EU JHA Diplomacy - Den Hague 2004

European JHA Diplomacy
by ANIS H. BAJREKTAREVIC
CONSTRUCTING WORLD ORDERS SGIR Conference, Den Haag 09 11 September 2004 New World Security and the Role of Europe
Prologue: Of Paradise and Confrontational Nostalgia

Four men leading one man bound One man whom the four men hound
One man counted bound and led One man whom the four men dread Stone Sleeper, Mak Dizdar
European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004
Summary
Intro: the EU JHA
Perceptions & Perception Index

Presentation
of the Survey
Policy Proposals (tentative)
EU JHA State of Affairs
Process/es
Integration: Centripetal and Centrifugal forces

between the Brussels enlightening despotism and the MS residing fears

The IGC breakthrough Ratification of Constitution The EU Enlargement and (promotion of) New Neighborhood policy
(from Morocco to Russia and partnerships beyond)
Transnational challenges
EU as a strong partner of single voice within and beyond its borders

Human and Environmental disaster management (incl. asylum) Transnational Organized Crime (incl. laundering, corruption, etc.) (trafficking in and smuggling of) drugs, humans, arms; E-crimes, etc. International terrorism (incl. ABC particles proliferation)
Comprehensive Terrorism Survey

Survey span: Mid May Mid June 2004
Records of 300 persons asked:

202 Students from Austria:
Females: 132 ; EU 15:
Males: 70 44
98 Students from elsewhere:
(France 9; Germany 6; Spain 6; Finland 6; Sweden 5; Italy 4; UK 3; Belgium 2; Portugal 1; Denmark 1; the Netherlands 1)
New EU 10:
Non-EU Europeans:
17
11
(Poland 5; Slovakia 3; Czech R. 2; Slovenia 2; Hungary 1; Latvia 1; Cyprus 1; Estonia 1; Malta 1)
(Swiss 3; Norway 2; Turkey 2; Ukraine 2; Croatia 1; Bulgaria 1)
Non-Europeans:
26
(Canada 6; US 5; Russia 3; Australia 2; Mexico 1; India 1; Pakistan 1; New Zealand 1; South Africa 1; China 1; Morocco 1; S. Korea 1; Chile 1; Malaysia 1)
Comprehensive Terrorism Survey
Composition of 300 persons asked:
Gender

Female: Male: Below 20: Between 20 35: Between 35 60: Over 60: Studying: Working: Retired/Other:
61,oo% 39,oo% 15,67% 81,oo% o3,oo% o0,33% 89,oo% o9,67% o1,33%
Age

Occupancy
Q1: I associate terrorism with the Middle East.
60,00%
Disagree: 51,00%
50,00%
Agree: 43,33%
c
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Don't Know: 5,67%

Sum A Sum B Sum C
0,00%
Q1: I associate terrorism with the Middle East.
EU 15

Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: Agree: Disagree: Dont Know:
44% 50% o6% 59% 41% oo% 36% 46% 18% 31% 65% o4%
10 New EU Members

Non EU Europeans
Non Europeans
Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004
Q2: I associate terrorism with Muslims.

70,00%
Disagree: 62,33%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
Agree: 32,00%
30,00%
20,00%
10,00%
Don't Know: 5,67%
0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C
Q2: I associate terrorism with Muslims.
EU 15

32% 61% o7% 41% 53% o6% 45% 55% oo% 19% 81% oo%
10 New EU Members

Non EU Europeans
Non Europeans
Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004
To understand Muslims and their interaction with the rest of the world it is essential to differentiate between Islamic fundamentalism and extremism. Yevgeny PRIMAKOV
Q5: Islam is religion of peace. Using Islam as a way to justify terrorism is an abuse of the faith.
80,00%
A gr e e : 7 3 , 0 0 %
70,00%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
D i sa gr e e : 11, 3 3 %
20,00%
D on' t K now: 15 , 6 7 %
10 , 0 0 %
In a properly organized society like ours, nobody has any opportunity for being noble or heroic. Aldous HUXLEY
Q6: The absence of economic opportunities and political freedoms in Muslim countries drives people toward violent alternatives including the Al Qaeda-style terrorism.
70,00%
A gr e e : 5 7 , 6 7 %
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
D i s a gr e e : 2 9 , 3 3 %
30,00%
D on't K now : 1 3 , 0 0 %
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q3: I associate ANY terrorism with a lack of political alternative and economic prospects, or with the oppression by central authorities.
60,00%
Agr ee: 55, 00%
50,00%
40,00%
c Di sagr ee: 34, 67%
30,00%
20,00%
Don't Know: 10, 33%

10 , 0 0 %
Q4: Terrorists operate most effectively if they have the tacit support of the populations around them.
70,00%
Agree: 66,67%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Disagree: 21,33%
Don't Know: 12,00%
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q11: The temporary suspension of human rights is justified in combating terrorism.

