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Vulnerability
Crops Wheat, Paddy, Potato, Pulses, Cotton, Vegetables Plantation Crops Coconut, apple
Control Adapted
Yield (Tons)
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
19 80 -8 19 1 82 -8 19 3 84 -8 19 5 86 -8 19 7 88 -8 19 9 90 -9 19 1 92 -9 19 3 94 -9 19 5 96 -9 19 7 98 20 -9 9 00 -2 00 1
Years
Source: HPKVV/ICAR network
+5
1961-1976
1977-1986
1987-1996
1997-2006
Uncertainties
Errors in climate models, crop models and data used No links with future water availability No consideration of weather extremes Future technological developments and socio-economic scenarios
Increasing adaptive capacity of agriculture to climate change Concerns: Changes in mean temperature and rainfall Variability in weather/climate, particularly unpredictable shortterm weather extremes
Conclusions
Climate change is likely to reduce yields of most crops in long-term. In short-term effects may be small (preliminary results, better field data and models needed). Increased climatic variability could cause significant fluctuations in production even in short-term. Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts. These need greater research, policy and financial support. Costs of adaptation are less understood but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher. Adaptation practices take time to become effective. A crop variety, e.g. takes 10-20 yrs to develop. Need to act now.