Paul Gallacher, Technical Analysis, November 3rd

The following charts show some of the key technical patterns, levels, & cycles relevant as at the time of writing. Fibonacci- I have applied various Fibonacci levels using key ranges from differing timescales to various charts, where appropriate. Some of the Fibs are Fib Expansion as opposed to retracement Trend Lines / Channels Again, where appropriate you will find various trend lines & trend channels across various timeframes Levels Omitted from these charts are Pivot levels & other key intraday & longer term levels I have a separate document which I will forward on with these. This is essentially to keep the charts as clean / clear as possible. I have annotated key levels occasionally for reference. Ultimately the purpose of this document is simply to share the content of my charts at this point in time in one document, rather than to suggest these charts are inclusive of everything that should be considered from a technical stand-point. I have added a brief section at the start, prior to the charts, with my own personal view short term for each market. Again, the views are fairly loose, considering ifnromation available today, & the entry / stops / targets / short long views are simply ideas, rather than suggestions Hope you find it useful.

Paul Gallacher

Chart Contents

EURUSD Spot Monthly, Daily, 6 hours, 1 Hour EURJPY Spot Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 6 Hours, 1 Hour EURCF Spot Monthly, Daily, 6 Hours, 1 Hour EURGBP Spot - Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 6 Hours, 1 Hour GBPUSD Spot Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 6 Hours, 1 Hour USDJPY Spot Monthly, Weekly, Daily USDCAD Spot Weekly, Daily, 6 Hours, 1 Hour AUDUSD Spot Monthly, Daily, 1 Hour Emini S&P 500 Continuation 12/11 Daily, 6 Hours, 1 Hour DJIA Continuation 12/11 Daily DAX Future 12/11 Daily, 6 Hours, 1 Hour ESTOXX 50 Future 12/11 Daily, 6 Hours, 1 Hour Crude Continuation 11/11 Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 6 Hours, 1 Hour BUND Monthly, Weekly, Daily,1 Hour GOLD Spot Weekly, Daily

Short term View November - Trading Ideas EURUSD I see the eurusd rally of late as corrective. I favor downside for the EURUSD moving towards the 135 area, & then testing the recent low at 1.3146. Looking at the monthly charts it is quite clear we are making a series of lower highs. Fundamentally the underlying issues should weigh on the euro. SHORT Entry 1.4013 61.8% Fib Aug high / Oct low Stop 1.4250 Target 1 1.3608 1st Nov low Target 2 1.3146 4th October low

EURJPY This is one that is tougher to call. The Japanese central bank are intent on intervention to stem the strength of the yen, however factor in the underlying fundamentals weighing on the euro we have different forces driving this pair. Yen Strength ultimately for me I am not trading this If I was however, SHORT Entry 114.71 s stop 115.85 Target - 112.04

EURCHF The SNB, similar to the Japanese central bank, are in intervention mode. Given this, & factoring in the weakness of the euro I would favor a tight trading range, with a bias towards CHF strength. Neutral Short I am not trading this If I was however, SHORT Entry 1.27 stop 1.2737 Target 1.1657

EURGBP I favor sterling strength The UK are delivering very loose monetary policy with record low interest rates set to continue, & recently announcing another 75 billion sterling of QE, however that is priced in for me. UK data isnt great, better than expected GDP recently at 0.5% vs expected 0.3% all be it balanced out by poor manufacturing data. Ultimately though I feel the UK are on the right path, whilst the eurozone is in a real mess. Sterling strength SHORT Entry 0.8591 Stop 0.8625 Target 0.8474

GBPUSD My view for November is one of risk off I see the traditional safe haven yen & Swiss franc as not being the safe haven of choice given their respective central bank intervention issues. I see the USD as the main beneficiary for safe haven capital flows in November given the fact the issue is one of liquidity. Therefore I favor dollar strength in the cable pair. SHORT Entry 1.60 Stop 162 Target 1 1.5890 Target 2 1.5781 USDJPY I favor USD strength On Monday we had the long awaited Intervention from Japan which at its high had the pair spike 400 points. At the recent lows we had the 5th wave in the cycle play out, and now I see upside in this pair with the theme being USD strength. LONG Entry 77.50 Stop 76.49 Target 1 80.24 Target 2 81.49

USDCAD Again, dollar strength for me in November Risk off, with CAD being strongly correlated with Oil, & other risk factors being taken into account, for me the only way for this pair in the short term is dollar strength LONG Entry 1.0370 Stop 1.0418 Target 1.0027

AUDUSD There is a definite theme here with my views Dollar strength again The RBA dropped rates by 25 basis points, and the analyst view is that over the next 12 months we will see a further 100 basis point drop, a move away from the previously hawkish stance to a more dovish one. Australian CPI is weakening, & economic data pulling back. Add risk off, & we have dollar strength. SHORT Entry 1.0380 Stop 1.0425 Target 1.0333

E-mini S&P 500 Future 12/11 The S&P had a false break above the late summer / autumn range, threatening to move back towards the year highs in Q4. Personally, I was always sceptical in that sense, and as things are at the moment that has proven to be correct. The resurfacing of eurozone concerns being the main catalyst for the current risk off scenario. US data has been improving, & corporate earnings in the main have been decent. Therefore, with the fears of a US double dip removed for now, I see downside being limited, however with the Eurozone issues prevalent, I also see upside limited. So a range of 1120 to 1250 seems fair for the index through Q4. We are back under the 200ma- Short SHORT Entry 1250 Stop 1290 Target 1185 DAX & ESTOXX 50 Future 12/11 Same view as S&P given the tight correlations SHORT BOTH DAX Entry 6,168 Stop 6,200 Target 5,715 ESTOXX Entry 2,345 Stop 2,450 Target 2,176

Crude Assuming USD strength & Gold moving to the upside, coupled with a risk off scenario I feel Crude will see some downside. Adding into the equation potential Oil flows from Libya and so on. SHORT Entry 92.850 Stop 94.575 Target 87.025

Bund Naturally in a risk off environment we would generally see the Bund move to the upside. I favor a test of the highs, all be it nothing to aggressive. NEUTRAL LONG Entry 1.3753 Stop 1.3681 Target 1.3854

Gold The Yellow metal has had a bit of a rollercoaster of late. Reaching new all time highs of above $1,900 per troy ounce, then pulling back aggressively to around $1,532. The aggressive move down was possibly a cocktail including liquidations to cover long risk on trades gone wrong / margin calls, a lack of inflation concerns in the US, a flushing out of speculators, & a safe haven flow into the USD given its strength in times of liquidity requirements. Gold has settled to a degree now, and I would envisage some nominal upside. LONG Entry 1615 Stop 1595 Target - 1752

If anyone requires any clarification on anything within this document please do not hesiate to contact me.

Remaining Pages Show all relevant charts

Disclaimer: Intraday Analysis is a blog published simply & wholy for the sharing of information & ideas. Information or opinions provided by us should not be used for investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments. When making a decision about your investments, you should seek the advice of a professional financial adviser.