Study on Optimization of Industry Structure in Xinxiang City

LU Qiong WANG Xiqin1 LIU Jiangfan School of Natural Resources and Environment, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China wxiqin@ruc.edu.cn Abstract This paper proposed an approach of optimizing the industry structure. An optimizing model was built with the goals as minimum pollutants discharge, maximum gross industry output, and constraints as industrial water consumption, waste water discharge, pollutants and pollution treatment investment. This paper takes Xinxiang City as the pilot case to predict its economic development objective. On the base of the analysis of current industrial pollution and the forecasting scheme Continuity scheme in Xinxiang, it develops three supposed scenarios. In the three scenarios of following current programming scheme, technical improvement and increased environmental capacity, the industry structure was optimized for 2010, 2020 and 2030. After the optimization, industry structures were adjusted which caused different water use and pollutants discharge in each scenario. Compared with that in continuity scheme, the gross industrial output in the three supposed scenarios would be 8%-52% more in 2010, 2020 and 2030. Industrial water use would decrease 6%-35%, COD and NH3-N discharge would decrease 50%-80% and 36%-82% respectively. The industry optimization is an important approach to foundational control in water pollution control and water environmental protection in Xinxiang City. Key words industry structure , water environment, optimize, Xinxiang city, COD, NH3-N

1 Introduction
Water environment pollution is one of the important constraints of economic development in China, and the structural pollution is main cause. Haihe River Basin is the social and economic development center of China and it is on the industrialization stage. Therefore, the industry structure in Haihe River Basin will be faced with the double issues of rationalization and advancement. On the one hand, the conflicts between industrial development and environmental pollution should be solved, and on the other hand, the industry structure should be improved. In China, some research has been taken in industry structure optimization on the basis of water environmental protection. Liu et.al(1989) built a multi-objective programming model with 7 chemical industrial as the decision variable, and the main pollutants discharge and the main resource as the constraints. Wang et al (2000) took the quantitative systematic analytic approach to built an industry optimization model in regional water environmental and economic system. Zhang et.a l(2000) analyzed the industry structure in Huairou County, Beijing on the basis of regional nature resource and environmental capacity. Zhong (2003) proposed an approach of industry optimization and adjustment based on the efficient use of water resource. Research of Ma et.al(2003) demonstrates that using environmental capacity to adjust the industry structure is an efficient approach to reduce the press on environmental system in Hongta District, Yuxi City, Yunnan Province. Bao et al (2006) built a bidirectional optimization simulation model of basin water use structure and industry structure, and did a case study in Heihe River Basin. Xinxiang City, Henan Province is in the Zhangweinan sub-basin of Haihe River Basin. The proportion of 1st industry : 2nd industry : 3rd industry is 15.1 53.0 31.9. It is on the process of industrialization and has a serious and significant structural pollution. The papermaking and chemical industries are main
Funded by China GEF-Hai Basin Integrated Water and Environment Management Project, No. TF053183. Authors: WANG Xi-qin, Ph.D., vice professor of Renmin University of China, major in regional economic and environmental development. E-mail: wxiqin@ruc.edu.cn.

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pollution sources. Industrial pollutants discharge makes water resource shortage, water pollution and ecosystem degradation which threaten sustainable development in this region. Thereby, this paper analyzed the characteristic of industrial structural pollution and optimized the industry structure under different scenarios to support the industry structure adjustment in Xinxiang City.

2 Method for industrial structure optimization

2.1 Optimization approaches 1) Analyzing current status of water environment, identifying main pollutants and determining water environmental protection objectives; 2) Analyzing current status of industry structure and pollutants discharge, identifying determining water use coefficient and pollutants discharge coefficient, and according to that, predicting future economic development index, water use index and pollutants index, etc, then supply parameters for the industry structure optimization model; 3) Building a optimization model with maximum gross industry output, minimum pollutants discharge, industry water use amount, waste water discharge, pollutants and treatment investment as constraints; 4) Setting different scenarios and optimizing for schemes under different scenarios; 5) Analyzing the rationality and feasibility of each optimization scheme, recommending optimization scheme and proposing suggestions.( Figure 1). 2.2 Optimization model and constrained values The objective function consists of economic objective and environmental objective. The economic objective is maximum gross industry output. The environmental objective consists of minimum COD discharge and minimum NH3-N discharge. (CRAES, 2008) (1) When it maintains the water environment protection objective, the model seeks for maximum gross industry output:
max X = xi
i =1 n

