Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

CHANGE IS GONNA COME . . :

THE NEW DEMOGRAPHY, THE NEW REGIONALISM, AND THE FUTURE OF METROPOLITAN AMERICA

Manuel Pastor 12/06/2011

U.S. Decadal Growth Rates for Population by Race/Ethnicity, 1980-2010

1980-1990 1990-2000 96.3% 2000-2010

57.9% 50.3% 42.7% 53.1% 43.0%

16.2% 12.0% 4.2% 3.4%

White

11.0%

1.2%
Black API Latino

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

U.S. Share of Decadal Population Growth by Race/Ethnicity 1980-1990 & 2000-2010

100%
2% 15% 16% 6%

80%

Other API Latino

56%

35%

60%

Black 40%
14%

White

20%

34%

14%

8%

0%
1980-1990 2000-2010

U.S. Change in Youth (<18) Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2010

4,788,632

781,946

875,683

White

Black -248,081

Latino

API

Other

-4,310,525

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

U.S. Changing American Demographics, 1970-2050

100% 1% 4% 11% 80% 2% 7% 12% 1% 3% 9% 12% 12% 12% 12% 60% 12% 12% 12% 40% 83% 80% Latino 3% 4% 13% 3% 5% 16% 3% 6% 4% 7% 4% 7% 5% 8%

20%

23%

27%

Other 31% API

76%

69%

Black 64% 59% 55%

50%

20%

46%

White

0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Note: DatafromtheU.S.CenusBureau.Projectionsfor2020through2050,whichweregeneratedbeforethe2010Census,wereadjustedbasedontheresults2010Census.

LEADING THE NATIONAL TREND

California's Changing Demographics, 1980-2000
100% 5% 19% 80% 8% 60% 7% Latino 7% 40% 67% 57% 20% 47% Black White 26% 32% Other API 9%

11%

0% 1980
Source: California Department of Finance.

1990

2000

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

IMMIGRATION AS A FACTOR

IMMIGRATION AS A (NON-) FACTOR

A Leveling Off: Immigrant Share of Total Population California, Los Angeles, and the U.S.
50%

LosAngeles

Total immigrants in the U.S. (millions)

40%

30%

California

20%

United States

10%

0%

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2009

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

CALIFORNIA DEMOGRAPHIC REALITIES

California: Among the Most Long-Term of Immigrant Populations
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
North Dakota Kentucky Alabama South Carolina Delaware Mississippi Nebraska Indiana North Carolina Tennessee South Dakota Kansas Wyoming Oklahoma Missouri Georgia Iowa Minnesota District of Columbia Louisiana Arkansas Virginia Utah Ohio Wisconsin Maryland Michigan Oregon Colorado Pennsylvania Idaho Massachusetts New Hampshire Washington Connecticut Texas Alaska Arizona Nevada West Virginia New Jersey Florida Maine New Mexico Illinois New York Rhode Island Montana Hawaii California Vermont

% of immigrants who arrived > 10 years ago, 2009

CALIFORNIA DEMOGRAPHIC REALITIES

Percent Immigrant by Share Long-Term
90%

U.S. States, 2009

% of immigrants who arrived >10 years ago

80%

Vermont

Montana

Rhode Island Illinois

Hawaii New York New Jersey Nevada

California

70%

West Virginia

60%

New Mexico Florida New Hampshire Washington Connecticut Arizona Alaska Texas Idaho Massachusetts Pennsylvania Colorado Oregon Michigan Maryland Wisconsin Ohio Utah Virginia Arkansas Louisiana District of Columbia Minnesota Iowa Georgia Missouri Wyoming Oklahoma Kansas South Dakota Tennessee North Carolina IndianaNebraska Mississippi South Carolina Delaware Maine Alabama

50%

Kentucky

40%
North Dakota

30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

% immigrant

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

ONE SIZE DOES NOT FIT ALL: Ancestry & Migration

Ancestry of Long-Term Immigrants (30+ Years)
Los Angeles County, 2007-2009

*Other 17%

Armenian 3% Eastern European 3% Korean 4% Salvadoran 4% Filipino 5% Chinese 5%

Mexican 40%

Western European 9%

Other Latino 10%

*'Other'i ncludesanygroup a ccounting for <2% ofimmigrants *Da ta source:20072009PooledACS, a uthor'spooledsample.