70,00%
Di sagr ee: 66, 67%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
Agr ee: 17, 33%
Don't Know: 16, 00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q12: Law-enforcement community should be allowed to use physical coercion to obtain infos on imminent terrorist threats.
70,00%
Di sagr ee: 61, 00%

60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Agr ee: 20, 33%

20,00%
Don't Know: 18, 67%
10 , 0 0 %
Q13: The suspension of legal rights is acceptable in the fight against terrorism.
80,00%
Disagree: 68,33%
70,00% 60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Agree: 22,67%
20,00%
Don't Know: 9,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q14: Apprehension and detention of persons suspected of support for terrorism is tolerable, even if there is no credible evidence of their involvement.
80,00%
Disagree: 69,67%
70,00% 60,00% c 50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Don't Know: 14,33% Agree: 16,00%
20,00%
10,00%
Q15: Foreign state or non-state entities engaged in or supporting terrorism should be subject to sanctions.
80,00%
Agr ee: 71, 67%

70,00%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
Di sagr ee: 13, 67%
Don't Know: 14, 67%
10 , 0 0 %
Q16: Foreign state or non-state entities engaged in or supporting terrorism should be subjected to pre-emptive military intervention.
60,00%
Di sa gr e e : 5 4 , 3 3 %
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Agr e e : 2 5 , 6 7 % Don' t Know: 2 0 , 0 0 %
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q20: Counter-terrorism works best if it operates with the rule of law (balanc-ing security and civil liberties).
70,00%
A g ree: 6 5,0 0 %
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
D isag ree: 13 ,0 0 %
D o n' t Kno w: 2 2 ,0 0 %
20,00%
10,00%
Q25: The death penalty for convicted terrorists is appropriate.

Disagree: 65,67%
70,00%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Agree: 25,00% Don't Know: 9,33%
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q25: The death penalty for convicted terrorists is appropriate.
EU 15

18% 68% 14% 59% 35% 06% 18% 73% 09%
10 New EU Members

Non EU Europeans

Non Europeans
Agree: Disagree: European JHA Diplomacy Dont Know: Anis 2004
35% 57% 08%
Q7: Domestic terrorism is the greatest threat facing Europe.

80,00%
Disa gr e e : 6 9 ,0 0 %
70,00%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Don' t Know: 18 ,0 0 %
20,00%
Agr e e : 13 ,0 0 %
10 , 0 0 %
Q8: Trans-national terrorism is the greatest threat facing Europe.

60,00%
50,00%
Agree: 48,33%
40,00%
Disagree: 33,67%
30,00%
20,00%
Don't Know: 18,00%
10,00%
Q9: Issue of terrorism is over-emphasized. Job security social welfare (e.g. pension reform) and environmental degradation are the biggest challenges Europe is facing.
60,00%
Agree: 55,6 7%
50,00%
40,00%
Disagree: 3 1,0 0 %
30,00%
20,00%
Don't Know: 13 ,3 3 %
10 , 0 0 %
Q10: The EU enlargement, EU constitution and institutional reform are the biggest Europes challenges.
60,00%
Agr ee: 53, 33%

50,00%
40,00%
Di sagr ee: 30, 00%

30,00%
20,00%
Don't Know: 16, 67%
10 , 0 0 %
Q27: Europe is to face more attacks similar to the Madrid 3/11 bombing.
70,00%
Agree: 60,33%
60,00% 50,00%
40,00%
Don't Know: 28,33% Disagree: 11,33%
30,00%
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q27: Europe is to face more attacks similar to the Madrid 3/11 bombing.
EU 15
Agree: Disagree: Dont Know:
54% 05% 41%
10 New EU Members


88% 00% 12%

64% 18% 18% 42% 12% 46%
Non EU Europeans

Non Europeans
Agree: Disagree: European Dont Know: JHA Diplomacy
Anis 2004
Q28: Several of the suspects held in connection with the Madrid bombing are the 3rd nationals legally residing in the EU for years. We should stop further immigration to EU. Disagree: 73,67%
80,00%
70,00% 60,00%
50,00% 40,00%
30,00% 20,00%
Agree: 10,00%
Sum A Sum B
Don't Know: 16,33%
10 , 0 0 % 0,00% Sum C
Q29: Immigration becomes the EU security problem.

