Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 569

McKinsey & Company, Inc.

Tom Copeland Tim Koller Jack Murrin

MEASURING & MANAGING THE VALUE OF COMPANIES


Third Edition

JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. New York Chichester Weinheim Brisbane Singapore Toronto

McKinsey & Company, Inc.

2005

336.713.003.12(075) 65.262.17 73
, . . ., ., . : . 3- ., . . / . . .: , 2005. 576 : . ISBN 5-901028-98-8 (.) ? ? , , ? : , . . 10 , , , . . , . : , , , ( , , , . .). , , . ( ) , , . 336.713.003.12(075) 65.262.17 . . 1990,1994, 2000 by McKinsey & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. , John Wiley & Sons, Inc. , . ., , 2005 .

73

ISBN 5-901028-98-8 (.) ISBN 0-471-36190-9 (.)


1. ?
, ,

xiv 1

11
12 13 15 17 19 20 23

2. ,
, EG:

25
27

1: EG EG 29 2: 30 31 EG 35 EG 37 EG 41 44 45 EG 46 3: , 48 49 ....50 51 52 54 55 58

vi

3.

60 61
62 65 67 68

4. ,
- : : : :

69
72 74 78 84 87 88

5.

89
91 92 95 99 103 104

6.
: : : : ,

105
108 109 110 112 113 115

yii 120 121 123 125 128 129

7. ,
ex ante expost 1: 2: 3: 4: , 5:

130
131 132 134 136 137 138 139 141 144 145 147 150

: 8.
166 169 174 176

153
154 156 159

v i i i , , , , 176 177 178 179

9.
(NOPLAT) (ROIC) () ROIC /

180
181 183 187 189 190 192 196 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 207 208 210

HEINEKEN:

212

10.
1:

228
229 231 232 237 238

2: 3: () ? ()

jx

238 239 241 242 243 244 254 256

HEINEKEN:

260

11.
( ) -

264
265 266 267 269 270 271 272 274 275 277 278 279

HEINEKEN:

283

12.
, ,

301
303 306

307 ?... cROIC 309 ? 310

, 312 314 316 319 320

HEINEKEN:

323

13.

325
328 329

HEINEKEN:

331

14.
- - -

337
338 339 341 344 345 350 351 352

15.0
, , ,

354
355 357 359 361 364 365

xi

16.
?

366
367 369 370 372 375

17.
1: 2: 3: 4:

376
378 380 382 384 387 388 389 394

18.0

395
396 397 398 402 404 406 407 411 416

19.
,

417
419 422 424

xii

, : 425 427 430 432 434 438 440 441

20.
( ) ( ) ( )

442
444 448 451 455 456 458 460 464 466 467 469 473 475

21.

476
477 478 479 480 482 485 486

, , 2 2 . : TransAmerica .

490 491 496 498 500 501 508 512 516 522 523 524 525 527

528 529 531 534


McKinsey & Com pany, McKinsey . , , - . McKinsey & Co., Inc. ; 1926 . McKinsey , , , , , , , , , , . McKinsey . McKinsey -. - - , . . : Financial Theory and Corporate Policy ( ) Managerial Finance ( ). ( ) . McKinsey, . McKinsey - Stern Stewart & Co., . - . McKinsey & Company, . , Bankers Trust Corp. , .
McKinsey & Company. XIV

1990 ., . , , . , , , . : , , , , . , , . , -. . , , , 1980- ; 1990-; 1998 . - ; , , . , . ( ), , . , . , , . , . , , . 1

, . . . , , . /, , , . . . . . , . : , , , , . , . , . , , , . McKinsey. . , , . , , . , . ,

3 , . , , . , , . , , . , , , , . , , , . . . . , -, , . , . , . . , /, , , , . , - , , , - . ; ; . . , , . , . . , .

, , , . . , , , , , . . , . , . , , . , . , , , , . , .

- Le Figaro : , , ?. , : !. , , , (Merton Miller) (Franco Modigliani) Dividend Policy, Growth and Valuation of Shares ( , ), 1961 . Journal of Business. , . , (Alfred Rappaport) - ( ALCAR) (Joel Stern) Stern, Stewart & . , , .

. . , , . . (. 17) . 1 , . 2 , , , . 3 , , . 4 ( ), , . 5 . 6 , . , 7 , (). (. 813) . , . , , , . (Heineken), , . (. 1422) . -, , , , . : , ,

. , , . 10 , , . , , . . -, . . , : , ; , . Excel. , . : /, , . . (, , , .) , 1-800-225-5945
www.WileyValuation.com.

, ,

, . , , , - , McKinsey, . . McKinsey 1980- , . ( McKinsey) . , . . 1 ?. . McKinsey . , . McKinsey . , . Heineken, . 6 , , . 19. , 15. 16. 20. 22, . Excel, . , , , , , . , ', , , , , , .

, . 10 . , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . , , . , . , , , , . , . . McKinsey , . . Wiley, , Publications Development Company . , , , . , . .., .., . .

1 ? 77 2 , 25 3 60 4 , 69 5 89 6 705 7 , 730

, . , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , . . , , , , .

11

12

, , . . . , , , , , . . , , , , , , , , . , . -, . -, , , , , , . 2000 . Vodafone AirTouch Mannesmann, 1. , . , . . 1. 1980- . 2. , .


1

Mannesmann , , Vodafone AirTouch.

1. ?

13

3. , , 1982 . 4. , , , . 1982 . . . , , . , , . , , , Kohlberg, Kravis, and Roberts (KKR) Clayton, Dubilier, and Rice. 1981 . 2328 / 99 2. 1988 . 381 / 4049. . , . ; - RJR Nabisco 31,4 . , 1 ., 1984 . KKR Wometco. , . 1980- , RJR Nabisco. , , . , 2

G. Baker and G. Smith. The New Financial Capitalists: Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and the Creation of Corporate Value. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1998.

