Model Facts

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Copyright 2001 by the Trustees of the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation.

Page 1

Model Facts

Page 2

Exhibit 1
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Summary of monthly sales: Actual for 2000 and Forecast for 2001
2000
(historical)

2001
(forecast)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

2,012,400
2,314,260
3,421,080
7,043,400
12,074,400
15,294,240
14,187,420
7,144,020
4,024,800
3,421,080
2,716,740
2,213,640

2,616,120
2,892,825
4,447,404
8,804,250
13,885,560
17,588,376
16,315,533
8,572,824
5,031,000
4,447,404
3,531,762
2,767,050

Year

75,867,480

90,900,108

Supporting Calculations for Exhibit 1

HISTORICAL CYCLE
FORECAST CYCLE

100
130

115
125

170
130

2000 (historical)

TOTAL
75,867,480 2,012,400 2,314,260 3,421,080

2001 (forecast)

90,900,108 2,616,120 2,892,825 4,447,404

GROSS UP RATIO

350
125

600
115

760
115

705
115

355
120

200
125

170
130

135
130

110
125

7,043,400 12,074,400 15,294,240 14,187,420 7,144,020 4,024,800 3,421,080 2,716,740 2,213,640

8,804,250 13,885,560 17,588,376 16,315,533 8,572,824 5,031,000 4,447,404 3,531,762 2,767,050

Exhibit 2
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Historical Annual Income Statements ( in Rupees)

Gross Sales
Excise Tax
Net Sales
Cost of Goods
Gross Profits
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Interest Expense
Profit Before Tax
Income Tax
Net Profit

1999

2000

2001

(Actual)

(Actual)

(Forecast)

64,487,358
9,673,104
54,814,254
44,496,277
10,317,978
3,497,305
769,103
910,048
5,141,521
1,542,456
3,599,065

75,867,480
11,380,122
64,487,358
53,865,911
10,621,447
4,828,721
908,608
1,240,066
3,644,052
1,093,216
2,550,837

90,900,108
13,635,016
77,265,092
66,993,380
10,271,712
5,454,006
1,073,731
1,835,620
1,908,355
572,506
1,335,848

Exhibit 3
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Historical Balance Sheets (in Rupees)
2000

2001

(Actual)

(Forecast)

Cash
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Total Current Assets
Gross PP&E
Accumulated Depreciation
Net PP&E
Total Assets

762,323
2,672,729
1,249,185
4,684,237
10,095,646
1,484,278
8,611,368
13,295,604

750,000
3,715,152
2,225,373
6,690,525
11,495,646
2,558,009
8,937,637
15,628,161

Accounts Payable
Notes to Bank (Deposits at Bank)
Accrued Taxes
Total Current Liabilities
Owners' Equity
Total Liabilities and Equity

759,535
684,102
0
1,443,637
11,851,967
13,295,604

1,157,298
3,463,701
(180,654)
4,440,345
11,187,816
15,628,161

EXHIBIT 8
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Monthly Forecast of Income Statements (in Rupees)
Pro Forma

Gross Sales
Excise Taxes
Net Sales
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Interest Expense (Income) (1)
Profit Before Taxes
Income Taxes
Net Profit

January

February

2,616,120
392,418
2,223,702
1,928,080
295,622
454,501
84,130
11,058
(254,068)
(76,220)
(177,847)

2,892,825
433,924
2,458,901
2,132,012
326,889
454,501
84,130
24,825
(236,566)
(70,970)
(165,596)

March
4,447,404
667,111
3,780,293
3,277,737
502,557
454,501
87,047
70,867
(109,858)
(32,957)
(76,900)

April
8,804,250
1,320,638
7,483,613
6,488,732
994,880
454,501
87,047
158,210
295,123
88,537
206,586

May

June

July

13,885,560
2,082,834
11,802,726
10,233,658
1,569,068
454,501
87,047
268,352
759,168
227,751
531,418

17,588,376
2,638,256
14,950,120
12,962,633
1,987,486
454,501
89,964
362,187
1,080,835
324,251
756,585

16,315,533
2,447,330
13,868,203
12,024,548
1,843,655
454,501
89,964
363,212
935,979
280,794
655,185

August
8,572,824
1,285,924
7,286,900
6,318,171
968,729
454,501
89,964
259,568
164,697
49,409
115,288

September
5,031,000
754,650
4,276,350
3,707,847
568,503
454,501
92,880
145,898
(124,776)
(37,433)
(87,343)

October
4,447,404
667,111
3,780,293
3,277,737
502,557
454,501
92,880
80,686
(125,510)
(37,653)
(87,857)

November
3,531,762
529,764
3,001,998
2,602,909
399,089
454,501
92,880
50,025
(198,317)
(59,495)
(138,822)

December The Year

2,767,050
415,058
2,351,993
2,039,316
312,677
454,501
95,797
40,731
(278,352)
(83,506)
(194,847)

(1) Interest expense = Notes Payable * 14.5%/12 months.

