Project Portfolio Management

A Project Report on PortIolio Management
Shree Chlmanbhal aLel lnsLlLuLe of ManagemenL 8esearch 1 | a g e

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ortfo||o Management

SubmlLLed Lo SubmlLLed by
rof Charml Shah urvesh Maheshwarl (04)
8haguraLhslngh vala (08)
Amardlpslngh Zala (38)
Anll Sadhu (84)


Shree Chlmanbhal aLel lnsLlLuLe of ManagemenL 8esearch | a g e

INDEX
SRAO. 1OPICS PACE AO
1.
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT -
INTRODUCTION
3-10
2. TYPES OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 11-13
3. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PROCESS 14-25
4.
RISK - RETURN ANALYSIS

26-29
5.
PORTFOLIO THEORIES
30-37
CONCLUSION 38-39
BIBLOGRAPHY 40



CHAPTER: 1
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

INTRODUCTION
Stock exchange operations are peculiar in nature and most oI the Investors Ieel insecure in
managing their investment on the stock market because it is diIIicult Ior an individual to identiIy
companies which have growth prospects Ior investment. Further due to volatile nature oI the
markets, it requires constant reshuIIling oI portIolios to capitalize on the growth opportunities.
Even aIter identiIying the growth oriented companies and their securities, the trading practices
are also complicated, making it a diIIicult task Ior investors to trade in all the exchange and
Iollow up on post trading Iormalities.

Investors choose to hold groups oI securities rather than single security that oIIer the greater
expected returns. They believe that a combination oI securities held together will give a
beneIicial result iI they are grouped in a manner to secure higher return aIter taking into
consideration the risk element. That is why proIessional investment advice through portIolio
management service can help the investors to make an intelligent and inIormed choice between
alternative investments opportunities without the worry oI post trading hassles.



MEANING OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
PortIolio management in common parlance reIers to the selection oI securities and their
continuous shiIting in the portIolio to optimize returns to suit the objectives oI an investor. This
however requires Iinancial expertise in selecting the right mix oI securities in changing market
conditions to get the best out oI the stock market. In India, as well as in a number oI western
countries, portIolio management service has assumed the role oI a specialized service now a days
and a number oI proIessional merchant bankers compete aggressively to provide the best to high
net worth clients, who have little time to manage their investments. The idea is catching on with
the boom in the capital market and an increasing number oI people are inclined to make proIits
out oI their hard-earned savings.
PortIolio management service is one oI the merchant banking activities recognized by
Securities and Exchange Board oI India (SEBI). The service can be rendered either by merchant
bankers or portIolio managers or discretionary portIolio manager as deIine in clause (e) and (I)
oI Rule 2 oI Securities and Exchange Board oI India(PortIolio Managers)Rules, 1993 and their
Iunctioning are guided by the SEBI.
According to the deIinitions as contained in the above clauses, a portIolio manager means
any person who is pursuant to contract or arrangement with a client, advises or directs or
undertakes on behalI oI the client (whether as a discretionary portIolio manager or otherwise) the
management or administration oI a portIolio oI securities or the Iunds oI the client, as the case
may be. A merchant banker acting as a PortIolio Manager shall also be bound by the rules and
regulations as applicable to the portIolio manager.
The stock markets have become attractive investment options Ior the common man. But the
need is to be able to eIIectively and eIIiciently manage investments in order to keep maximum
returns with minimum risk.
Hence this is the study on 'PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT & INVESTMENT DECISION
so as to examine the role, process and merits oI eIIective investment management and decision.



DEFINITIONS OF PORTFOLIO
1) Investor`sWords.com

A collection oI investments (all) owned by the same individual or organization. These
investments oIten include stocks, which are investments in individual businesses; bonds,
which are investments in debt that are designed to earn interest; and mutual Iunds, which are
essentially pools oI money Irom many investors that are invested by proIessionals or
according to indices.
2) Financial Dictionary and WikiAnswers.com
A collection oI various company shares, Iixed interest securities or money-market
instruments. People may talk grandly oI 'running a portIolio' when they own a couple oI
shares but the characteristic oI a serious investment portIolio is diversity. It should show a
spread oI investments to minimize risk - brokers and investment advisers warn against
'putting all your eggs in one basket'.

3) YourDictionary.com

a) All the securities held Ior investment as by an individual, bank, investment company,
etc.
b) A list oI such securities.

DEFINITIONS OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
1) Investor`swords.com
The process oI managing the assets oI a mutual Iund, including choosing and monitoring
appropriate investments and allocating Iunds accordingly.



2) Investor Glossary
Determining the mix oI assets to hold in a portIolio is reIerred to as portIolio
management. A Iundamental aspect oI portIolio management is choosing assets which are
consistent with the portIolio holder's investment objectives and risk tolerance. The ultimate
goal oI portIolio management is to achieve the optimum return Ior a given level oI risk.
Investors must balance risk and perIormance in making portIolio management decisions.
PortIolio management strategies may be either active or passive.
3) Financial Dictionary
Managing a large single portIolio or being employed by its owner to do so. PortIolio
managers have the knowledge and skill which encourage people to put their investment
decisions in the hands oI a proIessional (Ior a Iee).
DEFINITIONS OF PRO1ECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
1) Internet.com - Webopedia
PPM, short Ior project portfolio management, reIers to a soItware package that enables
corporate and business users to organize a series oI projects into a single portIolio that will
provide reports based on the various project objectives, costs, resources, risks and other
pertinent associations. Project portIolio management soItware allows the user, usually
management or executives within the company, to review the portIolio which will assist in
making key Iinancial and business decisions Ior the projects.
2) Bitpipe.com

Project portIolio management organizes a series oI projects into a single portIolio
consisting oI reports that capture project objectives, costs, timelines, accomplishments,
resources, risks and other critical Iactors. Executives can then regularly review entire
portIolios, spread resources appropriately and adjust projects to produce the highest
departmental returns. Also called as Enterprise Project management and PPM


