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After a 2-1-3 finish in Day 1, I was faced with the perennial question:
continue to play what I’ve been playing or try something else? I could revert
back to Tyrant Oath, or tune up my GAT list, or play something else entirely.
Tyrant Oath seemed automatically off the table since the Painter’s Servant
deck seemed to hand it its head on a platter.
My chief complaint was that I simply couldn’t finish games on time with
GAT. On Day 1, I had three unintentional draws. In essentially all three of
those draws, I had a winning board state or was on the very precipice of
victory. This problem is not new.
At SCG Chicago, last October, my Day 2 record was 4-1-2, with one
unintentional draws. On Day 2, my record was identical, 4-1-2, with two
unintentional draws, but another one that was avoided because Nat
scooped to me. In 14 rounds of Magic, that’s 28.5% of my matches drawing
unintentionally.
The more stunning statistic is that six of my rounds went to time or would
have gone to time. That doesn’t mean that those matches were draws, but
it does mean that we played into turns. That’s an astounding 42.8% of my
matches going to time. When we add in SCG Richmond Day 1, that
percentage shoots up even higher. Four of my six matches went to turns.
Out of 20 rounds of magic, fifty percent of my matches were going to time.
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Only after careful reflection did I understand why I was going to time. The
process of transcription was diverting mental energy and my focus. Every
time someone made a play, I was moving to notate it and, what’s more,
check the accuracy of my plays. It wasn’t the physical writing that sucked up
time. It was the distraction.
It would be like taking the SAT but looking at your watch every 20 seconds.
The cumulative effect is devastating.
I decided that I would take no notes whatsoever aside from life totals, storm
count, and hands that I had seen with Duress. The effect was stunning. I
went from having over fifty percent of my Day 1 matches go to turns, and a
full 50% of my previous three SCG tournament matches go to time with a
whopping 7 unintentional draws to no unintentional draws.
I could feel the difference. It wasn’t simply the time that mattered, but I had
a much better command over game board state. The play-by-plays not only
distracted me, but it also drew my attention to the wrong elements of the
game, such as which turn it was or what tactics had most recently
transpired, instead of helping me inhabit in the mental space that existed at
any given point between two players and more quickly puzzle out the
correct play. With that focus came the ethereal feeling of empowerment. It
isn’t a feeling that I am unbeatable or invincible, but the recognition that I
am a likely contender to win this tournament, which exists just at the edge
of consciousness.
I would play GAT, but I would make a few small changes. I thought all
evening about what could go into the Berserk slot. People suggested a
range of cards, but none seemed to make sense. Just as I was on the brink
of falling asleep in my hotel room, a concatenation of thoughts
criss-crossed my mind and the puzzle was solved. If I cut the Psychatog for
Empty the Warrens, I would have a combo finish that wouldn’t need
Berserk. Then I could cut the Berserk for a Misdirection, which was the card
I wanted to fit in. I wouldn’t have to add Mox Ruby if I just cut the second
basic Island for a Volcanic Island. Thus, my deck was set. I woke up that
morning and fortunately recalled my mental notes from the darkness before
sleep. I made those changes before showering and heading down for a
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satisfying brunch.
Here’s my deck:
GAT
A Vintage deck, by Stephen Menendian
5th place at a StarCityGames Power 9 Tournament
tournament in Richmond, Virginia, United States on
2008-05-11
As reported at http://www.starcitygames.com
Print this deck!
Maindeck: Sideboard:
Instants
2 Yixlid Jailer
Artifacts 1 Ancestral Recall
4 Leyline Of The Void
4 Brainstorm
1 Black Lotus 1 Echoing Truth
2 Seal Of Primordium
1 Mox Emerald 2 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Force Of Will
2 Rebuild
1 Mox Jet 4 Gush
3 Island
1 Misdirection
1 Mox Sapphire 1 Mystical Tutor
Stats:
1 Vampiric Tutor
Average mana: 1.54
Creatures Average creature mana
Sorceries
4 Quirion Dryad 1 Demonic Tutor
cost: 2.00
Average creature power:
4 Duress
1.00
Enchantments 1 Empty The Warrens
Average creature
4 Merchant Scroll
1 Fastbond 4 Ponder
toughness: 1.00
4 Thoughtseize
1 Time Walk Deck Composition:
1 Yawgmoth's Will Artifacts: 7.14%
Basic Lands: 1.79%
Basic Lands Creatures: 7.14%
1 Island Enchantments: 1.79%
Instants: 30.36%
Lands Lands: 23.21%
2 Flooded Strand Sorceries: 28.57%
4 Polluted Delta
2 Tropical Island
4 Underground Sea
1 Volcanic Island
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Game 1:
I arrived at the tournament site, registered my deck, and sat down for the
first round. I greeted my opponent, started to pile shuffle, and something
was amiss. My five piles came up short by one card. I counted my deck out,
ten cards at a time and, again, I counted 59 cards. This was the first time
this has ever happened to me.
