2011 Atlas Standard Volume 11 - Giving Results Through Nov. 2011

the exclusive resource for monthly U.S.
charitable giving results, forecasts and analysis
2011 standard report volume 11

including results through november
The Atlas of Giving standard edition is the exclusive monthly resource for nationwide U.S. charitable giving results and forecasts. It provides monthly results and trends information for the past 12 months, as well as forecasts for the coming year. Commentary and practical suggestions are included in this complimentary tool.
P R O F E S S I O N A L
E D I T I O N
The Atlas of Giving PROFESSIONAL EDITION represents a quantum leap forward in fundraising intelligence. This detailed resource includes U.S. charitable giving results and forecasts by sector (religion, health, education, etc.), source (individuals, bequests, etc.) and state. Benefit from valuable information offered in this monthly report available via subscription.
custom
The Atlas of Giving Custom model applies the same methods used to create the Atlas of Giving to develop a forecasting algorithm unique to your organization. Your nonprofits gift history and other information is combined with economic and demographic variables to develop a custom revenue model. Realize exponential return on investment from this revolutionary opportunity.
info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 2

2011 ATLAS of Giving, info@atlasofgiving.com. This material is provided for the intended ATLAS of Giving, Pat. Pend., member only. Distribution of this information without express written permission is prohibited. The ATLAS of Giving forecasts are provided for informational purposes only. ATLAS of Giving disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any warranties of application for a specific purpose. Forecasts are updated monthly. Current month forecasts represent a +/-4% margin of error, increasing as projection lead time increases.
contents
national giving giving at a glance results & trends
calendar year to date results & trends last month results & trends 3 month results & trends 6 month results & trends 12 month results & trends
p a ge 4 p a ge 6
forecast
calendar year forecast this month forecast 3 month forecast 6 month forecast 12 month forecast
p a ge 7
insight & analysis model calculations faqs contact us coming next month
p a ge 1 0 p a ge 1 5 p a ge 1 6 p a ge 2 0 p a ge 2 2
From time to time, reported economic variables are revised by the reporting entity. I n cases where variables related to the ATLAS of Giving data are revised, our figures will be updated to reflect the most current reported data.

giving at a glance
national results highlights
Year to date charitable giving through November 2011 totals $344.39 billion up 7.5% over last year. A year end increase in giving is a welcomed development.
LAST MONTH RESULTS ($ BILLIONS)
$29.07
$29.19
up 0.4%
October
N o v e mb e r
Giving for the month of November was up 0.4% over October.
12 MONTH GIVING TREND ($ BILLIONS)
2009 / 2010 2010 / 2011
29.31 27.91 28.16 28.55 28.72
29.11 28.70
28.92
29.07 28.54 28.21
29.19
26.80 26.22 26.18 26.27
27.06 26.48 26.22
26.89 26.36
26.99
27.32
27.47

national results forecast

The forecast indicates that 2011 giving will total $345.73 billion 7.4% higher than last year. December giving will be up 0.2% versus November. It is projected that 2012 giving will slow early in the year, but show improvement overall.
NEXT MONTH FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) $29.19 $29.25
up 0.2%
N o v e mb er
D e c e mb er
2010 / 2011 12 MONTH GIVING FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) 2011 / 2012 30.30 29.87
29.91 29.59 29.25
29.71
29.46
29.77
30.04 29.57 29.71 29.39
29.31 28.55 27.91 28.16 28.72
29.11 28.70
28.92 28.54 28.21
29.07 29.19

national giving
giving results & trends
November giving was up 0.4% to $29.19 billion, bringing the year to date total to $316.48 billion an increase of 7.6% versus last year.
CALENDAR YTD TREND ($ BILLIONS)
Up 7.6%
calendar ytd
$294.04
$316.48 last month
Up 6.3%
2010 2011
(versus same period prior year)
past 3 months Amount ($ Billions) December January February March April May June July August September October November Total 2009 / 2010 $26.22 $26.18 $26.27 $26.80 $27.06 $26.48 $26.22 $26.89 $26.36 $26.99 $27.32 $27.47 $320.26 2010 / 2011 $27.91 $28.16 $28.55 $28.72 $29.31 $29.11 $28.70 $28.92 $28.54 $28.21 $29.07 $29.19 $344.39 % Change 6.4% 7.6% 8.7% 7.2% 8.3% 9.9% 9.5% 7.5% 8.3% 4.5% 6.4% 6.3% 7.5% past 12 months
Up 5.7%
past 6 months
Up 7.1%
Up 7.5%