Source: PERE analysis of 2005 and 2006 ACS data

ONE SIZE DOES NOT FIT ALL: Ancestry & Migration

Ancestry of Recent Immigrants (<10 Years)
Los Angeles County, 2007-2009

*Other 16% Other Asian 2% Asian Indian 2% Western European 3% Armenian 4% Korean 5% Salvadoran 6% Other Latino 9% Filipino 8%
*'Other'i ncludesanygroup a ccounting for <2% ofimmigrants *Da ta source:20072009PooledACS, a uthor'spooledsample.

Mexican 32%

Guatemalan 6%

Chinese 7%

Source: PERE Analysis of 2005, 2006, and 2007 ACS data.

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

Percent Latino by State, 2010

Kansas Idaho Washington Oregon Rhode Island Utah Connecticut Illinois New York New Jersey Colorado Florida Nevada Arizona California Texas New Mexico 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 16% 18% 18% 21% 22% 27% 30% 38% 38% 46%

50%

Los Angeles County Share U.S. Latino Population, 1980-2010

15% 14%

12%

9%

1980

1990

2000

2010

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

U.S. Change in Racial Identification of Latinos, 1980-2010

100% 3% 3% 2% 2%

80%

38%

43%

50%

44% API

60%

Black

40% 58% 20%

Other

52%

48%

53%

White

0% 1980 1990 2000 2010

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

Portrait of America: The Changing Suburbs

100%
1% 3% 9% 13% 12% 12% 12% 1% 3% 8% 7% 2% 5% 12% 9% 2% 6%

3% 4%

3% 5% 16%

80%

17%

Other API Latino

10%

60%

40%

76%

69%

Black
64%

81% 72% 65%

White 20%

0%
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 metro suburbs profile 2010 national profile

South Los Angeles with 2000 U.S. Census Tract Boundaries

Total Population: 1990: 802,371 2000: 825,408 2005-09: 858,773 7% increase from 1990 to 2005-09

12

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

South Central Los Angeles High School Demography,Demographics South Central High School 1981-82 School Year
1981-1982 School Year
1% 0% 5% 4% 0% 7% 1% 10% 0% 2% 0% 1% 7% 2%

31% 42%

99% 91%

93%

98% 90% 68% 57% Other Latino African American 91%

Crenshaw

Dorsey

Fremont

Jefferson

Jordan

Locke

Manual Arts

Washington Prep

South Central Los Angeles High School Demography,Demographics South Central High School 2008-09 School Year
2004-2005 School Year
2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

30% 42% 47% 67% 77% 90% 90% 81%

68% 57% Other 31% 22% 9% Crenshaw Dorsey Fremont 9% Jefferson Jordan Locke Manual Arts Washington Prep 18% Latino African American 52%

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

Median Age by Race/Ethnicity U.S., 2010

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

42

35 32 32 27

20

Non-Hispanic White Asian/Pacific Islander

Black

Native American/Alaska Native

Latino

Other or Mixed Race

Age by Race/Ethnicity/Nativity 1980

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Non-Hispanic White 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
<1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90+

Asian, U.S.-born

Other or Mixed Race

Asian, immigrant

Latino, immigrant

Latino, U.S.-born African-American or black

14

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

Age by Race/Ethnicity/Nativity 2005-2009

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
<1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90+
Millenials Generation X Baby Boomers Pre-Boomers

Other or Mixed Race Asian, U.S.-born

Native American/Alaska Native

Asian, immigrant

Latino, immigrant Latino, U.S.-born African-American or black

Non-Hispanic White

Growing Generation Gap in the U.S. 1975-2010

90% 85% Share of Seniors Who Are Non-Hispanic White 80% 75% 75% 70% Share of Youth Who Are Non-Hispanic White 65% 60% 55% 50% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 55% 80% 87%

Source: Policylink/PERE analysis of data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) Current Population Survey (CPS) March Supplement.

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

THE GAP MATTERS

Demographics and State Capital Spending Adjusted for Income
250
Per capita state spending capital outlays adjusted for per capita income (100 = average of U.S. states)

200

150

100

50

0 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

percent age/ethnic difference

THE GAP MATTERS

45%

Income Adjusted Per Pupil Spending on Public Schools & the Generation Gap by State 2007-2008
VT AK NY RI NJ WY HI KY DE WI SC LA NM GA ALMAAR MD ND MS OR MO IA IN KS NE CT VA IL MN SD FL NC DC CA TN WA OK AZ CO ID OH MT MI UT PA

Per Pupil Spending / Per Capita Income

40%

35%

WV

ME

30% NH 25%

TX NV

20%

15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Difference in % non-Hispanic white between the old (>65) and the young (<18)
Source:Policylink/PERE analysisofdatafromtheU.S.CensusBureauandtheIntegratedPublicUse MicrodataSeries(IPUMS)Current PopulationSurvey (CPS)MarchSupplement.

