REDD+ in Madagascar Carbon stocks assessment and baseline setting: project-level inputs to national level !

Side-Event at COP 17 ! Durban - 2 dec 2011

Speakers: Romuald Vaudry: GoodPlanet Foundation Ghislain Vieilledent: CIRAD Clovis Grinand: GoodPlanet Foundation Jean-Roger Rakotoarijaona: National Office for the Environment Naomi Swickard: Verified Carbon Standard Charles Rakotondrainibe: Madagascar National Parks

Roissy 9 novembre 2010

! ! ! Keywords

Holistic Conservation Programme for Forests! In Madagascar !

- 5M project exclusively funded by Air France - Implemented by GoodPlanet and WWF Madagascar - Oct. 2008 - Feb. 2012 - Grant based project: no carbon credits issued by the end of the project
WWF Madagascar

- Carbon accounting: testing innovative tools/methods

Roissy 9 novembre 2010

 Objectives !
Aims to reduce deforestation and forest degradation and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

Yann Arthus-Bertrand

Specific goals: Improve living conditions of local communities Improve knowledge concerning the verifiable and effective measurement of the ground activities that aim to reduce GHG emissions Fully integrate the preservation of the Madagascars exceptional biodiversity
GoodPlanet/Romuald Vaudry

Intervention Sites
515 000 ha on 5 sites
Legend
HCPF Sites Background Missouri Botanical Garden

390 000 ha of moist forests

Andapa/Bealanana

WWF Canon/Edward Parker

125 000 ha of spiny forests

Fandriana/Marolambo

Ivohibe
Vondrozo

Fort-Dauphin

GoodPlanet/Romuald Vaudry PHCF / Sitraka Ranoeliarivao

Project activities !Conservation activities and carbon accounting"

Creation of new protected areas: 350 000 ha Transfer of natural resources management to local communities: 205 000 ha Restoration of degraded forest: 20 000 ha Reforestation: 3 000 ha Promotion of alternative practices: all sites Carbon knowledge and accounting: all sites "
GoodPlanet/Romuald Vaudry

WWF Canon/John E Newby

Spot Image

GoodPlanet/Romuald Vaudry

Above-Ground Biomass Assessment

Above-Ground Biomass Assessment

" "
1. Land-Use analysis" 2. LiDAR technology" 3. Allometric models development" 4. Final results" 5. Key inputs for national level" "

AGB Assessment
Land-Use Analysis" Typical Land-Use Northern site"
Secondary regrowth Settlements (village) Etablissements (Village)

Dense forests Grassland

Forts secondaires

Forts denses

Clear forests

Forts claires

Dense forests

Terres cultives
Grassland Prairies

Cropland

Riparian forests

Forts ripicoles

Autres terres Other land (sol nu) (bare soil)

HCPF / Sitraka Ranoeliarivao

AGB Assessment
Land-Use Analysis"
Spot Image very high resolution images (2.5-meter colour) " acquisition on all sites"

Original scene " Fandriana Region " 24th march 2009 "

Spot Image

AGB Assessment
Land-Use Analysis"

Stratied image (oct 2009)" " " " " " " " " " In partnership with " Antananarivo University"

HCPF / Tahiana Rajosarimalala

Above-Ground Biomass Assessment

" "
1. Land-Use analysis" 2. LiDAR technology" 3. Allometric models development" 4. Final results" 5. Key inputs for national level" "

AGB Assessment
LiDAR technology!

LiDAR = Light Detection And Ranging!

"

Measures properties of scattered light to nd range and/ or other information of a distant target" Relevance: " Height measurement => 3D structure"
"

Carnegie Airborne Observatory

Allow to reduce considerably " the number of eld plots" Covered Area: 50,000 ha" (10% of the total project area)"

AGB Assessment
LiDAR technology!

Maps of forest types " x" Soil cartography" x" Digital Elevation Model " " " " LiDAR Sampling !