I stood up and called a judge. The head judge came over and informed me
that I had 3 minutes to present my deck. I told him that it would be unlikely
that I would figure out the missing card in that time.
Nonetheless, I tried. I started to sort out my deck face down, then quickly
realized that made little sense. On my decklist registration sheet, I had the
deck organized into four-ofs (32), singletons (10), and mana (18). I quickly
counted up my mana and counted 18 cards. I moved to the singletons and
counted 9. Aha! I knew I was missing a singleton, but which one? I saw
Ancestral, Fastbond, the tutors… what could it be? Hmmm. Of course! I
was missing Echoing Truth. The judge brought me a sharpie and a land and
I quickly scrawled out Echoing Truth and the mana cost "1U" and sleeved it
up and presented. The judge nonetheless awarded me a game loss since
almost four minutes had elapsed. I didn’t contest this judgment. I skeptically
inquired if that much time really had elapsed, and that was that. The judge
informed us that we were to proceed to game 2 without sideboarding. We
agreed.
Game 2:
I kept a one-land hand and opened the game with Island, Ponder. Seeing
no lands, I shuffled my library. He opened with Orchard, Mox, giving me key
information. I topdecked a land and played Time Walk. On my Time Walk
turn upkeep, I played Mystical Tutor for Ancestral Recall. I drew Ancestral
and played it. He Forced me, I Forced him again, and he had yet another
Force, countering my Recall.
After that skirmish, both of us were spent, but I was playing a deck that had
fewer mana sources and more business. He used his Orchard to try and dig
for Oaths with Brainstorms and Ponders to no avail, while I attacked him
with two tokens to 16 and then, after he did one point of damage to himself,
to 13, to 11, and then to 8… and then after he tapped his Orchard yet
again, from 8 to 4. At that point, no Oath could save him.
Game 3:
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Seal of Primordium
Merchant Scroll
Brainstorm
Ponder
Gush
Stu began with turn 1 Oath. Fortunately, I had Force of Will for once, while
he did not. Moreover, I had Seal of Primordium in my opening hand. The
problem was that I didn’t have a Mox to play it on turn 1. He would have
gotten to activate Oath had I not had Force. I played cantrips and lands. On
his third turn, he floated mana and played Gush.
At that moment, I felt that the match might slip his way, but my opponent’s
rules competence and tactical experience seemed to cover a strategic
confusion on his part. My opponent knew how to play Vintage, but he
maybe didn’t see the bigger picture. He could play just as well as I could in
terms of the mechanics of Vintage, but I think he couldn’t see the forest for
the trees.
From that point on, I took control of the game with draw spells and multiple
Duresses. He never got back in the game. My board development and draw
kicked in while he sat there lamely. His poorly timed Gush practically
handed me the game.
Poor Ray. We were both pretty pumped about our rematch. I faced Ray in
the quarter finals of the Vintage World Championships, and narrowly
escaped.
I won best two of three in (rock) lobster, paper (tiger), scissors (lizard), and
elected to go first.
3 Land
Fastbond
Gush
Ponder
Quirion Dryad
My turn 1 featured:
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I played Quirion Dryad, then Scrolled for Gush, Gushed again, and
continued to combo out.
I played all four Gushes and then Time Walked. I then untapped, played
Demonic Tutor for Yawgmoth's Will and played it. I managed to grow the
Dryad to 20/20 while hovering just under 5 life. I swung in for lethal damage
before he even got a turn.
Polluted Delta
Underground Sea
Force of Will
Ponder
Gush
Thoughtseize
Yawgmoth's Will
I felt that I could potentially just combo out here, but there was no urgency. I
played Thoughtseize and saw an anemic start, taking Ray's Gorilla
Shaman. I began to combo out on turn 3, showed ray my Yawgmoth's Will,
and he scooped.