SCOPE OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT:
PortIolio management is an art oI putting money in Iairly saIe, quite proIitable and reasonably
in liquid Iorm. An investor`s attempt to Iind the best combination oI risk and return is the Iirst and
usually the Ioremost goal. In choosing among diIIerent investment opportunities the Iollowing
aspects risk management should be considered:
a) The selection oI a level or risk and return that reIlects the investor`s tolerance Ior risk and
desire Ior return, i.e. personal preIerences.
b) The management oI investment alternatives to expand the set oI opportunities available at
the investors acceptable risk level.
The very risk-averse investor might choose to invest in mutual Iunds. The more risk-tolerant
investor might choose shares, iI they oIIer higher returns. PortIolio management in India is still in
its inIancy. An investor has to choose a portIolio according to his preIerences. The Iirst preIerence
normally goes to the necessities and comIorts like purchasing a house or domestic appliances. His
second preIerence goes to some contractual obligations such as liIe insurance or provident Iunds.
The third preIerence goes to make a provision Ior savings required Ior making day to day
payments. The next preIerence goes to short term investments such as UTI units and post oIIice
deposits which provide easy liquidity. The last choice goes to investment in company shares and
debentures. There are number oI choices and decisions to be taken on the basis oI the attributes oI
risk, return and tax beneIits Irom these shares and debentures. The Iinal decision is taken on the
basis oI alternatives, attributes and investor preIerences.
For most investors it is not possible to choose between managing one`s own portIolio. They
can hire a proIessional manager to do it. The proIessional managers provide a variety oI services
including diversiIication, active portIolio management, liquid securities and perIormance oI
duties associated with keeping track oI investor`s money.


NEED FOR PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT:
PortIolio management is a process encompassing many activities oI investment in assets and
securities. It is a dynamic and Ilexible concept and involves regular and systematic analysis,
judgment and action. The objective oI this service is to help the unknown and investors with the
expertise oI proIessionals in investment portIolio management. It involves construction oI a
portIolio based upon the investor`s objectives, constraints, preIerences Ior risk and returns and tax
liability. The portIolio is reviewed and adjusted Irom time to time in tune with the market
conditions. The evaluation oI portIolio is to be done in terms oI targets set Ior risk and returns.
The changes in the portIolio are to be eIIected to meet the changing condition.
PortIolio construction reIers to the allocation oI surplus Iunds in hand among a variety oI
Iinancial assets open Ior investment. PortIolio theory concerns itselI with the principles governing
such allocation. The modern view oI investment is oriented more go towards the assembly oI
proper combination oI individual securities to Iorm investment portIolio.
A combination oI securities held together will give a beneIicial result iI they grouped in a
manner to secure higher returns aIter taking into consideration the risk elements.
The modern theory is the view that by diversiIication risk can be reduced. DiversiIication can
be made by the investor either by having a large number oI shares oI companies in diIIerent
regions, in diIIerent industries or those producing diIIerent types oI product lines. Modern
theory believes in the perspective oI combination oI securities under constraints oI risk and
returns.


OB1ECTIVES OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT:
The major objectives of portfolio management are summarized as below:-

1) Security/Safety of Prinicpal: Security not only involves keeping the principal sum intact
but also keeping intact its purchasing power intact.

2) Stability of Income: So as to Iacilitate planning more accurately and systematically the
reinvestment consumption oI income.

3) Capital Growth: This can be attained by reinvesting in growth securities or through
purchase oI growth securities.

4) Marketability: i.e. is the case with which a security can be bought or sold. This is
essential Ior providing Ilexibility to investment portIolio.

5) Liquidity i.e Nearness To Money: It is desirable to investor so as to take advantage oI
attractive opportunities upcoming in the market.

6) Diversification: The basic objective oI building a portIolio is to reduce risk oI loss oI
capital and / or income by investing in various types oI securities and over a wide range oI
industries.

7) Favorable Tax Status: The eIIective yield an investor gets Iorm his investment depends
on tax to which it is subject. By minimizing the tax burden, yield can be eIIectively
improved.


BASIC PRINCIPLES OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT:
There are two basic principles Ior eIIective portIolio management which are given below:-
I. Effective investment planning for the investment in securities by considering the
following factors-

a) Fiscal, Iinancial and monetary policies oI the Govt. oI India and the
Reserve Bank oI India.
b) Industrial and economic environment and its impact on industry.
Prospect in terms oI prospective technological changes, competition in the market,
capacity utilization with industry and demand prospects etc.

II. Constant Review of Investment: It requires to review the investment in securities and to
continue the selling and purchasing oI investment in more proIitable manner. For this
purpose they have to carry the Iollowing analysis:

a) To assess the quality oI the management oI the companies in which investment has been
made or proposed to be made.

b) To assess the Iinancial and trend analysis oI companies Balance Sheet and ProIit and Loss
Accounts to identiIy the optimum capital structure and better perIormance Ior the purpose
oI withholding the investment Irom poor companies.

c) To analyze the security market and its trend in continuous basis to arrive at a conclusion
as to whether the securities already in possession should be disinvested and new
securities be purchased. II so the timing Ior investment or dis-investment is also revealed.



CHAP1ER - 2
TYPES OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
There are various types of portfolio management:
Investment Management

IT Portfolio Management

Project Portfolio Management

1. INVESMENT MANAGEMENT:
Investment management is the proIessional management oI various securities (shares,
bonds etc.) and assets (e.g., real estate), to meet speciIied investment goals Ior the beneIit oI the
investors. Investors may be institutions (insurance companies, pension Iunds, corporations etc.)
or private investors (both directly via investment contracts and more commonly via collective
investment schemes e.g. mutual Iunds or Exchange Traded Funds).
The term asset management is oIten used to reIer to the investment management oI
collective investments,(not necessarily) whilst the more generic fund management may reIer to
all Iorms oI institutional investment as well as investment management Ior private investors.
Investment managers who specialize in advisory or discretionary management on behalI oI
(normally wealthy) private investors may oIten reIer to their services as wealth management or
portfolio management oIten within the context oI so-called "private banking".
Fund manager (or investment adviser in the U.S.) reIers to both a Iirm that provides
investment management services and an individual who directs Iund management decisions.


2. IT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT:
IT portfolio management is the application oI systematic management to large classes oI
items managed by enterprise InIormation Technology (IT) capabilities. Examples oI IT
portIolios would be planned initiatives, projects, and ongoing IT services (such as application
support). The promise oI IT portIolio management is the quantiIication oI previously mysterious
IT eIIorts, enabling measurement and objective evaluation oI investment scenarios.

