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International crisis simulation* The disputed area of Kashmir UNSC crises meeting

BACKGROUND In 1947 the Indian subcontinent become independent from Great Britain and was partitioned into the newly created Muslim state of Pakistan and the secular Hindu Majority State of India. The 565 autonomous princely states, once a part of the British Empire, were advised to join either India or Pakistan taking into account there religious and geographical characteristics. The Maharaja Hari Singh of KASHMIR wanted to stay
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Prepared by Antonia Colibasanu, MsC., course notes - Inspired and based on the International Youth Leadership Conference, Prague, 2004 documents, Oxfam International Library, TFAS IIPES Conflict Management course

independent and was unable to choose which country of the two accede to he was Hindu but the majority of Kashmiris were Muslim. Some months later, tribesman from Pakistan invaded Kashmir and violence broke out in the region. In a state of emergency, the Maharaja appealed for help from India under the Indian-imposed condition that Kashmir would accede to India temporarily in return for military aid and the promise of an eventual referendum. This move aloud India jurisdiction over external affaires, defense and communications. Pakistan has contested the accession ever since. The United Nations adopted in 1948 a resolution that is established a three members UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION for INDIA and PAKISTAN (UNCIP) to serve as mediating body in the territorial dispute. This led to the creation of the observation mission cold the United Nations military observer group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) to monitor the cease- fire that divides Kashmirs Pakistan and India control territories. After years of violence the Line of Control divides Kashmir into one-third Pakistani administered territory and two-thirds Indian administered territory. A small part of Kashmir is under Chinese administration. Pakistanis contest the legality of the accession on two counts: the first is that the Maharaja made an impulsive decision under great stress and the second because the Maharaja fled to India before he acceded he was no longer in command of his state and therefore was not in a position to take decisions on behalf of his people. Two of the three wars between India and Pakistan were fought over the status of Kashmir. India is 81% Hindu, 12% Muslim and the remainder Christian, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, and Parsi. There are over 34 languages spoken by over a billion people in the State. Kashmir is the only Muslim in the Indian Union. Pakistan has a population of over 150 million: 97% Muslim (77% Suni and 20% Shia). The remaining 3% is made up of Christians, Hindus and other.

THE CRISIS Yesterday, in the Indian Controlled territory of Kashmir, a prominent Muslim leader was killed in the capital city of Srinagar. This event in conjunction with the last weeks killing of 27 people by the Islamic militants near Jammu, has resulted in a heated verbal clash between Indian and Pakistani leaders. The Indian defense minister has pledged retribution for the killing of the 27 civilians and now the international community is waiting to see how the Indian government will choose to respond to last weeks massacre. Pakistani general Moreshi announced that any incursions into Pakistani territory or into Azad, the Pakistani controlled part of Kashmir will be responded too and met with full force.

Both sides have deployed thousands of troops along the Line of Control that separate Kashmir. At this stage both Indian and Pakistani governments have put the nuclear forces on the highest state of alert. The situation has become so tense that one provocation is likely to throw the region into cause. A terrorist attack committed on the side of Pakistan would no doubt lead to retaliation by India. Pakistans bettertrained ground forces could surmount an initial offensive, but Indias more superior conventional forces would overpower Pakistan in the second stage of the conflict. With no other option left, Pakistan would resort to its nuclear arsenal and India would then retaliate with the nuclear weapon of its own. There is the widespread fear that if India were to destabilize the Pakistani state then Pakistani guerillas would have no deterrent and would step up terrorist attack throughout the region. This loss of control may be enough to create panic throughout the government and with no other option, Pakistan could resort to nuclear warfare. If nuclear weapons were to be used, millions in the region would die and that will possibly devastating effects on the entire world (depending on the weather conditions). The International Community is therefore urging the UN to step in so that nuclear catastrophe may be averted. The heated tensions arising from the most recent events must be suppressed over the next two weeks in order to avoid a nuclear confrontation. One of the greatest difficulties for the UN in deciding the legitimacy of each claim is arriving at a set of common criteria and norms with which Pakistan and India can make their claims. Pakistan argues for the entire Kashmir region because of what is perceived to be a right of identity to the area as it is predominately Muslim. India bases its claim on a political right based on the instruments of accession signed by the Maharaja in 1947 and the outcome of the 1971 India-Pakistan War. India adheres to the conditions set forth in the 1972 Simla Agreement calling for a bilateral discussion with no outside interference. Pakistan insists that the 1948 and 1949 UN resolutions on Kashmir advocating a settlement of the territory in accordance with the will of the People in the region take precedence in negotiating the dispute. PROCEEDINGS The simulation will be run as follows: The UN Secretary General will call the meeting to order and introduce the crisis at hand. He or she will then request that diplomats break into groups to discuss individual country positions and come up with viable ways that the international community might respond to the crisis. Representatives from the UN will observe and take notes on different party negotiations. After 20 mins. representatives will have the opportunity to freely discuss the crisis with other diplomats and lobby for support for their countrys particular recommendations (10 mins). Once this period is up, negotiations will stop and the UN officials call everyone back to the table to give individual country positions on the crisis. Each diplomat will have one minute to read a short speech to the Secretary General explaining his or her position. The Secretary General will then allow time for debate among those present, in which representatives can address each other on specific points regarding the issue. After the Secretary closes debate, the UN will organize a press statement to announce how the UN will respond to the current crisis.

