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Climate Change in the American Mind: Americans Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes in November 2011
Interview dates: October 20, 2011 November 16, 2011. Interviews: 1,000 Adults (18+) Margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. NOTE: All results show percentages among all respondents, unless otherwise labeled. Totals may occasionally sum to more than 100 percent due to rounding. This study was conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, and was funded by the Surdna Foundation, the 11th Hour Project, and the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment. Principal Investigators: Anthony Leiserowitz, PhD Yale Project on Climate Change Communication School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University (203) 432-4865 anthony.leiserowitz@yale.edu Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD Center for Climate Change Communication Department of Communication, George Mason University (703) 993-1587 emaibach@gmu.edu Connie Roser-Renouf, PhD Center for Climate Change Communication Department of Communication, George Mason University (707) 825-0601 croserre@gmu.edu Nicholas Smith, PhD Yale Project on Climate Change Communication School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University (203) 432-1208 nicholas.smith@yale.edu Jay D. Hmielowski, PhD Yale Project on Climate Change Communication School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University (203) 432-0773 jay.hmielowski@yale.edu Cite as: Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Smith, N. & Hmielowski, J. D. (2011) Climate change in the American Mind: Americans global warming beliefs and attitudes in November 2011. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/ClimateBeliefsNovember2011.pdf
N291. In your opinion, over the past several years, has the weather in the U.S Gotten worse Gotten better Been about the same as normal Nov 2011 56 3 41 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
N30 35. Some people say that, due to growing populations and consumption worldwide, the United States is going to experience serious shortages of natural resources, while others disagree. When, if ever, do you think the United States will start to experience serious shortages of the following? Precious metals (e.g., gold, silver, platinum) Nov 2011 We are already experiencing shortages In about 10 years In about 25 years In about 50 years In 100 years Never Dont know Base metals (e.g., copper, lead, zinc) Nov 2011 We are already experiencing shortages In about 10 years In about 25 years In about 50 years In 100 years Never Dont know 10 8 8 9 10 10 45 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 13 8 8 7 9 14 43 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Items are listed in the order they were asked despite occasional non-sequential item numbers. Items not shown in this report are being released separately.
Uranium (for nuclear fuel) Nov 2011 We are already experiencing shortages In about 10 years In about 25 years In about 50 years In 100 years Never Dont know Oil Nov 2011 We are already experiencing shortages In about 10 years In about 25 years In about 50 years In 100 years Never Dont know Coal Nov 2011 We are already experiencing shortages In about 10 years In about 25 years In about 50 years In 100 years Never Dont know 11 9 7 9 15 13 36 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 26 9 9 10 11 8 26 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 8 8 6 5 7 10 57 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Natural gas Nov 2011 We are already experiencing shortages In about 10 years In about 25 years In about 50 years In 100 years Never Dont know 12 8 8 10 15 14 34 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
N36. How worried are you about our country running out of natural resources? Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried Nov 2011 9 45 35 12 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Q47. Recently, you may have noticed that global warming has been getting some attention in the news. Global warming refers to the idea that the worlds average temperature has been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more in the future, and that the worlds climate may change as a result. What do you think? Do you think that global warming is happening? Yes No Dont Know Nov 2011 63 17 20 May 2011 64 18 18 June 2010 61 18 21 Jan 2010 57 20 23 Nov 2008 71 10 19
People who answered yes to question 47 (i.e. those who believe global warming is happening) were asked the following question. Q48. How sure are you that global warming is happening? Extremely sure Very sure Somewhat sure Not at all sure Nov 2011 22 35 39 5 May 2011 21 33 40 6 June 2010 20 37 40 3 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 24 35 35 37 37 24 5 4
People who answered no to question 47 (i.e. those who do not believe global warming is happening) were asked the following question. Q49. How sure are you that global warming is not happening? Extremely sure Very sure Somewhat sure Not at all sure Nov 2011 21 37 37 5 May 2011 21 31 38 11 June 2010 20 31 44 4 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 28 26 31 28 34 38 7 8
Q50. Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is Nov 2011 50 33 8 6 2 1 May 2011 47 35 8 8 1 1 June 2010 50 34 6 7 1 1 Jan 2010 47 36 9 6 1 1 Nov 2008 57 32 4 5 1 1
Caused mostly by human activities Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment None of the above because global warming isnt happening Caused by both human activities and natural changes (volunteered) Other Dont know (volunteered) Q59. Which comes closer to your own view?
