[report

Group: -

: group assignment ]

Bch Hng Nhung Lng Th La Phm Hng Hnh

June, 2010

INTRODUCTION
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The real situation of education has been become one of the most concerned issue nowadays since the standard of living increases day by day. So we decide to do a report all of data that we collected from 20 high schools randomly and

independently from Hanoi city. As a part of living, the education issue grow over time, but how much it grow, and the real qualitative result from the development of educating system. In particular, we will examine the numbers of class per school, the number of teacher per school, the proportion of school that have library, the graduated score, and the proportion of graduated students per school. Note that all of data and statistic we have here may provide necessary information for latter assumption. These statistics can commit some mistake from the processing activities, and be subjective because of the limited sample n = 20. Through this report we want to study the relationship between the quality of education in different location like Ha Noi and Lang Son to consider this different, we dont make any assumption about these statistics due to the

limited sampling difficulty, just fairly present and analyze the collected data.

school 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

classe s 32 42 34 36 31 40 44 34 36 40 32 34 38 32 40 36 32 34 36 38

Question 1: Construct the confidence interval for the mean of classes in high schools in Hanoi city? From the data table that already given aside; we can determine the mean of classes of schools which are located in Hanoi city We can use Megastat to construct the confidence interval (CI) for the population mean of classes in schools that located in Hanoi city. We assume that the population standard deviation is unknown and the population is normally distributed. Then, as the population standard deviation is unknown, we can substitute the sample standard deviation s and use students t distribution by Megastat to construct CI for the population mean of classes Descriptive statistics count mean sample variance sample standard population variance population standard standard error of the confidence interval confidence interval half-width number of 20 36.05 13.73 3.71 13.05 3.61 0.83 34.32 37.78 1.73

We can calculate the sample mean by using descriptive statistics in Megastat as follows: Using Megastat, we can construct CI of the population mean with 1sample t test with: -

Variable: number of classes Test mean = 36.05 Confidence level = 1 - = 1 0.5 = 0.95 The Megastat result above shows us that: CI for the population mean of classes in Ha Noi high school is between 34.32 and 37.78 In other words, we are 95% confident that the true mean of classes is between 34.32 and 37.78. Or although the interval from 34.32 to 37.78 may or may not contain the true variance of population, 95% of the intervals formed from samples of size 20 in this manner will contain the true variance. This result also may show that in Hanoi city, the number of classes per school is kind of large, but equally for each school since the interval is not too wide. But because the sample is small so the assumption may not true. Question 2: Construct the confident interval for variance of the number of the class from school that is located in Hanoi city. From the data table that already given above; we can determine the confident interval for variance of classes of schools which are located in Hanoi city We can use Megastat to construct the confidence interval (CI) for the population variance of classes in schools that located in Hanoi city. We assume that : The population is normally distributed with variance and the observed sample variance is s We can calculate the 95% confident interval for variance of a Normal population by using descriptive statistics in Megastat as follows: 4

30.000 13.734 20 19 8.70 .0437 7.943 29.299

hypothesized variance observed variance of Number of n df chi-square p-value (two-tailed) confidence interval 95.% lower confidence interval 95.% upper

The result above shows us that: Confidence interval for the variance of the number of the class from the schools that is located in Hanoi is between 7.934 and 29.299 In other words, we are 95% confident that the population variance of the number of classes is between 7.934 and 29.299. Or: Although the interval from 7.934 to 29.299 may or may not contain the true variance of population, 95% of the intervals formed from samples of size 20 in this manner will contain the true variance. Question 3: Finding the confidence interval for the proportion of the schools having library From the data table that already given aside; we can determine the interval for the proportion of school which are located in Hanoi city having library as follows: School No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Library 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1

To know the confident interval of the population proportion schools which are located in Hanoi city having library, we use megastat to compute the confident interval from the input that is process as below: 5