ROLES UN SECTION UN Secretary General It is the task of the Secretary General to call the meeting to order. He or she will introduce the crisis, ask the delegates to come together in small groups and to establish a consensus as to what course of action should be taken and ask all delegates to present the stance of their countries and debate their recommendations on how the UN should proceed. During the times that the groups are discussing the crisis, the Secretary General will observe their conversations and take notes. After some other 10 minutes, while the countries representatives will have the opportunity to lobby, the Secretary General will call everyone together for a group discussion. The discussion will focus on the recommendations regarding what the UN will do. The Secretary will then leave the room and come back with a small speech for the press stating the UN position. Secretary The Secretary to the Secretary General has been a very close ally to the UN leader for many years. The Secretary has always kept a close eye on ratings and public support. Caution seems to be the best course of action right now. For many years now the UN has seemed inadequate to deal with complex international situations. Failures in Bosnia, Somalia, Rwanda and Iraq among others have turned the public against the UN and have led to the popular opinion that UN is in fact powerless. The primary job of the Secretary is to reverse that perception to convince the general public that UN is a necessary institution that can play a vital role in navigating international crises. He has his current position on the strength of his diplomatic skills and reputation for finding a compromise without resorting to force; therefore it is very important to him to ensure that these crises are resolved by negotiations and that they take place under the governance and rules of the UN. He also helps to watch the time during the negotiation and helps drafting the speech to the press. UN Special Representative to the Region The head of a UN diplomatic mission is the most qualified person within the UN to make judgments pertaining to Kashmir. He/She is particularly aware of how the world has been unable to take a specific action to resolve the issue at hand and that the potential for wider conflict in the region is acute. It is time to take action that would resolve the issue once and for all. As with the UN Secretary the Special Representative to the Region believe that the UN has an important role to play in mediating international crises, but also recognizes that mediation must often be backed with force.

UN Head of Peacekeeping As the highest-ranking military authority in the UN structure, he/she is acutely aware of the dangers in sending peacekeepers into such a situation. With no cease-fire agreement in place any soldiers would be without a clear mandate. Previous experience has shown this to be ineffective. In addition you also recognize the difficulties in lining up contributing nations in an area where few would be considered neutral. UN SECURITY COUNCIL PERMANENT MEMBERS Chinese Diplomat Diplomatically speaking China tends to side overwhelmingly with Pakistan on issues pertaining to Kashmir. This pro-Pakistani position dates back to the 1962 IndoChina war. China remains with a vested interest on the Kashmir conflict because it controls a part of Kashmirs territory, has supplied weapons and nuclear technology to Pakistan, and shares borders with the disputed areas. Despite this, China seeks to exercise quiet diplomacy so as to avoid an escalation of tensions and war so close to its borders. Also China is concerned by Islamic extremism in some parts of China, especially in the region of Xinjiang, and denounces acts of terrorism. The issue of Kashmir is particularly sensitive in that China would not want to take a position that could later have implications for its own situation with Tibet. At the same time, China is put off by Indias arrogance and belligerence over the issue. Chinas clear-cut position maintains that parties concerned should find a fair and rational solution through peaceful means. American Diplomat Throughout history, the United States has taken many positions on how to resolve the disputed territory of Kashmir. Pakistan was once strategic ally to the United States during the Cold War era. Only a decade ago the US went so far as to advocate selfdetermination for the Kashmiris and questioned Indias legal right to the territory. However, times have changed and Indias size and political position have become much more recognized by the United States in recent years. Pakistan is seen as being a platform for terrorism. After the demise of the Taliban, the US seems to be swinging back in favor of India. But Indo-Pakistani tension and the movement of Pakistani troops away from the Afghan border into Kashmir reminds the US of the importance of Pakistani support. The US must be careful to remain as neutral as possible at this time since American troops are stationed in Pakistan. At this moment, the U.S would like to buy as much time as possible, knowing that the threat of nuclear engagement is less likely when tensions have cooled over the most recent violent acts. The United States has the ability to bring about dialogue and may even be able to finally get Pakistan to sign the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The U.S. could offer to monitor the border.

