On the west coast of Canada off of the Juan de Fuca Fault line, cities such as Vancouver live with

the reality of an impending earthquake as a possibility of something that may occur. In preparation for such a disaster - among others - volunteers assisted by municipal workers and provincial programs prepare and train for such an eventuality of the day when they have to report to their stations to save lives. However, something typically overlooked is the question of how to arrive at their posts, and effects including, but not limited to building density, worst case traffic, and the underlying geology can have on influencing the ideal routes they can take. While GIS cannot solve exactly in what way travel without real time information due to the chaotic nature of disasters, it can be used to predict which routes are more likely to be manageable than others. This poster will show how these three questions can be answered through the use of GIS.

Finding the Way: An Analysis of Route Choices in the Event of a Introduction and Background: Disaster in Vancouver Method Zoning Analysis
Probability of Traffic Buildup
E Broadway

Grandview Highway

Disaster Response Routes

The Province of British Columbia in anticipation of a disaster created a network of pre-identified routes known as the Disaster Response Routes. These roads and highways are engineered to sustain strain from earthquakes, for the purpose of all individuals required. In the event of an emergency, no vehicles are permitted on these roads except for officials and volunteers tasked for disaster relief.

Nanaimo Rd

Ki

While construction codes and materials used in buildings in Vancouver has evolved from brick and rebar to a combination of brick, cements and wood over the years, many buildings in Vancouver, residential and commercial, still risk collapsing in the event of the next earthquake in the region. Debris from buildings caused by either partial or full collapse yields a significant chance of blocking adjacent roads. To predict the relative probability of debris, a list describing each zone was read while looking at building zone information provided by the City of Vancouver. For each zone, a number was assigned between 1 to 8 for the size and function of the properties within the zone where a value of 1 would indicate areas allotted for single family occupancy, an RM-4 would represent a multi-story condominium which would warrant a value of 6. Commercial values followed the same criteria but started at a value of 2 due to the probability of volatiles on site. And while industrial zones started with a value of 2, their actual footprint within their lot is significantly less than the other two types of occupancy.

Legend
Response Rtes Arterial Main Roads Collector Residential PROBABILITY

E King Edward Ave

ng s

wa

Effect of Predicted Building Density on Roads

Boundary Rd
E Broadway

Main St

Knight St

Kings

way
Nanaimo Rd
Ki ng s

Grandview Highway

W 41st Ave E 41st Ave

Joyce St
E King Edward Ave

Moderately High Moderate Low No Data Available

Figure 1: A section of the Geomap Vancouver in the area of interest (Turner, Robert J.W. and Clague, John J. (2008)

Figure 2: Disaster Response Route Road Sign

Kilometers 0 0.5 1 2

Response Rtes Arterial Main Roads Collector

Kings

Boundary Rd

High

Cambie St

Very High

wa

Main St

Legend

Knight St

way

W 41st Ave E 41st Ave

Joyce St

PROBABILITY Very High High

Cambie St

Residential

Moderate Low

Kilometers

Regions with Less Stable Soils

Great N o rthern Way
E Broadway
Grandview Highway

Figure 3: Probability of Traffic buildup

0.5

Figure 4: Effects of predicted building density on roadways provides a limited glance of areas worth avoiding

Method Traffic Analysis

In the event of a disaster such as a large-scale earthquake, roads can be blocked through a series of car accidents which potentially can shut off large sections of road. In the event of roads being cut off, other vehicles will seek alternate routes to their destinations, clogging up nearby roads. To predict the effect of this, the application of a Buffer, a tool available in ArcGIS, creates a polygon around areas of all known traffic counts in the city of Vancouver. Data from these counts is used through an analysis which takes the rate of the mean of the rush hour traffic going in both directions of a single count which represents the largest volume where multiple counts in a single region exist in keeping with worst-case scenarios. A resulting isopleth map then displays overlapping ovals, which can be used to figure out ideal routes.

LANDFILL

PEAT
E King Edward Ave

Nanaimo Rd

PEAT

Ki ng

The information presented by available data is very limited as it does not take into effect more useful factors such as age of construction, estimated volume of the building based on exterior measurements, nor location of individual buildings. While this analysis is not very useful in this location of determining ideal routes, the same analysis taking into effect the above measurements can yield more detailed results which would be of better assistance to individuals planning movement post-disaster.

sw

ay

Legend
Weak Soils Response Rtes
Cambie St

W 41st Ave

Boundary Rd

Main St

Knight St

E 41st Ave

Joyce St

Kingsway

Arterial Collector Residential Parkland

Discussion and Conclusion

Main Roads

PEAT

Road Labels

Kilometers 0 0.5 1 2

Figure 5: Effects of less stable soils in relation to roadways, areas which are more likely to sink due to liquefaction.

Method Soil and Rock Analysis

While in most cities differences in underlying rock and soil would contribute or prevent loss of major routes, Vancouver is a special case where the majority of its underlying land is made of sediments accrued by fluvial processes over a very long time. While there are very small patches of rock, the are of these regions are too small to give significant meaning. In order to interpolate data provided by NRCANs Vancouver Geomap, the map was fit onto the network of streets and coastal boundaries of Vancouver (not pictured). Polygons were fitted over the areas were soil was less stable than the majority and displayed, however the results show that major routes including the Disaster Response Routes were made to just avoid these areas.

These maps show that travel is less likely to be impeded if those with the need to travel used roads up to 200 meters south of E 49th Ave, and just east of Main Street in order to travel to areas of interest. Travelling to the northwest where downtown lies would be strongly discouraged altogether in the initial stages of an earthquake or other major disaster due to the large space of higher density commercial and residential zoning. Also, while there are certain areas which are likely to be worth avoiding due to higher probabilities of liquefaction, more recent data on soil and its predicted reaction to earthquakes is required to conduct a thorough analysis for the purposes of roads to avoid. It is also important to understand in any final GIS product catered to the needs of disaster relief, that while the Disaster Response Route network is engineered to withstand earthquake, it has yet to be tested by the elements and society at large, and alternatives must be presented in any project to ensure delivery of services under the three-day-wait before engineering vehicles can create guaranteed alternatives. The information showed here shows how GIS can be useful in giving the First Responders in the case of catastrophic disasters the means to predict how to travel around the City of Vancouver. And while the specific information on how the likeliness of building rubble impeding roads, traffic, and weaker underlying soils impeding roads would require data with better resolution and clarity in order to be accurate enough to be useful, this information along with an analysis on the make and age of roads can be useful in creating a useful GIS product in the form of a roadmap of roads and their likelihood of being useful in worstcase scenarios through the use of linear analysis, or a set of information for GPS receivers which could enable the use of warnings, or route planning.

By Brian Bancroft SID 5841226 GEG2320, Introduction to Geographic Information Systems

References:
Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure, BC.(2007). Disaster Response Routes Retrieved Sunday March 28, from http://www.th.gov.bc.ca/popular-topics/driver_info/routerinfo/disrouter/diaster_response_routes.htm Turner, Robert J.W and Clague, John J. (2008, Feb 11). Geomap BC Retrieved Sunday March 28th, from Geological Survey of Canada Website: http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/urbgeo/geomapvan/geomap2_e.php City of Vancouver (2010). Vancouvers Open Data Catalog Retrieved Sunday March 28th, from http://data.vancouver.ca/index.htm