Our assumption is that: Sample of schools which is in Hanoi city are taken randomly and independently. Population of schools is normally distributed Schools having library are denoted by 1 Schools not having library are denoted by 0 We want an estimate of the proportion of the schools in Hanoi which have library. From a random sample of 20 schools in Hanoi, it was found that 14 schools have library (as shown in the table above). Therefore, the proportion of the schools having library is: p = 14/20 = 0.7 We can construct the confidence interval for the proportion of the schools having library by using Confidence interval p in Megastat with the following data: Sample size n = 20, Sample proportion p = .7 Confidence level = 1 - = 1 0.5 = 0.95 Megastat shows the result following: Confidence interval 95% 0.7 20 1.96 0.20 0.90 0.49 confidence level proportion n z half-width upper confidence lower confidence

The result above shows us that: Confidence interval for the proportion of the schools having library is between 49.9% and 90.1%. In other words, we are 95% confident that the true mean of the schools having library is between 49.9% and 90.1%. 6

Or: Although the interval from 0.499 to 0.901 may or may not contain the true proportion, 95% of the intervals formed from samples of size 20 in this manner will contain the true proportion. With this result we can see that schools having library have may have a large and wide interval with this sample. 4. Hypothesis tests of the mean number of teacher in one school in Hanoi We obtain a random sample of 20 schools. From the data table that already given in the below; we can determine the average number of teachers of schools which are located in Hanoi city as follows: To know whether the population means of the number of teachers from schools which are located in Hanoi city are difference or not with the hypothesis mean - 130, we can use hypothesis testing in the case of population means of independent samples with unknown variances. Our assumption is that: Sample of schools which is in Hanoi to determine the number of teachers are taken randomly and independently. Population of teachers is normally distributed So denote like that: : the mean of number of teachers from schools in Hanoi city According to last years data: The mean number of teacher = = 130 Our objective is to obtain strong evidence that the mean number of teacher, , is smaller than 130. So, we can use the one tail test as follow: Ho : 130 Test the hypothesis: { H1 : < 130 Megastat result:

School 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Number 135 120 161 102 150 133 136 147 112 144 103 108 127 129 124 152 143 146 141 122

Hypothesis Test: Mean vs. Hypothesized Value 130.000 131.750 16.883 3.775 20 19 0.46 .6759 123.848 139.652 7.902 hypothesized value mean Number of std. dev. std. error n df t p-value (one-tailed, confidence interval confidence interval margin of error

The MegaStat result above shows us that: p-value = 0.6750 > = 0.05 therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis. This mean that there is not sufficient evidence that the mean number of teachers of schools from Hanoi city is smaller than 130. But still although we fail to reject the null hypothesis, we do not know the probability of error, and it may be the null hypothesis is true or our procedure was not strong enough to reject. Question 5: Compare the mean of the graduated grade of students of schools which are located in Hanoi and Lang Son City From the data table that already given in the beginning; we can determine the average graduated grade of students of schools which are located in Hanoi city and Lang Son city as follows:
From Hanoi 32.8 35 29.1 44.4 48.7 49.2 25.5 30.5 46.2 39.1 24 36.7 38.1 29.9 40.6 38.4 39.4 44.8 27.7 31.9 From Lng Sn 23.1 34.5 49.1 26.5 27.9 22.2 20.6 31.4 30.8 19.9 45.5 39.5 26.9 29.5 32 46 21.4 17 24.9 38.7

To know whether the population means of graduated grade between schools which are located in Hanoi city and Lang Son city are difference or not, we can use hypothesis testing in the case of population means of independent samples with unknown variances. Our assumption is that: Sample of graduated grade from schools which is in Hanoi and Lang Son city are taken randomly and independently. Population of graduated grade of students is normally distributed Population variances of graduated grade are unknown but assumed equal So denote like that: 1: the mean of graduated grade from schools in Hanoi city 2: the mean of graduated grade from schools in Lang Son city Also, we can use the two tail test as follow: Ho : 1 = 2 Test the hypothesis: { H1 : 1 2 We can use two sample t test by Megastat to calculate p value to compare with to know whether population means of graduated grade between Hanoi city and Lang Son city are different or not. The statistics in different columns: From Hanoi and From Lang Son ( as above ) Assumed: equal variances Confidence level = 1- = 1-0.5 = 0.95 Test mean = 0 (1 - 2 = 0) Alternative : not equal MegaStat result for two sample t test.

