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Questions 1 through 18 pre-midterm. Question 19 requires knowledge of the hypergeometric distribution which we will not cover this semester, Question 20 post-midterm. Questions 21 through 45, open answer (randomized across the entire course). Question 30 requires knowledge of the no-memory property which we will not cover this semester. 1. f(x) = 2x - 2 for 1x2. f(x) = 0 for all other y. P(X1.5) = ? 0 0.20 0.25 0.33 0.50 0.67 0.75 0.80 2. How many boxes of Cheerios can management expect to sell per consumer (i.e., average) if the Cheerios marketing department successfully lure consumer into collecting all 3 unique figurines as a set? (Assume that Cheerios randomly assigns exactly one of the three figurines, with equal likelihood, to each box. Also assume that there is no trading among consumers.) 3 4 4.5 5.5 6 7.5 8 9 3. After having three boys, a doctor tells a pregnant mother and father that they are due to have a girl. Which of the following answers best describes the doctors claim, assuming that the infants gender is independent of his/her siblings? Central Limit Theorem Empirical Rule Gamblers Fallacy Law of Large Numbers Law of Small Numbers Poisson Process The Bounce-Back Rule Law of Averages 4. If you toss a fair coin 8 times, what is the probability that you will observe exactly 4 heads out of the 8 tosses? 0.000 0.125 0.250 0.273 0.375 0.400 0.413 0.457

0.500

5. Based on the following random sample data: 2, 3, 4, 7 and the belief that the data are exponentially distributed, what is P(T5)? 0.75 0.71 0.26 0.55 0.45 6. What is the sample standard deviation for the following 5 values: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ? 1.00 1.41 1.50 1.58 2.00 2.36 2.50 4.00 7. To reduce costs, medical labs will occasionally pool blood to conduct one single test for the prevalence of a relatively rare disease. Example: Assume that 50 people had their blood drawn. The disease in this example is relatively rare (only 1 in 100 people have the disease). The lab takes a portion of each persons blood and pools the blood together. Then the lab conducts one test of the pooled blood. If the test is negative, then the lab personnel can conclude that all 50 people are negative. If the pooled blood test is positive, then the lab personnel will have to go back to the original blood specimens and conduct a test on each one, thereby incurring the cost of 51 tests (the original pooled test plus the 50 individual tests). If this example was repeated many times, what is the average number of tests? (You may assume independence.) 1.00 1.50 2.00 20.35 20.75 25.00 25.50 26.00 50.00 8. Jane is 35 and outspoken. She graduated with honors in Peace Studies and Political Science when she attended college nearly 15 years ago. Today she demonstrates with an un-named group which seeks social justice for the impoverished citizens of her community. Which is more probable of the two: Jane works as a bank teller Jane works as a bank teller and is active in Habitat for Humanity 9. For a normal distribution with =8 and =2, calculate P(X10). 0.3413 0.8413

0.6587 0.1587 10. P(Xk) = .4325 for the random variable X which is normally distributed with =1 and =1. What is k? -0.17 0.17 -1.495 1.495 0.83 1.17 -0.495 2.495 11. What is P(-1.5Z1.2)? .4332 .3849 .0483 .8181 .1819 12. What is the estimated P(X<10|X>5) for the following equally likely values of X: 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16? 0.20 0.25 0.40 0.60 0.80 13. Roll a die (singular for dice) once and observe its outcome. Then roll the die again and again until you observe the number from the initial roll. How many rolls do you expect it will take? How many rolls must you make to insure that the probability is better than one-half that you will observe your initial number? 6, 4 6, 3 6, 2 3, 4 3, 3 3, 2 14. P(Z1.5|Z1.0)=? .0919 .2745 .0668 .1587 .5791 .4209 15. X is a continuous random variable having equally likely values between and including 0 through 12. What is the mean? What is the standard deviation? 6.5, 12 6.5, 3.5 6, 12 6, 3.5

