Assessing the Costs and Benefits of HSDPA

Scope
Benefits of HSDPA g Market applications g Multi User Gain g HSDPA deployment strategy g Cost analysis and business case example
g

What are the Benefits of HSDPA?

Richer Applications
Lower down link packet delay improvement for streaming, background and interactive applications

Higher Data Rates

Higher Capacity
2x more subscribers and 5x throughput (10 Mbps vs. 2 Mbps)

Peak Data Rates up to 3.714 Mbps per user

HSDPA further reduces the cost per megabyte

3

Empowering UMTS with HSDPA

g

The three pillars of UMTS are 2G/3G Continuity of Service, Multi-Media Support (CS + PS in the same time), and High Data Rates
n

The highest data rate with UMTS Rel99 is 384 kbps and some Operators are capping this radio bearer in order to preserve the cell capacity
Higher Data Rates Higher Capacity

A complete UMTS Solution requires HSDPA/HSUPA

n n

Clear Differentiation from 2G and a Strong Respond to 1x EV/DO Lower Higher capacity (At least twice more subscribers per cell) Latency

HSDPA is the seamless broadband access

n

Trigger the usage explosion for the Consumer Market by leveraging the end user experience of fixed broadband (ADSL, Cable, etc) Provide a virtual office environment everywhere for the Business Market
10ms Un-efficient usage ! UnCode multiplexing Big shared pipe pipe

UMTS Rel99

2ms

HSDPA

Time multiplexing
4

Peak User Data Rates (bps)

Theoretical
14.4M

7.2M

384k

2.4M 154k

3.1M

3.6M 2M

3.6M

CDMA 1x

1xEV-DO

1xEV-DV

WCDMA

HSDPA

HSDPA

Enhanced UE

UE Cat. 6

EDGE

Why HSDPA?
n

To deliver wireless broadband services while preserving the capacity of the Cell for Voice and Video Telephony To boost usage in business sectors by providing a virtual office environment anywhere and to trigger usage in the consumer market by leveraging the end-user experience of fixed broadband

Faster downlink and more capacity in cell

6

HSDPA Market Applications

Business Market Consumer Market

HSDPA

Web Browsing, Corporate VPN, Sales Force Automation

Music, Gaming,

More ARPU + 50% of Usage ! Much More New Subscribers

More Services Higher Bandwidth Lower Latency

Infotainment On Demand, Video Streaming

More ARPU + 25% of Usage ! New Subscribers

HSDPA will increase data usage!

7

A Shorter Round Trip Delay

Round Trip Delay is significant in systems that require twoway interactive communication such as Voice over IP, MultiUser Gaming which requires less than 100 ms g Small Round Trip Delay is also critical for ACK/NACK data systems where the RTD directly affects the throughput n High TCP throughput requires RTD < 100 ms
g g

HSDPA key delays n DL TTI = 2 ms reduces RTD (R99 TTI = 10 ms, 20 ms,...) n Capacity Request/Allocation over Iub increases RTD n Smaller Iub DL framing delay (2 ms) reduces RTD More Interactive Applications & Higher TCP Throughput
8

Impact of RTD on E2E Throughput

Simulations, user Cat 6, AWGN

RTD < 100 ms required for high HSDPA throughput

9

HSDPA Drive Calls

g

Drive test in Montigny (Paris suburb), 4 km trip

n n n n n

Between 20m and 1000 m from the Node B Suburban area Same drive test done 4 times Around 15 min each Speed between 0 and 50 km/h Category 12 Rake receiver, 8 fingers, resolution Tc/8

Qualcomm HSDPA test mobile

n n

1 cell only, 1 UE, HSDPA only traffic g FTP download, file size 50 Mb (full queue)
g

10

HSDPA throughput & RX power

1200 1000

Category 12 n Max throughput 1.44 Mb/s n QPSK only n 1 RX n Rake receiver: 8 fingers, resolution Tc/8
n

HSDPA throughput

UE

800

600

400

200

-30

50

100

150

200

250

The throughput depends highly on the received power.

AGC RX power (dBm)

-40

-50

-60

Thanks to the real time knowledge of radio conditions for each user, the Node B matches the exact throughput to the available badwidth !

-70

-80

-90

-100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

11

Multi-User Diversity gain

Proportional Fair Scheduling principle 5 0

g Transmitting

to users with favorable short term radio conditions can increase significantly the throughput compared to a Round-Robin scheduler. g The obtained gain is called MultiUser Diversity Gain (MUG). g The MUG increases as the cell load increases. The probability to have one user with very good radio conditions is high.