14

, . , BF Goodrich UniRoyal , Goodyear GenCorp ( General Tire) . . 1984 . , , , , . , , , , . 1990- , . , , . . , , , . ? . , , . , , , , . , . , . : , , , . . , -

1. ?

15

( ). , , , , , . , : , . , , , - (, ). , , 1980- , . . , , , , , . , .

1970- . . , , , , . , ; . 1976 . 3,
3 M.Jensen and W. Meckling. Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs, and Ownership Structure //Journal of Financial Economics. 1976. October. P. 305360.

16

, , ( ), , . , - , , - . 1980- . , , , , , , . , 1982 ., , , , , . . 1.1, 1998 . 45% () .

1. .?

17

(, , ). , , . 1990- 48% ( , 1983 . , , ). , . . , . , . 1980- , . , , . , () . , California Public Employees Retire ment System ( ; ), 130 ., . 1.1, , 1996 . 58 76% . , (8%) (3%), : .

18

. 1.1.

. %

, 1996 .

. % . %

. %

. % .

% : . %

225 1130 2618 546 5 25 58 12 8 36 16 7 12 54 24 10 9 61 10 49 7 47 8 38 12 21 2 38 17 29 3 52 8 105 107 130 2 30 31 37 43 142 784 61 4 14 76 6 112 538 360 155 10 46 31 13

: Investment Company Institute.

, . , , , , . Deutsche Telekom, Deutschland Aktienland ( ). , , . 1.2 ( , , ). 1975 . 25 , 12% , 1995 . 69 , 26% . . - , , . , , , . , .

1.2.
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 ( ) 25,3 30,2 47,0 51,4 69,3 ( %) 11,9 13,5 20,1 21,1 26,3

: New York Stock Exchange Share ownership ( ).

1. ?

19

, , , . ( , 95 91% ). , , . , , . . 1990 ., , . 2035 . . , , 2035 . 34,1% 19,7% 1996 . ! , . , , () , , , . , . , : , . , , ; . , . , 4%, 3103 , ( ) 13%. , 1974 1993 . 7,4%, 2068 . , , -

2 - 1719

20

9,1%, 1706 , 7%. , , , , , , , . , , . , , . , , , . , , , , 1980- , . , . . , ( , ), , , -, . , , ?... . . , -

1.2.

() . 1.2, 20%. 1975 . , , . , . 1994 1997 . McKinsey (McKinsey Global Institute) : . , , , , (. . 1.3). , , ? , . (. . , , ) , . 1.4, 1974 1993 . , . , . . , . .

22

. 1.3.

21 31

" . . ( ).

: McKinsey Global Institute.

1.4. , 19741993 .1 >


9,1%

" ( ) , . : McKinsey Global Institute.

1. ?

23

, , , , . , , , . , , , , . ? , . . , , , , . , , . - , . , . , , . 1.5 1.6. , , , , , , . , , .

, . ? , (, ), .

24

. 1.5.

1.6.

1 , . , , ; , , . ,

, , , . , , . , . , , , , , , 25

26

. , , . , , . , . . , . , , . : , , . . . , , . ; , ; . , , . , , , . , , , . , , , . . , .

2. ,

27

EG:
1: 1999 . EG . 10 Consumerco, EG, , , , , . , EG .

EG 1998 . EG 3,5 . , : Consumerco, Foodco Woodco. Consumerco . ( 40%) , () . Woodco . , . - () . Woodco . 1999 . , EG , , . , Woodco . Woodco . . ,

28

. , , . Woodco , . , . , . Woodco , , , . Foodco, EG, . , . Foodco , . EG, Foodco , . 1999 . Foodco , . 2.1. EG: , 1998 . ( .)

2. ,

29

. , , Consumerco EG, Foodco, . Consumerco, Foodco Woodco EG : (), (Finco) (Newsco). EG , . - 1970- . , EG (. . 2.1).

EG EG . , 10%. , EG , . . , . , Consumerco. . , EG , , (.. ). , EG .

, . , EG . EG , Consumerco.

30

, . EG . , , , EG .

2: EG. , , EG . , , EG . , , - . , , , , . , . , , , . . -, , , . -, , . , , , . EG , (. . 2.2). EG. EG (. . ), ; , . EG ,

2. ,

31

2.2.

EG. EG . , , .

, , EG . , EG , . , EG , , , .

32

2.3.

EG:

, , . , EG , , (. . 2.3). EG , : (. . 2.4). , EG. 1992 1997 . EG

2.4. EG: (/ ), 1998 .

2. ,

33

Woodco. , EG , . , EG, , , EG . , , EG . , EG , . , . EG , , , . , , , EG . . EG, , Consumerco , (35% ). . Woodco . Y Foodco, , , - . , , EG . : EG, (. . 2.5). , EG Consumerco, Woodco Foodco Consumerco. , EG. EG , . , , , , , EG Consumerco , . , , EG , , . , EG, . , . , . ,

34

. , , . 3) . 4 * ROIC .
21

"

2.5. EG: 31 1998 . ( , ROIC, .)

. - , , , , , , , 2.6. , EG . , , , . , EG , . , , EG , . . , EG , , , ,

2. ,

35

1994 . ] I 1 I 1989 1990 1991 I I I I I I I I 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

V_ ) 2.6. EG: EG , . EG - EG . , . , , , . . - . . , . ; . EG, a , , , . 2.1. , EG .

36

. 2.1. EG: ( , , .)

. -, , , -, Foodco ( ) , EG . -, EG , Consumerco. , , , EG 25%. , , EG , , -, . , 2.2. EG , 10%. , , , , EG. , , , . , , EG , , , . : , EG , , .

2. , 2.2. EG: - ( , , .)

