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Table of Contents
1. 1.1. 2. 3. 3.1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.1. 7.2. 7.3. 7.4. 8. 8.1. 8.2. 8.3. 8.3.1. 8.3.2. 8.4. 8.4.1. 8.4.2. 8.4.3. 8.5. 8.5.1. 8.6. 8.6.1. 8.7. 8.8. Game theory ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Prisoner's dilemma ........................................................................................................................... 3 Baseball ................................................................................................................................................. 3 Bridge .................................................................................................................................................... 3 ACBL membership ............................................................................................................................. 3 Thoroughbred racing ............................................................................................................................ 3 Blackjack................................................................................................................................................ 3 Poker ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 Rock-Paper-Scissor ................................................................................................................................ 3 Hand Game ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Intransitive Dice ................................................................................................................................ 4 Intransitivity of any relationship in real life ...................................................................................... 4 Game Model after Rock-Paper-Scissor ............................................................................................. 4 Real Life Models .................................................................................................................................... 6 Lizard Mating Model after rock-paper-scissor .................................................................................. 6 Cycle of Boom and Bust model ......................................................................................................... 6 Free Solo Climb Model ...................................................................................................................... 7 Motivation..................................................................................................................................... 7 Practitioners .................................................................................................................................. 7 Sky-Express Discount-Fare Interstate Carrier ................................................................................... 9 Factors........................................................................................................................................... 9 Virginia low-fare bus flip killed 4 - June 1, 2011 ........................................................................... 9 New York Tour Bus Crash Kills 14 in New York March 13, 2011 .............................................. 11 Sanderson Farmers ......................................................................................................................... 13 Factors......................................................................................................................................... 13 Farmers Mac ................................................................................................................................... 13 Factors......................................................................................................................................... 13 Model of Uniqueness ...................................................................................................................... 14 Model of Monte Carlo Method ....................................................................................................... 14 Page 1 of 15

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8.9. 8.9.1. 8.9.2. 8.9.3. 8.9.4. 8.9.5. 8.10. 8.10.1. Model of Dominant Factor.............................................................................................................. 14 Free Solo Climb ........................................................................................................................... 14 Baseball ....................................................................................................................................... 14 Radian RDN .............................................................................................................................. 15 Pilgrim Pride ................................................................................................................................ 15 Yellow-Roadway - YRCW ............................................................................................................. 15 TBD-2 ........................................................................................................................................... 15 TBD-3-1 ....................................................................................................................................... 15

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1. Game theory 1.1.

Age 1 and up

Prisoner's dilemma

2. Baseball
Age 5 and up

3. Bridge 3.1.
Age 6 and up

ACBL membership

4. Thoroughbred racing
Age 5 and up

5. Blackjack
Age 3 and up

6. Poker
Age 6 and up

7. Rock-Paper-Scissor 7.1. Hand Game

The rock-paper-scissors rules are an example of an intransitive competition, where the participants cannot be simply ordered from best to worst. When placed in pairs, winners and losers emerge: rock beats scissors, paper beats rock, and scissors beat paper. But when all three strategies compete, an impasse is reached where no one element is the undisputed winner.

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7.2. 7.3.

Intransitive Dice Intransitivity of any relationship in real life

Any relationship in life of the nature of adaptive complex system which includes more than three factors, they are intransitive.

7.4.
Age 5 - 16

Game Model after Rock-Paper-Scissor

A schematic of a "rock-paper-scissors tournament" where species (represented by colored circles) are dominant (represented by arrow direction) over some, but not all, of their competitors. (Credit: Stefano Allesina, U. Chicago) In nature, this kind of rock-paper-scissors relationship has been observed for three-species groups of bacteria and lizards. But scientists had not yet studied how more complex intransitive relationships with more than three playersthink rock-paper-scissors-dynamite, and beyond couldmodel the more complex ecosystems. No one had pushed it to the limit and said, instead of three species, what happens if you have 4,000? Nobody knew how, Allesina says. What we were able to do is build the mathematical framework in which you can find out what will happen with any number of species.