-5 Fast Fading amplitude (dB) -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 User 1 User 2

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1 1.2 Time (sec)

1.4

1.6

1.8

User 2 scheduled

User 1 scheduled

A user is not scheduled if in deep fading !

12

Multi-User Diversity Gain

Multi-User Gain - Single - 3 km/h 120 100

MUG %

The MUG decreases when

n n n

1 RX 2 RX 80

60

The #RX increases The UE speed increases The channel delay spread increases

40

20

10

15 #users per cell

20

25

30

Multi-User Gain - Pedestrian_a - 3 km/h 80 70 60 50 MUG % 40 30 20 10 0 1 RX 2 RX

Up to 100% gain over the Round-Robin & R99 DCH PS RAB.

10

15 #users per cell

20

25

30

13

Partner Orange Israel

Partner
g

Number of Subscribers: n Total > 2,200,000 n GPRS > 400,000 n UMTS > 20,000 NW size n 5 main switching locations n 2200 2G BTSs / 1200 UMTS NodeBs

Vendors: n GSM/GPRS CN - Ericsson n BSS - Ericsson - 68%, Nokia - 32% n UMTS - Nortel Average Drop Call Rate: 0.8% n (Main cities<0.7%)

UMTS commercial launch: 1/12/04

The Cellular Market in Israel

Operation Start Number of subscribers Market Technology share

Partner Cellcom Pelephone MIRS

1999 1995 1986 1997

2,202 2,391 2,070 290

32% 34% 30% 4%

GSM UMTS TDMA, GSM EDGE,UMTS NAMPS, CDMA 1X EVDO iDEN

14

UMTS rollout in Partner

UMTS g Area coverage = 22% g Pop. Coverage = 91% g Plan to finalize country coverage by EOY 2005 (~1700 Sites)
GSM/GPRS g full country and population coverage

Israel
Population Area 6.86M 21,671 Sq. Km.

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Deployment Strategies
The Dimensions of HSDPA deployment strategy
g

Coverage targets
n n n n

In Building solutions Hot Spots / Zones Preferred Areas Country-wide coverage Shared with R99 and/or HSDPA dedicated Need to provide user experience everywhere? Need to expand my PS capacity?

g g

Carrier strategy
n

Capacity or coverage driven rollout

n n

g g

Infrastructure and Terminals roadmap Timeline

16

Where to deploy HSDPA?

Hot Spots Preferred Areas In building Solutions CoutryWide

Revenue / Site

Cost of deployment

17

Deployment Strategies
Identifying the potential Hot Spots / Zones
n

Expected high PS traffic areas (e.g. Urban office areas, Suburban high-mid class areas etc.) R99 Resource usage monitoring

82nd carrier deployed 8Node B with expanded CEM capacity (e.g. CEM128 or higher) 8High power usage (used for PS) In building solutions 8Public high usage sites like Hospitals, Universities etc. 8Business Prioritized customers sites.

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Deployment Strategies
Carrier implementation strategy (2 carriers operator)
HSDPA Load

F1 = R99+HSDPA

F1 = R99 F2 = HSDPA

R99 load

F1 = R99
F2 = R99+HSDPA

F1 = R99+HSDPA F2 = R99+HSDPA

Assumption 1 MCPA per carrier HSDPA dimensioning indicates no foreseen need for 2nd carrier in up to 5 years Mobility considerations should be included
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Network upgrade to HSDPA

Is Macro Sites densification effective?
n n

Can it improve end user experience in HSDPA ? Can it improve throughput?

Macro site densification will not improve C/I on cell edge. However, adding sites in coverage holes can always help
20

HSDPA Vs Network Design

Release99 with design for PS64

HSDPA

same coverage
PS IB @ 64 kb/s PS IB @ 128 kb/s 0.4 dB 5% 0.3 dB 3% PS IB @ 384 kb/s 0.3 dB 3% 0.2 dB 2%

DPDCH DPCCH

UE Tx power loss 1 trans CQI_ACK Coverage loss

0.6 dB 7% 0.3 dB 3%

HS-DPCCH

UE Tx power loss 2 trans CQI_ACK Coverage loss

DPDCH DPCCH

Network design @ I/B@64kbps, no major HS-DPCCH impact !

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Deployment Strategies
Timeline considerations
n n

Forecast for PS capacity needs Competitive environment

n n n n

8Competitors capabilities (EV/DO) 8Technology leadership 8Competitors deployment of HSDPA Opportunity to develop new market segments Is there a need to improve PS performance Terminal availability Infrastructure availability (which capabilities?)