, , . , Consumerco, 20%, EG, - Consumerco. , Foodco , , . : . Foodco , . Woodco, , . EG (, ) - . . Consumerco , . Foodco , . Woodco EG, , . , , , .

EG EG ( ), , . . ,

38

2.7.

EG: ( %)

1 % , 1 . , 2.7, , . Foodco . Foodco , . , . Woodco , , , . Consumerco : Consumerco . . , , EG . , EG -, , EG , . , EG . Consumerco, , . , Consumerco ,

2. ,

39

EG . , , . Consumerco , . , . , , , . Consumerco , , . , , , , . , , - . , 1 .

, , Consumerco , , 25%, 2.8. Wooclco, EG, , . Woodco ,

2.8.

EG: Consumerco ( .)

40

. , , , . , Woodco , , , . , ; , , Woodco . , , . . , , , , . , , . Foodco , , , . . , . , , Foodco , . Consumerco, Foodco, . Foodco . , Foodco , , , . , Foodco , . , Foodco, / , , Foodco EG . . EG . , . , 50%. , EG 3,6 .,

2. , 2.3. EG: ( , , .)
Consumerco Foodco Woodco Newsco Propco Finco ( %) 1750 300 200 175 125 25 -425 2150 -300 1850 2400 -550 -23 2115 275 600 200 150 35 -425 2950 -300 2650 2400 +250 +10 2640 300 800 215 160 35 -225 3925 -300 3625 2400 +1225 +51

41

( %) +25 +9 +33 +8 +7 0 +33

+37

50% (. . 2.3). , EG , ( , , Foodco). , EG . EG . , , . EG EG : (1) ( , ); (2) , ; (3) ;(4) . : EG , . , EG. EG , (, , /, / , ). ,

42

- , , , EG. , , , , ( , EG ). Consumerco . , , , , . EG, , Fooclco, . , , , Foodco. , , . Foodco : , . , Foodco, , , . EG, , . , , , . , , . , , , . , . EG , - . , , . , EG , , . EG .

2. ,

43

, , EG , . , Consumerco, EG, , . Consumerco. , . , , Consumerco , . Consumerco , . , Consumerco. Consumerco . Consumerco . , , , Consumerco, . , . , , , Consumerco 3,2 . , EG ( 2 .). Consumerco, , , EG 2,6 . Consumerco EG, , Consumerco. EG, . , Foodco , , , . , Foodco, Foodco. Foodco . Foodco

44

. 2.4. EG: ( .)

. , , EG Foodco, EG , . Woodco , . Woodco, . , . Woodco 1218 , . 18 EG . , Woodco . Woodco , EG , . Woodco , , . 2.4 , , EG . , , Woodco, EG , .

, , . , . Consumerco , , , .

2. ,

45

, . , Consumerco , . , , : , Consumerco. . , . : 500 1 ., Consumerco 800 ., . , , . , . , , , EG, . , . , , .

EG , . EG Standard & Poor (S&P); . , . , , , . EG , . Consumerco, , . , , EG . ,

46

EG , , . . EG, , . EG . , EG 500 . . EG , 200 . ( , 40%).

EG EG , . 2.5, , . , EG . 2.6 2.9 EG . , .

2.5. EG:
Consumerco Foodco Woodco Finco Newsco ; , 50%; , ,

2. ,

47

2.6. EG: ( , , .)
Consumerco Foodco Woodco Newsco Propco Finco 1750 300 200 175 125 25 -425 2150 -300 1850 0 1850 2900 350 800 190 160 45 -225 200 4420 -300 4120 800 4920 +123 ( %) +66 +17 +300 / +9 +28 +80 +47

^=
+106

+166

Consumerco, : , , , , . Woodco, , . Fooclco . . , , EG , , . EG, 500 . .

48

2.9. EG: ( .)

EG , , , . EG.

. , .

3: , EG . , EG . , EG , . 1999 . EG 40 . , EG, . , . , EG, , , , , . , , , . , , , , EG,

2. ,

49

. , . , EG . 1. . 2. . 3. EG , . 4. . 5. EG. 6. EG. ( . 6 ).

, EG, , -, . , . , . , EG . EG . , EG . EG . , . , , , , . . , , EG

50

, , EG . , , EG , , EG . -. . , - , , , , . , : . , . , , . , , . , . , . ( ), - , , . , , , . , , (ROIC)*,
* - , : ROIC return on invested capital ( ), economic profit ( ), PV present value ( ), MVA market value added ( ), WACC weighted average cost of capital ( ) . . , ( ) . . .

2. ,

51

, . , , , {). , :

, , ( ) ( ) ( . . 3 4). , EG , . , . , , , , . , , . , , . , . , . , , EG . . - , - . , ,
3-1719

52 .
. , . , , . , - EG , . , . , , , .

EG. , . EG, , . , . -, , . -, EG () . , , , EG , . , . . , , , , , EG. , , . , . .

2. ,

53

, EG . , 1980- , Woodco, . , . , , , . , , , . , , , . : , EG, , EG , . , , , , . EG - , . , . - , . EG EG . . , EG , . , . , EG ; , . , , EG . , EG . , , . , , , - ; , . , . , EG , ?

54 . . EG , . , , . , ; - , , .

, -. . V . -, , . -, , . EG . , EG, . , , . EG, , , . , EG , . - , EG . , , . , EG , . : , , , EG . , , , , , . , .

2. ,

55

EG , . , ; , , , , , . , , EG. , . , EG , , , . . , , . , , . , , . , EG - () (. . 2.7). , - , . . ( ) EG . , EG , , . EG . , , , , , . , ,

56

. 2.7. EG: -

, . : ; ; ; . . . : , , , : (1) ; (2) (, ), , ; , , , , , EG , , ; , EG. . EG, . : , , ; EG; , , .