16. Forty percent of the American adult population tuned in to the Winter Olympics at least once. From a random sample of 100 American adults, what is the probability that 25 or fewer of the sample tuned in at least once? .625 .25 <.01 .01 .025 17. You sell smoke alarms for homes. One of the safety features of your alarm is a low battery warning: when the battery gets low, the alarm is designed to emit a beep every minute. Due to measurement variation, however, the actual elapsed time varies a little bit. Which of the following probability distributions best model the time elapsed between each beep? uniform (continuous) uniform (discrete) normal exponential poisson 18. What is the probability that the sum of 400 independent values from the exponential distribution with a mean of 1 is greater than 420? 0.00 0.16 0.35 0.65 0.84 19. What is the p-value for the proposition that an employer did not discriminate among 9 equally qualified applicants even though he hired only 1 of 5 Native-Americans during the same period that he hired 3 of 4 European-Americans? 0.05 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.25 20. You believe that the basketball shoe that your firm sells is the best in its class. To reinforce this idea, you want to demonstrate to the public that this shoe last longer than the shoe that holds the highest market share. To make your point, you collect data and test your hypothesis. Assuming that the people who volunteer for the experiment are compliant with any reasonable experimental design, which one of the following designs is superior to the other for determining longevity of the shoe? independent sample t-test for two means paired sample t-test for two means 21. A fair die (singular for dice) has a mean of 3.5 and a standard deviation of 1.7. How many throws of the fair die are necessary to have a better than 70% probability that the sum of the throws is greater than or equal to 35? 22. For the null hypothesis: "All KU School of Business graduates get a job offer within 1 month of graduation", the test statistic is the longest period between graduation and the

time elapsed since graduation until a job offer for two randomly selected graduates, and a rejection region that the test statistic is greater than 1 month. What is alpha? 23. A financial analyst has just received information that could affect the price of a particular stock in the next few days. She is 80% certain that the information is correct. If the information is correct, she believes the stock price will soon fall with a probability of 0.75. If the information is incorrect, she believes the stock price will soon fall with probability 0.50. If the stock price soon falls, what is the probability that the information was correct? 24. A batter hits the ball 20% of the time at bat. The batter gets three times at bat in each game, and there are 162 games each year. In a year, what would you expect the longest streak of consecutive games in which the batter hits at least one hit in each game? Assume that hits and games are independent. 25. As you know, the width of a Confidence Interval depends on three things: the inherent variability of the random variable, the level of confidence, and the sample size. If you increase the level of confidence and hold everything else constant, what can we say about the width of the confidence interval? 26. X is a random variable distributed according to the Weibull Distribution. After obtaining a random sample of 100 observations, the sample mean is 22 and the sample standard deviation is 10. Is it reasonable to believe that the population mean of the Weibull distribution is 25?

27. To reduce costs, a medical lab will pool blood to conduct one single test for the prevalence of a relatively rare disease. Assume that 25 people had their blood drawn. Since the disease is relatively rare (only 2 in 100 people have the disease), the lab takes a portion of each person's blood and pools the blood together. Then the lab conducts one test of the pooled blood. If the test is negative, then the lab personnel can conclude that all 25 people are negative. If the pooled blood test is positive, then the lab personnel will have to go back to the original blood specimens and conduct a test on each one. Let the random variable, X, represent the number of tests conducted for each group of 25 people. What is E(X)? 28. T is a random variable distributed according to the Exponential Distribution, defined by f(t ) = (0.01)e-0.01(t) . If you take a random sample of 100 observations, what is the estimated probability that the sample mean is greater than 150? 29. X is a random variable distributed according to the Normal Distribution, with known =200 and known =20. After taking a random sample of 25 observations, you calculate a sample mean of 205 and a sample standard deviation of 25. The probability of observing a sample mean of 205 or greater is given by the following expression: 30. The no memory property of the Exponential Distribution asserts that P(t>w+h | t>w) = 31. It is believed that gender and political party are not associated. The following data were obtained: Democrat Republican Women 60 40 Men 40 60 What is the proper value of the test statistic for these data?