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

THE CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY

THE CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY

Figure31.U.S.ResidentMedianFamilyIncome19472007 (in2007Dollars)
$90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000
Non-Hispanic White

Asian and Pacif ic Islander

$50,000 $40,000
White

Latino

$30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Black

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

PUTTING IT TOGETHER

Unequal Deregulated Disconnected

Have things changed? Is equity key to growth?

USC Program for Environmental & Regional Equity

WHATS THE EVIDENCE?

Utilizing weighted regression approach to 341 metro areas in the U.S. 1990-2000 Per capita income as a function of:
(+)regional education (-) manufacturing concentration (+)central city presence (-) previous income (?) region of U.S. (-) measure of inequity, including ratio of city to suburb poverty, concentration of poverty, income distribution, black-white segregation

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE

Federal Reserve of Cleveland studies almost 120 mid-size regions, looking for factors that predict regional prosperity

Usual suspects: skilled workforce, quality of life, industrial decline

Unusual suspects: income inequality, racial exclusion, concentration of poverty and theyre highly significant

ITS A BROADER STORY

Underinvestment in each other makes us less competitive as a nation

Social tensions over who will gain and who will lose make us less likely to cohere on what we need to do to thrive

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

WHERE TO BEGIN

Metros offer new scale for doing well and doing good, fusing competitiveness and inclusion

Configuration of metropolitan space and opportunity has become center from racial justice to spatial justice

Metros offer new opportunities to bridge difference face-to-face, raceto-race, space-to-space

JUST GROWTH?

With support from the Ford Foundation, did a project combining quantitative and qualitative analysis to uncover when equity and growth come together

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

JUST GROWTH FACTORS

Diversified economy State capital Public sector employment Construction Manufacturing negatively correlated Regional government/governance Jacksonville, Nashville City/County Mergers Kansas City MARC Small portions of poorly educated population Better predictor of just growth than high portions of highly educated population Minority Middle Class

EPISTEMIC COMMUNITIES

Like-minded networks of professionals whose authoritative claim to consensual knowledge provides them with unique source of power in decision-making processes. Processes of interaction (interpretation, knowledge generation, action) often institutionalized when theres a need for repeated interactions over extended periods of time In short: What you know and who you know it with Exemplary diverse examples
Jurisdictional ties Leadership Nashville Jacksonville Community Council Inc.

21

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

Founded in 1975 Multi-faceted community/participatory think-tank

One of the earliest annual indicator projects Volunteer citizen task force, facilitated by staff Broad consultative process Consensus based recommendations for action

Annual studies on particular topics

Broadly shared priorities and sense of common destiny

22

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

LEADING THROUGH THE DIVIDE

So its a challenge for all of us: economic development folks need to rethink the role of equity But equity proponents need to consider economic realities and constraints and propose feasible, growth-enhancing approaches And we need the concrete workforce and community development policies that can make this all real

POLICIES FOR METROPOLITAN EQUITY

Need to promote clusters that have career ladders, integrating this with neighborhood-based delivery systems and learn from the local model of community benefits agreements to include local hiring and other targets in federal spending. A continuing need to reverse the bias toward highway spending to public transit, from infrastructure to operations. Transit-oriented development can offer real possibilities for neighborhood revitalization. Provide real incentives for inclusionary zoning and acknowledge that the recovery of urban areas requires protection against displacement and gentrification.

WORKFORCE STRATEGIES TRANSPORTATION STRATEGIES HOUSING STRATEGIES

23

Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

POLICIES FOR METROPOLITAN EQUITY

Need to consider the financial deserts that result from lack of bank services. Bank On programs help banks see the customer base with new data, help customers see the banks with financial literacy, and create systems of accountability. Need to consider the lack of fresh food as well as environmental disparities in both exposures and opportunities. The Reinvestment Fund, Policy, and Fresh Food Financing Initiative are starts; park and other access is key.

ASSET BUILDING

HEALTHY COMMUNITIES

EDUCATIONAL IMPROVEMENT

The toughest nut to crack and yet absolutely essential to retention of families in cities. There may be many different strategies but mayors cannot stand apart from this and there are significant federal opportunities

LEADING THROUGH THE DIVIDE

Understanding that equity and inclusion are no longer luxuries but imperatives for economic and social sustainability Understanding the need for policy packages, unexpected alliances, and new collaborations Understanding that collaboration and conflict can go together

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Manuel Pastor

12/12/2011

LEADING THROUGH THE DIVIDE

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE . . .

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