, . , . , , ,

2. , . 2.7 ()

57

. , , , . : ; -; , - ; -. . . : ; EG; , ; ; EG; ; EG; EG. . : ; ; ; ; EG , . : EG ; EG , ( ); EG . , , . , -. .


. . 58

EG . , EG , : .

58

. 2.7 ()
. . . . . , -. , . , : , , ; ( ); ; . / : , ; , ; ; ( ) ; . , : ; ; , ; .

, . EG, - . , . , . EG, : -,

2. ,

59

; -, , , , , - ; -, . . , . . , . , EG, . . , , , , , . 1, - . , , . . , , , .

, . , 4, , . , . . , . - . , . , , . , . 60

3.

61

. , , , . ( , , , , ), , , - (, ). , 18%. , , , 10%. , , - . , . 14% , , . , , ( ), . . (. . 3.1). , . 800 . . , , .

3.1. :

11 2)

) ROIC . WACC .

62 .

3.1. :

, . , . , . . , , . 3.1 . , . , . , . ? ? , , , , 3.2. , , . - , , . , , . - , . , , - . , , ( " ),

3.

63

3.2. :

: , , , (. . 3.3). , , . , , , . . . , . , . , . .
3.3.

64 .

3.4. ( . .)

( ), . . 10%. 58 . 62 . , , . , , , ? ? , . . . , , , ( , , ). 3.41.
1

. 8.

3.

65

, , , . . , , . . , . ? , , , . , . : . ? : , . ( ), , , , . ( , ), ( ) . , . , , , . , , . , , , , , , , , . ? . , , , . , . , 20 . .

66 .

, , 7 . . , , 13 . , . , , - ? , . , , . . , , , 32 . . , . , , 20 ., 32 . 10% , . , , . , , 10%. , , 10%. . , , , . , , , , . , , , . , , , , , ? , . , , ? . ( , , ), , . , , . . , . , ,

3.

67

, . , . , , , , , . , , . . , . , -, : . , . . , , . , , . , , . , , . , , , . -, , - . , , : , . , ( ), . , ,

68 . , , , , . , . , , , . , , , . . 1. , . 2. , (. . , ). 3. , ( ). 4. , , ( ) . 5. , .

3 , . , : TRS ( ), DCF ( ), ( )1, EVA ( ), CFROI (, , , ), ROIC ( ), EPS ( ), , . , , , , : . , , . , .


1

, (EVA), Stern Stewart.

69

70 .

. . , . ( ) ( ). -, , , . -, . , . . , , (. . 4.1). , . 4.1 : . , , . - .

4.1.

4. ,

71

. , . , , . , , . , . . , , ( ) ( ). , , (, , ). , . , , . , 4.1, . , . , - ( ). - , . , ( , ). ( ) .

72 . - . . 1. ? 2. ( )? 3. , ? 4. ?

: 2 (TRS) . , , . .

, . , , , . . , . (
2

:]?. DobbsandT. Roller. The Expectations Treadmill // McKinsey Quarterly. 1998. 3. P. 32-43.

4. ,

73

TRS ) , . 400 , 40% . , ( , TRS , ). , 1990- , , . , . - , , . , , . , , , TRS . , , , . , , , . . , , . , . . , ; , . , - . , . . , .

74 .

, . ( ), , , . : , . , , , . , , . , , . , , . , . , 50%. , 10%, - . 1996 ., Credit Suisse , 20%, 3 . : (MVA) , Stern Stewart Fortune MVA. ( ) . / , (),

4. ,

75

( ) . / , , . , , : . , . . . , , ; , . /, . , . , . TRS MVA, Sears Wal-Mart. 31 1997 . Sears TRS 22% , Wal-Mart 5% . , Sears ? ? / Sears Wal-Mart 4.2. 31 1997 . Wal-Mart ( ) 101,3 ., 32,1 . MVA 69,2 . . Sears, 42,5 . 30,7 ., MVA 11,8 . /: Wal-Mart 3,2, Sears 1,4. , , Wal-Mart, 3,20 ., , Sears, 1,4 . Wal-Mart , / . , . Sears , /. , , .

76 .

4.2. : Sears Wal-Mart, 31 1997 . ( , , .)

, . , , . TRS / , 10 . 4.3 . .
4.3. :

4. ,

77

1 . , , The Gap ( ), Kroger Carrefour. 1997 . . 3, . Great Atlantic and Pacific, Kmart, Karstadt. , , , / , . ( 1) , ( ) . 2 4 . 2 , . , , Sears, Rite Aid, , Whitbread. , / . , , / . , , , / . 4, , . Wal-Mart Nordstrom. /, . . , , . , . : , . /, , . 4.4 , , (. . ). The Gap, Wal-Mart. The Gap

78

4.4. , 31 1997 .

, Wal-Mart , , . ? , . . , , , . : . , . , . .

1. , . .

4. , 4.1. ( .)

79

, , , 3. 2. , , , . , , , , . . , . 4.1 . , : ? ,
,
, . , , , . 1999 . Allianz 70% PIMCO Advisors, , 3,3 . , , Allianz , 1,8% , PIMCO, Merrill Lynch 1997 . Mercury Asset Management 3% . , ? ? , , PIMCO Mercury . PIMCO , , , Mercury. . , , , .

80 .

, , / (, 10) , , . , , , , , . 4.2 ( , ). , , , , V3 . , . , ? , , , , . , , . , 10%, , (323 .) 50% , (212 .).


4.2. ( .)

4. ,

81

: , , , , , . , , . , ( , ), . , , . . , , , . : , () . , , , , . ? , , . (, , ), . , . , , 10% . , , 10%, , 10%. , . , 10%, , ( ). , .

82 .