Forecasted Monthly Balance Sheets for 2001 (in Rupees)

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

750,000
2,773,349
2,308,135
5,831,484
8,527,237
14,358,721

750,000
3,291,542
5,850,125
9,891,667
8,443,107
18,334,774

750,000
5,012,144
11,855,841
17,617,985
8,706,060
26,324,045

750,000
10,301,737
17,637,315
28,689,052
8,619,013
37,308,065

750,000
17,997,155
19,666,227
38,413,382
8,531,966
46,945,348

750,000
24,748,757
14,469,652
39,968,409
8,792,002
48,760,411

750,000
25,697,603
6,815,272
33,262,875
8,702,038
41,964,914

750,000
17,191,189
3,883,970
21,825,159
8,612,075
30,437,233

750,000
9,003,739
2,950,257
12,703,996
8,869,194
21,573,190

750,000
6,295,049
1,854,837
8,899,886
8,776,314
17,676,200

750,000
5,029,249
1,639,892
7,419,142
8,683,434
16,102,575

750,000
3,715,152
2,225,373
6,690,525
8,937,637
15,628,161

4,010,818
2,962,622
(147,190)
6,826,250
11,508,524
18,334,774

6,805,539
8,767,030
(180,148)
15,392,421
10,931,623
26,324,045

8,842,088
17,419,379
(91,611)
26,169,856
11,138,209
37,308,065

8,142,024
26,997,556
136,140
35,275,720
11,669,627
46,945,348

3,883,534
32,950,665
0
36,834,199
11,926,212
48,760,411

1,935,531
27,167,192
280,794
29,383,517
12,581,397
41,964,914

1,614,553
15,795,793
330,203
17,740,548
12,696,685
30,437,233

1,110,950
8,352,899
0
9,463,849
12,109,341
21,573,190

690,358
5,002,010
(37,653)
5,654,715
12,021,484
17,676,200

1,039,007
3,278,054
(97,148)
4,219,913
11,882,662
16,102,575

1,157,298
3,463,701
(180,654)
4,440,345
11,187,816
15,628,161

Assets
Cash (1)
Accounts Receivable (2)
Inventories (3)
Total Current Assets
Net Prop. Plant & Equip. (4)
Total Assets

Liabilities and Owners' Equity

Accounts Payable (5)
Note Payable- Bank (6)
Accrued Taxes (7)
Total Current Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity (8)
Total Liabilities & Equity

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)

See Exhibit 9.
See panel 1, Exhibit 10.
See panel 2, Exhibit 10.
See panel 6, Exhibit 10.
See panel 3, Exhibit 10.
Plug figure.
See panel 5, Exhibit 10.
See panel 4, Exhibit 10.

1,614,553
1,146,268
(76,220)
2,684,601
11,674,120
14,358,721

90,900,108
13,635,016
77,265,092
66,993,380
10,271,712
5,454,006
1,073,731
1,835,620
1,908,355
572,506
1,335,848

EXHIBIT 9
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Schedule of Cash Receipts and Disbursements (in Rupees)

Assume:

January

February

2,616,120
2,446,072
1,146,268

2,892,825
4,842,338
2,962,622

New Borrowings (Repayments)

2,515,500
462,166

Accounts Paid (2)

Capital Expenditures
Interest Payments
Excise Tax Paid
Operating Expenses
Accrued Income Tax Paid
Wages
Dividends
Subtotal: Disbursements

1,591,054
0
11,058
392,418
454,501
0
540,958
0
2,989,989

Sales
Purchases (1)
Debt Outstanding

Receipts: Accts Rcvble Collected

Disburs.:

Receipts - Disbursements

(12,323)

BOP Cash Balance

EOP Cash Balance
(1) Equal to 55 percent of sales in period (T+2).
(2) Equal to purchases in period (T-1).