The concept is analogous to Iinancial portIolio management, but there are signiIicant
diIIerences. IT investments are not liquid, like stocks and bonds (although investment portIolios
may also include illiquid assets), and are measured using both Iinancial and non-Iinancial
yardsticks (Ior example, a balanced scorecard approach); a purely Iinancial view is not suIIicient.
At its most mature, IT PortIolio management is accomplished through the creation oI two
portIolios:
i) Application Portfolio - Management oI this portIolio Iocuses on comparing spending on
established systems based upon their relative value to the organization. The comparison can
be based upon the level oI contribution in terms oI IT investment`s proIitability.
Additionally, this comparison can also be based upon the non-tangible Iactors such as
organizations` level oI experience with a certain technology, users` Iamiliarity with the


applications and inIrastructure, and external Iorces such as emergence oI new technologies
and obsolesce oI old ones.

ii) Project Portfolio - This type oI portIolio management specially address the issues with
spending on the development oI innovative capabilities in terms oI potential ROI and
reducing investment overlaps in situations where reorganization or acquisition occurs. The
management issues with the second type oI portIolio management can be judged in terms
oI data cleanliness, maintenance savings, suitability oI resulting solution and the relative
value oI new investments to replace these projects.

3. PRO1ECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT:
Project portIolio management organizes a series oI projects into a single portIolio consisting
oI reports that capture project objectives, costs, timelines, accomplishments, resources, risks and
other critical Iactors. Executives can then regularly review entire portIolios, spread resources
appropriately and adjust projects to produce the highest departmental returns.
Project management is the discipline oI planning, organizing and managing resources to
bring about the successIul completion oI speciIic project goals and objectives.
A project is a Iinite endeavor (having speciIic start and completion dates) undertaken to
create a unique product or service which brings about beneIicial change or added value. This
Iinite characteristic oI projects stands in contrast to processes, or operations, which are
permanent or semi-permanent Iunctional work to repetitively produce the same product or
service. In practice, the management oI these two systems is oIten Iound to be quite diIIerent,
and as such requires the development oI distinct technical skills and the adoption oI separate
management.



CHAP1ER: 3
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PROCESS:
A) THERE ARE THREE MA1OR ACTIVITIES INVOLVED IN AN
EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT WHICH ARE AS
FOLLOWS:-
a) IdentiIication oI assets or securities, allocation oI investment and also identiIying the
classes oI assets Ior the purpose oI investment.

b) They have to decide the major weights, proportion oI diIIerent assets in the portIolio by
taking in to consideration the related risk Iactors.

c) Finally they select the security within the asset classes as identiIy.

The above activities are directed to achieve the sole purpose oI maximizing return and
minimizing risk on investment.
It is well known Iact that portIolio manager balances the risk and return in a portIolio
investment. With higher risk higher return may be expected and vice versa.

B) INVESTMENT DECISION:
Given a certain sum oI Iunds, the investment decisions basically depend upon the Iollowing
Iactors:-
I. Objectives of Investment Portfolio: This is a crucial point which a Finance Manager must
consider. There can be many objectives oI making an investment. The manager oI a
provident Iund portIolio has to look Ior security and may be satisIied with none too high a
return, where as an aggressive investment company be willing to take high risk in order to
have high capital appreciation.



How the objectives can aIIect in investment decision can be seen Irom the Iact that the
Unit Trust oI India has two major schemes : Its 'capital units are meant Ior those who
wish to have a good capital appreciation and a moderate return, where as the ordinary unit
are meant to provide a steady return only. The investment manager under both the scheme
will invest the money oI the Trust in diIIerent kinds oI shares and securities. So it is
obvious that the objectives must be clearly deIined beIore an investment decision is taken.
II. Selection of Investment: Having deIined the objectives oI the investment, the next
decision is to decide the kind oI investment to be selected. The decision what to buy has to
be seen in the context oI the Iollowing:-

a) There is a wide variety oI investments available in market i.e. Equity shares, preIerence
share, debentures, convertible bond, Govt. securities and bond, capital units etc. Out oI
these what types oI securities to be purchased.

b) What should be the proportion oI investment in Iixed interest dividend securities and
variable dividend bearing securities? The Iixed one ensures a deIinite return and thus a
lower risk but the return is usually not as higher as that Irom the variable dividend
bearing shares.

c) II the investment is decided in shares or debentures, then the industries showing a
potential in growth should be taken in Iirst line. Industry-wise-analysis is important since
various industries are not at the same level Irom the investment point oI view. It is
important to recognize that at a particular point oI time, a particular industry may have a
better growth potential than other industries. For example, there was a time when jute
industry was in great Iavour because oI its growth potential and high proIitability, the
industry is no longer at this point oI time as a growth oriented industry.
d) Once industries with high growth potential have been identiIied, the next step is to select
the particular companies, in whose shares or securities investments are to be made.


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

A) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF GROWTH ORIENTED COMPANIES:

One oI the Iirst decisions that an investment manager Iaces is to identiIy the industries which
have a high growth potential. Two approaches are suggested in this regard. They are:
a) Statistical Analysis of Past Performance:
A statistical analysis oI the immediate past perIormance oI the share price indices oI various
industries and changes there in related to the general price index oI shares oI all industries should
be made. The Reserve Bank oI India index numbers oI security prices published every month in
its bulletin may be taken to represent the behaviour oI share prices oI various industries in the
last Iew years. The related changes in the price index oI each industry as compared with the
changes in the average price index oI the shares oI all industries would show those industries
which are having a higher growth potential in the past Iew years. It may be noted that an Industry
may not be remaining a growth Industry Ior all the time. So he shall now have to make an
assessment oI the various Industries keeping in view the present potentiality also to Iinalize the
list oI Industries in which he will try to spread his investment.
b) Assessing the Intrinsic Value of an Industry/Company:
AIter an investment manager has identiIied statistically the industries in the share oI which the
investors show interest, he would assess the various Iactors which inIluence the value oI a
particular share. These Iactors generally relate to the strengths and weaknesses oI the company
under consideration, Characteristics oI the industry within which the company Iails and the
national and international economic scene. It is the job oI the investment manager to examine
and weigh the various Iactors and judge the quality oI the share or the security under
consideration. This approach is known as the intrinsic value approach.