national giving
giving forecast
December giving is forecast to increase 0.2% versus November for a total of $29.25 billion. Calendar year end giving is expected to be 6.6% higher than 2010.
calendar year forecast
Up 7.4%
CALENDAR YEAR FORECAST ($ BILLIONS)
$321.95
$345.73 this month
Up 4.8%
2010 2011
(versus same period last year)
Amount ($ Billions) December January February March April May June July August September October November Total
2010 / 2011 $27.91 $28.16 $28.55 $28.72 $29.31 $29.11 $28.70 $28.92 $28.54 $28.21 $29.07 $29.19 $344.39
2011 / 2012 $29.25 $29.59 $29.91 $29.71 $29.46 $29.77 $29.57 $29.39 $29.71 $30.04 $29.87 $30.30 $356.57
% Change 4.8% 5.1% 4.8% 3.4% 0.5% 2.3% 3.0% 1.6% 4.1% 6.5% 2.8% 3.8% 3.5%
next 3 months
Up 4.9%
Up 3.5%
next 6 months
next 12 months
Up 3.5%

custom
How much money will YOU raise next quarter next year?
The same methods that were used to create the Atlas of Giving can be employed to create an Atlas of Giving Custom model for your organization. We can identify a unique forecasting algorithm that is specifically tailored to an individual nonprofit. Your organizations giving history and other information is used with economic and demographic variables to develop a custom revenue version. The Atlas Custom forecasting tool creates efficiencies and opportunities that have never before been available
Schedule fundraising activities and campaigns

to maximize their potential
Plan budgets with more precision than ever Realize exponential return on investment
Email today for more information.
info@atlasofgiving.com
PROFESSIONAL EDITION
insight & analysis
insight & analysis
economic factors that affect giving
The Atlas of Giving is built on the fact that charitable giving is directly related to specific factors in the economy. The factors are different for each sector, each source and each state. It is also true that the factors that affect individual organizations are unique to each organization. The Atlas of Giving has definitively identified what factors are relevant and has developed specific formulas that provide precise monthly measurement and forecasting of giving by sector, source and state. November economic factors show some interesting and encouraging things Retail Sales for the 12 months ending in November are up 7.9% over the previous 12 month period. This is interesting in that aggregate 2011 giving growth has been tracking closely with the growth in retail sales for the same timeframe. However, this association does not have a strong historical correlation. In fact, Black Friday weekend sales (Thursday through Sunday) were up 16% from last year. So, while the growth in giving is slowing, retail sales growth rates are increasing. Interest Rates are at historically low levels and have remained steady for most of 2011. This is good news for charitable giving. Paying less for interest on borrowed funds means that individuals and corporations have more liquidity for making charitable gifts. The Unemployment Rate improved to 8.6% from 9.0% the previous month and showed the second straight month of improvement. There is no doubt that unemployment has a significant and lasting effect on charitable giving. Unemployed individuals have bigger financial priorities than making gifts. The effects on giving last even after re-employment. Deferred maintenance items, postponed major purchases, increased debt and replenishing saving take preference over charitable giving for several years. GDP is growing though not as fast as originally forecast. A growing GDP is a great sign for charitable giving though the rate of growth continues to be anemic. The problems in the current economy are more political than financial and that is good news for continued U.S. economic growth. Consumer Confidence increased significantly in November. This indicates that people are feeling better about the trajectory of the economy and are feeling more secure. This should be good for giving. However, there is only a weak statistical correlation between consumer confidence and national giving. Leading Economic Indicators are up. This suggests that the risk of the economy slipping into another recession is fading. This is very good news for giving.

insight & analysis
Stock Prices were mixed in November. Following a major increase in October, prices slid through most of November. Only a stunning rally in the last three trading days pushed the Dow into positive territory for the month. The bad news is that most U.S. stocks lost value during the month. Stock values are a significant contributor to giving by several sectors, sources and specific organizations.
other factors affecting giving