Should you reject the null hypothesis? 32. What is the probability that three tosses of a fair coin turn up the same? 33. There is a statistically significant association between more education and financial wealth. One theory is that people who come from financially wealthy families can afford more and "better" education. Due to more education, some of these people will be financially wealthy. Also, some of these people will be financially wealthy as a result of their families, and not their education. This theory for explaining the association is best described as: 34. What is P(X=10 | X>5) for the following equal likely values of Y: 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 ? 35. The following data came from a continuous uniform distribution: 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10. What is the estimated probability that the mean of this uniform distribution is greater than 5? 36. Lasik is a process in which near-sighted people can have their vision permanently corrected by using a laser to re-contour their cornea (biological lens in the eye). If it was reported that 1 in 10,000 eyes are injured through the process, then answer the following question. Question: Assume that you had just had your left eye corrected through Lasik without injury. As the opthamologist moves the equipment over your right eye, you wonder what the probability is that your right eye will be without injury. The best answer is? What must you assume to arrive at your answer? 37. You have become a wildly successful e-tailer of basic clothes. You sell women's and men's khaki pants, khaki shorts, T-shirts, polo shirts, jeans, etc. online. Assume you make 900 sales per day online. An individual sale is at least one item, but may be more. Each of the 900 daily individual sales (dollar amount) roughly follows an exponential distribution with a mean of $25. This is because many sales are small, while a few are quite large. What is the estimated probability that the total sales (dollar amount) for a single day exceeds $21,000? 38. The following four observations were made on two variables, x and y, read as (x,y) for each observation: (0,1) (1,1) (2,2) (3,2). What is the linear correlation coefficient, r, for these data? Is the correlation coefficient, r, statistically significant (alpha = 0.05)? 39. The following four observations were made on two variables, x and y, read as (x,y) for each observation: (0,1) (1,1) (2,2) (3,2). Based on these data and the least squares method of simple linear regression, predict y for an x = 1. 40. The following BETAs were obtained for three stocks: 0.60 for Stock A; 1.00 for Stock B; and, 1.10 for Stock C. If the market's rate of return was 8% for a given period of timeand all other things being equal (e.g., ALPHAs and EPSILONS)then which of the three individual stocks would you expect to have had the highest rate of return for the same period of time? 41. Consider a marketer sending out two types of coupons to known customers. Each customer is randomly assigned to only one of the two types of coupons through a mailer. The marketer then tracks the profitability of each of the two groups. Which of the following designsclinical trial / cohort study / case-control studybest describes the marketer's approach? 42. There are ten equally likely outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. You randomly select one value, call it the initial value. Then, you continue to randomly select values, call them

followup selections, until you come up with the initial value. How many followup selections do you expect it will take? What is the fewest number of followup selections that insures that the probability is better than one-half that you will observe your initial value? (Note: this problem assumes values are selected "with replacement," which simply means that after each selection, there are still the same ten equally likely outcomes.) 43. The following data were obtained from 4 people from the Cheerios example in class: Pre-Test Value Post-test Value 25 24 30 31 20 19 16 13 What is the correct t-statistic and the degrees of freedom for these data? 44. As you know Hostess' Twinkies are really good. Why? because they do "Response Surface Designs" to identify the optimal baking temperature and optimal baking time. While the details are beyond the scope of our class, the Response Surface Design is much like our New York City Marathon data: you identify the best regression model and then, if appropriate, calculate the first-order derivative to identify the point along the curve yielding a slope of 0 (the minimum or maximum) for each variable. In the Twinkie case, we are interested in baking time and baking temperature. If we simplify our Twinkie problem to just baking temperature, we discover the following regression equation: Customer satisfaction (1-10 where 10 is best) = -200 + 10 (Temp) - 0.0125 (Temp)2. What is the best baking temperature based on this regression alone? 45. The following random sample data are from the uniform (continuous) distribution: 4, 4, 5, 6, 6. What is the estimated probability that the population mean of the uniform distribution is greater than 6?

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