The major objective oI the analysis is to determine the relative quality and the quantity oI the
security and to decide whether or not is security is good at current markets prices. In this, both
qualitative and quantitative Iactors are to be considered.


B) INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
First oI all, an assessment will have to be made regarding all the conditions and Iactors relating
to demand oI the particular product, cost structure oI the industry and other economic and
Government constraints on the same. As we have discussed earlier, an appraisal oI the particular
industry`s prospect is essential and the basic proIitability oI any company is dependent upon the
economic prospect oI the industry to which it belongs. The Iollowing Iactors may particularly be
kept in mind while assessing to Iactors relating to an industry.

i) Demand and Supply Pattern for the Industries Products and Its Growth Potential:
The main important aspect is to see the likely demand oI the products oI the industry and
the gap between demand and supply. This would reIlect the Iuture growth prospects oI the
industry. In order to know the Iuture volume and the value oI the output in the next ten
years or so, the investment manager will have to rely on the various demand Iorecasts made
by various agencies like the planning commission, Chambers oI Commerce and institutions
like NCAER, etc.
The management expert identiIies Iives stages in the liIe oI an industry. These are
'Introduction, development, rapid growth, maturity and decline. II an industry has already
reached the maturity or decline stage, its Iuture demand potential is not likely to be high.



ii) Profitability: It is a vital consideration Ior the investors as proIit is the measure oI
perIormance and a source oI earning Ior him. So the cost structure oI the industry as related
to its sale price is an important consideration. In India there are many industries which have
a growth potential on account oI good demand position. The other point to be considered is
the ratio analysis, especially return on investment, gross proIit and net proIit ratio oI the
existing companies in the industry. This would give him an idea about the proIitability oI
the industry as a whole.

iii) Particular Characteristics of the Industry: Each industry has its own characteristics,
which must be studied in depth in order to understand their impact on the working oI the
industry. Because the industry having a Iast changing technology become obsolete at a
Iaster rate. Similarly, many industries are characterized by high rate oI proIits and losses in
alternate years. Such Iluctuations in earnings must be careIully examined.

iv) Labour Management Relations in the Industry: The state oI labour-management
relationship in the particular industry also has a great deal oI inIluence on the Iuture
proIitability oI the industry. The investment manager should, thereIore, see whether the
industry under analysis has been maintaining a cordial relationship between labour and
management.

Once the industry`s characteristics have been analyzed and certain industries with growth
potential identiIied, the next stage would be to undertake and analyze all the Iactors which show
the desirability oI various companies within an industry group Irom investment point oI view.



C) COMPANY ANALYSIS:
To select a company Ior investment purpose a number oI qualitative Iactors have to be seen.
BeIore purchasing the shares oI the company, relevant inIormation must be collected and
properly analyzed. An illustrative list of factors which help the analyst in taking the
investment decision is given below. However, it must be emphasized that the past perIormance
and inIormation is relevant only to the extent it indicates the Iuture trends. Hence, the investment
manager has to visualize the perIormance oI the company in Iuture by analyzing its past
perIormance.

1) Size and Ranking: A rough idea regarding the size and ranking oI the company within
the economy, in general, and the industry, in particular, would help the investment
manager in assessing the risk associated with the company. In this regard the net capital
employed, the net proIits, the return on investment and the sales volume oI the company
under consideration may be compared with similar data oI other company in the same
industry group. It may also be useIul to assess the position oI the company in terms oI
technical knowhow, research and development activity and price leadership.

2) Growth Record: The growth in sales, net income, net capital employed and earnings per
share oI the company in the past Iew years must be examined. The Iollowing three
growth indicators may be particularly looked in to (a) Price earnings ratio, (b) Percentage
growth rate oI earnings per annum and (c) Percentage growth rate oI net block oI the
company. The price earnings ratio is an important indicator Ior the investment manager
since it shows the number the times the earnings per share are covered by the market
price oI a share. Theoretically, this ratio should be same Ior two companies with similar
Ieatures. However, this is not so in practice due to many Iactors. Hence, by a comparison
oI this ratio pertaining to diIIerent companies the investment manager can have an idea
about the image oI the company and can determine whether the share is under-priced or
over-priced. An evaluation oI Iuture growth prospects oI the company should be careIully
made. This requires the analysis oI the existing capacities and their utilization, proposed
expansion and diversiIication plans and the nature oI the company`s technology.


The existing capacity utilization levels can be known Irom the quantitative inIormation
given in the published proIit and loss accounts oI the company. The plans oI the
company, in terms oI expansion or diversiIication, can be known Irom the directors
reports the chairman`s statements and Irom the Iuture capital commitments as shown by
way oI notes in the balance sheets. The nature oI technology oI a company should be
seen with reIerence to technological developments in the concerned Iields, the possibility
oI its product being superseded oI the possibility oI emergence oI more eIIective method
oI manuIacturing.
Growth is the single most important Iactor in company analysis Ior the purpose oI
investment management. A company may have a good record oI proIits and perIormance
in the past; but iI it does not have growth potential, its shares cannot be rated high Irom
the investment point oI view.

D) FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:
An analysis oI Iinancial Ior the past Iew years would help the investment manager in
understanding the Iinancial solvency and liquidity, the eIIiciency with which the Iunds are used,
the proIitability, the operating eIIiciency and operating leverages oI the company. For this
purpose certain Iundamental ratios have to be calculated.
From the investment point oI view, the most important Iigures are earnings per share, price
earnings ratios, yield, book value and the intrinsic value oI the share. The Iive elements may be
calculated Ior the past ten years or so and compared with similar ratios computed Irom the
Iinancial accounts oI other companies in the industry and with the average ratios oI the industry
as a whole. The yield and the asset backing oI a share are important considerations in a decision
regarding whether the particular market price oI the share is proper or not.
Various other ratios to measure proIitability, operating eIIiciency and turnover eIIiciency oI the
company may also be calculated. The return on owner`s investment, capital turnover ratio and
the cost structure ratios may also be worked out. To examine the Iinancial solvency or liquidity
oI the company, the investment manager may work out current ratio, liquidity ratio, debt equity


ratio, etc. These ratios will provide an overall view oI the company to the investment analyst. He
can analyze its strengths and weakness and see whether it is worth the risk or not.
i) "uality of Management: This is an intangible Iactor. Yet it has a very important bearing
on the value oI the shares. Every investment manager knows that the shares oI certain
business houses command a higher premium than those oI similar companies managed by
other business houses. This is because oI the quality oI management, the conIidence that
the investors have in a particular business house, its policy vis-a-vis its relationship with
the investors, dividend and Iinancial perIormance record oI other companies in the same
group, etc.