British Diplomat In recent weeks, John Stray has been exceptionally careful to acknowledge Indias sensitivities on third party intervention in Kashmir, claiming that ultimately it was for India and Pakistan alone to resolve their differences. This is hardly enough to ease Indias old fears about Britains perceived pro Pakistani tilt on the issue. There is a long history between Britain and South Asia due to a legacy of colonial rule, and at present there are significant Pakistani and Indian Diasporas in the United Kingdom. It has been said that the British diplomat is oblivious to the interests of Kashmiris and most suspect, due to his eagerness to be an honest broker, he has an ulterior motive of wanting international recognition for successful mediation of the dispute. French Diplomat France is using the debate over Kashmir to align with other European Union members, thus promoting a future role for the EU in intervening in the settlement of the dispute. France is quick to recognize its long-standing and friendly relations with Pakistan, overrating Pakistans geo-strategic location and the countrys importance in assuring stability in the region. However, of the P-5 countries, France was the first to publicly declare its support for Indias candidature for permanent membership in the Security Council. While seeming neutral, France sees India as the regional superpower and a strategic market. Officially, you believe that the negotiated solution should remain in the spirit of the Simla Accords. Russian Diplomat Indo-Soviet relations go back over half a century. Over the years, Russia has supplied weapons and defense technology, and has signed mutual defense agreements with India. Russia has played the role of mediator in past conflicts, however tends to acknowledge Indias legal claim to the territory as legitimate. Despite this, Moscow has not broken off diplomatic ties with Islamabad but continues to fear that Pakistan could become a harbor for Chechen rebels and a base for terrorism. Because the countries are all geographically tied, Russia fears an escalation in the conflict that could destabilize the region as well as cause a nuclear catastrophe that would endanger the country. Russia openly tries to retain good diplomatic relations with both India and Pakistan and would like a win-win situation for both counties. Russia advocates settling the dispute by peaceful means on a bilateral basis specified by the 1972 Smla agreement without any outside interference. UN SECURITY COUNCIL NON-PERMANENT MEMBERS Iranian Diplomat Although Iran is a non-Arab country, the Muslim state consistently supports the Arab bloc in all matters presented before the United Nations. An escalation in Jihad for the liberation of Kashmir is key to a demonstration of strategic prominence and to

maintaining the regional power position of Tehran as the preeminent Islamic state. However, Iran is unable to wholeheartedly support Pakistan for fomenting unrest in the name of Islam and possibly harboring Taliban rebels. Pakistan and the Taliban represent the Pushtun ethnic people in the region who have a feudal history with the Shia Hazaras and Tajik people of Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. Now may be the time to lobby for self- determination, even independence, of the Kashmiri people. Recently, Iran has strengthened diplomatic ties with India in the hope of cultivating trade. Pakistani Diplomat There is an obvious solution to the Kashmir dispute - let the Kashmiri people vote on whether they want to belong to the Pakistani or Indian state. It is unquestionable that they would feel an affinity to Pakistan, being that they are religiously and ethnically one people. Indias claims to Kashmir are illegitimate because the Maharaja was tricked by force into signing the instruments of accession. Throughout history, Hindus and Muslims have been enemies because Hindus have oppressed Muslims and violated their political and human rights. India uses its large size and military might to impose its beliefs and dominate both Kashmir and Pakistan. In addition, Islamabad vehemently denies involvement in supplying Kashmiri insurgents with logistical and material support. The United Nations should mediate this dispute, and assistance from the international community is welcomed. Yemeni Diplomat Egyptian Diplomat The Arab bloc constitutes six votes in the United Nations, including Irak, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Egypt. Pakistan and Iran overwhelmingly vote with the Arab bloc because of a common religious faith. The Egyptian diplomat deplores the Western tendency to be selective in identification of terrorist groups. This being said, the most significant political challenge that Arab governments face today is denouncing groups that use religion as the main vehicle for mass mobilization. It would not look good to be perceived as a puppet to Pakistans sacred mission of liberating Kashmir. INTERNATIONAL BLOC Czech Diplomat The Czech Republic remains fairly neutral on the issue of the territorial dispute over Kashmir. Because its sights are set on membership in the European Union, the Czech position tends to reverberate that of the European Bloc and most specifically that of France. Czechoslovakia was Indias choice to be one of the five members of the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan to settle the Jammu and Kashmir question.