HCPF / Tahiana Rajosarimalala

AGB Assessment
LiDAR technology!

Forest clearing

Secondary forest

Forest degrada2on

AGB Assessment
LiDAR technology! Couverture du site de Fort-Dauphin "

AGB Assessment
Field inventories!

Field Inventories sampling ! " Objective: measuring the widest range of forest carbon stocks" 47 plots in moist forests " 36 plots in spiny forests"

HCPF / Tahiana Rajosarimalala

Above-Ground Biomass Assessment

" "
1. Land-Use analysis" 2. LiDAR technology" 3. Allometric models development" 4. Final results" 5. Key inputs for national level" "

AGB Assessment
Allometric Models Development!

To switch from conventional forestry measures (diameter, height) in carbon stocks" Africa: 30% of the tropical forests" No generic allometric model for Africa" The choice of the allometric model is the most important source of error regarding AGB assessment (Keller 2001, Chave 2004)

- " - -

" => We made the decision to develop models for Madagascar in partnership with the CIRAD and the Antananarivo University "

"

AGB Assessment
Allometric Models Development!

Materials: " " 50 genera studied" 480 trees measured and entirely weighed, from stems to leaves" 2000 wood samples analysed in Cirad lab"

" " "

AGB Assessment
Allometric Models Development!

Results:" " Models used in Madagascar (including DBH only) strongly overestimate the AGB of: " " "" "Brown: "+ 35,5% in moist forests "Chave: "+ 36,9% in moist forests" " " "+ 91,1% in spiny forests " "+ 63,3% in spiny forests"

"
Models now available for any project proponent in Madagascar"

" "

AGB Assessment
Allometric Models Development!

Results:"

"
Compared to our regional models, Chaves models including DBH, Height and Wood Density can also provide accurate tree biomass estimates.

AGB Assessment
Allometric Models Development!

Results:"

"
Compared to our regional models, Chaves models including DBH, Height and Wood Density can also provide accurate tree biomass estimates. When allometric models are not available (e.g in Africa) and since height is time-consuming to measure, a simple H-DBH allometry can feed the above model to accurately estimate biomass and carbon stock from plot inventories.
For more details: A universal approach to estimate biomass and carbon stock in tropical forests using generic allometric models - Vieilledent G et al (2011). Ecological Applications.

Above-Ground Biomass Assessment

" "
1. Land-Use analysis" 2. LiDAR technology" 3. Allometric models development" 4. Final results" 5. Key inputs for national level" "

AGB Assessment
Final results!

Very high correlation between Mean Canopy Height (m) and Above Ground Carbon density (Mg C ha -1) Uncertainty: 12% only

AGB Assessment
Final results!
Southern Mountains (East) and Plains (West)! Mean Stocks"

Spiny forests " 17 tC/ha "

Moist Forests " 90 tC/ha "

10% uncertainty " at the pixel level (1ha) "

AGB Assessment
Final results!
Northern Mountains Region!

Moist Forests " 88 tC/ha " 35% uncertainty " at the pixel level (1ha) "

For more details: Human and Environmental Controls over Aboveground Carbon Storage in Madagascar - Asner et al (2011). Carbon Balance Management (in review)

AGB Assessment
Final results!
Northern Mountains Region!
Costs 0,15 $/ha of forest
This cost does not include allometric models development

Can easily drop around: 0,06-0,07 $/ha of forest

Because: - Our sites are scattered in the country - 24 field plots of the 83 plots were enough to calibrate the MCH/ACD model - Basal area measurement can replace DBH/H (Mascaro et al.2011) - LiDAR coverage: 5% of the project area is usually enough (vs 10% in our case)

300 000 $ for all the Malagasy moist forests (4,7 M ha)

AGB Assessment
!
Key inputs for (sub)national level Malagasy colleagues trained to deal with Very High Resolution imagery Critical information provided regarding forest definition (dry/spiny forests) Allometric models now available for any project proponent in Madagascar" LiDAR technology: a very interesting option to map carbon stocks of the remote moist forests of Madagascar (mainly located in mountains, on steep slopes). "