22

Deployment Strategies
The Competitive environment
Mobility
HSDPA 1x EV-DO
gFull gFull gFull gFull gFull gFull gNone gNone

g14

Peak Network Speed

Latency
gLow gLow gHigh gHigh gHigh gHigh gLow gLow gLow gLow

Mbps Mbps Mbps Kbps Kbps Kbps Mbps Mbps

Relative Cost to deliver a g1 MB

g1 g3 g3 g7 g20 g0.5 g0.25 gN/A gN/A

g2.5 g2.0 g307 g384 g115 g1.5 g3.0 g11 g54

Broadband Performance

WCDMA 1x RTT EDGE

HSDPA Mobility Competitive Cost Structure

GPRS(CS 12) DSL Cable

WiFi Hotspot gLimited WiMAX

gLimited

Mbps Mbps

Source: Motorola 23

Deployment Strategies
Infrastructure vendors Roadmaps
First commercial release

2005 5 codes/ user

2006 >5 codes / user2007

Testing/Integration Activities

Second commercial release

Terminal vendors Roadmaps

First Handsets up to 3.6M

First Data Cards up to 3.6M

Commercial release of up to Cat 6 HSDPA terminals

2005

2006 5 codes / user 2007

First chipsets and IOT with RAN vendors

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Business Case
Cost Factors
g

Node B
n

HW upgrade: 8 additional CEM (HS-enabled)

8 Additional carrier (for very high HSDPA traffic case)

n n

SW upgrade Savings in HW Can save upgrades vs. R99 (traffic dependant)

8 PS traffic increase requires CEM / 2nd carrier upgrades 8 HSDPA being more efficient may save CAPEX

Additional Node Bs? 8Not for outdoor coverage, if network is planned for PS64 and up 8Indoor solutions YES specially for business costumers, hot spots etc.
Expected increase in Iub capacity per Node B Backbone PS traffic increase

Backhaul / Backbone
n n

PS Core and IT servers need to be scaled

25

Business Case
Will HSDPA bring higher revenue than R99?
g g

Throughput
n

Providing higher throughput per user

higher traffic per user

Applications
n n n n

Enhanced portal Larger downloads >2-3 minutes (MP3, videos, etc) Very high quality streaming (over HS-RABs) Mobile TV E.g. Differentiating (QoS, Apps) HSDPA from R99 users (HSDPA = higher cost ?) Could maximize skimming effect (more ARPU for early adaptors, high end users etc)

Pricing strategy
n

26

Business Case
Revenue factor = ARPU
g

ARPU increase from GPRS to UMTS R99 UMTS R99 vs. GPRS Subs Ratio Data volume Ratio ARPU Ratio 5% 231% More than 100%

ARPU increase for HSDPA vs R99 is possible, but scaled down: n Not such a big step like GPRS to UMTS was
n n

Slow market adaptation to advanced high speed applications Applications?

27

Business Case
HSDPA the demand
6,000,000 0.90 0.80 5,000,000 0.70

4,000,000

0.60 HSDPA penetration rate %

No. of Users

0.50 3,000,000 0.40

2,000,000

0.30

0.20 1,000,000 0.10

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0.00

3G Cat 6 users Cat 10 users R99 users HSDPA penetration rate

Figures are example only.

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Business Case
Business Case methodology
HSDPA Additional Revenues
HSDPA ARPU HSDPA penetration rate

HSDPA Implementation Costs (Capex + Opex)

Node B SW+HW upgrades [50%] Backhaul Transmission [44%] Backbone Transmission [2%] PS Core upgrades [4%]

Balance

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Thank You for your attention!

30

Backup slides

31

Impacts on Backhauling
Maximum expected Traffic per Node-B Up to 2 UEs Category 6 < 16Mbps per Node-B < 8Mbps Per Node-B Air 3,7 Mbps / Cell Iub 1,6Mbps / Cell Iub 4,8Mbps / Cell Air 14Mbps / Cell Introduction of advanced UE receivers 30-60 Mbps per Node-B

Theoretical Worst case in some Hot Spots

Air 7,4Mbps / Cell Iub 9,1Mbps / Cell

New transmission solutions Ethernet Services, Fiber, xDSL or Microwaves

5 SF16 Codes

10 SF16 Codes

15 SF16 Codes

Broadband Backhaul Solution in a Bandwidth Demanding Access

32