Hulk Flash
A Vintage deck, by Nick Coss
3rd place at a StarCityGames Power 9 Tournament
tournament in Richmond, Virginia, United States on
2008-05-11
As reported at http://www.starcitygames.com
Print this deck!
Maindeck: Sideboard:
Instants
1 Heart Sliver
Artifacts 1 Ancestral Recall
2 Trygon Predator
4 Brainstorm
1 Black Lotus 1 Chain Of Vapor
4 Virulent Sliver
1 Lotus Petal 3 Extirpate
4 Flash
1 Gaea's Blessing
1 Mox Emerald 4 Force Of Will
2 Reverent Silence
1 Misdirection
1 Mox Jet 1 Mystical Tutor
2 Thoughtseize
1 Mox Pearl 4 Pact Of Negation
Stats:
1 Mox Ruby 2 Summoner's Pact
Average mana: 1.63
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mox Sapphire Average creature mana
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I knew Nick was on Hulk Flash and was not happy that he won the die roll.
Fortunately, I knew I had tremendous advantages in this match. I had 8
Duresses and Leylines post-board.
Game 1:
Summoner's Pact
Summoner's Pact
Pact of Negation
Pact of Negation
Flash
Body Snatcher
Terrifying! I took the Flash, obviously. Apparently Nick did not have an
Elvish Spirit Guide maindeck, otherwise he could have stomped me
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already. Nick took a risk keeping a one-land hand. He did not draw another
land on turn 2, and simply said 'draw, go.'
Two turns later, I Duressed him again and saw Flash and Merchant Scroll! I
took the Flash, of course. He then drew a land and played Merchant Scroll.
I Pondered, Gushed, and found another Duress, snagging his Ancestral
Recall this time. From here, I was able to keep control of the game just long
enough to win with a Dryad, which killed him within about three turns. The
Duresses helped me keep control over a game that Red Elemental Blast
would probably not have been able to win.
Game 2:
I struggled with trying to figure out what to board out. I brought in four
Leylines and sideboarded out, I believe, Empty the Warrens, Ponder, a
Quirion Dryad, and a Merchant Scroll.
I thought about my hand. It didn't have Leyline nor did it have Force of Will,
but it did have double Thoughtseize and a powerful assortment of
supporting cards. It was a risk, but I decided to keep it.
Flash
Merchant Scroll
Underground Sea
Reveillark
Protean Hulk
Protean Hulk
This was a tough call. I entertained the notion of Thoughtseizing him again
to take both Hulks. On the other hand, if he drew a Hulk or Brainstormed
into a Summoner's Pact, he could try to win on the spot. It was a tough call,
but I stripped away his Scroll and his Flash. Over the next few turns, he
seemed to draw nothing relevant while I tried to build up a hand. He
Thoughtseized me and stripped a counter. I had Scrolled up Ancestral
Recall and fired it off.
I played a Quirion Dryad. I Duressed him and saw his hand was still
garbage – there wasn't even anything I could take. He Thoughtseized me
again, this time seeing:
Brainstorm
Land
Force of Will
He took my Brainstorm.
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Even though I don't think his play makes the most sense, there are a couple
of points to commend it. There were a few possibilities. First of all, I could
have drawn a non-Blue spells on the turn after he Thoughtseized me, and
then another non-Blue spell. I would have lost under either one of those
scenarios. Second, I could have drawn a Blue spell and then a non-Blue
spell. That is what happened. Under this scenario, his best option is to wait
until I play the Blue spell. But the risk is that I draw a Blue spell on the
second draw. The third scenario is that I draw a non-Blue spell and then a
Blue spell. Here, the right play is to play Flash on my upkeep... right? Not
necessarily. If I go to play the Blue spell, then he can get me in response.
Although I don't think his play was the most logical, there is a logic to it.
He got me.
We shuffle up for game 3, and this one wasn't even close. My notes
indicate that my life total fell rapidly, suggesting that I was Gushbonding out.
I also know that he drew garbage. At one point I Duressed and saw Protean
Hulk, Mogg Fanatic, and an Island.
Tyrant Oath
A Vintage deck, by Ben Kowal
7th place at a StarCityGames Power 9 Tournament
tournament in Richmond, Virginia, United States on
2008-05-11
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As reported at http://www.starcitygames.com
Print this deck!