Most scientists think global warming is happening Most scientists think global warming is not happening There is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening Don't know enough to say Q60. How worried are you about global warming? Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried Nov 2011 12 42 31 15 May 2011 9 43 28 20
Nov 2011 41 3 39 18
May 2011 39 4 40 18
June 2010 34 4 45 17
June 2010 12 41 30 18
Jan 2010 12 38 27 23
Nov 2008 17 46 24 13
Some people say that global warming will harm each of the following. How much do think global warming will harm?
A great deal Plant and animal species Future generations of people People in developing countries People in other modern industrialized countries
People in the United States
A moderate amount 41 40 22
17 29
Only a little 19 22 28
Not at all 16 13 17
22
Don't know 10 10 15
15
15 16 18
17
15
11 24
29
27
23
17
21
16
18
10 9
0
24 21 28
27
21 25
18 17
100
You personally
50 Percent of Respondents
Q62. How much do you think global warming will harm you personally? A great deal A moderate amount Only a little Not at all Dont know Nov 2011 9 21 28 25 17 May 2011 11 18 28 25 18 June 2010 10 21 27 24 18 Jan 2010 14 23 22 31 11 Nov 2008 10 22 24 22 23
Q63. How much do you think global warming will harm your family? A great deal A moderate amount Only a little Not at all Dont know Nov 2011 10 24 27 21 18 May 2011 13 21 26 23 18 June 2010 11 25 24 21 19 Jan 2010 15 25 21 28 11 Nov 2008 11 24 23 19 23
Q64. How much do you think global warming will harm people in your community? A great deal A moderate amount Only a little Not at all Dont know Nov 2011 11 24 27 21 18 May 2011 12 22 26 22 18 June 2010 11 25 24 21 19 Jan 2010 15 27 22 24 12 Nov 2008 13 26 20 17 23
Q65. How much do you think global warming will harm people in the United States? A great deal A moderate amount Only a little Not at all Dont know Nov 2011 15 29 23 17 16 May 2011 16 26 23 17 18 June 2010 16 28 22 17 18 Jan 2010 22 29 16 22 12 Nov 2008 21 28 15 14 22
Q66. How much do you think global warming will harm people in other modern industrialized countries? A great deal A moderate amount Only a little Not at all Dont know Nov 2011 17 29 22 15 17 May 2011 17 25 23 17 19 June 2010 17 28 21 15 18 Jan 2010 23 29 16 19 13 Nov 2008 22 28 13 13 24
Q67. How much do you think global warming will harm people in developing countries? A great deal A moderate amount Only a little Not at all Dont know Nov 2011 22 28 17 15 18 May 2011 23 22 20 17 19 June 2010 22 28 17 15 18 Jan 2010 29 25 14 19 13 Nov 2008 31 22 11 13 24
Q68. How much do you think global warming will harm future generations of people? A great deal A moderate amount Only a little Not at all Dont know Nov 2011 40 22 13 10 16 May 2011 37 22 10 12 19 June 2010 39 22 11 12 16 Jan 2010 42 22 9 15 12 Nov 2008 44 17 7 10 22
Q69. How much do you think global warming will harm plant and animal species? A great deal A moderate amount Only a little Not at all Dont know Nov 2011 41 19 16 10 15 May 2011 39 19 12 13 18 June 2010 40 21 12 13 15 Jan 2010 43 19 11 15 12 Nov 2008 45 17 8 9 20
Q70. When do you think global warming will start to harm people in the United States? They are being harmed now In 10 years In 25 years In 50 years In 100 years Never Nov 2011 30 10 13 15 15 16 May 2011 32 12 13 12 11 20 June 2010 29 12 12 13 15 19 Jan 2010 25 12 14 13 13 23 Nov 2008 34 13 13 13 12 15
Q71. When do you think global warming will start to harm other people around the world? They are being harmed now In 10 years In 25 years In 50 years In 100 years Never Nov 2011 35 9 14 13 14 15 May 2011 34 12 12 12 11 19 June 2010 32 11 13 12 13 18 Jan 2010 28 13 12 12 13 22 Nov 2008 38 13 12 12 11 14
Q72. How much had you thought about global warming before today? A lot Some A little Not at all Nov 2011 15 30 39 16 May 2011 12 33 38 16 June 2010 18 37 32 13 Jan 2010 15 31 36 18 Nov 2008 20 35 33 12
Q73. How important is the issue of global warming to you personally? Extremely important Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Nov 2011 6 13 41 25 15 May 2011 7 15 38 25 14 June 2010 6 18 39 24 14 Jan 2010 5 15 38 23 20 Nov 2008 11 21 40 18 11
Q74. On some issues people feel that they have all the information they need in order to form a firm opinion, while on other issues they would like more information before making up their mind. For global warming, where would you place yourself? I need a lot more information I need some more information I need a little more information I do not need any more information Nov 2011 18 28 27 27 May 2011 22 30 25 23 June 2010 20 27 29 24 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 22 30 23 30 26 22 29 18
Q75. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? I could easily change my mind about global warming. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 4 34 36 27 May 2011 6 32 33 29 June 2010 5 32 36 27 Jan 2010 5 30 31 34 Nov 2008 5 28 34 34
Q135. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? Nov 2011 Humans can reduce global warming, and we are going to do so successfully Humans could reduce global warming, but its unclear at this point whether we will do whats needed Humans could reduce global warming, but people arent willing to change their behavior, so were not going to Humans cant reduce global warming, even if it is happening Global warming isnt happening 4 47 25 15 10 May 2011 5 41 25 18 11 June 2010 5 47 21 18 10 Jan 2010 10 45 17 15 13 Nov 2008 6 51 22 16 5
Q89 Q98. Worldwide/In the United States over the next 20 years, do you think global warming will cause more or less of the following, if nothing is done to address it?2 Intense hurricanes Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know Extinctions of plant and animal species Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know Worldwide 31 32 17 2 2 17 In the United States 31 25 20 1 3 22 Worldwide 28 29 20 1 2 20 In the United States 28 28 19 1 3 21
For questions 89 to 98, the sample was randomly split in half, with half of respondents assigned to questions about worldwide impacts, and the other half assigned to questions about impacts in the United States.