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[PLANS] June 7, 2011 Allesina and co-author Jonathan Levine, professor of ecology, evolution & marine biology at University of California, Santa Barbara, combined the advanced mathematics of game theory, graph theory, and dynamical systems to simulate the outcome when different numbers of species compete for various amounts of limiting factors with variable success, for example, a group of tree species competing for multiple resources such as nitrogen, phosphorus, light, and water. When more limiting factors are added to the model, the amount of biodiversity quickly increases as a tournament of rock-paper-scissors matches develops between species, eliminating some weak players but maintaining a stable balance between multiple survivors. What we put together shows that when you allow species to compete for multiple resources, and allow different resources to determine which species win, you end up with a complex tournament that allows numerous species to coexist because of the multiple rock-paper-scissors games embedded within, Levine says. In some models, where each species advantage in one limiting factor is coupled to a disadvantage on another, a mere two limiting factors is capable of producing maximal biodiversitywhich stabilizes at half the number of species originally put into the model, no matter how large. It basically says theres no saturation, Allesina says. If you have this tradeoff and have two factors, you can have infinite species. With simple rules, you can create remarkable diversity. The model also produced a strange result: when the limiting factors are uniformly distributed, the total number of species that survive is always an odd number. Adjusting the models parameters to more closely model the uneven distribution of resources in nature removed this intriguing quirk. The models realism was tested successfully by reverse-engineering a network of species relationships from field data on populations of tropical forest trees and marine invertebrates. Next, the researchers will test whether the model can successfully predict the population dynamics of an ecosystem. In the meantime, the rock-paper-scissors model proposes new ideas about the stability of ecosystemsor the dramatic consequences when only one species in the system is removed. The fact that many species co-exist could depend on the rare species, which are more likely to go extinct by themselves. If they are closing the loop, then they really have a key role, because they are the only ones keeping the system from collapsing, Allesina says. If youre playing rock-paper-scissors and you lose rock, youre going to end up with only scissors in the system, Levine says. In a more complex system, theres an immediate cascade that extends to a very large number of species.

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8. Real Life Models 8.1.

Age 10 and up

Lizard Mating Model after rock-paper-scissor

An unusual game is being played out in the Coast Range of California. Three alternative male strategies are locked in an ecological "perpetual motion machine" from which there appears little escape. As in the rock-paper-scissors game where rock beats scissors, paper beats rock, and scissors beats paper, three morphs of lizards cycle from the ultra-dominant polygynous orangethroated males, which best the more monogamous mate guarding blues; the oranges are in turn bested by the sneaker strategy of yellow-throated males, and the sneaker strategy of yellows is in turn bested by the mate guarding strategy of blue-throated males. Each strategy in this game has a
strength and a weakness, and there is the evolutionary rub that keeps the wheels spinning. See the

Thus, each strategy has strength and a weakness and there are strong asymetries in contests between morphs. Trespassing yellows, with their female mimcry, can fool oranges. However, trespassing yellows are hunted down by blue males and attacked. While oranges with their high testosterone and high stamina can handily defeat blues, they are susceptible to the charms of yellows. In contrast, contests between like morphs (e.g., blue vs blue, orange vs orange or yellow vs yellow) are usually more symmetric. Orange throated males (take by force, polygamous, occupy large territory, best blue throated males for their partners) Blue throated males (cooperate, monogamous, occupy small territory, best yellow throated males guarding their partners) Yellow throated males (take by deception, polygamous, no territory but wander in large areas, sneaky and mate whenever get a chance) The important issue is how to assign a scoring system to the three mating strategies, and their associated probabilities namely the decision tree

8.2.

Cycle of Boom and Bust model

The proportion of each male type in a population is similar in the long run, but fluctuates widely in the short term. For periods of 45 years, one strategy predominates, after which it declines in
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[PLANS] June 7, 2011 frequency as the strategy that manages to exploit its weakness increases. This corresponds to the stable pattern of the game in the replicator dynamics where the dynamical system follows closed orbits around the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium

8.3.

