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Fuzzy Logic Based Contingency Analysis


Power System Research Group University of Strathclyde

Abstract: This paper deals with the contingency selection problem

in power system. The main objective is to explore the application of fuzzy logic on contingency selection for voltage ranking. It shows how fuzzy logic could be used to tune both the weighting factors and the exponent index and hence reduce the masking effect. Firstly, the post-contingent voltages are expressed in fuzzy logic. Secondly, fuzzy logic rules are applied to rank the contingencies. There are two types of fuzzy control rules: Mamdani- and Sougenorules. The first part of this paper investigates the use of the Mamdani method for voltage ranking. The second part examines the application of Sougeno method to voltage ranking. Numerical results for the IEEE-30 bus test system are given. At the end of this paper there is a comparison study between these methods. It is found that the Sougeno method is much more flexible, suitable, and gives better results than the Mamdani method. Keywords: Contingency analysis, voltage ranking, fuzzy logic, masking effect, weighting factors, exponent index, Sougeno method, and Mamdani method.

time the non-critical cases are removed fiom the list. These methods depend basically on the local solution methods [7] and bounding methods [1-61 which use the local nature of an outage and the network is divided into two or three subnetworks. The first sub-network contains the buses near the outage. In many cases it can be extended to three or four tiers or can be determined by the return path of the active power [3], then a complete ac load flow will be run for the subnetwork. The second sub network contains the boundary buses between the first and the third sub-network, which is the rest of the system. Since the cornerstone of these methods depends basically on the determination of the first subnetwork, any error in identification of this sub-network will lead to incorrect results. The main difficulty of this method is the determination of the first network. Ranking methods [S-151 use a performance index as scalar function to describe the effects of an outage on the whole network. Ranking methods can be divided into two subgroups depending on the way in which the performance index is formulated, direct methods [S-101 and indirect methods 111-141. For line flows or MW ranking direct methods are used and they give good results. Those methods are many times faster than the indirect schemes. However; the application of direct scheme for voltage ranking gives unreliable results. There have been considerable efforts to use the direct method for voltage ranking [S-lo], but the results obtained are not as accurate as the indirect scheme. On the other hand the indirect scheme is slower than the direct scheme. The indirect methods use a variety of approaches starting fi-om using only the first iteration of the ac load flow, one iteration of the fast-decoupled load flow, and distribution factors methods [l l-141. The main drawback of these methods is the masking effect. A few attempts have been made to remedy the masking effect [15-171 but until now there is no an effective method to completely eliminate the masking effect. By masking effect it means that a noncritical contingency case can take the position of a critical one. In [17] it was stated that the second order term is the main cause for the masking effect and it recommended that a higher exponent index should be used. The use of high exponent index for all values of the bus voltage magnitude will increase computational time. This paper attempts to present a new method for voltage ranking taking into account how to reduce the masking effect by tuning both the exponent index and weighting factors by using fuzzy logic approach [18-231. A new adaptive technique is used to tune the exponent index, and it depends on the actual voltage deviation. Also this paper presents an altemative method to



Security assessment of a power system has two functions. The first is to detect any violation in the actual system operating state. The second function is contingency analysis ~51. Contingency analysis behaves like a fictitious test performed on a list of postulated contingency cases (single or multiple equipment outages). Those cases that would create line flow; voltage and reactive power violation should be identified and ranked in order of their severity for more detailed study.

Usually contingency analysis is divided into three parts, contingency definition, selection, and evaluation [25]. For more than two decades contingency selection has received considerable attention whose aim is to reduce the original long list of contingencies by selecting only those cases that would result in limit violations. There are two approaches for performing contingency selection; ranking methods and screening methods. In screening methods 11-61 the most severe cases are identified and they are given top priority in the contingency list for more detailed ac analysis, at the same

Paper accepted for presentation at the International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies 2000, City University, London, 4-7 April 2000.
0-7803-5902-X/00/$10.00 02000 IEEE.

tune the weighting factors. There was a previous attempt to use fuzzy logic in contingency analysis [24], but that attempt was based on Mamdani control rules, and it gave many misrankings. In this paper two approaches are considered, the first method is based on Mamdani control rules, which can be used to tune the weighting factor. The other method is based on Sougeno control rules, which can be used to tune the exponent index. 11. FUZZY LOGIC Fuzzy logic is a superset of conventional (Boolean) logic. The fuzzy set can handle the concept of partial truth-values false". between "completely true" and "completely Fuzzy logic control is very powerful in many control system applications due to the following advantages [20]: it allows the use of linguistic expressions to describe the behaviour of the system. Using this property, it is possible to imitate the action of the operator. The second advantage is that fuzzy logic control is inherently non-linear and is thus able to perform control actions, which are not possible with linear contro1. Steps in using fuzzy logic control to voltage ranking

1. Discretization of the universe of discourse.

In this stage the universe of discourse is divided into a certain number of segments. Each segment is given a certain label and is assigned grade of membership values.
2. Choosing the membership functions for the labels.