(2) On the promise of economic development, this model seeks for reducing pollutants discharge and minimum COD discharge:

min I = bixi
i =1

(3) On the promise of economic development, this model seeks for reducing pollutants discharge and minimum NH3-N discharge:
n

min J = cixi
i =1

In the formula, X is gross industry output (104yuan), i is industry, x is output of industry (104yuan), and n is the number of industries. I is COD discharge(t), b is discharge coefficient of industrial COD (t/104yuan), J is NH3-N discharge(t), and c is discharge coefficient of industrial NH3-N( t/104yuan).

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Analyzing water environment quality

Analyzing economy and industry structure

Analyzing industry pollution situation

Industrial water consumption

Economic development and spatial distribution

Industrial pollutant load

Water quality Characteristics of industry structure

Characteristics of industrial pollutants discharge

Main pollution industries

Pollutants analysis

discharge

Water capacity

environmental

Predicting macro economy and industry structure

Predicting the pollutants discharging coefficient of industrial water

A multi-objective optimization model of industry structure Adjustment Scenarios interpretation and analysis

Industry adjustment recommendation Figure 1 Approach of industry structure optimization

Constraints of model are gross industry output, industrial water supply, waste water discharge, COD and NH3-N discharge, waster water treatment investment and etc. Constraint of gross industry output:

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X
i =1 n

R1

Where R1 is the gross industry output of planning year (104 yuan/a), other parameters are ditto. Constraint of industrial water consumption:

a x R
i i i =1

a Where i is the water use coefficient per unit output of i industry (104t/104yuan), and R 2 is the available industry water. Constraint of COD discharge:

ci is NH3-N discharge coefficient of industry i (t/104yuan), xi is the gross industry output of industry i , R4 is the permitted industrial NH3-N discharge.
Where

Where di is waste water discharge coefficient of industry i (104t/104yuan), R5 is total waste water discharge which is constrained by total water use and waste water production coefficient. Constraint of waste water treatment cost
n

Where ei is proportion of waste water treatment investment of its output in this year of industry i . R6 is the maximum industrial waste water treatment investment. Positive values and other constraints This model uses ideal-points method and gets solution by using MATLAB. Ideal-points method is to get optimum solutions of each objective under constraint conditions and to seek for proximate values of optimum solutions of each objective function as the optimum value of multi-objective programming through building evaluation function. 2.3 Scenarios design It sets 4 scenarios which are continuity scheme, programming scheme, technical improvement scheme and increased environmental capacity (See Table 1). The continuity scheme is the prediction according to current development speed and pollution discharge, and the others are optimization schemes. The feasibility and rationality of optimization schemes would be assessed by the comparison with continuity scheme.
Scheme Continuity scheme Programming Scheme Technical improvement Scheme Increased environmental capacity scheme Table 1 Different scenarios scheme design Description Current industry structure does not change and industry develops as current speed. The gross output of each industry, gross industry output, water consumption of each industry, pollutants discharge coefficients are programmed. Based on current technology level, the annual water consumption and pollutants discharge of each industry are programmed. According to that, the available industry water consumption and permitted pollutants discharge can be determined. Technical improvement is supposed to decrease the coefficient of water use and pollutant discharge of each industry. Suppose the environmental capacity increase through increased in-stream flow in the planning year, the permitted industrial pollutants discharge would be increased under the same environmental goal.