Modeling deforestation and associated CO2 emissions

Outline

Introduction Materials and methods Results Discussion

Outline

Introduction Materials and methods Results Discussion

Introduction
Objectives

1- Modeling the deforestation process: l Deforestation rates 2000-2010 l Factors of deforestation 2- Forecasting deforestation 2010-2030 3- Estimating CO2 emissions associated to deforestation

Introduction
Area 4 study areas - 3 in moist forest (North, Middle, South) - 1 in spiny dry forest (South) Surface 7 800 000 ha 2 141 520 ha of forest in 2010

Outline

Introduction Materials and methods l Land use change observation l Uncertainty l Deforestation model l Projected deforestation Results Discussion

Materials and Methods

Land use change observation Photo interpretation - Definition of forest: 0.1ha, 10% cover, 5m height - Landsat images (+GoogleEarth VHR images) - Training forest plots (1 for 500 ha of forest) - Land use change observations at 3 dates: FFF, FDD, FFD - Free Open Source (FOS) software: QGIS
Sept. 2001 April 2005 Nov. 2010

Materials and Methods

Land use change observation Land use change model Photo interpretation FFF, FDD, FFD + cloud, water and shade Landsat images Pixel characteristics NIR, VIS - NDVI - ...

model

FOS software: R with randomForest classification algorithm

Materials and Methods

Land use chane observation Projected land use change on the whole image Landsat images FFF, FDD, FFD + cloud, water and shade Pixel characteristics NIR, VIS - NDVI - EVI - ...

model

FOS software: R + GRASS GIS

Materials and Methods

Land use change observation
Sept. 2001 April 2005 Nov. 2010

Overland
Past deforestation 2001-2005 and 2005-2010

Materials and Methods

Land use change observation Originality of the approach - Integrates expert knowledge (photo interpretation) - Automated statistical treatment of the images with an advanced algorithm (randomForest) - Direct classification of land use change (FFF, FDD) - Using Free Open Source software

Outline

Introduction Materials and methods l Land use change observation l Uncertainty l Deforestation model l Projected deforestation Results Discussion

Materials and Methods

Uncertainty Uncertainty - Uncertainty associated to land use change observation - Assessed with cross-validation procedure Land use accuracy: 85% Land use change accuracy: 70% Consistency assessment - Comparison with other approaches: point sampling (pixel level)

Materials and Methods

Uncertainty Point sampling - Regular grid of 2 x 2 km - Pixel level - Photo interpretation on Landsat images (+ GoogleEarth VHR images)

Materials and Methods

Uncertainty Comparison

Outline

Introduction Materials and methods l Land use change observation l Uncertainty l Deforestation model l Projected deforestation Results Discussion

Materials and Methods

Deforestation model Logistic regression model
Land-use change observations: Zit={1,0} 1: deforested and 0: forest i: pixel et t: date Zit ~Binomial(it) logit(it)=f(factors, ) it: probability of deforestation for pixel i at date t : model parameters to be estimated

Materials and Methods

Deforestation model Factors of deforestation - Landscape factor: forest fragmentation - Anthropogenic factor: population density - Policy factor: protected area network

Materials and Methods

Deforestation model Factors of deforestation - Landscape factor: forest fragmentation - Anthropogenic factor: population density - Policy factor: protected area network

Materials and Methods

Deforestation model Factors of deforestation - Landscape factor: forest fragmentation - Anthropogenic factor: population density - Policy factor: protected area network