Maindeck: Sideboard:
Instants
4 Leyline Of The Void
Artifacts 1 Ancestral Recall
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Brain Freeze
1 Black Lotus 4 Brainstorm
1 Extirpate
1 Mox Emerald 2 Red Elemental Blast
1 Chain Of Vapor
1 Duress
1 Mox Jet 1 Extirpate
2 Empty The Warrens
4 Force Of Will
1 Mox Pearl 4 Gush
1 Gaea's Blessing
1 Mox Ruby 1 Pyroclasm
1 Krosan Reclamation
1 Island
1 Mox Sapphire 1 Mystical Tutor
1 Volcanic Island
1 Vampiric Tutor
Creatures Stats:
Sorceries
Average mana: 1.60
2 Tidespout Tyrant 1 Demonic Tutor
Average creature mana
1 Duress
cost: 8.00
3 Merchant Scroll
Enchantments Average creature power:
3 Ponder
5.00
1 Fastbond 2 Thoughtseize
Average creature
1 Time Walk
4 Oath Of Druids 1 Yawgmoth's Will
toughness: 5.00
I was pleased to win the die roll. I was also pleased to draw Misdirection in
my opening hand. It was much better than a Berserk would have been.
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Polluted Delta
Underground Sea
Mox Sapphire
Mox Pearl
Force of Will
Time Walk
Mystical Tutor
Ben described his hand as weak. I would not say so. Topdecking half the
cards in his deck turn this into a solid hand. My Duress is what makes it
weak. Worse for him, Duress does double duty here. It provides me with
critical information while stripping away a good card. I take the Force of Will,
which should be a signal that I have a trick up my sleeve.
Had I not had the Misdirection or a Force, I almost certainly would have
taken the Mystical Tutor.
You would think that the game would be over in short order at that point.
The problem is that Ben has seen one additional card - a card he drew on
his first turn. Once I Misdirected the Ancestral, he popped a Delta for
Tropical Island and played Oath of Druids.
This was quite a dilemma for me. I knew the rest of his hand and I
recognized this danger. I was simply hoping that he wouldn't topdeck one of
the few cards he needed to get him back in this game. That's precisely what
he did. You see, the problem is that I pitched Echoing Truth to Misdirection.
I had no way to bounce or remove the Oath. Although I had a huge tactical
advantage, his Oath gave him inevitability. I would have to beat him in a
very short window of opportunity. The good news was that his Ancestral
drew me into my own. Timing would be critical here.
I had the tools to race his quest for an Orchard, but I needed overwhelming
combo power to a) generate enough storm and card advantage to b) find
and play a lethal Empty the Warrens and c) play Time Walk. Even with the
card power I had in hand, I doubt I had the ability to pull that off even
though I have access to Yawgmoth's Will. So I waited.
I play some land and drew a few more cards. He drew some cards. I kept
him off balance by Duressing him on consecutive turns, seeing an Island
and then a Tidespout Tyrant. Finally, three turns after I Ancestraled myself,
I decided to go for it. I had seen his hand save one card and I had a Force
of Will in case he’d topdecked Force (which he could hardcast).
You see, I wasn't just racing against the time it took him to find Orchard - I
was almost as concerned about the possibility that he may find an Extirpate.
I had to go for it. I played Fastbond and just Gushed, Gushed, Pondered,
Etc. I played a lot of spells, but didn't see Empty the Warrens or Mystical
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Ben got to Oath, and most of his library flopped onto his graveyard. The
good news for me was that Ben thought that Flash of Insight was garbage.
If Ben had been running Flash of Insight, he would have won game 1. I had
kept his hand pared down, so the only chance he would have to win would
be to draw something amazing in his draw step. He did not. He Reclaimed
some broken spells into his deck, but it ultimately didn't matter. He had a
Tidespout Tyrant in play and had to pass the turn. He scooped up and we
shuffled for game 2.
In game 2, I had a one of the power hands. Ben's hand was a mix of gas
and mana, but my hand was just better, mostly thanks to Duress.
Ben opened the game with Land, Ponder. I opened the game with Mox Jet,
Duress, seeing:
Forbidden Orchard
Polluted Delta
Underground Sea
Brainstorm
Ponder
At this point, I'm 4-0 and practical a lock for Top 8. Unfortunately, there are
only three people with the same record, so I get paired down with Eric
Becker, who is 3-0-1. Eric is known outside of Vintage for helping develop
Paul Cheon's Grand Prix winning X Level Blue deck. Eric is playing a
homebrew he thought up in the shower that morning. It's basically a Bluer
variant of Vinny Forino's UB deck that I faced at the Vintage Champs last
year.