This is perhaps the reason that an investment manager always gives a close look to the
management oI the company whose shares he is to invest. Quality oI management has to be
seen with reIerence to the experience, skill and integrity oI the persons at the helm oI the
aIIairs oI the company. The policy oI the management regarding relationship with the share
holders is an important Iactor since certain business houses believe in generous dividend
and bonus distributions while others are rather conservative.

ii) Location and labour management relations: The locations oI the company`s
manuIacturing Iacilities determine its economic viability which depends on the availability
oI crucial inputs like power, skilled labour and raw materials etc. Nearness to market is also
a Iactor to be considered.
In the past Iew years, the investment manager has begun looking into the state oI labour
management relations in the company under consideration and the area where it is located.

iii) Pattern of Existing Stock Holding: An analysis oI the pattern oI the existing stock
holdings oI the company would also be relevant. This would show the stake oI various
parties associated with the company. An interesting case in this regard is that oI the Punjab
National Bank in which the L.I.C. and other Iinancial institutions had substantial holdings.
When the bank was nationalized, the residual company proposed a scheme whereby those
shareholders, who wish to opt out, could receive a certain amount as compensation in cash.


It was only at the instant and bargaining strength oI institutional investors that the
compensation oIIered to the shareholders, who wish to opt out oI the company, was raised
considerably.

iv) Marketability of the Shares: Another important consideration Ior an investment manager
is the marketability oI the shares oI the company. Mere listing oI the share on the stock
exchange does not automatically mean that the share can be sold or purchased at will.
There are many shares which remain inactive Ior long periods with no transactions being
aIIected.

To purchase or sell such scripts is a diIIicult task. In this regard, dispersal oI share holding
with special reIerence to the extent oI public holding should be seen. The other relevant
Iactors are the speculative interest in the particular scrip, the particular stock exchange
where it is traded and the volume oI trading.

Fundamental analysis thus is basically an examination oI the economics and Iinancial aspects oI a
company with the aim oI estimating Iuture earnings and dividend prospect. It included an analysis
oI the macro economic and political Iactors which will have an impact on the perIormance oI the
Iirm. AIter having analyzed all the relevant inIormation about the company and its relative
strength vis-a-vis other Iirm in the industry, the investor is expected to decide whether he should
buy or sell the securities.



C) TIMING OF PURCHASES:-
The timing oI dealings in the securities, specially shares is oI crucial importance, because
aIter correctly identiIying the companies one may lose money iI the timing is bad due to wide
Iluctuation in the price oI shares oI that companies.
The decision regarding timing oI purchases is particularly diIIicult because oI certain
psychological Iactors. It is obvious that iI a person wishes to make any gains, he should buy
cheap and sell dear, i.e. buy when the share are selling at a low price and sell when they are at a
higher price. But in practical it is a diIIicult task.
When the prices are rising in the market i.e. there is bull phase, everybody joins in buying
without any delay because every day the prices touch a new high. Later when the bear Iace starts,
prices tumble down every day and everybody starts counting the losses. The ordinary investor
regretted such situation by thinking why he did not sell his shares in previous day and ultimately
sell at a lower price. This kind oI investment decision is entirely devoid oI any sense oI timing.
In short we can conclude by saying that Investment management is a complex activity
which may be broken down into the following steps:
1) Specification Of Investment Objectives And Constraints:
The typical objectives sought by investors are current income, capital appreciation, and
saIety oI principle. The relative importance oI these objectives should be speciIied Iurther the
constraints arising Irom liquidity, time horizon, tax and special circumstances must be
identiIied.
2) Choice Of The Asset Mix :
The most important decision in portIolio management is the asset mix decision very
broadly; this is concerned with the proportions oI stocks` (equity shares and units/shares oI
equity-oriented mutual Iunds) and bonds` in the portIolio.
The appropriate stock-bond` mix depends mainly on the risk tolerance and investment
horizon oI the investor.



ELEMENTS OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT:

Portfolio management is on-going process involving the following basic tasks:
IdentiIication oI the investor`s objectives, constraints and preIerences.

Strategies are to be developed and implemented in tune with investment policy
Iormulated.

Review and monitoring oI the perIormance oI the portIolio.

Finally the evaluation oI the portIolio

Techniques of Portfolio Management:
As oI now the under noted technique oI portIolio management: are in vogue in our country.
1) Equity Portfolio: It is inIluenced by internal and external Iactors the internal Iactors
aIIect the inner working oI the company`s growth plans are analyzed with reIerenced to
Balance sheet, proIit & loss a/c (account) oI the company.
Among the external Iactor are changes in the government policies, Trade cycle`s, Political
stability etc.
2) Equity Stock Analysis: Under this method the probable Iuture value oI a share oI a
company is determined it can be done by ratio`s oI earning per share oI the company and
price earnings ratio
EARNING PER SHARE _ PROFIT AFTER TAX__
NO. OF E"UITY SHARES

PRICE EARNING RATIO _MARKET PRICE PER SHARE)_
EARNING PER SHARE



One can estimate trend oI earning by EPS, which reIlects trends oI earning quality oI
company, dividend policy, and quality oI management.
Price Earnings ratio indicate a conIidence oI market about the company Iuture, a high rating is
preIerable.
The following points must be considered by portfolio managers while analyzing the
securities.
1) Nature of the industry and its product: Long term trends oI industries, competition
within, and outside the industry, Technical changes, labour relations, sensitivity, to Trade
cycle.

2) Industrial analysis of prospective earnings, cash flows, working capital, dividends,
etc.

3) Ratio analysis: Ratios such as debt equity ratio, current ratio, net worth, proIit earnings
ratio, returns on investment, are worked out to decide the portIolio.

The wise principle oI portIolio management suggests that Buy when the market is low or
BEARISH, and sell when the market is rising or BULLISH.
Stock market operation can be analyzed by:
a) Fundamental approach: - Based on intrinsic value oI shares.
b) Technical approach: - Based on Dow Jone`s Theory, Random Walk Theory, etc.