10%. . , , , . , , , . / (/) , , . , 4.3. - , . . , , , 10%. , . , , 1500 ., 1000 . , / 15, 10. , . , 25 . , 5 . , 50 . 20%, 10%.
4.3. ( .)

4. , 83

, / 4:

g ; r () ; k .

/ . :

, . . , , 5 8%, 20 10%? , . , / 10, 1000 ., . , , , , . , , . - , . . , - /, .


4

. 12.

4-1719

84 .

, , , . , . , , , , . : , . , . ( ) . , , . , . , , . , . , : ( ) . , . , . 4.4 . , . ( , 10%.) , , , , . , , , . ROIC .

4. , 85 4.4.

: = 100; = 10%; 25 ROIC = .

Heineken, ( ):

. Heineken ( %):

, , Heineken. . , . : , . . Sears Wal-Mart, 4.5, ROIC

86 .

4.5. : Sears Wal-Mart

1995 1997 . ( 1995 . Sears Dean Witter Discover Allstate Insurance.) Wal-Mart 12,7% , 13,1% , , 7,8 8,2% Sears. ( 9%.) , Wal-Mart . , Sears Wal-Mart , ? . Sears , . Wal-Mart, , . , , . . , , . 4.6 Sears Wal-Mart, , . , , . , ( , ). , . , Wal-Mart , Sears, , . Sears, . , , .

4. ,

87

4.6.

: Sears Wal-Mart

, , ; . , , Heineken: ROIC , , - . . : , , , , , , . . - , , . , . . , , . , .

88 .

. . . . : , , , . , , , . , . (ROIC ) , , ( , ). , , , . . . , . - . , , - . , , . , . , . , , , , . , , .

1974 . The Wall Street Journal , , :


, -, , - , , . , , , ... - , , , .

1990 ., , , , , . . , , , .
.

89

90

-. , CS First Boston, , , :

1994 , CS First Boston... , . , , , , , , . , - -. , , , 1.

, , . , . . 1. ( ) , , . 2. ( ) . 3. , . 4. , . , . : , , , , .

A.Jackson. The How and Why of EVA at CS First Boston //Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Spring 1996. Vol. 9. 1. P. 98-103.

5.

91

4 , , , . : 15 1997 . Intel 19% . Intel 6,3% , 23%. ( 15 ) , . , , , . , (TRS) : ( ), , ( ) . , Zacks Research System, , . , , . 5.1 . R2 [ . , ] TRS. , R2 40%.
5.1. TRS , 19921998 .

92 .

, , ( ) , . , (. . ). , . 340 , , (. . ) . , . (, 9 13% 2 6%). . 5.2. ,

5.2.

5.

93

( ). , / , , . , . , , / , . 5.3 , . / R2 46%. , . 5.3 , , , , . , . ( . 5.2.) 340 / . 5.1, . ( ), , .

5.3.

94 . 5.1. /

: ( R2) . . .

, 31 . , Value Line Investment Survey, (WACC). 5.4, . , , , , . , , (


5.4. : 31 , 1999 .

5.

95

), . , , - ? , , . : . , , . , , Hoechst, , 1997 . 50 . 1996 . Hoechst - , . . , :


( ) 1709 -57 2114 1324 1343 377 ( %) -37 -72

1995 1996 1997

, ? - , . . , , . , , , . * ( , ) * ( , ), .
* : - LIFO (last in, first out), - FIFO (first in, first out). , .

96 .

5.5.

. , , , . , . , . ( ) , , . , , , , , , , ,

5.

97

(. . 5.5). , (1982 .), , 2. , , . , , , ( ) , , 40 . , () , , . , , , - . , 3. , . , , . , 4. 1400 , , , , , , , , . 5.6. , : , , ; , -, ,


2

G. Biddle andF. Lindahl. Stock Price Reactions to LIFO Adoptions: The Association Between Excess Returns and LIFO Tax Savings // Journal of Accounting Research. 1982. Vol. 53. P. 548-551. /, 31 2000 . [, 2001 . , / . , .] . Lindenberg and M. Ross. To Purchase or to Pool: Does It Matter?// Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Summer 1999. Vol. 12. 2. P. 32-47.

98 .

5.6.

, , 5; , , , , . : , - , , . , /. , , , . , , , , , EBITDA ( , , ), , . 3633 , , , , , , /, EBITDA.


5

, .

5.

99

Wells Fargo First Interstate Bank 1995 .6 , , Wells , , First Bank System , . Wells Fargo, 400 . . Wells Fargo 3% , , , 20% 10 . AT&T NCR 1991 . , AT&T 500 . , NCR ( NCR ). , , , AT&T 4 . 6 .7 , AT&T . , , . , . , . , - , , , , . , , 1999 . Amazon.com 23 ., . ( . . 15.) , , . ,
6

. Davis. The Purchase vs. Pooling Controversy: How the Stock Market Responds to Goodwill //Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Spring 1996. Vol. 9. 1. P. 50-59. T. Lys and L. Vincent. An Analysis of Value Destruction in AT&T's Acquisition of NCR // Journal of Financial Economics. 1995. Vol. 39. P. 353-378.

100

. : - , , . , . 20 Fortune 500, 5.2, 9,2% , . BankBoston 20,4%. , . , . , . . , . ( ), .


5.2. : 20 Fortune 500, 1997 .
, 5 ( .) 5,78 9,60 5,70 5,51 5,36 6,30 9,08 2,35 1,73 3,03 3,67 7,18 5,92 2,46 5,51 4,31 5,50 5,36 7,67 5,11 ( ( .) 54,06 46,97 45,50 60,17 60,06 61,19 48,56 50,22 31,50 62,38 49,63 98,50 74,00 30,19 57,13 79,81 60,00 72,81 81,13 73,88 ( %) 10,7 20,4 12,5 9,2 8,9 10,3 18,7 4,7 5,5 4,9 7,4 7,3 8,0 8,2 9,6 5,4 9,2 7,4 9,5 6,9 9,2

American General BankBoston BellAtlantic Comerica DuPont Exxon Ford Gillette Hasbro Hewlett-Packard Kellogg Lockheed Martin McGraw-Hill Nordstrom PPG Industries Procter & Gamble Reynolds Metals United Technologies Wachovia Corporation Xerox

: 12%. : Compustat.