I offered a draw, but Eric would still have to win out. If he lost this game, he
would still have to win the next round. So a draw or a loss was almost the
same.
I'm not exactly sure who won the die roll, but I think Eric and I both
mulliganed. Eric probably led, since when I saw his hand it looked like this:
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Necropotence
Sundering Titan
Tendrils of Agony
Dark Confidant
Mystical Tutor
Eric was stuck on one land, and I don't think it was a Blue mana source. I
believe I took Mystical Tutor. Based upon my fading recollection, here is
what happened. Eric drew a card and passed. I played something relevant
and passed again. He Demonic Consultationed for Dark Ritual. He found
the Dark Ritual about 10 cards down and then went for Necropotence. My
previous Duress alerted me to this plan, and I was ready for it. I Forced his
Necro. He drew a land a turn later and played Bob, but by that point I
answered with Dryad and started growing it. I had a 5/5 Dryad within a turn
with Ponder, Gush, and Duress. I waited another turn to grow him again,
but with a 6/6 I sent him from 12 to 6 to 0 life.
Game 2:
I have no recollection of this game except that Eric had a long Brainstorm
and that ultimately the game was very one-sided in my favor. The match
ended with plenty of time left in the round, and I sat down to organize my
deck for the Top 8 deck check.
We drew.
My only game loss in the swiss, aside from the penalty game loss in round
1, came from Nick Coss, and was entirely avoidable had I just
Thoughtseized him first. The loss in Top 8 could have been avoided as
well…
Gush Tendrils
A Vintage deck, by A.J. Grasso
2nd place at a StarCityGames Power 9 Tournament
tournament in Richmond, Virginia, United States on
2008-05-11
As reported at http://www.starcitygames.com
Print this deck!
Maindeck: Sideboard:
Sorceries
1 Darksteel Colossus
Artifacts 1 Demonic Tutor
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Duress
1 Black Lotus 1 Empty The Warrens
2 Extirpate
1 Lotus Petal 1 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Merchant Scroll
2 Pyroblast
1 Mana Crypt 3 Ponder
1 Rebuild
1 Regrowth
1 Mox Emerald 1 Tendrils Of Agony
1 Red Elemental Blast
1 Mox Jet 1 Gaea's Blessing
2 Thoughtseize
1 Tinker
1 Mox Ruby 1 Time Walk
1 Tropical Island
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Anthony and I faced each other the day before. He had obviously decided
on a different weapon for Day 2. I had seen him face an earlier opponent,
so I knew what he was playing and was confident that I could dispatch him.
I was more concerned about having to face Jerry Yang in the semi-finals,
until I realized that Jerry was in a different bracket. I honestly figured that it
would probably be a straight shot to the finals. I recognized that this is
Vintage, and a slight mistake can cost a match in a format in which anything
or anyone can win.
I think I surprised myself, not simply my opponents, by the fact that I kept a
no-land hand. It was a bold move to open a quarter-finals match. I decided
to keep a hand with no land, but it had a Mox Jet, Duress, and a Force of
Will. I reasoned as follows. I could draw any of my 17 remaining mana
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Unfortunately, I didn’t draw a mana source in my first two turns, but on turn
3 I drew the best mana source of all: Black Lotus. Oddly enough (or
perhaps not) it seemed as if I had lost little in that delay. I broke the Lotus
for UUU and Pondered into a land, Brainstormed and so on.
Quirion Dryad
Gush
Gush
Gush
Merchant Scroll
It didn’t matter though, as he played the last card I expected him to play:
Timetwister. I shuffled my hand and graveyard into my library, a bit
dismayed that the tiny graveyard I had begun to accumulate would be
washed away, as if it had never been, but pacified by the realization that my
opponent’s hard work would be undone as well.
For a deck with 8 Duress for disruption, the greatest fear is that my
opponent would simply draw the cards he needs to win while I am sitting on
cards that are not Force of Will, drawn through the Timetwister.
I untapped and began to think about how to utilize my new hand, how I may
want to modulate it based upon the aggressiveness of my opponent’s hand,
how to maximize my efficiency, and so on. Many of these operations now
congeal well below consciousness.
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I saw:
Force of Will
Force of Will
Misdirection
Tendrils of Agony
Underground Sea
Yawgmoth’s Will
Brainstorm
Force of Will
2 lands
Game 2:
Anthony mulliganed to 6. I knew from the way the last game went that I’d
probably stomp him this game. Although it wasn’t quite as lopsided as I
expected, it wasn’t close either.