Prices are based upon demand and supply of the market.
Objectives are maximization oI wealth and minimization oI risk.
DiversiIication reduces risk and volatility.
Variable returns, high illiquidity; etc.



CHAP1ER - 4
RISK - RETURN ANALYSIS

RISK ON PORTFOLIO :
The expected returns Irom individual securities carry some degree oI risk. Risk on the
portIolio is diIIerent Irom the risk on individual securities. The risk is reIlected in the variability
oI the returns Irom zero to inIinity. Risk oI the individual assets or a portIolio is measured by the
variance oI its return. The expected return depends on the probability oI the returns and their
weighted contribution to the risk oI the portIolio. These are two measures oI risk in this context
one is the absolute deviation and other standard deviation.
Most investors invest in a portIolio oI assets, because as to spread risk by not putting all eggs
in one basket. Hence, what really matters to them is not the risk and return oI stocks in isolation,
but the risk and return oI the portIolio as a whole. Risk is mainly reduced by DiversiIication.

Following are the some of the types of Risk:
1) Interest Rate Risk: This arises due to the variability in the interest rates Irom time to
time. A change in the interest rate establishes an inverse relationship in the price oI the
security i.e. price oI the security tends to move inversely with change in rate oI interest,
long term securities show greater variability in the price with respect to interest rate
changes than short term securities.

Interest rate risk vulnerability Ior diIIerent securities is as under:
TYPES RISK EXTENT
Cash Equivalent Less vulnerable to interest rate risk.
Long Term Bonds More vulnerable to interest rate risk.



2) Purchasing Power Risk: It is also known as inIlation risk also emanates Irom the very
Iact that inIlation aIIects the purchasing power adversely. Nominal return contains both
the real return component and an inIlation premium in a transaction involving risk oI the
above type to compensate Ior inIlation over an investment holding period. InIlation rates
vary over time and investors are caught unaware when rate oI inIlation changes
unexpectedly causing erosion in the value oI realized rate oI return and expected return.
Purchasing power risk is more in inIlationary conditions especially in respect oI bonds
and Iixed income securities. It is not desirable to invest in such securities during
inIlationary periods. Purchasing power risk is however, less in Ilexible income securities
like equity shares or common stock where rise in dividend income oII-sets increase in the
rate oI inIlation and provides advantage oI capital gains.

3) Business Risk: Business risk emanates Irom sale and purchase oI securities aIIected by
business cycles, technological changes etc. Business cycles aIIect all types oI securities
i.e. there is cheerIul movement in boom due to bullish trend in stock prices whereas
bearish trend in depression brings down Iall in the prices oI all types oI securities during
depression due to decline in their market price.

4) Financial Risk: It arises due to changes in the capital structure oI the company. It is also
known as leveraged risk and expressed in terms oI debt-equity ratio. Excess oI risk vis-a-
vis equity in the capital structure indicates that the company is highly geared. Although a
leveraged company`s earnings per share are more but dependence on borrowings exposes
it to risk oI winding up Ior its inability to honor its commitments towards lender or
creditors. The risk is known as leveraged or Iinancial risk oI which investors should be
aware and portIolio managers should be very careIul.

5) Systematic Risk or Market Related Risk: Systematic risks aIIected Irom the entire
market are (the problems, raw material availability, tax policy or government policy,
inIlation risk, interest risk and Iinancial risk). It is managed by the use oI Beta oI diIIerent
company shares.


6) Unsystematic Risks: The unsystematic risks are mismanagement, increasing inventory,
wrong Iinancial policy, deIective marketing etc. this is diversiIiable or avoidable because
it is possible to eliminate or diversiIy away this component oI risk to a considerable
extent by investing in a large portIolio oI securities. The unsystematic risk stems Irom
ineIIiciency magnitude oI those Iactors diIIerent Iorm one company to another.
RISK RETURN ANALYSIS:
All investment has some risk. Investment in shares oI companies has its own risk or
uncertainty; these risks arise out oI variability oI yields and uncertainty oI appreciation or
depreciation oI share prices, losses oI liquidity etc
The risk over time can be represented by the variance oI the returns while the return over
time is capital appreciation plus payout, divided by the purchase price oI the share.

Normally, the higher the risk that the investor takes, the higher is the return. There is,
however, a risk less return on capital oI about 12 which is the bank, rate charged by the R.B.I
or long term, yielded on government securities at around 13 to 14. This risk less return reIers
to lack oI variability oI return and no uncertainty in the repayment or capital. But other risks such


as loss oI liquidity due to parting with money etc., may however remain, but are rewarded by the
total return on the capital.
Risk-return is subject to variation and the objectives oI the portIolio manager are to reduce
that variability and thus reduce the risk by choosing an appropriate portIolio.
Traditional approach advocates that one security holds the better, it is according to the modern
approach diversiIication should not be quantity that should be related to the quality oI scripts
which leads to quality oI portIolio.
Experience has shown that beyond the certain securities by adding more securities expensive.
RETURNS ON PORTFOLIO:
Each security in a portIolio contributes return in the proportion oI its investments in
security. Thus the portIolio expected return is the weighted average oI the expected return, Irom
each oI the securities, with weights representing the proportions share oI the security in the total
investment. Why does an investor have so many securities in his portIolio? II the security ABC
gives the maximum return why not he invests in that security all his Iunds and thus maximize
return? The answer to this questions lie in the investor`s perception oI risk attached to
investments, his objectives oI income, saIety, appreciation, liquidity and hedge against loss oI
value oI money etc. this pattern oI investment in diIIerent asset categories, types oI investment,
etc., would all be described under the caption oI diversiIication, which aims at the reduction or
even elimination oI non-systematic risks and achieve the speciIic objectives oI investors.