5.

J01

5.7. ( 62 )

, . , 62 8. 5.7, . , , . 9 . 349 ( ) 19751981 . , :



8

( %) +1,3 -1,8 +0,4 -0,8

273 76 39 17

Office of the Chief Economist. Institutional Owners, Tender Offers, and Long-Term Invest ment. Washington, DC: Securities and Exchange Commission, 1985. J. McConnell and MuscareUa. Corporate Capital Expenditure Decisions and the Market Value of the Firm //Journal of Financial Economics. 1985. March. P. 399422.

1 0 2 .

, , - . , , . ( ), , , , . , . , 10. 634 , :
260 168 45 161 634 ( %) +0,35 +0,84 +1,20 +0,78 +0,71

, ( ) , . , , 40 1984 1986 ., , 60% 11 . , 75% , . , , , , . 161 , , 19621984 .12 , . , , .


10

11 12

J. R. Woolridge. Competitive Decline and Corporate Restructuring: Is a Myopic Stock Market to Blame? //Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Spring 1988. Vol. 1. 1. P. 26-36. G. Mercer. A Review of Major Corporate Writeoffs, 1984-86. McKinsey & Co., 1987. T. Copeland and W. H. Lee. Exchange Offers and Stock Swaps - New Evidence // Financial Management. Autumn 1991. Vol. 20. 3. P. 34-48.

5.

( %):
, , , 3,77 -1,18 , 8,41 -0,41

, , , . , , , , , . , , , , . , . , , . , , , . , 30 . , 13. . , , . . , , . , ,
13

.: R. Ball. The Theory of Stock Market Efficiency: Accomplishments and Limitations // D. Chew, Jr. (ed.). The New Corporate Finance. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1999. P. 35-48.

1 0 4 .

, . , -, . , , , . , , . . ? : . , , . . , , , , . ? , . , , , , , , 5%. , , , , , ( ), . , , , . , , , , . , , . , .

. ?, ?. -, : , ? ? ?

. Making Value Happen, McKinsey, , , -, , , , , , , , . Performance Ethics, , . 105

106 . ? , , , . , , . , . - , 1960- ; . . , . 5%, , 10 . , , , , , . , , . : , ; , , , . , , , , . , , , , ( ) . , , , , . ? ? -

6.
0

- ? ( 3 4 .) . . : , , . : , , . , , Lloyds TSB Group, 1980- , 1998 . : , 1. , , . , 1980- Pfizer . 1990- , Pfizer . , , , . 6.1, , , , . : 1) ; 2) -, ( ); 3) , ; 4) , ; 5) , ;
1

A. Morgan and P. Bose. Banking on Shareholder Value: An Interview with Sir Brian Pitman, Chairman of Lloyds TSB // McKinsey Quarterly. 1998. Vol. 2. P. 96-105.

108

6.1. ,

6) . . , , . . , , , . , , , , . , , , ( ), , . , , .

6.

: , , . . Disney, : , , , . , . , , . , , . , : ; ; ; ; . : ?. , , . , , . , , , , . , ( ) ( ). ? , , . , . 1. . ,

1 1 0 .

, 2; . 2. , , , -, , -, , . 3. , , , . , . , , . , , . , , . , - . , , . , , , , . . : , , 2

.: . Roller and R. Dobbs. The Expectations Treadmill // McKinsey Quarterly. 1998. Vol. 3. P. 32-43.

6. 6.1.
, , . , , - -. , , , - , , -

, . , . , . , , (. . 6.1). , , , . , , , , .

12 .

: 2 , EG Corporation . : ; ; ( ); ( , /); . , . : , , , - 3 . , , 6.2. 1. 1 -, , , . 2. 2 , -, , . 3. 3 , , , . , , , . , , . -


3

. Baghai, S. , and D. White. The Alchemy of Growth: Kickstarting and Sustaining Growth in Your Company. London: Orion Business, 1999.

6.

6.2.

, - . , , . , , . - , , , , . , , , , . ( ), ( ), ( ) ( ). ( , , ), ( ), .

14 .

: ?. , , , . ( ), ( /) ( , ). . , , , . , , , , . , , . , , , (, , , , ). . , , , , , . . , , , , , . , , . , . .

6.

115

. ( ), ( , ), (, ), ( , , ), . , . , . , , , , , , . , , , , . . -, - , . -, , ( ) . -, - . , , , (, ). (). , , . , . . 1. .
5-1719

116 . . -, , . - , , , , . -, , . , , . , , . , . , , , . 2. , . , ( . 9). , . , ; , . , . , , (EBIT), , , , , . , : , , . . . . , , .

6.

2.7

, - , / , , . 3. , . , , , , , . , , , . , , , . , , . . , , . . , : , , , . , (, -) . , , , , , , . - , , . , , , , . , - . , , . , , 20 . -

118

6.3.

6.

119

6.4.

20 , , , , . ( , ): , (. . 6.3). 1. . , () . , . (. . 6.4): . , . , . 2. . , , . , , - ;

120 . , , . , , . . . ( ), . , , .

, , , , , , . , , , . ; , , , . , . . , , . , , . . -, - . -, . -, - .

6. 1 2 1 - - , . , , - , . . , , . , . 100 ., , , . , . , , 124% , . , , . , . , , . , .

122

-, , . . , ( 3% , ) ( 15%). . , , (, , ), - . , . , , . , (, ) , . . , , . - , . , , -, . , , - . . , , , . : , - . -, .