Disagree: 55,33%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
Agree: 29,67%
30,00%
20,00%
Don't Know: 15,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q29: Immigration becomes the EU security problem.
EU 15

Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: Agree: Disagree: Dont Know:

Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: Agree: Disagree: Dont Know:
29% 58% 13% 35% 59% o6%

55% 27% 18% 19% 38% 43%
10 New EU Members
Non EU Europeans

Non Europeans

Q30: We shall only stop immigrants from Muslim countries and let other immigrants in.
10 0 , 0 0 % 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00%
Disagree: 89,33%
50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10 , 0 0 % 0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C
Agree: 4,67%
Don't Know: 6,00%
We are becoming ever more diverse and multiethnic in Europe, having become a magnet for immigration ourselves where such flows now largely sustain our Q31: Europe should keep immigration unrestricted. Whatsoever price population growth.prosperity heavily depends on immigration.flows of new Put simply, we need these is, the EU people to our shores, both demographically and financially. Romano PRODI
60,00%
Disagree: 53,33%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Agree: 23,00%
Don't Know: 23,67%
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q32: Temporary suspension of legal rights for immigrants would improve the EU security.
80,00%
D i sa gr e e : 7 5 , 0 0 %
70,00%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00% 30,00%
20,00%
D on' t K now: 14 , 6 7 % A gr e e : 10 , 3 3 %
10,00%
Q33: Number of immigrants in Europe remain on the margins of society without ever being offered a real perspective to become part of society.
70,00%
Disagree: 65,33%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Agree: 19,33%
20,00%
Don't Know: 15,33%
10 , 0 0 %
Q34: Europe does quite much for immigrants. They should pay more respect and loyalty to countries of their residence.
60,00%
Agree: 49,67%
50,00% 40,00%
30,00%
Disagree: 27,67%
Don't Know: 22,67%
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q38: September/11 and the w ar on terrorism as w ell as the Madrid bombing, have created unfavorable climate for many Muslims in Europe and have led to misperceptions and stereotyping. This intensifies isolation among Muslim immigrants.
90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00%
A gr e e : 8 5 , 0 0 %
D i sa gr e e : 8 , 0 0 %
10,00% 0,00% Sum A Sum B
D on' t K now: 7 , 0 0 %
Sum C
Q35: Economically non-integrated (unemployed) and socially isolated immigrants may turn into recruiting ground for terrorists.
60,00%
Agree: 55,33%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Disagree: 27,00%
20,00%
Don't Know: 17,67%
10 , 0 0 %
Q36: Improved (EU) integration policies at home and an understanding of the difficulties many immigrants face would reduce European societal conflicts and consequently improve the overall European security standing.
90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10 , 0 0 % 0,00%
A gree: 78 ,0 0 %
D on't Know: 15,3 3 % D isagree: 6 ,6 7%

Sum A Sum B Sum C
Q48: To reduce the terrorist threats, the member countries should delegate more JHA powers to the EU institutions.
45,00%
Agree: 42,00%
40,00%
Don't Know: 36,00%
35,00%
30,00%
25,00%
Disagree: 22,00%
20,00%
15 , 0 0 %
10 , 0 0 %
5,00%
Lets be clear: in a globalized world the EU guarantees cultural diversity. To those critics who complain that Member States are losing sovereignty, I fell like saying: take your sovereignty & try seeing member you can do with it. what countries should Q49: When addressing terrorism, the EU Antonio VITORINO keep their JHA prerogatives strictly on national level.
60,00%
Disagree: 52,67% Don't Know: 32,67%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
Agree: 14,67%
10 , 0 0 %
Q45: The 10 new EU members will not vote as an eastern block in the Union. Rather, they will join coalitions of the willing which cut across the old and new member-states.
60,00%
Agree: 51,00% Don't Know: 31,00% Disagree: 18,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q45: The 10 new EU members will not vote as an Eblock.
EU 15

Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: Agree: Disagree: Dont Know:
52% 20% 28% 58% 18% 24% 27% 18% 55% 42% oo% 58%
10 New EU Members

Non EU Europeans

Non Europeans
Q40: Europe should fully side with the US in global fight against terrorism.
90,00%
Disagree: 78,33%
80,00%
70,00%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
Agree: 10,67%
Don't Know: 11,00%
10 , 0 0 %
Q42: Europe should develop its own policy and act alone in tackling the terrorism.
50,00%
Disagree: 47,33% Agree: 35,67% Don't Know: 17,00%
45,00% 40,00%
35,00% 30,00%
25,00% 20,00%
15 , 0 0 % 10 , 0 0 %
5,00% 0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C
On Kagans constraining egalitarian quality of Intl. Law

Q44: IOs and international law is a trap set by weaker nations to constrain (and hinder) big player/s.
70,00%
60,00%
Disagree: 57,67%
50,00%
40,00%
Don't Know: 30,67%
30,00%
20,00%
Agree: 11,67%
10,00%
On Brzezinskis chessboard/s and global leadership

Q41: Permanent alliances require too many compromises therefore temporary coalitions of the will are better for Foreign Policy actions.
36,00%
35,00%
Agree: 34,67%
Don't Know: 35,00%
34,00%
33,00%
32,00%
3 1, 0 0 %
Disagree: 30,33%
30,00%
29,00%
Europe is a partner with the legitimacy that comes through the collective action of a union of 25 sovereign states. Javier SOLANA
Q43: Europe should develop its own policy in conformity with the Intl. law and act through the UN system in tackling terrorism.
80,00%
Agree: 73,00%
70,00%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
Disagree: 14,33%
Don't Know: 12,67%
10 , 0 0 %
On Fukuyamas defensive modernization

Q51: The War on terrorism is the urgent global priority.
70,00%
Disagree: 59,33%
60,00% 50,00%
40,00%
Agree: 29,00%
30,00% 20,00%
Don't Know: 11,67%
10 , 0 0 %
Q52: Eradication of poverty, of diseases, of environmental degradation, the ICC functioning, are the urgent global priorities.
90,00%
Agr e e : 8 3 , 0 0 %
80,00%
70,00%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
Di sa gr e e : 7 , 3 3 %
10 , 0 0 % 0,00% Sum A Sum B
Don' t Know: 9 , 6 7 %
Sum C
On Kissingers confrontational nostalgia

Q46: The war on terrorism is a (another form of) power struggle for domination.
70,00%
Agree: 63,33%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Disagree: 19,33%
20,00% 10 , 0 0 %
Don't Know: 17,33%
Q53: The real clash of civilizations is taking place within:

Middle East Africa Asia Russia EU Washington (current administration)
o59; o26; o20; o19; o27; 110;
Dont know
o39.
On Huntingtons clashes
Q54: There is no clash of civilizations. The only clash is (a conflict) of interests.
45,00%
40,00%
Agree: 38,33%
Disagree: 38,67% Don't Know: 23,00%
35,00%
30,00%
25,00%
20,00%
15 , 0 0 %
10 , 0 0 %
5,00%
America did not change on September 11. It only became more itself. Robert KAGAN
Q55: The US has better standing of its global moral and political authority now than it was before 9/11.
90,00%
Disagree: 83,67%
80,00%
70,00%
60,00%
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
Agree: 7,33%
Sum A Sum B
Don't Know: 9,00%

Sum C
10 , 0 0 %
0,00%
The question of legitimization goes beyond the capabilities of the US. Joscha FISCHER
Q56: The war on terror so far isolated;
the US itself: 65,33%
70, 00%
60, 00%
50, 00%
40, 00%
30, 00%
20, 00%
the US enemies: 14,00%
Don't Know : 20,67%
10, 00%
0, 00% Sum A Sum B Sum C
Q56: The war on terror so far isolated;
EU 15

US enemies: US itself: Dont Know: US enemies: US itself: Dont Know:
11% 57% 32% 36% 35% 29%
10 New EU Members
Non EU Europeans