762,323
750,000

March

April

May

June

July

August

4,447,404
7,637,058
8,767,030

8,804,250
9,673,607
17,419,379

13,885,560
8,973,543
26,997,556

17,588,376
4,715,053
32,950,665

16,315,533
2,767,050
27,167,192

8,572,824
2,446,072
15,795,793

2,374,632
1,816,354

2,726,802
5,804,408

3,514,657
8,652,349

6,190,142
9,578,178

10,836,774
5,953,108

15,366,686 17,079,239
(5,783,473) (11,371,400)

2,446,072
0
24,825
433,924
454,501
0
831,665
0
4,190,986

4,842,338
350,000
70,867
667,111
454,501
0
1,646,395
500,000
8,531,210

7,637,058
0
158,210
1,320,638
454,501
0
2,596,600
0
12,167,005

9,673,607
0
268,352
2,082,834
454,501
0
3,289,026
0
15,768,320

8,973,543
350,000
362,187
2,638,256
454,501
460,390
3,051,005
500,000
16,789,882

4,715,053
0
363,212
2,447,330
454,501
0
1,603,118
0
9,583,214

750,000
750,000

750,000
750,000

750,000
750,000

750,000
750,000

750,000
750,000

September October

November December

5,031,000
1,942,469
8,352,899

4,447,404
1,521,878
5,002,010

3,531,762
1,870,526
3,278,054

2,767,050
1,988,817
3,463,701

13,218,449
(7,442,894)

7,156,094
(3,350,889)

4,797,562
(1,723,956)

4,081,147
185,647

2,767,050
0
259,568
1,285,924
454,501
0
940,797
0
5,707,839

2,446,072
350,000
145,898
754,650
454,501
292,770
831,665
500,000
5,775,555

1,942,469
0
80,686
667,111
454,501
0
660,439
0
3,805,206

1,521,878
0
50,025
529,764
454,501
0
517,438
0
3,073,606

1,870,526
350,000
40,731
415,058
454,501
0
635,979
500,000
4,266,794

750,000
750,000

750,000
750,000

750,000
750,000

750,000
750,000

750,000
750,000

750,000
750,000

January February
3,400,956

3,616,031

Exhibit 10
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Forecasted T-Accounts Supporting Financial Statements (in Rupees)
January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2,672,729
2,616,120
885,456
1,630,044
2,773,349

2,773,349
2,892,825
1,046,448
1,328,184
3,291,542

3,291,542
4,447,404
1,157,130
1,569,672
5,012,144

5,012,144
8,804,250
1,778,962
1,735,695
10,301,737

10,301,737
13,885,560
3,521,700
2,668,442
17,997,155

17,997,155
17,588,376
5,554,224
5,282,550
24,748,757

24,748,757
16,315,533
7,035,350
8,331,336
25,697,603

25,697,603
8,572,824
6,526,213
10,553,026
17,191,189

17,191,189
5,031,000
3,429,130
9,789,320
9,003,739

9,003,739
4,447,404
2,012,400
5,143,694
6,295,049

6,295,049
3,531,762
1,778,962
3,018,600
5,029,249

5,029,249
2,767,050
1,412,705
2,668,442
3,715,152

1,249,185
2,446,072
540,958
1,928,080
2,308,135

2,308,135
4,842,338
831,665
2,132,012
5,850,125

5,850,125
7,637,058
1,646,395
3,277,737
11,855,841

11,855,841
9,673,607
2,596,600
6,488,732
17,637,315

17,637,315
8,973,543
3,289,026
10,233,658
19,666,227

19,666,227
4,715,053
3,051,005
12,962,633
14,469,652

14,469,652
2,767,050
1,603,118
12,024,548
6,815,272

6,815,272
2,446,072
940,797
6,318,171
3,883,970

3,883,970
1,942,469
831,665
3,707,847
2,950,257

2,950,257
1,521,878
660,439
3,277,737
1,854,837

1,854,837
1,870,526
517,438
2,602,909
1,639,892

1,639,892
1,988,817
635,979
2,039,316
2,225,373

759,535
2,446,072
1,591,054
1,614,553

1,614,553
4,842,338
2,446,072
4,010,818

4,010,818
7,637,058
4,842,338
6,805,539

6,805,539
9,673,607
7,637,058
8,842,088

8,842,088
8,973,543
9,673,607
8,142,024

8,142,024
4,715,053
8,973,543
3,883,534

3,883,534
2,767,050
4,715,053
1,935,531

1,935,531
2,446,072
2,767,050
1,614,553

1,614,553
1,942,469
2,446,072
1,110,950

1,110,950
1,521,878
1,942,469
690,358

690,358
1,870,526
1,521,878
1,039,007

1,039,007
1,988,817
1,870,526
1,157,298

11,851,967 11,674,120 11,508,524 10,931,623

(177,847)
(165,596)
(76,900)
206,586
0
0
500,000
0
11,674,120 11,508,524 10,931,623 11,138,209

11,138,209
531,418
0
11,669,627

11,669,627
756,585
500,000
11,926,212

11,926,212
655,185
0
12,581,397

12,581,397
115,288
0
12,696,685

136,140
324,251
460,390
0

0
280,794
0
280,794

280,794
49,409
0
330,203

10,445,646
350,000
10,795,646
89,964
2,003,643
8,792,002

10,795,646
0
10,795,646
89,964
2,093,607
8,702,038

10,795,646
0
10,795,646
89,964
2,183,571
8,612,075

1. Schedule of Accounts Receivable

Beginning of Period
Plus Sales
Less Collections, Last Month (1)
Less Collections, Month before Last (2)
End of Period
(1) 40% of sales in period (T-1).
(2) 60% of sales in period (T-2).