Year-end Giving is in full swing. Interestingly, evidence suggests that year-end giving is not so much a function of donors being in a giving mood, but rather that nonprofits ramp up solicitation efforts and the media keeps the spotlight on charitable giving at this time of year. Winter Weather has not yet cut into giving in a significant way. With severe winter weather, financial resources are diverted toward increased heating costs, snow removal and transportation costs. Fortunately, this season has been mild so far for much of the U.S. Political Fundraising redirects money from individuals and corporations that might normally go toward charities. With the presidential primary season in full swing and increased attention on all campaigns, expect that some charitable giving impact will be felt. The U.S. Tax Policy future is currently uncertain. Talk continues regarding a diminishment or discontinuance of the charitable income tax deduction. Higher tax rates are being vigorously suggested for high income earners. Middle class tax relief is also being discussed along with a myriad of other proposals. Some things are certain. Higher taxes on the wealthy will negatively impact giving to those organizations and sectors that depend on major gifts and campaigns. A lessening of middle class tax rates would be favorable for grass roots nonprofits that rely on many small gifts and special events for support.

insight & analysis
best and worst performers by state*
The winners are Florida, Illinois and Pennsylvania have experienced the most growth this calendar year to date versus last year. Montana and Alaska experienced more than 1% growth in giving versus last month.
Keep an eye on New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Florida are forecast to have the least growth over the next year.
* For more detailed information, subscribe to the Atlas of Giving Professional Edition an exclusive monthly resource for giving results and forecasts by sector, source and state.

insight & analysis
suggestions for professional practitioners
Fundraising: The forecast for giving growth in the next 12 months is less than half the growth experienced in the last twelve months. Consult the monthly giving forecast to schedule your event and solicitation activities for the times that conditions will be best. According to the current forecast, April 2012 is to be avoided if possible when scheduling solicitations. Church giving is forecast to lag overall giving. This would be a good time for churches and faith based organizations to test nontraditional fundraising techniques used by secular nonprofits. Direct mail and fundraising events could create new sources of income. Consider moving events, mailings and other solicitations usually held in October up to September. Solicitation activities held in September 2012 should produce twice as much growth as the same activities held in October 2012. Be sure to consult the forecast for your sector and the states that impact your giving to make decisions on allocation of your fundraising resources. Remember that it is 5 10 times less expensive to retain an existing donor than it is to acquire a new one. Shifting some resources away from acquisition and toward retention will always pay dividends regardless of the giving forecast or current giving economy.

insight & analysis
suggestions for professional practitioners* (continued)
Budgeting: For fiscal years already underway, adjust budget expenditures now to account for flat to -3.0% charitable giving results through July of 2012. For planning budget for fiscal years not yet underway, anticipate declining giving revenue through June 2012, then prepare for a period of growth late in the year.

model calculations
model calculations
precise results and trends
Mathematical analysis of over 60 variables and 42 years of comprehensive giving data was used to create the Atlas of Giving model. Results calculations correlate to overall giving in the U.S. at a rate of 99.5%. The margin of error for the model is +/- 4% in the current month.
reliable forecasts
Margins of error for projections increase with time as illustrated below.
FORECAST MARGIN OF ERROR $29.00 $28.00 $27.00 $26.00 $25.00 $24.00 $23.00 Margins of error for forecast projections increase with time.
Forecasts have proven very reliable since the Atlas of Giving was created in 2010. Accuracy rates range from over 91% for one year projections to over 99% for one month forecasts.
Forecast one month 3 months 6 months 12 months
Reliability 99.5% 98-99% 94-95% 91-92%

faqs
faqs
What is the Atlas of Giving?
The Atlas of Giving is the economic intelligence tool for charitable giving. The Atlas was originally created by PhilanthroMAX, LLC (www.philanthromax.com). It is a precise mathematical formula that relies on specific, defined economic and demographic input factors. The formula accurately matches published giving data for the last 42 years. Its coefficient of correlation to past published data is 99.5%. Because the factors included in the formula are reported monthly, the Atlas of Giving is able to measure charitable giving as it occurs monthly and does not need to rely on limited surveys or delayed reporting data. Other charitable giving indexes rely on surveys and fail to account for large segments of the giving economy such as contributions to churches, donor advised funds, some of the largest nonprofits, many small nonprofits and private foundations.
Each monthly Atlas of Giving includes results and trends for the past 12 months as well as forecasts for the next 12 months.
The Atlas of Giving accounts for the entire giving economy and is the most precise measurement of total charitable giving in the United States. The most exciting innovation that comes from this technology is the ability to reliably forecast charitable giving. The complimentary Atlas of Giving Standard report and the subscription-based Atlas Professional Edition contain a monthly measurement of charitable giving, a 12 month forecast of charitable giving (updated monthly), insight and analysis of factors and events that affect giving and practical suggestions based on the giving environment and forecast. The Atlas of Giving PROFESSIONAL EDITION (Atlas PRO) also contains the monthly measurement, forecast and analysis by 8 sectors, 4 sources and 50 states plus the District of Columbia. It also includes a complete PowerPoint presentation that is updated each month. The introductory membership price is $99 annually for the monthly Atlas Pro report and PowerPoint presentation.

