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JSM : Modelling Java in The Future

M I N I S T RY

O F

P U B L I C

W O R K S

D I R E C T O R AT E G E N E R A L O F S PAT I A L P L A N N I N G

WhatistheJavaSpatialModel(JSM)? What is the Java Spatial Model (JSM)?


TheJavaSpatialModelisalandusechangemodel.Itisusedto TheJavaSpatialModelisaland provideinternallyconsistentfutureprojectionsof: id i t ll i t tf t j ti f thespatialdistributionatdesa levelofthepopulationand thespatialdistributionatdesa employment; theurbanareagrowthneededtoaccommodatehuman activities thelandusechangescausedbytheurbanareagrowth theland g y g JSM makes consistent projections of the spatial distribution of p j p the Population and Employment, the Urban Area Growth and the g associated LandUse Changes Land

Whatcanyoudowiththemodel? What can you do with the model?


Consistentprojections(population,landusechanges) Consistentprojections(population,landuse changes) Consistent projections (population land land Communicationandinteractionwithothersectorsandlevels ofgovernment Analysisofimpactsofzoninginspatialplans
i)RTRWIslandProvinceSpecialregionKabupaten/Kota )RTRWIslandProvinceSpecialregionKabupaten/Kota ii)Zoningtoprotectwaterinterests,CentralJava

Supportdesignofspatialpolicies

Drivers Population growth Householdsize reduction Plotsizegrowth Plot size growth

Land use changes

Impacts Increasingdrinking waterdemands

Land use Change: urbanisation

Increasingwasteload emissions Increasedflooding Decreaseinsustainable GWyield

Land use fraction f

Jobincrease Job increase


Economic structurechange

Lossofbiodiversity
time

Reducedfoodsupply

Ecology etc.

Economic growth

Increasedsubsidence

W a t e r

s y s t e m

JSMModelBasic
SpatialPlan Startpopulation, employment,GDP

Drivers: overall population. population Growthetc Tim loop 2010-2050 me

Regional Socioeconomic model

Regionalresults

Startlanduse data

Villageland allocationmodel

Villageresults

Input parameters

Postprocessor impactindicators

Impacts Administrativeregion Administrative region Watersheds Waterdistricts,etc

Modelling Urban Area : Current Trend Scenario


Current Trend
Policies based on historic economic growth; Business as usual; Conservation protection efficiency 60-70%; 5% economic growth

Modelling Paddy Area : Current Trend Scenario


Current Trend
Policies based on historic economic growth; Business as usual; Conservation protection efficiency 60-70%; 5% economic growth

Current Trend : Urban Area in Jabodetabekpunjur

Possible Future Development Trends


Trend
Good Governance

Measures / notes
Improved governance leads to better enforcement of conservation plans and - efficiency of 70-90%. l d ffi i f 70 90% 7% economy growth Implementation of agricultural law 41/2009 on Food security Provides extra protection for irrigated paddy area and other crop areas. % growth 7% economic g Protection according to water zoning principles: standstill of urban

Agriculture

Water Zoning

development in area with slope >18%; 7% economic growth Combination of the good governance, agriculture and water zoning; 7% economic growth

Sustainable Growth

Scenario Result : Urban Area Growth


190% 180%

170%

160%

150%

140%

130%

CurrentTrend GoodGovernance Agriculture WaterZoning SustainableGrowth

120%

110%

100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sustainable Growth Scenario : Urban Area

Sustainable Growth Scenario : Paddy Area

Sustainable Growth Scenario : Urban Area


Jabodetabekpunjur

Conclusion

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