2. Schedule of Inventories
Beginning of Period
Plus Purchases (1)
Plus Labor
Less Shipments (COGS)
End of Period
(1) Equal to 55 percent of sales in period (T+2).

3. Schedule of Accounts Payable

Beginning of Period
+ Purchases (1)
- Payments (2)
End of Period
(1) Equal to 55 percent of sales in period (T+2).
(2) Equal to purchases in period (T-1).

4. Schedule of Shareholder's Equity

Beginning of Period
Plus Net Profit
Less Dividends
End of Period

12,696,685 12,109,341 12,021,484 11,882,662

(87,343)
(87,857)
(138,822)
(194,847)
500,000
0
0
500,000
12,109,341 12,021,484 11,882,662 11,187,816

5. Schedule of Accrued Taxes

Beginning of Period
Plus Monthly Tax Expense (@ 30%)
Less Quarterly Tax Payments
End of Period

0
(76,220)
0
(76,220)

(76,220)
(70,970)
0
(147,190)

(147,190)
(32,957)
0
(180,148)

(180,148)
88,537
0
(91,611)

(91,611)
227,751
0
136,140

330,203
(37,433)
292,770
0

0
(37,653)
0
(37,653)

(37,653)
(59,495)
0
(97,148)

(97,148)
(83,506)
0
(180,654)

6. Schedule of Property, Plant and Equipment

Beginning Gross PP&E
Plus Capital Expenditures
Ending Gross PP&E
Monthly Depreciation Expense
Less Cumulative Depr'n.
Ending Net PP&E

10,095,646
0
10,095,646
84,130
1,568,408
8,527,237

10,095,646
0
10,095,646
84,130
1,652,539
8,443,107

10,095,646
350,000
10,445,646
87,047
1,739,586
8,706,060

10,445,646
0
10,445,646
87,047
1,826,633
8,619,013

10,445,646
0
10,445,646
87,047
1,913,680
8,531,966

10,795,646
350,000
11,145,646
92,880
2,276,451
8,869,194

11,145,646
0
11,145,646
92,880
2,369,332
8,776,314

11,145,646
0
11,145,646
92,880
2,462,212
8,683,434

11,145,646
350,000
11,495,646
95,797
2,558,009
8,937,637

Exhibit 11
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.

Assumptions
Debt Balance Summary
Jan '01
1,146,268
June '01 32,950,665
Dec '01
3,463,701
Ratio of:
Income Tax/Profit Before Tax
Excise Tax/Sales
This Month Collections of Last Month's Sales
This Month Collections of Month-before-Last Sales
Purchases/ Sales two months later
Wages/Purchases
Annual Operating Expenses/Annual Sales
Capital Expenditures (every third month)
Interest Rate on Borrowings (and deposits)
Minimum Cash Balance
Depreciation/Gross PP&E (per year)
(per month)
Dividends Paid (every third month)

30%
15%
40%
60%
55%
34%
6.00%
350,000
14.5%
750,000
10%
0.83%
500,000

Exhibit 12
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.

Trend of Certain Financal Accounts by Month

35,000,000

30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000

Sales
A/R
Inv

15,000,000

A/P
n/p

10,000,000

5,000,000
0

Januar y

Febr uar y

May

June

July

Novem ber

Decem ber

Sales

2,616,120

2,892,825

4,447,404

8,804,250

13,885,560

17,588,376

16,315,533

8,572,824

5,031,000

4,447,404

3,531,762

2,767,050

A/R

2,773,349

3,291,542

5,012,144

Mar ch

10,301,737

Apr il

17,997,155

24,748,757

25,697,603

17,191,189

August

Septem ber

9,003,739

6,295,049

October

5,029,249

3,715,152

Inv

2,308,135

5,850,125

11,855,841

17,637,315

19,666,227

14,469,652

6,815,272

3,883,970

2,950,257

1,854,837

1,639,892

2,225,373

A/P

1,614,553

4,010,818

6,805,539

8,842,088

8,142,024

3,883,534

1,935,531

1,614,553

1,110,950

690,358

1,039,007

1,157,298

n/p

1,146,268

2,962,622

8,767,030

17,419,379

26,997,556

32,950,665

27,167,192

15,795,793

8,352,899

5,002,010

3,278,054

3,463,701