faqs
What are the practical benefits of the Atlas of Giving?
Raise more money with vital, timely information. Respond immediately to events that affect giving. Adjust spending and promotion to current giving conditions and forecasts. Create more effective and efficient budgets. Examine fundraising results in real time. Review chapter / unit / region results in real time. Evaluate staff performance with an accurate benchmark. Gain a competitive fundraising edge. Make your organization more effective and efficient. Monitor effects of events and policy changes on charitable giving.
How was the Atlas of Giving created?

The Atlas of Giving formulas were built upon the hypothesis that charitable giving is directly tied to macroeconomic factors and macro-demographic factors. A team of 25 PhD level mathematicians, analysts and statisticians evaluated more than 60 possible variables and their interactions with charitable giving outcomes over four decades. The hypothesis was proven: Charitable giving is directly tied to economic and demographic factors and only the Atlas of Giving knows exactly what they are. The research team used the relevant identified factors to create an algorithm that was compared with published annual giving data dating back to 1968. The algorithm correlates to 42 years of published giving history with a coefficient of correlation of 99.5%. Other indexes and estimates like Giving USA and the Blackbaud Index are based on surveys. These are not statistically representative of all nonprofits and churches. The Atlas of Giving does not rely on surveys. The input variables used in the Atlas algorithms are a handful of publicly reported economic and demographic measurements that are updated and reported each month. These variables also make a reliable forecast a reality. Therefore, the Atlas is able to use the algorithms to measure giving as it occurs monthly and provide an updated monthly forecast. Unlike any other index or measurement, the Atlas also monitors current events (political changes, disasters, tax policy changes, important economic factors like unemployment, the stock market, consumer confidence, etc.) and provides analysis of their impact on current and future giving. Indexes and surveys are rearward looking. The Atlas of Giving is forward-focused and provides real nonprofit management utility.

faqs
How accurate is the Atlas?
There will never be a centralized database that contains all charitable contributions made to 1.3 million nonprofits and churches. Many economic measurements (retail sales, unemployment, manufacturing inventories, etc.) rely on established formulas (algorithms) to establish a benchmark for measuring or estimating. The benchmark is then used to measure changes, establish trends and create forecasts. Consistency and fidelity of the benchmark is vital in measuring change and providing a forecast. The Atlas of Giving uses this proven methodology. The Atlas of Giving measurement benchmarks are solid. They account for all gifts to all charities and churches. These established benchmarks are highly accurate because they do not rely on surveys, samples, out of date tax information or reporting from charitable organizations and associations. They cannot be influenced by special interests, the media, corporations or charities. Atlas of Giving measurements are more accurate than any others that exist. The Atlas forecast is very precise. For 12 months of future forecasts, the Atlas forecast is 90-91% accurate; for 6 months 94-95%; for 3 months 98-99% and for 1 month 99100%. Like any forecast, however, the level of reliability decreases and the margin of error increases as the forecasting period increases. The forecast is updated monthly to account for changing events, economic conditions and policy changes and it is the only resource that provides analysis of events that impact charitable giving as they unfold. It is also the only resource that measures all sectors and sources of U.S. giving monthly.
August 2010 to July 2011 one month 3 months 6 months 12 months
Forecast $26.51 $78.96 $156.64 $309.70
Actual $26.38 $77.61 $166.16 $339.50
Reliability 99.5% 98.3% 94.2% 91.2%
The chart illustrates that in 2010, the Atlas projections for August 2010 were 99.5% accurate. Projections at that time for the next 12 months (through July of 2011) were 91.2% accurate.

faqs
How is the Atlas of Giving different from other reports and indexes?
The Atlas of Giving is the only resource that provides an ongoing forecast of giving which is updated every month. Other resources are singularly focused on looking back in time. The Atlas of Giving is forward-focused. The Atlas provides information that has immediate utility and provides future benefits. Other resources are available only on an annual basis and some are released six months after the end of the reporting year. The Atlas reports national giving as it occurs monthly in the current year. The Atlas of Giving analyzes the effect of current events on charitable giving. Others analyze historical events and their impact on last years giving.
Is the Atlas of Giving useful for all types of NPOs (churches, schools, local charities, hospitals, etc.)?
The Atlas is useful for any organization, church or business which derives some portion of its income from charitable giving.
How does the Atlas of Giving account for world events and economic changes?
The ability to respond to and measure the impact of change on giving is an inherent component of the Atlas of Giving. Because the Atlas is updated monthly, Atlas followers get real-time analysis of changes and events as they unfold.
Can the Atlas of Giving be customized for my organization?