6.

123

, - . , , - . , , . . - , , , . , , , . , , . - , . . , . , . , , . . . , , , . , , .

124

. 6.2. -

' ROIC .

, , . , , , ? , . , , 6.2. , . - -. , , , . , , , , . .

6.

125

, . , . , , : , . , , . , , , . , , . . , , , , . , , . , . . - , , , , . . , , , , . , . , , , , . , . ;

126

, . , . , , . , , ( ) . , ( ). , ; , , , . 6.5 , , , ( ) ( ). , , . ( ) , . , , , : , , .
6.5.

6. 1 2 7 , . , . , . , , , - . 1. : , , . 2. : , , . 3. : , . , , . . . , , , , ( ). . , , , . , , , . , (, ) . , , ( ).

1 2 8 .

. , . , , : , . , , , . , , . 1. , , , -. . , . 2. , -, . , , . , . . , -, , , . , , , . , . , . , , , , . ( , , , , -

6.

129

.) , . , , . , - , , ; , , . , , , , , , . , , , ? . , , . -, , , ( ). , , , , . . , , , . , , . , , . , .

( , ) . , , , (. . ), , , . , , , . -, 1800- , . . , 1900-. : 1960- , 1980- , , , 1990- . 130

7. , 1 3 1

, , , (, ) . . , . . , , , (, Starwood), . , ; , , , , , , . , 1970- , . , . , .

, , , . , , . , , , , . , , , , ( ). , .

132

, , , . : . , , : . : , . , , , . . ex ante, , , (). , : , , , , . ex post, , , . ex ante 7.1 . : 20% 35% . , . , , . , . , , . , , , . , , , ,

7. , 1 3 3 7.1.

, , . : . , ex ante 500 ., 1996 1998 . : - , 90% . , , . , , , . -, ( ), 42% , 58% . ? , ( ). . - , .

1 3 4 . , 98% . , , , , -, . . , - ( 10%), . , , , , , . : , , , ; , ; . . , , /, . , - , , , .

expost . ? 1980- McKinsey 116 19721983 . Fortune 200 Financial Times 150. , . . , General Mills 47 , . , 61% 23% . 97 , , (45%)

7. ,

135

, 1 . - , 14%. ex ante , / . 23 92%. 13 , , 8 , 2 . . 829 , (80%), , . 10 18% , S&P 500. , , 35%. , , . ? . , . , , , , , . , , . , , . , , / , . ,


1

, 10% -. , - - . P. Anslinger and T. Copeland. Growth through Acquisitions: A Fresh Look // Harvard Business Review. 1996. January/February.

136

( ), . ? , , , , . . ? : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) . , . , . , , , . , , . , . , , , , . , , , , , . , - . , , . , . ,

7. ,

137

-. ; , . *. . . - 500 ., - . - 225 . , 275 . . ( .) - . , - . , - . , , . , , . , , . ,


* . ( . ouvepyia : , , ) , , ( ) , , . () . . .

138

, , . , , , . , . , . . , , - . ! , ( , , , , )? , , : . ,

7.1. /

7. , 1 3 9

. - . , , , , . , , , -, , . , . , . 7.1 . , , .

. , , , . , , , . 1: , , , . : 1) /; 2) ( ), /; 3) . - , , . , . , -

140

. , , . -. -, , . -, , , . . , , . , , , , . . , . , . , , - , , , . , . . , , . , . . : , , , , . , . - , . , ( ) . , . ?

7. ,

141

? ? - , , ? ? ( , , . .) - , ? ? 2: , , . , , . , , . . , , , . , , , . . , . . , , , ( , ). , -. , , , . , . , , ( ), ( ) . 3: , , -

1 4 2 .

. , ( ), . , 3040%, , - , , . , , . . , - . -, , ( , , , ). , . - - , , , . . , , . , . , , , , . , , , . , 3. 1. . -, . ( , ) ( ,
3

W. Pursche. Building Better Bids: Synergies and Acquisition Prices // Chief Financial Officer USA. 1988. P. 63-64.

7. , 1 4 3

). 2. . -, , , . ( ) (, ). 3. , ( ). , . , , , , . , ( ) . , - . , , , . . , , , , , . , . , , , , , , , . / . , , . , ,

1 4 4 .

. , , . , . ( . 5 , .) 4: , , , . , . : , . - , - , . , ( ), . : , , , , . , . , . , - - , 4.
4

.: Mark Mitchell and Ken Lehn. Do Bad Bidders Become Good Targets? [ .] Washington, DC: Office of Economic Analysis. Securities and Exchange Commission, 1985.

7. ,

145

. , , , . . , , , , , , , . , , . , . , . , . , ; , . . , . , , . - . 5: , , . , /. 7.2 , . . 1. -. : , , . ,

146

. 7.2. ,

. , . 2. . . , . , . , , . , , , . , , , . , - . , . , . . , . , , - , , . , ; . 3. . , , .

7. , 1 4 7

, . , . , , , . , , . , , . ( , ), , . , . , . , . , . . , , .

, , . -, () , , , . -, , . (). 7.3, . , , - . - (: , , ), - . , 150 ,


6-1719

1 4 8 .
7.3.

, 50 , 5 . : , ( 50%); , , ; ; , ; 75% , , . , . -,
5

]. Bleeke and D. Ernst (eds.). Collaborating to Compete. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1993.

7. ,

149

. -, . , 20% , , . . 50%. , -, . , , , ; , , , , . , , . , . . , 60% 31% . , . , . , , , . , . , , . , , , 79% 89% . , , 33%, . . -, , - ( , , , ). -,

150

. . , , 75% . , . , . , . , , , . , . . , , , , 50%. . . . , , . , . , , . , , , , . . , , . (), -. , , , , .