Hypothesis Test: Independent Groups (t-test, pooled variance) From Hanoi 36.600 7.608 20 From Lng 30.370 mean 9.306 std. dev. 20 n 38 df 9

6.2300 72.2379 8.4993 2.6877 0 2.32 .0259 0.7890 11.6710 5.4410

difference (From Hanoi - From Lng Sn) pooled variance pooled std. dev. standard error of difference hypothesized difference t p-value (two-tailed) confidence interval 95.% lower confidence interval 95.% upper margin of error

The P value = 0.0259 < = 0.05 Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis that 1 - 2 = 0. This means that we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Thus, we conclude that there is substantial evidence to conclude that the average of the graduated scores from Hanoi city and Lang Son city is different. This can be easy to understand because Students in Hanoi are more constantly concerned with the education issue and moreover, they have higher standard of living that allow them to pay more attention to studying. In contrast, student in Lang Son not only have to take care of their studying but also their house works, and their family. This problem here show that the concern for the education and the the education system for 2 areas is different which mean some actions need to take to address this problem. Question 6: Compare the proportion of the graduated students in schools which are located in Hanoi and Lang Son City From the data table that already given below, in each school we can determine the proportion of graduated students of schools which are located in Hanoi city and Lang Son city as follows:

Descriptive statistics From Lang count mean Descriptive statistics sum count mean sum Son 20 49.05 981.00 From 10 Hanoi 20 78.60 1,572.00

From Hanoi 90/100 98/100 95/100 92/100 91/100 96/100 88/100 89/100 85/100 50/100 79/100 50/100 84/100 81/100 79/100 73/100 49/100 76/100 48/100 79/100

From Lang Son 55/100 57/100 58/100 57/100 42/100 35/100 47/100 59/100 68/100 27/100 19/100 15/100 45/100 67/100 89/100 24/100 79/100 47/100 35/100 56/100 we can have the statistic from sample like this in Hanoi : X=1570, n=2000 in Lang Son : X= 981, n=2000 To know whether the population proportion of graduated students between schools which are located in Hanoi city and Lang Son city are difference or not, we can use hypothesis population samples proportion. Our assumption is that: Sample of graduated students from schools which is in Hanoi and Lang Son city are taken randomly and independently. testing with in the of case of proportion independent population

unknown

Population of graduated students is normally distributed Population proportion of graduated students is unknown So denote like that: P1: the mean of graduated grade from schools in Hanoi city P2: the mean of graduated grade from schools in Lang Son city Also, we can use the two tail test as follow: Ho : P1 = P2 Test the hypothesis: { H1 : P1 P2 We can use two sample z test by Megastat to calculate the z value to compare with to know whether population proportion of graduated students between Hanoi city and Lang Son city are different or not. The statistics in different columns: From Hanoi and From Lang Son ( as above ) Confidence level = 1- = 1-0.5 = 0.95 11

Test mean = 0 (P1 - P2 = 0) Alternative : not equal MegaStat result for two sample z test.

Hypothesis test for two independent proportions p1 p2 pc 0.785 0.4905 0.6378 p (as 1570/2000 981/2000 2551/4000 p (as 1570. 981. 2551. X 2000 2000 4000 n 0.2945 0. 0.0152 19.38 0.00E+00 difference hypothesized difference std. error z p-value (two-

0.2661 confidence interval 95.% 0.3229 confidence interval 95.% 0.0284 margin of error With 19.38 > z/2 = 1.96. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis that P1 - P2= 0. This means that we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Thus, we conclude that there is substantial evidence to conclude that the number of

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