CHAP1ER: 5
PORTFOLIO THEORIES
I. DOW 1ONES THEORY:

The DOW JONES THEORY is probably the most popular theory regarding the behavior oI
stock market prices. The theory derives its name Irom Charles H. Dow, who established the Dow
Jones & Co. and was the Iirst editor oI the Wall Street Journal a leading publication on
Iinancial and economic matters in the U.S.A. Although Dow never gave a proper shape to the
theory, ideas have been expanded and articulated by many oI his successors.
The Dow Jones theory classiIies the movement oI the prices on the share market into three major
categories:
1. Primary Movements,
2. Secondary Movements and
3. Daily Fluctuations.
1) Primary Movements: They reIlect the trend oI the stock market and last Irom one year
to three years, or sometimes even more. II the long range behavior oI market prices is
seen, it will be observed that the share markets go through deIinite phases where the
prices are consistently rising or Ialling. These phases are known as bull and bear phases.
P3
P2
P1 T3
T2
T1
Graph 1



During a bull phase, the basic trend is that oI rise in prices. Graph 1 above shows the
behavior oI stock market prices in bull phase.
You would notice Irom the graph that although the prices Iall aIter each rise, the basic
trend is that oI rising prices. As can be seen Irom the graph that each trough prices reach, is at
a higher level than the earlier one. Similarly, each peak that the prices reach is on a higher
level than the earlier one. Thus P2 is higher than P1 and T2 is higher than T1. This means that
prices do not rise consistently even in a bull phase. They rise Ior some time and aIter each
rise, they Iall. However, the Ialls are oI a lower magnitude then earlier. As a result, prices
reach higher levels with each rise.
Once the prices have risen very high, the bear phase in bound to start i.e., price will start
Ialling. Graph 2 shows the typical behavior oI prices on the stock exchange in the case oI a
P3

P2
T1 P1
T2
T3

Graph 2
Bear phase. It would be seen that prices are not Ialling consistently and, aIter each Iall, there
is a rise in prices. However, the rise is not much as to take the prices higher than the previous
peak. It means that each peak and trough is now lower than the previous peak and trough.
The theory argues that primary movements indicate basic trends in the market. It states
that iI cyclical swings oI stock market prices indices are successively higher, the market
trend is up and there is a bull market. On the contrary, iI successive highs and low are
successively lower, the market is on a downward trend and we are in bear market. This
theory thus relies upon a behavior oI the indices oI share market prices in perceiving the
trend in the market.


2) Secondary Movements: We have seen that even when the primary trend is upward, there
are also downward movements oI prices. Similarly, even where the primary trend is
downward, there is upward movement oI prices also. These movements are known as
secondary movements and are shorter in duration and are opposite in direction to the
primary movements. These movements normally last Irom three weeks to three months
and retrace 1/3 to 2/3 oI the previous advance in a bull market oI previous Iall in the bear
market.

3) Daily Movements: There are irregular Iluctuations which occur every day in the market.
These Iluctuations are without any deIinite trend. Thus is the daily share market price
index Ior a Iew months are plotted on the graph it will show both upward and downward
Iluctuations. These Iluctuations are the result oI speculative Iactor. An investment
manger really is not interested in the short run Iluctuations in share prices since he is not
a speculator. It may be reiterated that anyone who tries to gain Irom short run Iluctuations
in the stock market, can make money only be sheer chance. The investment manager
should scrupulously keep away Irom the daily Iluctuations oI the market. He is not a
speculator and should always resist the temptation oI speculating. Such a temptation is
always very attractive but must always be resisted. Speculation is beyond the scope oI the
job oI an investment manager.

Timing of investment decisions on the basis of Dow 1ones Theory:
Ideally speaking the investment manage would like to purchase shares at a time when they have
reached the lowest trough and sell them at a time when they reach the highest peak. However, in
practice, this seldom happens. Even the most astute investment manager can never know when
the highest peak or the lowest through have been reached. ThereIore, he has to time his decision
in such a manner that he buys the shares when they are on the rise and sells then when they are
on the Iall. It means that he should be able to identiIy exactly when the Ialling or the rising trend
has begun.
This is technically known as identiIication oI the turn in the share market prices. IdentiIication oI
this turn is diIIicult in practice because oI the Iact that, even in a rising market, prices keep on


Ialling as a part oI the secondary movement. Similarly even in a Ialling market prices keep on
rising temporarily. How to be certain that the rise in prices or Iall in the same in due to a real turn
in prices Irom a bullish to a bearish phase or vice versa or that it is due only to short run
speculative trends?
Dow Jones Theory identiIies the turn in the market prices by seeing whether the successive peaks
and troughs are higher or lower than earlier.

II. RANDOM WALK THEORY:

The Iirst speciIication oI eIIicient markets and their relationship to the randomness oI prices
Ior things traded in the market goes to Samuelson and Mandelbrot. Samuelson has proved in
1965 that if a market has zero transaction costs, if all available information is free to all
interested parties, and if all market participants and potential participants have the same
horizons and expectations about prices, the market will be efficient and prices will fluctuate
randomly.
According to the Random Walk Theory, the changes in prices oI stock show independent
behavior and are dependent on the new pieces oI inIormation that are received but within
themselves are independent oI each other. Whenever a new price oI inIormation is received in the
stock market, the market independently receives this inIormation and it is independent and
separate Irom all the other prices oI inIormation. For example, a stock is selling at Rs. 40 based
on existing inIormation known to all investors. AIterwards, the news oI a strike in that company
will bring down the stock price to Rs. 30 the next day. The stock price Iurther goes down to Rs.
25. Thus, the Iirst Iall in stock price Irom Rs. 40 to Rs. 30 is caused because oI some inIormation
about the strike. But the second Iall in the price oI a stock Irom Rs. 30 to Rs. 25 is due to
additional inIormation on the type oI strike. ThereIore, each price change is independent oI the
other because each inIormation has been taken in, by the stock market and separately
disseminated. However, independent pieces oI inIormation, when they come together
immediately aIter each other show that the price is Ialling but each price Iall is independent oI the
other price Iall.


The basic essential Iact oI the Random Walk Theory is that the inIormation on stock prices is
immediately and Iully spread over that other investors have Iull knowledge oI the inIormation.
The response makes the movement oI prices independent oI each other. Thus, it may be said that
the prices have an independent nature and thereIore, the price oI each day is diIIerent. The theory
Iurther states that the Iinancial markets are so competitive that there is immediate price
adjustment. It is due to the eIIective communication system through which inIormation can be
disturbed almost anywhere in the country. This speed oI inIormation determines the eIIiciency oI
the market.
III. CAPITAL ASSETS PRICING MODEL CAPM): CAPM provides a
conceptual Iramework Ior evaluating any investment decision. It is used to estimate the
expected return oI any portIolio with the Iollowing Iormula:

E Rp) Rf +Bp E Rm) - Rf )
Where,
ERp) Expected return oI the portIolio
Rf Risk Iree rate oI return
Bp Beta portIolio i.e. market sensitivity index
ERm) Expected return on market portIolio
ERm)-Rf] Market risk premium

The above model oI portIolio management can be used eIIectively to:-
Estimate the required rate oI return to investors on company`s common stock.