10
Famines and food shortages Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know Droughts and water shortages Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know People living in poverty Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know Refugees Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know Worldwide 33 29 17 2 2 17 In the United States 33 27 18 1 3 19 Worldwide 30 28 21 1 2 18 In the United States 26 27 22 1 2 22
Worldwide 27 23 29 1 2 19
Worldwide 24 21 29 2 2 22
11
Severe heat waves Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know Forest fires Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know Disease epidemics Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know Floods Many more A few more No difference A few less Many less Dont know
Worldwide 35 29 17 1 1 17
Worldwide 29 30 19 1 1 19
Worldwide 24 23 28 1 1 23
Worldwide 31 26 19 1 2 20
12
Some people say that global warming made each of the following events worse. How much do you agree or disagree?
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
22
45
18
15
18
47
19
16
16
44
24
16
16
44
23
17
Hurricane Irene
14
43
25
18
11
35
29
26
50
Percent of Respondents
100
N114 N119. Some people say that global warming made each of the following events worse. How much do you agree or disagree? Hurricane Irene Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 14 43 25 18 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
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The drought in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 18 47 19 16 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Mississippi River floods in the spring of 2011 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 16 44 24 16 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Record high summer temperatures in the U.S. in 2011 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 22 45 18 15 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Record snowfall in the U.S. in 2010 and 2011 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 16 44 23 17 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
The East Coast earthquake in the summer of 2011 Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 11 35 29 26 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
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Q54. Personally, how well informed do you feel you are about global warming? Very well informed Fairly well informed Not very well informed Not at all informed Nov 2011 8 49 36 8 May 2011 10 51 34 5 June 2010 12 49 35 3 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
How much do you trust the following as a source of information about global warming?
Strongly trust
Climate scientists
Somewhat trust 24
Somewhat distrust 50 46
57
Strongly distrust 19 30
28
8 14
7
Your primary care doctor Other kinds of scientists Television weather reporters Your local public heath department
10
8
6 5 36
52 56 40 50 Percent of Respondents
30 28 22
12 12
100
15
How much do you trust the following as a source of information about global warming?
Strongly trust Somewhat trust 38 Somewhat distrust 26 Strongly distrust 26
President Obama
Herman Cain
10
4
2
24
23 39
41
31
36
Michelle Bachman
Mitt Romney
24
29
44
48
31
21
24
23
39
46 50
36
31 100
John Huntsman 1
0
Percent of Respondents
Q161. How much do you trust or distrust the following as a source of information about global warming? Television weather reporters Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust The mainstream news media Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 2 36 40 22 May 2011 4 34 37 25 June 2010 3 42 34 22 Jan 2010 3 33 35 29 Nov 2008 3 43 33 20 Nov 2011 6 52 30 12 May 2011 5 47 34 14 June 2010 5 56 28 11 Jan 2010 5 51 30 14 Nov 2008 6 60 25 10
16
Climate scientists Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Other kinds of scientists Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Scientists3 Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 May 2011 21 55 19 5 June 2010 26 55 15 4 Jan 2010 22 52 19 7 Nov 2008 28 54 14 4 Nov 2011 8 57 28 7 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 Nov 2011 24 50 19 8 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Your local public health department Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Your primary care doctor Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 10 46 30 14 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 Nov 2011 5 56 28 12 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
We have included this data from the May 2011 report to serve as a reference point for our new trust in scientists items. The new items split scientist into two groups: Climate scientists and other kinds of scientists.
