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MEMORANDUM To: Fr: Date: Re: Lisa Lewis, Jim Franco, The Record Tom Nardacci, Eric Wohlleber November 4, 2011 Survey Results

The following is a memorandum detailing an automated/robo poll survey answered by 978 voters in the City of Troy. Gramercy Communications conducted the poll on behalf of the Troy Record. The poll was designed to gauge the publics attitude about the race for Mayor. The poll was conducted Tuesday November 1, 2011 and Thursday, November 3, between 6:30 PM 8:30 PM. The margin of error for the survey results is +/- 3.2%. To ensure authentic results, the poll was conducted as a simple random sample of the voting population, meaning each individual in the active voting population had an equal chance of being called. The total size of the voting population contacted was 7,196. With 978 total responses the survey had a good response rate, making the results both reliable and accurate. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WAS ASKED AND RESULTS WERE GIVEN: 1.) If the race for mayor were held today for whom would you vote? On Tuesday November 1st the automated call listed Lou Rosamilia before Carmella Mantello. This order was reversed on Thursday November 3rd to stunt any potential recency effect. For this survey, we also used a choice of undecided. KEY POINTS Rosamilia has expanded his lead over Mantello from 1.5% to 10.9%. With 19.1% of the vote still undecided, the race is still going to be down to the wire. This continues the major shift from the initial results when Mantello held a 20-point lead over thencandidate Clem Campana and voters identified the issue of voter fraud as being important. Rosamilias continued climb with Democrats (+8.4%) and with voters with no party affiliation (+3.1%) are directly related to this increased margin. 19.1% of voters are undecided. 45.9% of respondents would vote for Lou Rosamilia, and 35.0% for Carmella Mantello if the election were held today. On October 18, Rosamilia led 40.3% to 38.8%, with 20.9% undecided.

Rosamilia expanded his lead by an additional 6.7% (45.0% - 33.0%) over Mantello among voters with no party affiliation (blanks), an important Troy voting block. 22.0% are still undecided. Mantello maintains a lead over Rosamilia amongst Republicans 55.6% - 28.3%, with 16.1% undecided. Rosamilia has expanded his lead over Mantello amongst Democrats 56.2% - 25.6%, with 18.2% undecided. On October 18, Rosamilia was leading 47.8% - 29.0%. Rosamilia leads Mantello in five of Troys six Council Districts. Rosamilias strongest performance is in District Six with 54.4% of the vote. 28.8% for Mantello. Mantellos strongest performance is in District Three with 39.8% of the vote. 45.9% for Rosamilia Mantello has a slim lead in District Four (38.9% - 35.6%)

OVERALL RESULTS This poll provides a complete projection of the Troy mayoral race with a sample size of 978. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.2%. Results for each question follow: Welcome to the City of Troy political poll. 1) If the race for mayor were held today for whom would you vote? Rosamilia 45.9% (449) Mantello 35.0% (342) Undecided 19.1% (187)

RESULTS BY POLITICAL PARTY The following results are broken up by party registration. Given our sample size, results for the Conservative, Green, Independence and Working Families parties are not statistically significant. Political Party Democrats Republicans No Party (Blanks) Mayor Rosamilia 56.2% (200) Mantello 25.6% (91) Undecided 18.2% (65) Rosamilia 28.3% (58) Mantello 55.6% (114) Undecided 16.1% (33) Rosamilia 45.0% (135) Mantello 33.0% (99) Undecided 22.0% (66)

RESULTS BY COUNCIL DISTRICT While there is not an ideal amount of respondents from any individual Council District (approximately 400 or more would be ideal), it is worthwhile to present the District-by-District breakdown. Rosamilia leads Mantello across the board in each of Troys six Council Districts, except for District Four. District D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 Total: Lou Rosamilia 44.2% (95) 41.3% (59) 45.9% (61) 35.6% (32) 47.6% (98) 54.4% (104) 45.9% (449) Carmella Mantello 35.3% (76) 36.4% (52) 39.8% (53) 38.9% (35) 34.4% (71) 28.8% (55) 35.0% (342)

CALL SUMMARY status Live Answer Answering Machine Operator Intercept No Ring No Answer Busy Fax DoNotCall Removed Total: -------------------- Messages Delivered Not Connected count Tuesday November 1 percent 2937 37.3 1913 24.3 1718 21.8 719 9.1 482 6.1 52 0.7 39 0.5 7 0.1 7867 100 0 0 4850 61.6 3017 38.4

status Live Answer Operator Intercept Answering Machine No Answer No Ring


Thursday November 3 percent 2318 32.2 2041 28.4 1875 26.1 468 6.5 401 5.6

Busy 50 0.7 Fax 36 0.5 DoNotCall Removed 7 0.1 Total: 7196 100 -------------------- 0 0 Messages Delivered 4193 58.3 Not Connected 3003 41.7 NOTE: CORRECTION REQUIRED FROM 10/18/2011 MEMO In our 10/18/2011 survey results memo, we inadvertently incorporated minor party voters (Conservative, Independence, Working Families, etc) into the No Party/Blanks breakdown. We did not do this in earlier memos. Below is what was listed in the 10/18/2011 memo: RESULTS BY POLITICAL PARTY The following results are broken up by party registration. Given our sample size, results for the Conservative, Independence and Working Families parties are not statistically significant. No Party (Blanks) Rosamilia 41.9% (230) Mantello 36.6% (201) Undecided 21.3% (117) Favorable 65.6% Unfavorable 34.3% Below is the corrected info for 10/18/2011: No Party (Blanks) Rosamilia 41.5% (161) Mantello 36.1% (140) Undecided 22.4% (87) Favorable 67.3% Unfavorable 32.7%
ABOUT GRAMERCY COMMUNICATIONS Gramercy Communications offers voter opinion polling to a wide range of clients, from candidates for public office, to organizations and companies interested in public policy issues. During the past five years, Gramercy Communications has conducted over 100 automated/robo polls. Gramercy Communications was founded by Tom Nardacci, a Democrat who has managed or consulted on dozens of campaigns for federal, state and local offices. Gramercy Communications Vice President Eric Wohlleber is a Republican who has consulted on several regional campaigns. Wohlleber is a former broadcast journalist and has worked for a number of GOP candidates and elected officials. www.GramercyCommunications.com