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b x
i =1

i i

R3

Where bi is the COD discharge coefficient of i industry (t/104yuan), and xi is gross industry output of industry i , R3 is the permitted industrial COD discharge. Constraint of NH3-N discharge:
n

cx
i i =1

R4

Constraint of waste water discharge:

n

dx
i =1

i i

R5

ex R
i i i =1

2.4 Setting constrained values of schemes Based on the current status of industry development and pollution, taking the balance of economy, resource, pollutants among industries, the technical improvement, the difficulties of technical innovation, financial cost into consideration, the constrained values of industry structure adjustment model are determined for each scenario. Table 2 is the constrained values of each scenario in Xinxiang City
Table 2 Constrained values of each scenario in Xinxiang City Constrained values Scheme 2010 2020 108yuan 733 1400 water

Constraint index

gross industrial output Available 104m3

2030 2500

industrial

Max permitted COD t

Technical improvement 16000 Increased environmental capacity 23000 Programming 3500 Max permitted discharge of Technical improvement 2450 NH3-N t Increased environmental capacity 4000 Programming 20000 Waste water discharge 104t Technical improvement Increased environmental capacity 25000

3 Results and discussion

3.1 Current status of industry structure and pollution In 2004, the gross output of main industries is 372108yuan, the first three industries of which are chemical fibers and textiles, electric machine and machine equipment. The total outputs of these three industries occupy 42.4% of gross output. In 2004, the industrial waste water discharge was 1.93108t, COD discharged was 5.96104t, and NH3-N discharged 0.64 104t, which are 64%, 65% and 60% of industrial and domestic pollutant discharge respectively. In Haihe River Basin, industrial COD and NH3-N occupied 44% and 41% of point-source pollution. The industrial water consumption, waste water discharge, COD discharge and NH3-N discharge of per ten thousand yuan gross industry output are 78m3, 52t, 16kg and 2kg respectively. In Haihe River Basin, the numbers are 64m3, 14.46t, 3.80kg and 0.42kg. After the analysis of pollutants contribution rate, figure 2 illustrates the main polluting industries are papermaking, chemical and medicinal industry. Total output of this three industries only occupy 20.6% of gross industrial output, but the COD, NH3-N discharged 75.9% and 88.6% of total quantity respectively. Especially, the papermaking industry only produces 6% output, but it discharges 67% of total COD and 45% of total NH3-N.The results above show serious structural pollution in Xinxiang City.

02

NH3-N capacity t

COD capacity t

discharge

of

Programming 30000 Technical improvement Increased environmental capacity 40000 Calculated value 9590 Increased environmental capacity 13000 Calculated value 550 Increased environmental capacity 700 Programming 20000 15000 12000 20000 1800 1260 2160

9500 7500 13000 550 400 700

ch em ic al lm at er ia el ls ec t ri ch cp em ow ic er al fi b er tex til e el ec t ro fo ni od cm an uf ac tu m re et el al ec pr tri od ca uc au la ts to nd m m ob ec ile ha an ni d ca co l m ar po ch ne ite nt ctu s re m m ec ate ha ni ria ca ls le qu ip m en m t in ew as hi ng m ed ica

m ak in g

Figure 2 Contribution rates of industrial output and pollutants

3.2 Optimization results Selecting year of 2004 as the base year, and the year of 2010, 2020, 2030 as the predicting year, the objective values and constrained values in table 2 are input to the model as parameters to predict and optimize each scheme in each year (See Table 3 ). Results show that under the three optimizing scenarios, the gross industrial outputs are 11%-52% more than it in continuity scheme in 2010. The water consumption would decrease 10%-30%, COD would decrease 50%-56%, and NH3-N would decrease 49%-53%. In 2020, the gross industry output in technical improvement scheme and increased environmental capacity scheme are 13% and 26% more than that in continuity scheme. In the programming scheme, the gross industry output would decrease 21%. The water consumption would decrease 6%-30%, the COD discharge would decrease 55%-69%, and the NH3-N discharge would decrease 36%-56%. In 2030, the gross industry output in the technical improvement scheme and increased environmental capacity scheme would be 8% and 23% more than that in continuity scheme. The gross industry output in programming scheme would decrease 2%. The water consumption would be decreased by 15% under the programming scheme and technical improvement scheme and increase 6.8% under the increased environmental capacity scheme. COD discharge would decrease 70%-80%. NH3-N discharge would decrease 69%-82%.
Table3 Main index of optimization schemes under different scenarios in 2010,2020,2030 Gross Waste Treatment Water industrial Scheme COD/t NH3-N/t water use investment output /108yuan /108t /108m3 8 /10 yuan Current 372 2.894 59624 6437 1.934 Continuity 2010 Programming Technical improvement Increased environmental capacity Continuity 2020 Programming Technical improvement Increased environmental capacity 733 813 850 1120 1584 1414 1800 2000 4.34 3 2.84 3.93 4.21 3 2.95 3.99 31637 14068 15495 15554 33438 15000 10863 10491 1975 937 942 1017 2766 1677 1227 1783 1.29 1.11 0.77 1.38 1.61 1.37 1.72 1.76 8.9 9.67 9.57 9.46 18.9 20 15.09 19.65

