news CorporaLlon ls a dlverslfled medla conglomeraLe wlLh operaLlons ln Lelevlslon broadcasLlng moLlon plcLure and Lelevlslon programlng and prlnL medla publlcaLlon nWSA's flnanclal resulLs are polsed Lo exceed sLreeL esLlmaLes ln l?12 drlven by sLrong growLh ln recurrlng subscrlpLlon based revenue sLreams ln lLs Cable and 8roadcasL 1v segmenLs ln Lhe wake of Lhe news of Lhe World hacklng scandal nWSA's board has made a radlcal change ln lLs caplLal allocaLlon sLraLegy and ls reLurnlng slgnlflcanL amounLs of caplLal back Lo shareholder's for Lhe flrsL Llme ever 1he sLock ls exLremely undervalued compared Lo lLs peers earnlngs growLh raLe and own hlsLorlcal valuaLlon l expecL Lhe comblnaLlon of sLrong flnanclal resulLs and dlmlnlshlng publlclLy of Lhe news of Lhe World scandal Lo enable shares Lo reLurn Lo Lhelr lnLrlnslc value
Cab|e networks Cable saLelllLe broadcasLlng accounLs for 24 of nWSA's revenue and 33 of operaLlng lncome 1he segmenL ls flrlng on all cyllnders raLlngs are sLrong adverLlslng sales are marLlally ouLgrowlng Lhe markeL and operaLlng lncome ls growlng ln Lhe mldLeens AfflllaLe fees accounL for 70 segmenL revenue growLh ls polsed Lo acceleraLe ln 2012 wlLh lox news up for a ma[or renewal cycle and lnLernaLlonal afflllaLe fees conLlnulng Lo grow 20 lox news ls consldered a musL have channel especlally durlng a presldenLlal elecLlon ApproxlmaLely Z of lox news' dlsLrlbuLlon agreemenLs are up for renewal over Lhe nexL several quarLers and raLes are expecLed Lo lncrease by 30 (CvC seL precedenL lasL year) ln C?11 lox news wlll generaLe 873m ln afflllaLe revenue Lhese new afflllaLe agreemenLs wlll boosL LhaL flgure by $220m ln C?12 wlLh nearly all proceeds falllng rlghL Lo Lhe boLLom llne
Cable adverLlslng revenue ls also expecLed Lo show falrly robusL growLh even ln a slugglsh economy 1oLal adverLlslng expendlLures as a percenLage of Cu are sLlll runnlng 3 below Lhelr hlsLorlcal Lrend llne afLer belng cuL slgnlflcanLly durlng Lhe 20082009 recesslon AddlLlonally Cable 1v conLlnues Lo be a share galner ln Lerms of adverLlser's overall medla budgeLs Medla forecasLlng flrm Magna Clobal expecLs naLlonal Cable 1v adverLlslng spendlng Lo lncrease 3 ln 2012 and 7 ln 2013 nWSA's unlque properLles wlll allow Lhe company Lo conLlnue Lo ouLgrow Lhe markeL AdverLlslng for sporLs programlng (lox SporLs) ls exLremely sLrong because lL ls one of Lhe few varleLles of mass audlence programlng LhaL people do noL uv8 and nWSA's lx channel has sLeadlly cllmbed up Lhe raLlngs charL and ls now Lhe #3 channel for males aged 1844
upsl de/uownsl de 3608 8eta 126 Ups|de 2300 $ Ga|n 436 1arget kat|ona|e 14x l?13 esL LS Downs|de 1300 $ Loss (126) Downs|de kat|ona|e 12x 11M LS l?09 l?10 l?11 l?12 l?13 r|ce 1717 $ Sa|es 30423 32778 33403 34209 33930 Shares 2612 DCn Sa|es 30423 32778 33403 34793 36363 Market Cap 43629 Lb|tda 4778 3728 6238 6982 76661 Cash 13796 DCn Lb|tda 4778 3728 6238 7360 8282 Debt 13446 LS 082 $ 108 $ 123 $ 138 $ 171 $ Net debt (3300) DCn LS 066 $ 103 $ 119 $ 149 $ 182 $ LV 432787 DCn ICI 1147 2940 3300 3690 4310 Short |nterest 18 Cata|ysts l?09 l?10 l?11 l?12 l?13 uCP /L 239x 163x 144x 116x 93x uCP Lv/Lbl Lda 93x 79x 72x 62x 33x uCP lCl yl el d 26 66 74 82 101 (01x) (01x) (01x) (00x) (00x) SLreeL lorecasLs val uaLl ons uCP neL debL/Lbl Lda 8roadcast 1V 8roadcasL 1v accounLs for 14 of nWSA's revenue and operaLlng proflL 8eLransmlsslon fees are emerglng as an underappreclaLed hlghmargln second revenue sLream Lo adverLlslng revenues Slmllarly Lo afflllaLe fees wlLh cable 1v channels broadcasLers are demandlng MSC's Lo pay monLhly fees for Lhe rlghL Lo alr conLenL lox blacklng ouL Cablevlslon cusLomers durlng Lhe 2010 World Serles was a very publlc example of Lhe power conLenL provlders have over MSCs Lo exLracL exLra paymenLs under very conservaLlve assumpLlons Lhese re Lransmlsslons agreemenLs should add an lncremenLal $300m Lo operaLlng proflLs ln C?12 and $600m Lo operaLlng proflLs ln C?13