Rule base

Fuzzy control rules are used to represent the knowledge implemented in the controller. There are two types of fuzzy control rules: Mamdani- and Sougeno-rules. Mamdani control rules have the following form:

, IF x is S , THEN y is Y
The conclusion, yz in this case, is a fuzzy variable. While in the case of Sougeno control rule ,the conclusion is a function and has the following form: IFx is S, THEN


In applying fuzzy logic control to contingency analysis, one should identify the input and output to the fuzzy logic controller (FLC). In our case the input will be the normalized voltage deviations and the output will be the value of the severity index. The main parts of the fuzzy logic controller are [20,22, and 231:
1) Fuzzification of the input 2) Knowledge base

The output y in this case is not necessary to be a fuzzy value. It will be shown that in ranking process, the Sougeno scheme is deterministic and is more flexible than the Mamdani one
4) Defuzzification process
The output of the fuzzy reasoning should be defuzzified. In

3) 4)

Fuzzy inference using approximate reasoning Defuzzification process Fuzzification of the input

this paper the center of gravity [23] method is used for defuzzification. III. APPLICATION TO VOLTAGE RANKING


In this stage the non-fuzzy input is coded into fuzzy logic. The choice of the membership function is an important task in designing FLC. The number and shapes of the membership functions and how they are related to each other, as well as their overlaps, determine the resulting controller outputs which are expressed as functions of the inputs [20,221

A. Identification of control variables for input and output When a contingency occurs in a power system, some variables may exceed their limits. The most important variables in a power system are the line flows, the bus voltage magnitudes and the generated reactive power. In contingency analysis for voltage ranking the variables are the bus voltage magnitudes and the generated reactive power. In this paper only the bus voltage magnitudes are considered. So the input to the FLC will be the normalized voltage deviations given by the equation

Knowledge base and f z y inference uz

The knowledge base is the cornerstone of any FLC and has

two components: namely database and fuzzy rule base [20,23]:

Database The construction of any database contains the following two aspects [203: where


Output Linguistic Term

Y 1
00 .



80 .






- + +





150 -+ 1000

Vi is the post contingency voltage at bus i

and are the maximum and minimum voltage respectively at bus i. The output variable will be the severity index showing the degree of severity of the contingency. B. Fuzzification process




The shape of the membership fimction: Input and Output

The universe of discourse for the input and the output variables

Before choosing the membership function one should first define the universe of discourse. In practical power system the values of the bus voltage is restricted to certain limits (for example 0.95 I vi 51.05). In the event of contingency the value of the bus voltage may exceed this limit, but if it is below certain value (say 0.80 for example) this may lead to voltage collapse. So i such cases the program should give an n alarm. The universe of discourse in our case will be in the 0.90 5 vi 5 1.1 range of ( ) and outside these limits the program will generate an alarm showing that the contingency is critical. Within these ranges the normalized voltage deviation will be [0-41. The alarm signal could trigger the use of a high exponent index to reflect the severity of the contingency.
2) Choosing the set of linguistic terms

The selection of the shape and the number of the membership input functions will affect the ranking process. For example the membership function of the isosceles triangle given in figure 1 which is used in [24] is not suitable for contingency analysis. This can be explained by the following example: if the value of the normalized voltage deviation is [0.2 and 0.81 both of them will give the same membership value [0.3]. This means that the isosceles triangle function is not suitable for contingency analysis. Instead the saw tooth function as given in figure 2 is chosen. Figure 3 shows the complete membership fimctions for the input. The membership function of the output is shown in figure 4
C. Fuzzy control rule

In this part of the paper Mamdani control rule will be considered which has the following general form

As previously mentioned the number of linguistic terms will affect the final results. The larger the number of linguistic terms the more accurate should be the results [l]. In our investigation the number of linguistic terms is 8. The name and range of each linguistic term is given in table 1.
Input Linguistic Term 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.4 2 8 . Normalized Voltage -+ -+ -+ -+ + -+ -+ Deviation. 0.8 1.2 1.8 22 . 26 . 3.0 3 4 . Table 1 Range of the linguistic terms for the input

Figure 1 Isosceles membership function

32 .

40 .