Anthony’s deck is pretty typical of Gush Tendrils decks that I’ve seen. A big
part of his game plan is to resolve Yawgmoth’s Will. If I can Echoing Truth
either the Empty the Warrens or his Tinker target, then Leyline can pretty
much deal with Tendrils by keeping Yawgmoth’s Will offline.
My plan worked perfectly. He played land, go. I Duressed him on turn 1 and
saw:
Underground Sea
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Gush
Lotus Petal
Merchant Scroll
Merchant Scroll
Game 3:
Mox Sapphire
Mox Emerald
Underground Sea
Brainstorm
Fastbond
Gush
Yawgmoth’s Will
Gush
Mox Jet
Force of Will
My fears were well founded. Anthony opened the game with Black Lotus,
Land, and double Tarmogoyf.
He passed the turn back to me. I lamely drew a card I had already seen and
passed the turn back.
I drew a card I had already seen and passed the turn again.
I was in panic mode. I figured I might have one more turn. If he swings at
me for 6 damage, I’ll be at four. I decided to play Fastbond. If it got down,
then I’d have more mana on my last chance turn to play other spells. That
plan doesn’t necessarily make a lot of sense. My best bet, in reality, is
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probably just to play Yawgmoth’s Will and Brainstorm again, hoping to hit
another land and then try to Gush out.
I played Fastbond anyway and he Force of Willed it, countering it. I let his
Force resolve. I quickly realized the error I had made in playing Fastbond
instead of Yawgmoth’s Will. With Fastbond in the graveyard his Goyfs were
now 4/5. He untapped and played a Sorcery spell and then I was dead. His
Goyfs swung me from 10 to zero in no time flat.
If there is a lesson here, it’s not to get cocky with good cards. Had I not
been blinded by the jewelry in hand, I may have been a bit more cautious
with my Brainstorm and more aggressive in trying to replay it with
Yawgmoth’s Will. I also was blindsided by double Goyf on turn 1. Anthony
got me by surprise, and it paid off. But it wasn’t a threat that I couldn’t
handle. Dryads are larger than Goyfs five days a week.
I’d like to turn to a few issues that continuously arose during the course of
the tournament.
No-Land Hands
The general rule has always been: if you have a no land hand, you can’t
keep that hand. Perhaps I should be less rigid in my mulligan decisions.
True, it’s been a useful rule. A hand with land can operate, it can move its
game plan forward. A hand without land is a hand that can do very little.
However, GroAtog does present some special considerations.
Second, the total payoff could potentially be bigger from just keeping an
otherwise-powerful no-land hand. A six-land hand with one land is a
functional five-card hand. A no-land hand that draws a land in the first two
turns is a seven-card hand that is temporarily non-functional. It’s not entirely
clear which is better. If it’s game 1 of an unknown match, the risk is high
simply because information matters and your game plan offers
opportunities to gain further information as you interact with your opponent.
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If you have already won game 1, the risks are lower. You’ll be on the draw,
and missing a turn 1 land drop won’t be that painful if you make your turn 2
land drop. Moreover, you’ve already won a game so the cost of losing game
2 is probably not terribly high, and the risk is not that much higher, if at all,
than if you mulligan to 6. Of course, there are some offsetting
considerations that need not be mentioned as they are part of the
convention wisdom.
In the future, I think I will allow myself to be more open to the possibility – at
least with GroAtog – of doing what the convention wisdom has long
condemned – keeping no-land hands.
After the events of SCG Richmond, while hanging out with some of the
Vintage crowd, Owen Turtenwald described Ponder as a terrible card partly
because it only gets you one card for one card. To evaluate the scope of his
claim, I asked him about Brainstorm, which also only gets you +1 card for
one card. Owen responded with the correct answer that Brainstorm is a
great card and is different from Ponder because it trades bad cards for
good cards, and the bad cards can then be shuffled away. So it is obviously
more than just card advantage considerations that determine the quality of
these cantrips.
But then I started thinking about cards like Impulse. Impulse was long
considered a good card, used in decks in virtually all formats, including Pro
Tour winning decks. Ponder has been, at least in terms of its ability to dig, a
new and (in my view) improved Impulse. I frankly think that Owen is wrong. I
think that Ponder’s ability to dig three cards deep for one Blue mana puts it
in a special class shared by only two other spells. If Ponder isn’t being used
in other formats, I think that is less a statement about the strength of
Ponder than the particular landscape of those formats. Ponder’s digging
power is particularly useful when you are assembling two-card combos. Its
digging power loses value if one of two things is true: first, if the tempo
advantage of having an important card on turn 2 matters very little, or if
there are few shuffle effects in the format. Before the printing of Fetchlands,
Brainstorm saw almost no play in Vintage, if you can believe that.