Absolutely. We can create a unique model based on your giving data in conjunction with other variables that will generate a custom forecast and index for your organization or church. Please contact us at info@atlasofgiving.com for more information about the Atlas of Giving Custom model.

faqs
What is PhilanthroMAX?
PhilanthroMAX is an innovative firm that created the Atlas of Giving. It was founded upon the idea that philanthropic effectiveness can be maximized through products that provide analytics, evaluation and databased planning and accountability. PhilanthroMAX is led by experienced and successful fundraising executives who understand both sides of the philanthropic equation giving and getting. We specialize in providing products that use business principles and techniques to make giving and getting more effective, efficient and accountable. Our solutions can help: Deliver better results or improve effectiveness and efficiency. Expertly start new philanthropic ventures. Develop objective analysis of existing programs. Create product solutions for donor retention, planned giving, major gifts and annual programs. Achieve success during uncertain times.
Will PhilanthroMAX perform special analytic projects for clients?

Yes. We can accommodate a wide variety of special needs. Please contact us to discuss your individual objectives and requirements. For more information about PhilanthroMAX, please visit www.philanthromax.com.
contact us
info@atlasofgiving.com 877.414.0078

Raise more money now.

Meet short-term revenue goals Improve donor retention Open new revenue sources Expand existing income streams
ContactustodaytogetGUARANTEEDresults. Ifwedontproduce,youdontpay.Itsthatsimple.
877-414-0078 | philanthromax.com
PhilanthroMAXleaderscreatedtheAtlasofGivingTM. Letusputouringenuitytoworkforyourorganization.
The Atlas of Giving is updated monthly based on the most current data available to help you make educated decisions and raise more money.
coming in the next monthly report

Year End Results and Updated Forecasts through December 2012!
How will 2011 wrap up? How will stock market fluctuations impact year end contributions? What is the outlook for the next 12 months?
Be the first to see the future of charitable giving!
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2011 Atlas Standard Volume 11 - Giving Results Through Nov. 2011

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the exclusive resource for monthly U.S.

charitable giving results, forecasts and analysis

2011 standard report volume 11

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 2

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 3

LAST MONTH RESULTS ($ BILLIONS)

Giving for the month of November was up 0.4% over October.

12 MONTH GIVING TREND ($ BILLIONS)

2009 / 2010 2010 / 2011

29.31 27.91 28.16 28.55 28.72

29.07 28.54 28.21

26.80 26.22 26.18 26.27

27.06 26.48 26.22

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 4

national results forecast

NEXT MONTH FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) $29.19 $29.25

29.91 29.59 29.25

30.04 29.57 29.71 29.39

29.31 28.55 27.91 28.16 28.72

28.92 28.54 28.21

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 5

$316.48 last month

(versus same period prior year)

(versus same period prior year)

(versus same period prior year)

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 6

CALENDAR YEAR FORECAST ($ BILLIONS)

$345.73 this month

(versus same period last year)

(versus same period last year)

(versus same period last year)

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 7

Schedule fundraising activities and campaigns

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 10

other factors affecting giving

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 11

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 12

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 13

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 14

Forecast one month 3 months 6 months 12 months

Reliability 99.5% 98-99% 94-95% 91-92%

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 15

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 16

How was the Atlas of Giving created?

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 17

August 2010 to July 2011 one month 3 months 6 months 12 months

Forecast $26.51 $78.96 $156.64 $309.70

Actual $26.38 $77.61 $166.16 $339.50

Reliability 99.5% 98.3% 94.2% 91.2%

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 18

Can the Atlas of Giving be customized for my organization?

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 19

Will PhilanthroMAX perform special analytic projects for clients?

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 20

Raise more money now.

coming in the next monthly report

Be the first to see the future of charitable giving!

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 11 standard report page 22

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