US enemies: US itself: Dont Know: US enemies: US itself: Dont Know:
o9% 64% 27% 19% 58% 23%
Non Europeans
Q58: The US proclaimed war on terror serves the Europes security too.
60,00%
Disagree: 49,67%
50,00% 40,00%
Agree: 30,67%
30,00%
Don't Know: 19,67%
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
On Fergusons liberal empire

Q59: The US proclaimed war on terror is feared by Europe more than it is accepted.
70,00%
Agree: 60,33%
60,00% 50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
Don't Know: 25,33% Disagree: 14,33%
20,00%
10 , 0 0 %
On Kagans irritating irrelevancy of Europe

Q50: The 10 new EU members see the US as the guarantor of their security, and they fear Franco-German hegemony in Europe more than American power in the world.
45,00% 40,00% 35,00% 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C
Disagree: 39,00%
Don't Know: 37,67%
Agree: 23,33%
Q50: The 10 new EU members see the US as the guarantor of their security, and they fear Franco-German hegemony in Europe more than American power in the world.
10 New EU Members
52% 24% 24%
Non EU Europeans

37% 36% 27%
Non Europeans
27% 19% 54%

On phenomenon:
Terrorism
Domestic vs. Transnational/Trans-continental

(Terrorism is a form, not a substance. Consequently; Terrorism itself is not an ideology per se, but a method of political action.)

Aim: Claim:
Political Territorial or/and Ideology change
Dangerous linkages and increasing synergies

III nationals in the EU: emotionally homeless and politically helpless
Operative and Policy issues:
Technical approach
Political approach:

On close proximities of todays foreign and domestic policy issues:
Consolidation of the EU (Foreign) Policy-making is sine qua non to the comprehensive EU JHA response to terrorism and other international threats more stake for the JHA in Foreign policy objectives making; Coupling the democracy promotion and human development with our coordinated policies; The EU JHA institution building and the Constitution ratification gaining the momentum.
Thanking you for your attention

Dialog inevitably involves questions. Real help comes only with understanding, and understanding only comes with clarity. The fight against terrorism does not justify or excuse the violation of human rights. Rather, it is strengthened by a demonstrable respect for the human rights of all citizens The moment you behave like the terrorists, you undermine your moral authority and augment the number of citizens who either actively or passively support them.
Chris PATTEN, the EU Commissioner for ER Euro Parliament Plenary, Strasbourg 15 IX 04

EU JHA Diplomacy - Den Hague 2004

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European JHA Diplomacy

Prologue: Of Paradise and Confrontational Nostalgia

Intro: the EU JHA

Perceptions & Perception Index

Policy Proposals (tentative)

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

EU JHA State of Affairs

Integration: Centripetal and Centrifugal forces

EU as a strong partner of single voice within and beyond its borders

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Comprehensive Terrorism Survey

Records of 300 persons asked:

202 Students from Austria:

Females: 132 ; EU 15:

98 Students from elsewhere:

(Poland 5; Slovakia 3; Czech R. 2; Slovenia 2; Hungary 1; Latvia 1; Cyprus 1; Estonia 1; Malta 1)

(Swiss 3; Norway 2; Turkey 2; Ukraine 2; Croatia 1; Bulgaria 1)

Comprehensive Terrorism Survey

Composition of 300 persons asked:

61,oo% 39,oo% 15,67% 81,oo% o3,oo% o0,33% 89,oo% o9,67% o1,33%

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Q1: I associate terrorism with the Middle East.

Don't Know: 5,67%

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Q1: I associate terrorism with the Middle East.

Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Q2: I associate terrorism with Muslims.

Don't Know: 5,67%

0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Q2: I associate terrorism with Muslims.

Agree: Disagree: Dont Know: European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Agr ee: 55, 00%

c Di sagr ee: 34, 67%

Don't Know: 10, 33%

0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Don't Know: 12,00%

0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Q11: The temporary suspension of human rights is justified in combating terrorism.

Di sagr ee: 66, 67%

Agr ee: 17, 33%

Don't Know: 16, 00%

0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Di sagr ee: 61, 00%

Agr ee: 20, 33%

Don't Know: 18, 67%

0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Don't Know: 9,00%

0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Don't Know: 14,33% Agree: 16,00%

0,00% Sum A Sum B Sum C

European JHA Diplomacy Anis 2004

Agr ee: 71, 67%

Di sagr ee: 13, 67%