakin is the companys main competitor with the highest sales volume. Other players in the premium segment are Mitsubishi and OGeneral. The companys mass premium brand Kaze is doing well in the market.
Oct-11
Risks
Unstable raw-material prices
Steel and copper are the major raw materials used to manufacture air conditioners. Copper prices declined by ~20% from April 2011 to September 2011. However, CRCA prices witnessed an uptrend from July 2011 to September 2011. Such instability in raw-material prices will affect the companys profitability in the long run.
(` per kg)
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11
Source: Bloomberg
Competition
HHLS has a market share of 7% in terms of sales volume and 9% in value terms, while LG is the market leader with a 29% market share in the air conditioner segment. Other players in the same segment are Blue Star, Voltas and Samsung. HHLS is trading at a PE of 34.0x and 9.3x its FY2012E and FY2013E earnings, which is attractive for an MNC.
Industry outlook
As per industry data, the Indian consumer durable industry stands at `35,000cr, as of March 2011. The consumer durable industry can be classified into consumer electronics and consumer appliances. Consumer appliances are further divided into brown goods and white goods. The Consumer Electronics and Appliance Manufacturers Association (CEAMA) has put its growth estimates for the home appliances industry at 20% for FY2012.
Consumer Durable
Consumer Appliance Br own goods K itchen appliances like microwave ove ns, mixers, e tc. White goods Air conditioner Re frigerator Washing machine Othe rs
Source: Industry
` cr ('000)
The RAC market experienced ~31% growth in FY2011 in comparison to ~25% growth in FY2010. The RAC market grew at a CAGR of 20%, while the ductable/CAS market grew at a CAGR of 17% over FY2006-11.
` cr ('000)
4 3 2 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YoY growth 2011 Room Air Conditioner
(%)
20 15 10 5 0
Source: Industry
However, penetration of room air conditioners in India is still low at ~3% only and is expected to grow to 5% by FY2015E. Air conditioners are now affordable both in terms of initial investment and running cost and are now treated as a necessity rather than a luxury item. This promises a strong market for the air conditioner business.
Samsung 19%
Source: Industry
10
The company
HHLS is a subsidiary of Japan's Hitachi Appliances, which holds a 68% stake in the company. HHLS manufactures and sells air conditioners and is engaged in the trading of refrigerators, washing machines and chillers. The companys air conditioners segment includes home AC, commercial or ductable AC and telecom AC categories. The company operates in the mass premium segment. HHLS currently holds a 7% market share in the RAC segment and is No. 1 in the premium segment. In ductable commercial air-conditioner, HHLS has a 17% market share. In the telecom tower air-conditioners category, HHLS is a leader with a 42% market share. The company recently introduced i-clean to cater to the mass premium category with a self-cleaning technology. The company also launched Kaze in the low-price product range.
The company has air conditioner manufacturing facilities in Kadi (north Gujarat) and Jammu with a total capacity of 2,30,000 units per annum. The company re-entered the washing machine segment in FY2011 with higher price range products.
11
12
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 73 42 31 10 245 6 28 120 90 190 55 97 110 45 65 18 254 23 33 116 82 181 74 157 159 54 105 15 330 28 25 180 96 243 88 210 199 68 131 7 485 2 31 327 125 360 125 266 209 85 124 6 493 14 35 324 121 343 150 283 229 104 125 6 583 12 42 384 145 397 187 320 23 60 83 12 2 97 23 82 105 51 2 157 23 124 147 60 3 210 23 149 172 90 4 266 23 157 180 99 4 283 23 194 217 99 4 320 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
13
14
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.1 0.1 17.7 0.3 0.7 2.4 0.2 0.5 30.6 0.5 1.6 6.7 0.5 1.9 2.2 0.4 1.1 18.8 6.1 86 61 146 36 4.3 92 67 158 39 4.0 85 51 133 31 3.8 121 53 156 44 4.1 140 52 156 55 4.4 128 52 156 56 44.4 51.5 67.8 27.0 34.7 22.9 25.2 32.7 36.6 16.9 19.0 18.4 10.1 10.6 6.3 19.8 21.2 20.5 8.7 0.9 5.5 43.0 16.7 0.1 44.7 7.3 0.8 4.0 23.2 22.4 0.3 23.5 7.2 0.8 3.8 22.4 2.0 0.2 26.8 5.3 0.7 3.0 11.5 4.9 0.5 14.9 3.3 0.7 3.2 7.4 8.9 0.5 6.7 5.9 0.7 3.3 13.9 2.2 0.4 18.5 18.4 18.4 21.7 0.0 36.3 9.4 9.4 12.9 0.0 45.5 20.0 20.0 25.2 1.5 63.9 12.8 12.8 19.8 1.5 74.9 4.8 4.8 12.4 1.5 78.2 17.7 17.7 26.0 1.5 94.4 9.0 7.6 4.5 0.0 0.9 8.3 4.0 17.6 12.8 3.6 0.0 0.9 9.6 2.6 8.2 6.6 2.6 0.9 0.6 7.1 2.0 12.9 8.3 2.2 0.9 0.6 8.3 1.8 34.0 13.3 2.1 0.3 0.5 10.3 1.6 9.3 6.4 1.7 0.3 0.5 5.9 1.5 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
15
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
16