Materials and Methods

Deforestation model Parameter estimates Inference in a hierarchical Bayesian framework
Iterations = 5001:9996 Thinning interval = 5 Number of chains = 1 Sample size per chain = 1000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE (Intercept) -2.149186 0.068773 2.175e-03 5.039e-03 as.factor(fragindex)2 -0.607695 0.100512 3.178e-03 7.411e-03 as.factor(fragindex)3 -2.053594 0.087759 2.775e-03 8.137e-03 as.factor(fragindex)4 -3.244258 0.313901 9.926e-03 3.165e-02 as.factor(fragindex)5 -6.777683 0.829412 2.623e-02 9.915e-02 as.factor(aire_prot)2 -0.807469 0.134398 4.250e-03 1.300e-02 dens 0.004556 0.001107 3.499e-05 7.449e-05

FOS software: R and C++ code

Outline

Introduction Materials and methods l Land use change observation l Uncertainty l Deforestation model l Projected deforestation Results Discussion

Materials and methods

Projected deforestation Projecting explicative variables in the future Population : Using demographic models Protected areas : Unchanged Forest fragmentation : Iterative method, forest fragmentation is re-computed at each time step

Materials and methods

Projected deforestation Computing probability of deforestation in the future
logit(it)=0+1j Fragmentationit+2 DensPopit+3k AireProtit it: probabilit de dforestation du pixel i la date t blue-green-yellow-orange-red it=0 -----------------------> it=1 We simulate the deforestation following the estimated probability of deforestation FOS software: R + GRASS GIS

Materials and methods

Projected deforestation Deforestation and associated C/CO2 emissions

Materials and methods

Projected deforestation Deforestation and associated C/CO2 emissions

Materials and methods

Projected deforestation Deforestation and associated C/CO2 emissions

Materials and methods

Projected deforestation Deforestation 2010-2030

Outline

Introduction Materials and methods Results Discussion

Results
Carbon released on project areas
Project area Forest surface 2010 (ha) 197,763.13 111,759.00 25,342.00 51,433.00 119,736.00 Deforestation rate 2000-2010 0.44 0.80 2.19 0.84 0.35 C from AGB 2010-2030 (t) 1,332,641.00 1,824,165.00 859,040.00 529,995.00 139,588.00 4,685,429.00

ANDAPA Ivohibe Fandriana FD moist FD dry TOTAL

Outline

Introduction Materials and methods Results Discussion

Discussion

Key inputs for the (sub)national level

Work done on large areas (~25% of national forest) Methodological framework is now clearly defined Free Open-Source softwares with all scripts freely available Building capacity: students + engineers from national institutes Work can be easily and rapidly transposed to other forest areas

Soil Organic Carbon Assessment

Soil carbon accountancy at project scale

1. Introduction 2. Measuring soil carbon reference level 3. Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks 4. Monitoring soil-C change

Why taking soil into account?

Soil is a major carbon pool

Values in billions of tC (PgC)

Why taking soil into account?

Soil is a major carbon pool
Higher stocks in tropical and boreal forests

Values in billions of tC (PgC)

Why taking soil into account?

Soil is a major carbon pool
Higher stocks in tropical and boreal forests

Dry subhumid, semiarid, arid and hyperarid lands

Values in billions of tC (PgC)

Soil carbon accountancy at project scale

1. Introduction 2. Measuring soil carbon reference level 3. Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks 4. Monitoring soil-C change

Measuring soil carbon reference level

Objective : Soil carbon stock estimation at plot level Methodology : Soil collection and measurement from a 10x10 m plot, stratified by forest type, land use category and elevation Results were aggregated for 0-30 cm and 0-100 cm soil layer (IPCC requirements) Main activities : - Field survey - Formation of local survey team - Measurement of soil bulk density - Soil collection and database - Traditional lab measurement of C concentration - Infra red spectroscopy - Soil carbon stock estimation

Measuring soil carbon reference level

Infra red spectroscopy is used to produce accurate and costeffective carbone measurement

Some figures: -121 sample plots - 302 kg of soil collected - 750 soil carbon measure using infra red spectroscopy

Measuring soil carbon reference level

From 1,6 up to 3,8 times more carbon is stored on soil (1 m) compared to biomass

C stocks (tC/ha)

Soil layer

Humid Forest

Spiny Forest

Soil carbon accountancy at project scale

1. Introduction 2. Measuring soil carbon reference level 3. Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks 4. Monitoring soil-C change

Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks

How much carbon is stored in the soil?

and here?

Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks

Use of soil carbon inventory coupled with RS data and spatially explicit soil factor

Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks

Relative Importance of RS data and other spatially explicit factor
Annual precipitation
Importance relative des facteurs bio-physiques

Land cover Vegetation index Mean annual temperature Number of dry month Elevation

Clovis Grinand / IRD

Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks

Google Earth view

Savannah

Moist Forests Savannah Savannah Croplands

Spiny Forests

Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks

Land cover classification - 2005

Savannah

Moist Forests Savannah Savannah Croplands

Spiny Forests

Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks

Soil carbon stocks - 2005

Savannah

Moist Forests Savannah Savannah Croplands

Spiny Forests

Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks

Soil carbon stocks 1m (tC/ha)

Remote sensing can be used to derive soil carbon information Estimation is at 10 meter resolution Mean uncertainty is +/- 20 tC/ha for 30 cm and +/- 42 tC/ha for 100 cm Digitial soil carbon map is the best way to take into account soil variability compared with traditional soil map
(Grinand et al, forthcoming)

Soil carbon accountancy at project scale

1. Introduction 2. Measuring soil carbon reference level 3. Spatial estimation of soil carbon stocks 4. Monitoring soil-C change

Monitoring Soil-C change after deforestation

Soil carbon dynamic is difficult to assess due to interaction of many biological, physical and chemical process. Traditional study involves long term permanent trial plot, but that are not running in Madagascar Another way to assess carbon loss after deforestation is to measure carbon stock at different time after conversion.

Monitoring Soil-C change after deforestation

Soil carbon dynamic is difficult to assess due to interaction of many biological, physical and chemical process. Traditional study involves long term permanent trial plot, but that are not running in Madagascar Another way to assess carbon loss after deforestation is to measure carbon stock at different time after conversion.

To what extent the carbon store in the soil is lost and after how many years?

Monitoring Soil-C change after deforestation

Spiny region Humid region

C loss percentage

Year after conversion

C loss percentage

Year after conversion

Our results are consistent with the IPPC default emission factor 40% Maximum loss is reach around the 15th year after conversion Losses are different according to the soil layer
(Razakamanarivo et al, forthcoming)

Monitoring Soil-C change after deforestation

Baseline soil & above ground biomass emission

Humid region

Spiny region

In humid region, soil carbon is 30% of the biomass emission In spiny region, soil carbon mitigation potential is higher than biomass
(Razakamanarivo et al, forthcoming)

Soil carbon accountancy at project scale

Key inputs for (sub) national level

Soil carbon accountancy at project scale

Key inputs for (sub) national level
Soil carbon spectroscopy is a rapid and cost-effective tool for carbon measurement and is available in Madagascar Allow to set up reference level of carbon stock efficiently

Soil carbon accountancy at project scale

Key inputs for (sub) national level
Soil carbon spectroscopy is a rapid and cost-effective tool for carbon measurement and is available in Madagascar Allow to set up reference level of carbon stock efficiently Spatial estimation of soil carbon stock is possible also at landscape scale using remote sensing and easy to access ancillary dataset The method can be easily replicated to other regions

Soil carbon accountancy at project scale

Key inputs for (sub) national level
Soil carbon spectroscopy is a rapid and cost-effective tool for carbon measurement and is available in Madagascar Allow to set up reference level of carbon stock efficiently Spatial estimation of soil carbon stock is possible also at landscape scale using remote sensing and easy to access ancillary dataset The method can be easily replicated to other regions Soil carbon losses values are important input to estimate reduction potential at national scale They can be used for rough estimate as Malagasy soil in humid climate region have similar properties

Misaotra Merci Thank you"

GoodPlanet/Romuald Vaudry