Free Solo Climb Model

Free solo climbing, also known as free soloing, is a form of free climbing where the climber (the free soloist) forgoes ropes, harnesses and other protective gear while ascending and relies only on his or her physical strength, climbing ability, and psychological fortitude to avoid a fatal fall. Free solo climbing should not be confused with general free climbing, in which gear is typically used for safety in case of a fall, but not to assist the climb.

8.3.1. Motivation
Reasons for free soloing given by high-profile climbers include the simplicity and speed with which one can climb, for example (although it was not a free solo climb) Alex Honnold's five hours and 49 minutes ascent of the 3,000 ft. Nose of El Capitan, a route normally demanding two to four days.[1] Other reasons given are the intense concentration required and the adrenaline rush. The practice is mostly confined to routes familiar to the climber and whose difficulty lies well within the climber's abilities. However, inherent risks such as loose rocks or sudden change in weather are always present. Some high-profile climbers, including John Bachar and Derek Hersey have been killed this way. Hersey died on Sentinel Rock in 1993. The challenge of free soloing single pitch routes is mainly in the mental difficulty for the climbers of staying focused on what they are doing. Free soloing is usually not meant to be hard in a physical sense. That said, however, unpredictable weather and rock conditions can create grave hazards for climbers on longer routes. Hersey, though a master of solo climbing's physical and mental demands, is believed to have encountered rain during his fatal solo ascent of the 1000-meter Sentinel Rock.[2]

8.3.2. Practitioners
The sport has produced a number of well-known practitioners, made famous by remarkable photos of a climber totally alone and unprotected on sheer cliffs. One of the most famous is Frenchman Alain Robert ("spiderman"), who has scaled dozens of skyscrapers around the world a sport known as buildering (not to be confused with bouldering) and many rock walls, without using any safety equipment. Some of the driving forces in rock climbing and free soloing from 1900 to today: Hansjrg Auer, John Bachar, Henry Barber, Peter Croft, Steph Davis, Derek Hersey, Alexander Huber, Dan Osman, Dave MacLeod, Dean Potter, Alex Honnold, Andreas Proft , Ueli Steck, Paul Preuss, Kevin Jorgenson, Patrick Edlinger, Michael Reardon, Alain Robert, Catherine Destivelle, Maurizio "Manolo" Zanolla, and Renaldo Clarke.

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[PLANS] June 7, 2011 Stanford grad student dies in Yosemite fall Friday afternoon
Chris Chan plunges 400 feet off rock wall while free soloing
Photos

Stanford University student and climbing enthusiast Christina "Chris" Chan died Friday afternoon after falling from the north face of Eichorn Peak in Yosemite during a "free soloing" climb about 400 feet up sheer rock wall. Chan, a fourth-year graduate student in political science, was 2008 copresident of the Stanford Alpine Club, through which Chan shared her passion for climbing with others, according to the club's website. Her climbing partner, Jim Castelaz, also of Stanford, saw her falling and quickly descended, hoping against all odds that she was still alive, according to a posting he made on Chan's memorial Facebook page. He said he saw her falling: "I was in shock and horrified and helpless." Free soloing means climbing without a rope or safety protection, and is usually practiced only by the most skilled of climbers. Chan often spent weekends teaching beginning climbing, anchors, lead climbing and self-rescue. "There is no existence that I love more than the moments spent on steep granite faces. Multipitch trad (traditional) and big walls in Yosemite are my favorite," Chan wrote on her Stanford website. Chan's climbing accomplishments included soloing the Zodiac route of El Capitan in Yosemite (see images) and soloing the Prow and the Skull Queen routes of Washington Column in Yosemite. In his Facebook entry, Castelaz wrote: "It was windy and I was a bit cold, so then we decided to climb down. She led the way. "She was about 10 feet above where she would move onto the ledge that leads off the climb and I was maybe 20 feet above her when I heard something. I turned around and saw that she had come off the rock. "I don't know what happened or why she came off. I saw her falling. I was in shock and horrified and helpless." Chan's academic interests included environmental policy and politics in China. As an undergraduate at Harvard University she studied biochemical sciences. She later received a master's degree from Stanford in civil and environmental engineering. She recently was working toward
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[PLANS] June 7, 2011 a Ph.D. in political science, according to her Stanford website.

