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Cube Land in California

Implementation in Bakersfield
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Bakersfield?
The Bakersfield Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a population of 800,458 making it the 63rd largest
metropolitan area in the USA.
The city's economy relies on agriculture, petroleum extraction and refining, and manufacturing.
Population growth of 40% since 2000.
Transportation and land use modeling are handled by the regions MPO: Kern Council of Governments
The Results
Citilabs successfully implemented Cube Land as an
integrated part of Kern Council of Governments (Kern
COG) modeling process.
Work was completed in 3 months and provides a
platform that can provide the economic detail required to
support SB375 planning.
Other MPOs (7) throughout the San Joaquin Valley
have now purchased Cube Land and are working to
bring land use in to their models as well.
History
Kern COG previously used UPlan, a rule-based land
use allocation model implemented in ArcGIS.
SB 375s Sustainable Communities Strategies demand
a different approach
Better integration between land use and transportation models.
Clearer understanding of how the costs/benefits of different
strategies are distributed among users.
What is SB 375?
Senate Bill 375
The core provision is a requirement for regional transportation
agencies to develop a Sustainable Communities Strategy in order to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions from driving.
The Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) is one component of
the existing Regional Transportation Plan (RTP).
The SCS will outline the regions plan for combining transportation
resources, such as roads and mass transit, with a realistic land use
pattern, in order to meet a state target for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions.
The strategy must take into account the regions housing needs,
transportation demands, and protection of resource and farm lands.
Actions
Despite a number of enhancements, KernCOGs UPlan
model:
Couldnt supply the economic detail necessary.
Wasnt sensitive to traffic congestion or travel choices therefore
couldnt be run with full feedback.
Bought Cube Land and worked with Citilabs to implement
a solution over 3 months.
Land Use Travel Demand
Households &
Employment
Congestion &
Accessibility
Cube Land is economic land-use modeling software
designed especially for interaction with transport planning
models
Finds an equilibrium between
supply (the built environment owned controlled by landlords and
developers) and
demand (households and firms looking to live and set up work)
Clear economic logic: bid-rent
Real estate properties are occupied by the household or firm
willing & able to pay most
Developers maximize profits when deciding what type of
buildings to provide
Subject to bounds, constraints, restrictions, and policy
assumptions
Fixed development & institutional uses
Limits on growth and re-development
Taxes, subsidies, and zoning rules
Vacant uses; undeveloped land
What is Cube Land?
What is Supply in Cube Land?
Housing Units (1 HH per)
Non-Residential Unit (1 firm per)
Grouped by real estate type:
Clustered by size, e.g. lot and floor
area
Relationship to general plan
categories and land use types:
permitted/prohibited uses
1. Residential High
2. Residential Medium
3. Residential Low
4. Residential Very Low
5. Mixed Use
6. Basic Production
7. Retail High
8. Retail Medium
9. Retail Service
10. Service Other
11. Service Warehouse
Land Use: Uplan Categories used as
Supply in Cube Land for Bakersfield
Used income / size categories in travel model as
household types in Cube Land
Describing Demand for Cube Land:
Households
Describing Demand for Cube Land:
Firms
From: http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/cbpnaic/cbpsect.pl
Data are also available for years from 1997-2007 & ZIP codes
A bid function relates consumer
willingness-to-pay for some real
estate property to characteristics of:
the property itself (lot size, floor space)
the neighborhood (accessibility,
schools, shops)
the consumer (income, lifestyle,
industry)
Bid rent theory Alonso (1964)
Different types of uses will compete
for land in various locations
The bid function quantifies tradeoffs
between values
What is a bid function?
UPlan intermediate attractiveness outputs are utilized.
Friction factors have been used to calculate accessibility
measures by zone and income level.
Attractiveness and Accessibility
Solution Algorithm
Fixed-point problem;
system of dependent
nonlinear equations
Highly efficient solution
approach
Equilibrium exists for a
real range of scale
parameters
Uniqueness confirmed
via numerical search

Reading and Validation of Input
Files
Definition of Parameters
Initialization of Variables (Iteration 0)
Initial bids with endogenous and exogenous
variables

Assessment of the supply and demand MNL

Global iterations (Iteration n)
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Number of real estate properties (e.g.
housing units) by type in each zone
Market rents by type and zone
(simulated real estate prices / values)
Built area by type of use in each
zone
Households and jobs by zonal
location and real estate property type
Bids of each consumer type on each
real estate property type and zone
Average household income by zone
Output data sets
As part of the project, a semi-automated estimation
and calibration application was created for
KernCOG.
Improvements can be easily implemented in the
future.
Validated regional parcel layer
Home interview survey
Detailed business location information
Automated Estimation for Calibration