The output variable is the severity index, which shows the degree of severity of the contingency. The linguistic terms and the range of each linguistic term for the output are given in table 2.

Figure 2 Sawtooth membership function


The general form of Sougeno fuzzy inference rule is:

Membership Function

L l



/I / I / I / I / I / I



Normalued vonage Denabon





Figure 3 membership functions for the input


In the performance index ranking method, the ranking accuracy will depend on the weighting factors [26] and the value of the exponent index [I7 and 271. In the Mamdani method, the fuzzy logic controller is geared towards the adjustment of the weighting factors. It has been shown in previous investigation that the value of the exponent index has a significant effect on the ranking accuracy [17]. Sougeno method reflects better on the adjustment of the exponent index. In this case the rules used as follows:

0 0 0


x x x x x x

is is is is is is

SI S2 S3 S4 S5 S6


y is zero y=x2 y=x4 y=x6 y=x8 y=x'O

The ranges of the linguistic variables are given in table 6.

Term NormalizedVoltage Deviation. Figure 4 The membership function of the output







- + +

+ - +

0.6 0.8 1.6 2.6 3.4 Table 3 Range of the linguistic variables for the input



I (a set of conditions are satisfied) f

consequences can be inferred)


(a set of

A fuzzy control rule is a fuzzy conditional statement in which the antecedent is a condition and the consequent is a control action [23]. The following f z y rules will be applied in our uz case:

In this section the results of the IEEE-30 bus system will be summarized. The results obtained fiom the performance index method (PI) and the proposed fuzzy logic methods will be compared. The performance index is defined by the followhg equation [7]

0 0


x is SI THEN y is zero x is S2 THEN y is Y1

x is S3 x is S4 x is S5 x is S6 x is S7 x , i s S8 THEN THEN THEN THEN TKEN THEN y y y y y y is is is is is is Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7

where AV : is the voltage deviation at bus i A.V;.""' is the maximum allowable voltage deviation at bus i : B: is the set of load buses W, weighting factors, which will be set to unity. Table 4 shows the ranking process for IEEE-30 bus system obtained fiom the performance index method. Column 1 shows the contingency number, columns 2 and 3 show sending and receiving end of the line. Columns 5 shows the results for the performance index method in case the exponent index is 2 (2n=2). To show the effect of raising the

The value and the range of each linguistic variable are already given in tables 1 and 2
D. Sougeno inference

exponent index on the ranking process column 4 shows the results for 2n = 22. By comparing both columns, it can be seen that the exponent index has a profound effect in the ranking process. For example contingency number 2 was ranked as 2"dwhen the exponent index was 22, whereas it was ranked in the 5" place when the exponent index was 2. Also contingency number 5 was ranked as 51h when the exponent index was 22, but it was ranked in the 26" place when the exponent index was 2. Column 6 shows the results for the same system by using fuzzy logic controller (Mamdani method). It can be seen from the results obtained that this method can reach good accuracy when compared with the performance index method. This method can capture the most critical cases (from contingency 1 to contingency 24) with very little misranking cases at the end of the list.

35 36 37 38

A006 A006 A006 A004

A008 A007 A009 A012

35 36 37 38

37 36 35 38

30 33 32 37

35 36 3'; 38

This method is much better than the conventional method when the exponent index is 2.0ne should tune the number and the shape of the membership function in order to enhance the results. These problems are under investigation at the present time and will form the content of another paper. Column 7 shows the results in the case of Sougeno method. As can be seen from the table by comparing columns 4 and 7 the results are approximately identical and this method is better than Mamdani method.


This paper presents two methods for voltage ranking. The first one is based on Mamdani method. This method can identify the most critical cases and is better than the conventional method when the exponent index is low (2n=2). This method tries to tune the weighting factors. The second method is based on Sougeno rules, which can approach the same results as the conventional method with high exponent index. Sougeno method gives more flexibility and accurate results than Mamdani method.


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Kwok L Lo received his MSc and PhD from UMIST. He is a Professor at . Strathclyde University. His research interests includes Power systems analysis, planning, operation, monitoring and control including the application of expert systems and artificial neural networks, transmission and distribution management systems and privatization issues. He is a fellow of the IEE and a fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh.
A K. I. Abdelaal was born in Suez, Egypt, on January 9, 1966. He

graduated fiom Cairo University with honor degree in July 1989. He obtained his Msc From Cairo University in speed control of induction motors in 1995. From 1991 to 1997, he worked at the High Institute of Efficient Productivity, Zagazig University, Egypt. Currently he is doing his PhD. His areas of interest are in voltage and reactive power control, optimal power flow, and application of expert systems to power systems