8.4.

Sky-Express Discount-Fare Interstate Carrier

8.4.1. Factors
Scale and market share (geographic coverage and frequency) Customer experience (safety, on-schedule, comfort level, price, New York to Charlotte oneway ticket is $30) Operating environment (Demographics, regulation overhead, gasoline, labor market etc) Competing strategies Greyhound, Brotherhood Bus (New York to Charlotte one-way ticket: Brotherhood Bus is $50, Greyhound is $82)

8.4.2. Virginia low-fare bus flip killed 4 - June 1, 2011

Once more, a low-fare bus driven by an apparently fatigued driver wound up in a horrific crash that took numerous lives. Once more, the company ran buses to and from New York - Chinatown, in particular - and had an abysmal safety record. Once more, federal and state transportation authorities failed to take aggressive action that likely would have prevented the tragedy.

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Rescue personnel at the scene of a bus accident that killed four in Virginia on Tuesday, June 1, 2011.

They vowed that they were going to get tough following the March crash of a speeding casino bus that flipped over on a Bronx highway and smashed into a pole, killing 15. They fell far short. The bus that overturned in Virginia on Tuesday, killing four and injuring 50, was owned by Sky Express, a carrier offering cheap rides between New York and other East Coast cities. Even a glance at the safety record makes clear that its buses should not have been on the road. In the last two years, the company racked up 46 violations for fatigued drivers, 17 for unsafe driving and 24 for irregularities in driver's licenses and medical certificates, problems with understanding English and inability to read road signs. There were so many red flags that in April the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration proposed an unsatisfactory safety rating - which would have idled all Sky Express vehicles. The company had 45 days to appeal. The agency denied the appeal May 13. But then it extended a final review period, permitting the buses to keep running until the crash took place. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said yesterday that the agency will no longer extend appeals periods - a step that would have saved lives.

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[PLANS] June 7, 2011 But far more is needed, as was proven in a series of surprise bus company inspections during two weeks in May. Three thousand checks turned up an eye-popping 450 buses and drivers so dangerous, they had to be taken out of service. Because the feds depend largely on state authorities to perform inspections, they must set rigorous inspection standards and make them consistently aggressive from state to state. The agency also needs the authority to shut down a bus company immediately when safety data show a clear and present danger. Shockingly, it cannot do so now. And there must be foolproof means of making sure an unscrupulous operator won't simply reopen under another name. Dangerous bus companies and drivers must be caught before they send heavy vehicles screaming down the highway - not after a tragic accident

8.4.3. New York Tour Bus Crash Kills 14 in New York March 13, 2011
The fatal gambling casino bus crash that claimed 14 lives in New York this morning now looks more likely to have been caused by its driver falling asleep rather than, as he told police, a tractor trailer hitting the bus from behind and triggering the chain reaction that caused the bus to flip and have its roof sliced off by a heavy sign support, officials said. According to officials, the driver of the tractor trailer says that the tour bus bus flew by him. It hit lane warning bumps and continued to swerve until it flipped, sources said. There was no evidence, officials said, of the truck having hit the bus. The accident happened at about 5:30 a.m. on the New England Thruway at the Hutchinson River Parkway in the Bronx.