year 2004

N-3HN

DOC

retawetsaW lairtsudnI

noitpmusnoC retaW lairtsudnI

12

stuptuO lairtsudnI

pa pe r

ot he r

0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

C o n t r i b u t i o n r a t e / %

Continuity 2030 Programming Technical improvement Increased environmental capacity

2836 2800 3083 3500

3.52 3.02 3 3.76

29952 6980 6280 8820

2214 540 400 690

2.3 2.02 2 2.5

37.99 19.23 23.83 29.2

Taking the year of 2020 as example, the index after optimization under each schemes are analyzed. 1 Programming scheme. The development of paper making industry, medicinal industry and mining are slowed down. The electronic industry and others are encouraged and the annual growth rates are 21.1% and 22.1%. Except the food industry, growths rates of other industries are 1.4%-3.9% lower than prediction. 2 Technical improvement scheme. Industries of electronic products, machine equipment, metal products and mining develop rapidly and the development speeds are among 17%-23%. The paper making industry decreases a little. Other industries develop as the predicted trends. 3 Increased environmental capacity scheme. The papermaking industry, chemical industry, electric power, chemical fibers and textiles and machine equipment reduce and annual decrease speed is 0.8%-4.3%. The electronic industry, metal products, and food industry increase 17%-25.8%. The other industries increase 1%-9%. Taking the index in 2020 as an example, the variation of index under different scenarios of different schemes is analyzed and then to analyze the rationality of each scheme (Table 4). The table 4 shows that under the increased environmental capacity scheme, the gross industry output increases most, pollutants discharge reduces much, the water consumption increase a little, and the treatment investment increases 3.9%. Compared with other schemes, this scheme has higher rationality and it is recommended

4 Conclusions
(1) If the industry develops in current speed and the industry structure is not been adjusted, the water resource carrying capacity and environmental capacity would be exceeded enormously, and industrial water consumption would occupy the ecological water and domestic water continually, which would lead more serious environment degradation. For this reason, its an efficient approach to adjust and optimize the industry structure to keep the sustainable economic growth and water pollutants decrease in Xinxiang City. (2) Taking the recommended optimization plan for 2020 as the example, for the industries development, paper industry and chemical industry should be limited seriously in Xinxiang City. To 2020, the paper making industry and chemical industry should be decreased by 10.1% and 9% respectively. At the same time, the electronic industry and metal industry should be developed and the annual growth rates should be 15.8% and 11.3% more than that in the forecasting plan. Therefore, to implement inter-basin water diversion and increase the in-stream flow to increase water environmental capacity, combining with the

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Table 4 Variation range of different index under 3 scenarios compared with continuity scheme in 2020 Treatment Gross industry Water use COD variation NH3-N investment Optimization output variation variation variation % Scheme % variation % % % Programming scheme -21 +29 -55 -39 +5.8 Technical +13 +30 -67 -55 -2.0 improvement scheme Increased +6 -68 -35 +3.9 evironmental capacity +26 scheme -mean decreasing and + means increasing

industry structure adjustment is one of the efficient ways to control water pollution in Xinxiang City.

References
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