3
17
President Obama Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 10 38 26 26 May 2011 11 35 24 30 June 2010 Jan 2010 16 35 21 28 Nov 2008 13 38 23 26
Your U.S. Congressman/Congresswoman Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 2 29 48 21 May 2011 2 34 39 24 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Mitt Romney (Republican candidate for president) Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 2 24 44 31 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
John Huntsman (Republican candidate for president) Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 1 23 46 31 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Michelle Bachman (Republican candidate for president) Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 2 23 39 36 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
18
Rick Perry (Republican candidate for president) Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 1 24 39 36 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Herman Cain (Republican candidate for president) Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Nov 2011 4 24 41 31 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
N140. Have you ever heard of the United Nations panel of climate experts, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)? Yes No Dont know Nov 2011 14 65 21 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
N141. How much do you trust or distrust the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a source of information about global warming? Strongly trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Strongly distrust Dont know Nov 2011 7 25 10 6 52 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Q141a. If 90% of climate scientists were to agree and state publicly that global warming is happening, would that increase, decrease, or have no impact on your level of concern about the issue? Increase my level of concern Have no impact on my level of concern Decrease my level of concern Nov 2011 47 48 5 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
19
Impact of a statement by 90% of climate scientists that global warming is happening on Americans who are already very, somewhat, not very, or not at all worried about global warming.
Increase my level of concern 100 Have no impact on my level of concern 5 5 Decrease my level of concern 5
34
Percent of Respondents
40
49 78
50
62
55
46 17
0 Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried
Q235. The actions of a single individual wont make any difference in global warming. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 11 31 43 15 May 2011 15 31 36 19 June 2010 13 29 43 15 Jan 2010 17 29 37 17 Nov 2008 9 22 45 24
Q237. New technologies can solve global warming, without individuals having to make big changes in their lives. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
4
Nov 2011 7 40 37 16
May 2011 7 40 33 21
June 2010 6 33 40 21
Jan 2010 6 42 33 19
Nov 2008 4 26 46 25
Of those Americans who are currently "very worried" about global warming, 62 percent say a statement like this by climate scientists would further increase their level of concern. Of those who are currently "somewhat", "not very" or "not at all" worried about global warming, a statement like this would further increase their levels of concern by 55, 46, and 17 percent, respectively.
20
Q238. Most of my friends are trying to act in ways that reduce global warming. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 3 43 40 14 May 2011 4 41 38 18 June 2010 5 47 36 12 Jan 2010 5 43 37 14 Nov 2008 4 44 40 11
Q238A. With the economy in such bad shape, the US cant afford to reduce global warming. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 10 33 41 16 May 2011 15 37 33 16 June 2010 13 30 42 15 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Q238B. The record heat waves last summer in the United States strengthened my belief that global warming is occurring. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 14 44 28 14 May 2011 13 41 26 20 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
Q238C. The record snowstorms this winter in the eastern United States make me question whether global warming is occurring. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 7 32 37 23 May 2011 13 34 30 24 June 2010 17 35 29 20 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
N166. Global warming is affecting the weather in the United States. Nov 2011 22 43 23 11 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
21
Q236. I have personally experienced the effects of global warming. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Nov 2011 7 31 37 25 May 2011 5 29 34 32 June 2010 5 25 35 35 Jan 2010 5 21 35 40 Nov 2008 4 29 43 24
Q182A. Where have you personally experienced global warming? Please check all that apply. Nov 2011 In the county, parish or borough where I live Elsewhere in the state where I live Elsewhere in the U.S. Other location Methodology These results come from nationally representative surveys of American adults, aged 18 and older. The samples were weighted to correspond with US Census Bureau parameters for the United States. The surveys were designed by Anthony Leiserowitz of Yale University and Edward Maibach and Connie Roser-Renouf of George Mason University and conducted by Knowledge Networks, using an online research panel of American adults. November 2011: Fielded October 20 through November 16 with 1,000 American adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percent, with 95 percent confidence. May 2011: Fielded April 23 through May 12 with 1,010 American adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percent, with 95 percent confidence. June 2010: Fielded May 14 through June 1 with 1,024 American adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percent, with 95 percent confidence. January 2010: Fielded December 24, 2009 through January 3, 2010 with 1,001 American adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percent, with 95 percent confidence. November 2008: Fielded October 7 through November 12 with 2,164 American adults. Data was collected in two waves: wave 1 from October 7 through October 20 and wave 2 from October 24 through November 12. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percent, with 95 percent confidence. 58 26 22 5 May 2011 June 2010 Jan 2010 Nov 2008 -
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