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The bus was heading southbound when it flipped on its side. It then skidded into the support post for a large highway sign. The post sliced through the length of the bus at the passenger seat level, officials said. New York Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly said both the truck and the bus were moving at "a significant rate of speed," Shamel Bookard and Ashanti Jackson, friends of Oferdel Williams, the driver of the bus, described him as the kind of person who is likely ovewhelmed with sadness at what happened. "I'm sure he's greatly sorry for what did happen," Jackson told WABC-TV. They said Williams is known for his courage. "Years ago he ran into a burning building and saved a family, there was a girl, a grandmother in a wheelchair, he brought them out the fire," Bookard told WABC-TV. "Our -- and the entire city's -- prayers, thoughts and sympathies are with the victims, and their families and loved ones," said New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in a statement. "Our prayers and sympathies are with the victims of this terrible tragedy and their family and friends." The mayor said that the New York State Police is leading the investigation into the accident, and that city agencies have set up a Family Assistance Center to provide family members with information regarding their loved ones.
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[PLANS] June 7, 2011 A total of 32 people were on board. According to New York City Fire Department officials, five people were critically injured, two others suffered serious injuries and 11 suffered minor injuries. "People were saying, 'Oh my God. Oh my God,' holding their hands on their heads," limo driver Homer Martinez told The Associated Press about the carnage at the scene of the accident. "I saw people telling other people not to go there, 'You don't want to see this.'" New York firefighters and medics were quickly on the scene, supporting the bus by wood planks. "As we back through the bus we found more people pinned because of the stanchion," FDNY Chief of Department Edward Kilduff told the New York Daily News. "We had about seven or eight people pinned in the rear of the bus that we had to actually cut out by removing seats or cut a hole in the roof of the bus." Two nearby hospitals -- St. Barnabas Hospital and Jacobi Medical Center -- were used to treat the patients. The bus was en route from Mohegan Sun casino in Connecticut to lower Manhattan where it was ultimately bound for Chinatown. "Our heartfelt sympathy goes out to the families of all those involved in this morning's tragic bus accident in New York, " Mohegan Sun Chairman Bruce "Two Dogs" Bozsum and President Jeff Hartmann said in statement yesterday.

8.5.

Sanderson Farmers

8.5.1. Factors
Operating Environment (Broiler egg sets, Pullet placement, Retail grocery demand, Food service demand, Corn and soybean meal prices, Export market)

Internal (Low-cost provider, Strong balance sheet, Favorable product mix, Attractive growth profile, Attractive asset base, Strong record of organic growth) Competing strategies (Tyson food with the largest market share, Pilgrams Pride twice market size but with a lot of debt)

8.6.

Farmers Mac

8.6.1. Factors
Operating environment (Demographics, agriculture subsidy policies, interest rate) Congressional charter or GSE Page 13 of 15

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Internal (Farm and utility asset values, cash management) Competing strategies ( agricultural bank to some extent)

8.7.

Model of Uniqueness

A complex system or strategy will not be liked by all the eyes of the beholders, because it is of complex system and intransitive by nature. But it must have uniqueness that no other competing systems can easily copycat. This uniqueness ensures that it will have its own niche place However, the important thing is to assign a scoring system to the strategy and determine associated probabilities namely the decision tree. Obviously this must be done in the context of the full ecosystem with all competing strategies involved Singer Chou Hua-Jie has husky voice, creepy and broken stream are unique combination. This unique combination has its due followers Singer Fei Yu-Chin has clear voice, straightforward tone and vulgar jokes. This unique combination has its due followers Krispy Kreme soft, sweet donut and black coffee are unique combination. It has its lovers and haters

8.8.

Model of Monte Carlo Method

Quantify the winning odds of basic strategy in Black Jack game using Monte Carlo Method Quantify how viewers receive a new movie or new movie star in the movie by sampling people on the street to the theater, then survey them Quantify a business revenue by sampling peoples knowledge in that ecosystem The only way to quantify a complex system is through sampling. Monte Carlo, Sampling and Scuttle are the same thing

8.9.

Model of Dominant Factor

All factors are involved with all outcomes in an eco-system. Sometimes the eco-system is at a stage where a single factor becomes so dominant that it affects the probabilities of outcomes disproportionally.

8.9.1. Free Solo Climb

Gravitation force is the dominant factor for the outcome of ?

8.9.2. Baseball
Pitcher is the dominant factor

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8.9.3. Radian RDN

National hosing average price is the dominant factor during financial crisis.

8.9.4. Pilgrim Pride

Grain price and production-over-capacity become dominant factors

8.9.5. Yellow-Roadway - YRCW

Authoritative comments (speculation) is dominant factor after the restructure in Oct. 2011,

8.10.

TBD-2 TBD-3-1

8.10.1.

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