1he longLerm opporLunlLy ls much greaLer Lhan many belleve nWSA execuLlves have publlcally sLaLed LhaL Lhey belleve lox ls worLh close Lo $3/subscrlber/monLh 1here ls precedenL for Lhls Loo ulsney charges $4/subscrlber/monLh Lhelr mosL popular program ls Monday nlghL looLball whlch has a peak audlence of 14 13m vlewers lox's hlL show Amerlcan ldol has a peak audlence of 23m vlewers allyearround
Cap|ta| returns Cne of Lhe blggesL knocks on nWSA over Lhe years has been managemenL use of caplLal 8aLher Lhan reLurn lL Lo shareholders CLC 8uperL Murdoch has rouLlnely made quesLlonable acqulslLlons ln Lhe wake of Lhe news of Lhe World hacklng scandal and subsequenL fall Lhrough of Lhe 8S? deal Lhere has been a ma[or change ln managemenL's Lone Lowards caplLal allocaLlon nWSA auLhorlzed a $38 sLock buyback and pledged Lo compleLe lL wlLhln one year So far Lhey have held Lrue Lo Lhls promlse nWSA boughL back $138 worLh of sLock ln l1C12 alone ManagemenL has also sLaLed LhaL Lhey are comforLable wlLh Lhe asseL mlx Lhey currenLly have and do noL lnLend Lo make any ma[or acqulslLlons
Cn Lhelr l4C11 conference call nWSA Lold lnvesLors LhaL Lhey would llke Lo have a leverage raLlo of 223x L8l1uA and $238 of cash on Lhe balance sheeL wlLhln Lwo Lo Lhree years 1he company currenLly has a gross debL Lo L8l1uA leverage of 24x and $1388 of cash on Lhe balance sheeL l expecL Lhe company Lo generaLe $378 of cash ln l?12 and $438 ln l?13 nWSA can comforLably reLurn over $208 of cash Lo shareholders (44 of currenL markeL caplLallzaLlon) and sLlll meeL Lhelr balance sheeL LargeLs
Retransmission opportunity 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Pay TV subs 97.1 96.6 96.1 95.6 95.1 94.6 % coverage 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% O&O Subscribers 36.9 36.7 36.5 36.3 36.1 36.0 % paying retransmission 10.0% 30.0% 62.0% 90.0% 100.0% 100.0% O&O retrans subs 4.2 11.2 22.4 38.4 41.4 41.4 Monthly fee/sub 0.50 $ 0.60 $ 0.75 $ 0.90 $ 1.00 $ 1.00 $ O&O retrans revenue 25.1 80.3 201.7 415.1 497.3 497.3 Affiliate subscribers 60.2 59.9 59.6 59.3 59.0 58.7 % paying retransmission 0.0% 15.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 75.0% Affiliate retrans subs - 9.0 29.8 35.6 41.3 44.0 Monthly fee/sub (95% of O&O) 0.48 $ 0.57 $ 0.71 $ 0.86 $ 0.95 $ 0.95 $ Revenue split w/ local network 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% Fox Network fee/sub 0.24 $ 0.29 $ 0.36 $ 0.43 $ 0.48 $ 0.48 $ AffiIiate retrans revenue - 30.7 127.3 182.4 235.3 250.9 TotaI retransmission revenue 25.1 111.0 329.1 597.6 732.6 748.1 IncrementaI operating income 25.1 111.0 329.1 597.6 732.6 748.1 Incremental margin 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Va|uat|on news Corp ls cheap on boLh a hlsLorlc basls and a relaLlve basls 1he company Lrades aL a /L of [usL 10x my C?12 esLlmaLe desplLe an expecLed LS growLh raLe of 30 Cver Lhe lasL 3 years nWSA's forward L has averaged 14x forward LS nWSA's currenL /L ls even more preposLerous when one conslders Lhe buslness mlx shlfL nWSA has undergone over Lhe pasL 3 years 1he company has made lLs selfmuch less cycllcal ln 2003 Lhe company generaLed 30 of lLs revenues from adverLlslng (cycllcal) and only 13 of revenues from recurrlng subscrlpLlon based revenue sLreams (afflllaLe fees reLransmlsslon ecL) nWSA's revenue mlx has slnce shlfLed Lo 33 adverLlslng revenues and 41 subscrlpLlon revenues whlch wlll enable earnlngs and cash flows Lo be much more reslllenL ln Lhe face of an economlc downLurn
arge Cap Media CY12 CY12 CY13 CY12 CY13 VaIuation Mkt cap PE PEG PE EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA NWSA 45,629 $ 11.5x 0.7x 9.4x 7.0x 6.1x VA/B 26,362 $ 10.4x 0.9x 8.9x 7.5x 7.2x TWX 35,291 $ 11.1x 0.9x 9.8x 7.1x 6.7x CBS 17,618 $ 11.5x 0.6x 10.2x 6.7x 6.4x DS 68,654 $ 12.5x 0.8x 11.0x 7.4x 6.7x Average 11.4x 0.8x 9.9x 7.1x 6.6x