Evaluate risky investment projects involving real Assets.

Explain why the use oI borrowed Iund increases the risk and increases the rate oI return.

Reduce the risk oI the Iirm by diversiIying its project portIolio.


IV. MOVING AVERAGE: It reIers to the mean oI the closing price which changes
constantly and moves ahead in time, there by encompasses the most recent days and deletes
the old one.

V. MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY: Modern PortIolio Theory quantiIies the
relationship between risk and return and assumes that an investor must be compensated Ior
assuming risk. It believes in the maximization oI return through a combination oI
securities. The theory states that by combining securities oI low risks with securities oI
high risks success can be achieved in making a choice oI investments. There can be various
combinations oI securities. The modern theory points out that the risk oI portIolio can be
reduced by diversiIication. Harry Markowitz and William Sharpe have developed this
theory.

VI. MARKOWITZ THEORY: Markowitz has suggested a systematic search Ior optimal
portIolio. According to him, the portIolio manager has to make probabilistic estimates oI
the Iuture perIormances oI the securities and analyse these estimates to determine an
eIIicient set oI portIolios. Then the optimum set oI portIolio can be selected in order to suit
the needs oI the investors. The Iollowing are the assumptions oI Markowitz Theory:

Investors make decisions on the basis oI expected utility maximization.
In an eIIicient market, all investors react with Iull Iacts about all securities in the
market.
Investors` utility is the Iunction oI risk and return on securities.
The security returns are co-related to each other by combining the diIIerent
securities.
The combination oI securities is made in such a way that the investor gets
maximum return with minimum oI risk.
An eIIicient portIolio exists, when there is lowest level oI risk Ior a speciIied level
oI expected return and highest expected return Ior a speciIied amount oI portIolio
risk.


The risk oI portIolio can be reduced by adding investments in the portIolio.
VII. SHARPE`S THEORY: William Sharpe has suggested a simpliIied method oI
diversiIication oI portIolios. He has made the estimates oI the expected return and
variance oI indexes which are related to economic activity. Sharpe`s Theory assumes that
securities returns are related to each other only through common relationships with basic
underlying Iactor i.e. market return index. Individual securities return is determined
solely by random Iactors and on its relationship to this underlying Iactor with the
Iollowing Iormula:
R
i
a
i +
B
i
I + e
i
Where, R
i
reIers to expected return on security
a
i
the intercept oI a straight line or alpha coeIIicient

B
i
slope oI straight-line or beta coeIIicient
I level oI market return index
e
i
error, i.e. residual risk oI the company.


RULES TO BE FOLLOWED BEFORE INVESTMENT IN
PORTFOLIO`S

1) Compile the Iinancials oI the companies in the immediate past 3 years such as turnover,
gross proIit, net proIit beIore tax, compare the proIit earning oI company with that oI the
industry average nature oI product manuIacture service render and it Iuture demand
,know about the promoters and their back ground, dividend track record, bonus shares in
the past 3 to 5 years ,reIlects company`s commitment to share holders the relevant
inIormation can be accessed Irom the RDC (Registrant oI Companies) published
Iinancial results Iinanced quarters, journals and ledgers.

2) Watch out the highs and lows oI the scripts Ior the past 2 to 3 years and their timing
cyclical scripts have a tendency to repeat their perIormance, this hypothesis can be true
oI all other Iinancial,

3) The higher the trading volume higher is liquidity and still higher the chance oI
speculation, it is Iutile to invest in such shares who`s daily movements cannot be kept
track, iI you want to reap rich returns keep investment over along horizon and it will
oIIset the wild intraday trading Iluctuation`s, the minor movement oI scripts may be
ignored, we must remember that share market moves in phases and the span oI each
phase is 6 months to 5 years.


CONCLUSION

From the above discussion it is clear that portIolio Iunctioning is based on market risk, so one
can get the help Irom the proIessional portIolio manager or the Merchant banker iI required
beIore investment because applicability oI practical knowledge through technical analysis can
help an investor to reduce risk. In other words Security prices are determined by money manager
and home managers, students and strikers, doctors and dog catchers, lawyers and landscapers,
the wealthy and the wanting. This breadth oI market participants guarantees an element oI
unpredictability and excitement. II we were all totally logical and could separate our emotions
Irom our investment decisions then, the determination oI price based on Iuture earnings would
work magniIicently. And since we would all have the same completely logical expectations,
price would only change when quarterly reports or relevant news was released.

'I believe the Iuture is only the past again, entered through another gate Sir Arthur wing
Pinero. 1893.

II price are based on investors` expectations, then knowing what a security should sell Ior
become less important than knowing what other investors expect it to sell Ior. 'There are two
times oI a man`s liIe when he should not speculate; when he can`t aIIord it and when he can
Mark Twin, 1897.

A Casino make money on a roulette wheel, not by knowing what number will come up next,
but by slightly improving their odds with the addition oI a '0 and '00. Yet many investors buy
securities without attempting to control the odds. II we believe that this dealings is not a
Gambling we have to start up it with intelligent way.



I can conclude Irom this project that portIolio management has become an important service
Ior the investors to identiIy the companies with growth potential. PortIolio managers can provide
the proIessional advice to the investors to make an intelligent and inIormed investment.

PortIolio management role is still not identiIied in the recent time but due it expansion oI
investors market and growing complexities oI the investors the services oI the portIolio
managers will be in great demand in the near Iuture.

Today the individual investors do not show interest in taking proIessional help but surely
with the growing importance and awareness regarding portIolio`s manager`s people will
deIinitely preIer to take proIessional help.



BIBLIOGRAPHY
REFERENCE BOOKS:
Security Analysis and Portfolio Management - Dr. P.K.BANDGAR
Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management

WEBLIOGRAPHY
SOURCES:

www.google.com
www.yahoo.com
www.wikipedia.com

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