German Diplomat Spanish Diplomat The Secretary General of the Council of the European Union and High Representative, Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) has made clear that the European Union is strongly against acts of terrorism in the name of Kashmir and calls for a peaceful negotiated solution to the Kashmir question. The German and Spanish Diplomats would like to ascertain that Pakistan put a permanent end to infiltration and cross-border terrorism, so as to dismantle the infrastructure of terrorists. India has vigilantly been watching the growth of the EU and has achieved great success in economic terms not to mention the steady evolution of a common security and foreign policy. The country should be commended on its democratic values. India receives Official Development Aid from Germany, who is an important economic partner. Colombian Diplomat Colombia is neutral in its position over Kashmir, and is confident that the United Nations has the ability to diffuse tensions between India and Pakistan. Having much experience with civil war Colombia understands the complexity in dealing with long, deeply rooted conflicts. The possibility of a nuclear threat is of paramount concern and it is hoped that a cease-fire will be called and both parties will come to the negotiating table. Discussions pertaining to the Kashmir dispute should be mediated by a third party, whether it is the United Nations or the United States. NOTE: The Columbian Diplomat is the chairman of the Security Council during the period when the crisis is being discussed. ASIAN BLOC Indian Diplomat After last weeks slaying of 27 by Islamic militants, India is prepared to command ground forces already present at the LOC to engage in full battle. New Delhi is fed up with the increasing amount of weapons and money that Pakistan is supplying to Kashmiri militants who have been fighting Indian rule in a violent separatist movement since 1989. India demands that the solution to the Kashmir dispute lies in the legal settlement of the territory dating back to the 1971 India-Pakistan War, as well as the signing of the Instrument of Accession in October 1947 by the Maharaja thus legally acceding Kashmir to India. India is a secular state and does not recognize religion, caste, gender or ethnicity as a basis for territorial division. The country is acutely aware that one of the terms of the Simla Agreement is abstention from force, and does not want to undermine its claims to uphold the agreement. Third party intervention is not an option, nor is Kashmiri independence. Under the current circumstance, Pakistan would have to promise to stop supporting

terrorist movements and halt cross-border infiltration before India will come to the negotiating table. Japanese Diplomat As Asias only superpower, Japan is gravely concerned that tensions between India and Pakistan will have a destabilizing effect in South Asia, having a negative impact on peace and security in the entire Asian region and throughout the rest of the world. Although inclined to stay silent on the specific issue of the disputed territory of Kashmir, Tokyo curtails the issue by stressing the need to move forward with nuclear disarmament, to uphold and bolster the international non- proliferation regime, and to underscore the need for the international community to address this matter in hopes of promoting dialogue between India and Pakistan dialogue which will be designed to reduce tensions between the two countries. This is by no means a bilateral issue, and the international community should stay involved so as to diffuse tensions in the region. Turkmen Diplomat India has been pressuring Turkmenistan to guarantee a gas supply stoppage to Pakistan in the event of an attack. Recent talks between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan over the TAP gas pipeline project have forced the countries into a political and economic alliance amid an ongoing tussle for influence over the Caspians oil and gas wealth. The pipeline, which would export gas from Turkmenistan to Pakistan, would bring tremendous economic prosperity to Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan is a Muslim majority state. Nepalese Diplomat Geographically, Nepal sits nestled between China and India. The Nepalese identify with their Indian neighbors, with an overwhelmingly Hindu majority, and Kathmandu officially asserts that Nepalese soil will not stand to be used to support any activity that may harm the interest of India. There have been recent reports that Pakistan has been funding the spread of Muslim Fundamentalism in the Terai region of Nepal. Sources say that Pakistani operatives have transferred tremendous amounts of money to Nepalese Muslims for carrying out anti-India training programmes. The Nepalese government is outraged and sympathizes with Indias distress. RELEVANT DOCUMENTS
RESOLUTION ADOPTED BY THE UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION FOR INDIA AND PAKISTAN ON 13 AUGUST 1948. (DOCUMENT NO. S/1100, PARA 75, DATED THE 9TH NOVEMBER, 1948) http://www.kashmiricc.ca/un/sc13aug48.htm RESOLUTION ADOPTED AT THE MEETING OF THE UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION FOR INDIA AND PAKISTAN ON 5 JANUARY, 1949. (DOCUMENT NO. S/1196, PARA IS, DATED THE 10TH JANUARY, 1949) http://www.kashmiri-cc.ca/un/sc5jan49.htm