October 26, 2008

Voters in TX-7 Looking for Change

Michael Skelly and John Culberson in Tight Race for Congress

To: Interested Parties

From: Ben Tulchin and Julie Lein, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

With less than two weeks until Election Day, wind energy businessman Michael
Skelly is in a heated race with incumbent Congressman John Culberson. Currently,
Skelly trails 44% - 49%, with 3% for the libertarian candidate and 4% undecided. The
fact that Culberson is under 50% as an incumbent, with Skelly within striking distance, in
what has been a traditionally Republican district is remarkable and demonstrates just
how competitive Skelly is in this district. Furthermore, with recent public polling showing
Barack Obama and Democrats leading Republicans countywide, Skelly has the
momentum as the campaign heads into the final week.

Skelly and Culberson in Tight Race

50
49

40
44

30

20

10

0 3 4
Skelly Culberson Parks Undecided

Driving Skelly’s strong performance is his consolidation of the Democratic base,

out-performing Culberson with the GOP base, and leading among independents. Skelly
draws nearly nine out of 10 Democrats (87% to only 9% for Culberson) and one in six
Republicans (13% to 82% for Culberson and 3% for Libertarian Drew Parks). Most
importantly, Skelly maintains an advantage among independent voters in the district,
46% Skelly – 40% Culberson, with 6% voting for Parks and 8% undecided.

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Texas CD-7 Survey Results 2

Skelly v. Culberson Vote Along Party Lines

Democrats Independents Republicans

+ 78 +6 -69
90 90 90

80 87 80 80
82
70 70 70

60 60 60

50 50 50

40 40 46 40
40
30 30 30

20 20 20

10 10 10
13
9 1 3 8 3 1
0 0
6 0
Skelly Culberson Parks Undecided Skelly Culberson Parks Undecided Skelly Culberson Parks Undecided

The trend for Skelly has been increasingly positive over time, as he continues to
narrow the divide with Culberson. Starting with an initial 19-point deficit last December,
Skelly has made steady progress over the course of the campaign and is now within just
five points in the horserace.
Upward trend for Skelly over Time

Skelly Culberson
60

50 54
52
48 49
40 44 44
39 39
37
30 33

20

10

12/12/2007 2/12/2008 4/12/2008 6/12/2008 8/12/2008 10/12/2008

Concerns over the economy continue to be the most resonant issue among
Houston voters, with over half (56%) of the district citing the economy, jobs, and the
financial crisis as their top concern for Congress. Among these economically-conscious
voters, Skelly maintains a 46% - 42% advantage over Culberson.

Overall, Michael Skelly’s message of bringing a new energy to Congress is

clearly resonating with CD-7 voters who are eager for change. Voters are
overwhelmingly pessimistic about the direction of the country, the incumbent
Congressman draws less than a majority support, and President Bush is unpopular in
the district – 37% favorable to 52% unfavorable – even though he won here by 26 points
in 2004. These voters are looking for change in Congress, and Michael Skelly is well
positioned to benefit from this demand for change and pull off an upset.

© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. October, 2008

Texas CD-7 Survey Results 3

Survey Methodology: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted a telephone survey

among 400 likely general election voters in the 7th Texas Congressional district from October 22-
23, 2008. The survey has a margin of error +/- 4.9%.

© 2008 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. October, 2008