Obviously, if Vintage players could turn back the clock, I would have built 4
Merchant Scroll decks with 4 Brainstorms back in 2002 and 2001 and won
gobs of Power, but alas, I have no time machine. For that reason, I can see
Brainstorm not being used very much even in certain Standard formats,
despite the fact that Owen describes it, but not Ponder, as a great card.
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If your hand is great, I would play Ponder. If your hand is bad, I would play
Brainstorm.
Tropical Island
Underground Sea
Polluted Delta
Mox Emerald
Ponder
Brainstorm
Force of Will (or Gush)
This hand is not bad, but it’s not great either. With this hand, I would play
Brainstorm. You can trade some useless mana spells for some better
business right now. I would play Brainstorm and then plan to shuffle the
chaff away next turn.
Tropical Island
Underground Sea
Ponder
Brainstorm
Gush
Merchant Scroll
Force of Will
Quirion Dryad
There is really no chaff here. You have pretty much everything you want or
need for the first three turns of the game. I would play Ponder here. You
don’t need to trade chaff for anything (if you don’t like Dryads in your
opening hand, imagine the Dryad is a Duress).
So, my basic rule of thumb is this: if you have at least one card that you
would like to shuffle back or don’t need, Brainstorm gets better. But if your
hand is pretty much set and you are using Ponder to dig not so much for
specific tactical components as just to potentially draw you into restricted
cards like Black Lotus, then Ponder is better. Since most of my hands are
hands that I’m happy with, I tend to play Ponder first.
A further consideration that makes it more likely that I’ll play Ponder is the
fact that Brainstorm is a great card to follow Gush. After returning two lands
to your hand, you won’t need to be holding three lands for very long.
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Since Thoughtseize takes any card, whereas Duress only takes spells, the
convention wisdom is that Thoughtseize should clearly be played first or on
the blind game 1, turn 1 scenario. I don’t agree.
Creatures are by far the weakest type of Vintage card. Creatures are slow,
inflexible, and underpowered. Despite having a restricted list that tops out
around 50 cards, there are no creatures on that list. Every other major card
type can be found there. The creatures that are played in Vintage are the
cream of the crop. Even then, they pale in comparison to everything else.
Given that creatures are the weakest card type and generally the weakest
components of any given deck as well as the slowest (and therefore the
least worrisome because they are the least interactive), the cards that
should concern you the most from your opponents hand are not likely to be
creatures. The best card, no matter the hand, is almost always going to be
a spell. Even if you are playing against a dense creature deck like Goblins
or Fish, this true. Just look back at my Goblins match from last week. I
played Thoughtseize on turn 1 and saw Goblin Piledriver and Goblin
Warchief, but the obvious correct card to take was Black Lotus.
The problem is that the second or third best card will often be a creature.
When you Duress first, even if your opponent has creatures that you are
concerned about, you will generally want to take a spell first, whether it is
Force of Will or another Duress. The subsequent Thoughtseize can nab the
pesky Aven Mindcensor, Dark Confidant, or what-have-you. Therefore, if
you are presented with a situation in which you could play either Duress or
Thoughtseize on turn 1, it is my inclination to play Duress, particularly if you
are aware of the matchup. The fact that Thoughtseize is Misdirectable is
another, but minor, reason that supports this choice.
Please note: this does not in any way, shape, or form imply that I think that
Duress is a better card. Far from it. Thoughtseize is definitely the superior
weapon. It simply means that when you play a deck that runs both cards,
and particularly a deck that runs large quantity of both cards as my
8-Duress GAT list does, you will face this decision frequently and will have
to find a way to decide. It’s my general rule, although far from a rigid rule,
that Duressing first is the sounder play.
