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Trading Simulation using a coin toss to determine outcome

The spreadsheet on the "Trading Simulation" page was designed to replicate the randomness of 100 coin
tosses. Each coin toss represents a winning trade or a losing trade, and each trade is presumed to incur
the largest win or loss (as determined by the target parameters set by the user).

The cumulative effect of 100 coin tosses is shown in the "Summary" box. The data/results from each trade
(coin toss) is shown at the bottom of that page.

USER-ENTERED PARAMETERS:

The blue-shaded cells require the user to input the parameters. In each of these cells, the use can position
the mouse over the cell, and an information box will appear with more explanation of the information
needed for that cell. Default information has already been entered, but the user can change these values
to their liking.

Commissions have been included in this analysis. The trading involved in following the RadioActive Profit
Machine methodology requires at least two stock trades (one to open the position and one to close the
position) at least two option trades (one to buy the protective put and one to sell the put to close out the
position) and probably at least two other option trades (depending on the choice of income methods used
and to what extent). Therefore, this spreadsheet uses the presumption that one "Round Trip" is equal to 2
stock trades and 4 option trades. Once the user enters their trading cost information, the cost of one round
trip will be calculated and incorporated into the results calculations.

In order to run the simulation, type anything (not literally) into the green box. The spreadsheet has
been set up so that once something--anything--is typed into the green box, the 100 random "coin tosses"
take place and the results are shown in the Summary Box.

Once the scenario has been run, scroll down to see the individual trade results and their effect of the value
of the portfolio.

PLEASE NOTE: Once the scenario has been run, changing any of the information in the blue boxes
or editing anything in the green box will cause the simulation to run again and produce a new set of
results. If you want to see information about a particular simulation, either print the spreadsheet or
write down the results before running it again. At the same time, you can run many simulations to
see the various outcomes that can result from your set of parameters by typing something new into
the green box.
Trading Simulation using 100 Tosses of a coin

Beginning Balance: $10,000.00 10.0% Win Target


10.0% Loss Limit
Commissions:
Stock trade $9.95 SUMMARY:
Option trade $10.74 Beginning Balance: $10,000.00
Round Trip $62.86
Out of 100 trades,
Ending Balance: $613.37 50 Wins
50 Losses
Type something here:
Low Value: $613.37
hey High Value: $11,973.39

Ending Balance: 613.37


TRADE RESULTS AND BALANCE INFORMATION:
Beginning Balance: $10,000.00
1 LOSE 8,937.14 51 WIN 3,349.71
2 LOSE 7,980.57 52 LOSE 2,951.88
3 WIN 8,715.76 53 WIN 3,184.21
4 LOSE 7,781.33 54 WIN 3,439.77
5 LOSE 6,940.33 55 LOSE 3,032.93
6 WIN 7,571.51 56 WIN 3,273.37
7 LOSE 6,751.50 57 LOSE 2,883.17
8 WIN 7,363.79 58 WIN 3,108.63
9 WIN 8,037.30 59 WIN 3,356.63
10 WIN 8,778.18 60 LOSE 2,958.11
11 WIN 9,593.13 61 WIN 3,191.06
12 LOSE 8,570.96 62 WIN 3,447.31
13 WIN 9,365.20 63 WIN 3,729.18
14 WIN 10,238.85 64 WIN 4,039.23
15 LOSE 9,152.11 65 LOSE 3,572.45
16 WIN 10,004.46 66 WIN 3,866.83
17 WIN 10,942.05 67 WIN 4,190.66
18 WIN 11,973.39 68 LOSE 3,708.73
19 LOSE 10,713.19 69 LOSE 3,275.00
20 WIN 11,721.65 70 LOSE 2,884.64
21 LOSE 10,486.63 71 LOSE 2,533.32
22 LOSE 9,375.10 72 WIN 2,723.79
23 LOSE 8,374.73 73 WIN 2,933.31
24 LOSE 7,474.40 74 LOSE 2,577.12
25 LOSE 6,664.10 75 WIN 2,771.97
26 WIN 7,267.65 76 WIN 2,986.30
27 WIN 7,931.55 77 LOSE 2,624.81
28 WIN 8,661.85 78 WIN 2,824.43
29 LOSE 7,732.81 79 WIN 3,044.02
30 LOSE 6,896.66 80 LOSE 2,676.76
31 LOSE 6,144.14 81 WIN 2,881.57
32 LOSE 5,466.86 82 LOSE 2,530.55
33 LOSE 4,857.32 83 LOSE 2,214.64
34 LOSE 4,308.73 84 LOSE 1,930.31
35 LOSE 3,814.99 85 LOSE 1,674.42
36 WIN 4,133.63 86 LOSE 1,444.12
37 WIN 4,484.14 87 LOSE 1,236.85
38 WIN 4,869.69 88 LOSE 1,050.30
39 WIN 5,293.80 89 LOSE 882.41
40 LOSE 4,701.56 90 WIN 907.80
41 WIN 5,108.85 91 WIN 935.71
42 LOSE 4,535.11 92 WIN 966.43
43 WIN 4,925.76 93 WIN 1,000.21
44 LOSE 4,370.32 94 WIN 1,037.37
45 LOSE 3,870.43 95 LOSE 870.77
46 LOSE 3,420.53 96 LOSE 720.84
47 LOSE 3,015.62 97 WIN 730.06
48 WIN 3,254.32 98 WIN 740.20
49 WIN 3,516.89 99 WIN 751.37
50 LOSE 3,102.34 100 LOSE 613.37