While we are on the topic of Duress… although I covered this topic two
weeks ago, I did receive a few questions about whether I thought that 8
Duress effects was too much or whether it was a calculated metagame
choice. The answer to both question is: No. Eight Duresses is not really a
lot of Duresses. That’s merely one every 7.5 cards, or barely one for every
opening hand on average. There are games, sadly, where I do not have a
turn 1 or 2 Duress, even in matchups where it is highly desirable. If I were
allowed, I would probably play around 10 or 11, at a number where I was
almost guaranteed to see one in my opening hand and another shortly
thereafter. The only matchup where Duress is suboptimal is a matchup
where GAT has very little pre-board action: The Workshop match. But
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against the vast majority of the field, whether it is Flash, Oath, Painters
decks, Combo, or what-have-you, the Duresses are amazing.
Many years ago, I wrote an essay for an ancient Vintage website called
Bdominia.com (the predecessor to TheManaDrain.com) applying economic
principles to an analysis of Duress. I reasoned that the utility of Duress was
approximate to the value of the card taken by it. The opportunity cost (a key
economic concept) of any slot in a Vintage deck is high. Vintage is full of
great cards, and running one card implies the rejection of another, which is
the cost of running the card you have selected. Therefore, the cost of
Duress is the marginal utility of Duress and the opportunity cost of that slot
measured against the benefit derived from taking a particular card from
your opponent on average. In old Vintage, Duress frequently had a very low
utility both because people ran so many bad decks, but also because there
were so few "combo" finishes in 2000, 2001, and even 2002 Vintage that it
was not uncommon for both decks to have emptied their hands in battle and
have small board advantages, like a Jackal Pup eating away at Keeper’s life
total. Also, Keeper needed a way to stop spells from hitting the board from
the top of the opponent’s deck, not simply take away the opponent’s
answers so it could combo out. Keeper couldn’t and didn’t combo out. My
ultimate conclusion was that the utility of Duress just wasn’t high enough to
justify its presence in most Vintage decks at the time. Almost each of
today’s decks combo out at some point. They don’t sit around waiting at
their leisure to play a relevant spell. Tempo matters a lot more. Games are
compressed. In that environment, Duress is amazing. Vintage decks have
about 4.5 turns per game, compared to 8 years ago when Vintage decks
took their sweet time.
It’s not just that Duress wasn’t nearly as good in 2000 and 2001… the cost
of running Duress was higher in pre-2003 Vintage, a format before
Onslaught fetchlands. Running a 4-5 color deck required manabases that
had a very high mix of dual lands, and even cards like City of Brass.
Without making huge sacrifices, there was no way to consistently guarantee
a Black mana on turn 1 that would maximize the use of Duress. You could
easily draw Volcanic Island, Tundra, Tropical Island, but no Black mana.
Those concerns don’t exist today since Fetchlands are the backbone of
Vintage manabases and the ubiquitous presence of Brainstorm.
Looking Ahead
I had two losses in two tournaments, one in the swiss on Day 1 and one in
the Top 8 on Day 2. I see little reason not to continue to play GroAtog in
major Vintage tournaments in the future. Although many people, especially
Europeans, are skeptical of GroAtog right now, I’m pretty firmly convinced
that it is the best deck in the format. My reasoning basically runs like this.
First of all, this deck beats Tyrant Oath. With 8 Duresses and the inherent
spell to mana advantage, it’s difficult for Tyrant Oath to consistently beat
this GAT list. I was 2-0-1 against Tyrant Oath this weekend, and the draw
would have been a victory had I had 10 more minutes. Second, this GAT list
beats Flash and Painter decks. With 8 Duresses, Painter combo is easily
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broken up and disrupted. Flash is a tough match for anyone, but if anything
helps, it’s Duress effects.
This deck’s worst matchup is not simply Workshops, but something that
actually run Smokestacks. Very few people play Smokestacks, and I don’t
anticipate that that number will rise anytime soon. Smokestack is slow and
worthless against Oath, Flash, Painter, Ichorid, and pretty much everything
else. In addition, Workshop decks are back at a lower ebb again.
In short, the metagame is highly favorable for GAT. The forces that bound it
are such that it is unlikely that a metagame shift will happen that will prove
unfavorable for GAT. Painter’s Servant can be thanked for that.
This deck also packs the absolute best spells in the format in the highest
density proportions. 8 Duresses, 8 Brainstorms, 5 Pitch spells, and the
entire Gushbond combo. Quite simply, they are the best cards in the format.
The only one card change I’m likely to make is to cut the Empty the
Warrens for a maindeck Tendrils, although it’s far from a given at the
moment. There is also one other set that will become legal before the
Vintage Championship at U.S. Nationals in early August. Meanwhile, over
the next few months I will enjoy exploring other decks that other people
have been innovating.
Stephen Menendian
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