8
153 9 180 10 228

11
264

12 301
13 325

, , . , , . (, , ), , , , . : , . , , . 913 . , , : . ,

1 5 4 . :

. , , . , , . : . . , , . , . , .

( , ) , ( , , ). (, , ) , , . 8.1 . , , , , . (. . 8.2). - ( ) . 8.2 , , : , , , ;

8.

155

8.1. :

8.2. :

1 5 6 . :
8.1. (FCF): Hershey Foods
FCF ( .) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 331 349 364 379 395 412 429 44 466 485 14710 ( 7,5%) 0,930 0,865 0,805 0,749 0,697 0,648 0,603 0,561 0,522 0,485 0,485 FCF ( .") 308 302 293 284 275 267 258 251 243 235 7 138 9 854 2' , : ( .)

1,037 10217 450 10 667 -1 282 9 385 62,78

" . .

, ; (. . , ), , ; , , , . 8.1 Hershey Foods. (FCF). , , (, ,

8. 8.2. : Hershey Foods ( .)

157

1) EBITA , . 2) NOPLAT .

) . , , , . 8.2 Hershey Foods. , , , (). 8.2, , (, , , . .). , , , , .

158

. : 8.3. (WACC): Hershey Foods ( %)

(WACC). , . , ( , ). 8.3 WACC Hershey Foods. , , . 100 , . : - . : :


= + .

. , . , , ( . 12 ):

=

NOPLAT (1 - g/ROICI) WACC - g

NOPLAT ( ); ROICI ; g NOPLAT ; WACC .

8. 1 5 9 8.4. : Hershey Foods


NOPMT2oo9 ROIC, ' g WACC 634 21,3% 4,0% 7,5%

' _ N O P M 7 , t l ( 1 -gIROIQ _ ] i ] ? ] Q WACC-g

8.4 Hershey Foods. , , . . , , . , , , . (. . , , ) . , Hershey Foods, , 8.1, 9,4 ., 450 . , 1999 . , , , , .

160

. :

, , . ? ? ? , ? , , , ? , , . , , . 3 4, , , : (1) , , ; (2) ( ). . , , , . , , , ( , ). , . . (ROIC) , , :

NOPLAT ; + + + .

(. . 8.2) (NOPLAT ) ( ). NOPLAT

8.

161

(. . , ). , 1 NOPLAT 100 ., 25 .; , 75 .:
NOPLAT FCF 1 100,0 25.0 75,0

25 . . , 2 20%. NOPLAT 2 NOPLAT 1 (100 .) 20% 1 (= 25 . 0,20 = 5 .), 105 . ( , , , , 1, .) , . :

5%, 25% , 20%. , ( , ):


_ .

:
= 20% 25% = 0,2 0,25 = 0,05 = 5%.

, , . 100 . 1. 10%- .

162

. :

2 5 ., 1 50 . :

, , , . , , . , . , ( ). , 5, 8%, , , 40% ( ):

, . , , , , 9, , 8.5, . ? , , , . , , 12%, 5% 1071 ., 8% 1500 . , . 8.6 . , -

8. 8.5. ( .)
5% NOPLAT FCF 1 100 25 75 2 105 26 79 3 110 27 83 4 116 29 87 5 122 31 91 6 128 32 96 7 134 33 101 8 141 35 106 9 148 37 111 10 155 39 116 11 163 41 122

163

12 171 43 128

8% NOPLAT FCF 1 100 40 60 2 108 43 65 3 117 47 70 4 126 50 76 5 136 54 82 6 147 59 88 7 159 64 95 8 171 68 103 9 185 74 111 10 200 80 120 11 216 86 130 12 233 93 140

, . , . , , , . , , , , - . , ; , - . . ,
8.6. 1 '

11

: NOPLAT = 100 ., WACC = 10%, 25 ROIC = WACC.

1 6 4 . : 8.7. (ROIC): Hershey Foods ( , , .)

. , , ( ) . 8.7 Hershey Foods, 8.3 ( ) . ( %):


Hershey Foods ROIC WACC 1989-1993 . 19,0 9.7 9,3 1994-1998 . 21,5 8.7 12,8 3,1 2,3 1999-2008 . 22,7 7.5 15,2 4,5 2J_ 4,6

9,4 NOPLAT L3 9,9

8. 1 6 5

8.3.

: Hershey Foods

, Hershey 20%, WACC . , 1994 1998 . 12,8%. , , , a NOPLAT ( , ). . : ( )

166 . : . ( ) : , (. . , ); , ; , , ; . , , . , . 1890 ., : , [ ] , 1. , , (. . ), , , , . , , . , , , . , .
1

Alfred Marshall Principles of Economics. Vol. 1. New York: MacMillan & Co., 1890. P. 142.

8.

167

() , , :
= (ROIC - WACC).

, , . , , , 1000 ., 10%, 8%. 20 .:


= $1000 (10% - 8%) = $1000 2% = 20 .

, , ( , , ). , :

:
= $100 - $1000 8% = $100 - $80 = 20 .

, , , , . , . , 1 1000 . . NOPLAT 100 . (. . ROIC = 10%). , , , 100 . , 20 . . , :


= + .

168

. :

. , , , () . , . , . , . 20 . , ( ). , 1000 . ( ) . , 20 . , :

1250 . , 1250 . (, 100 .):

8.8 Hershey Foods, 8.9 . 1998 . Hershey


8.8. (): Hershey Foods ( , , .)

8. 8.9.

169

: Hershey Foods

1) .

293 . , Hershey 293 . , . , Hershey, , , . , , Hershey (10,2 .) ( 1998 . 1,8 .). : Hershey 8,4 . (10,2 . 1,8 .). . , .

170

. :

, . , : , , , . (), , 2 1950- 1960- . , , , (. . ) (. . ). : , ( , ). , - , . : , , , . [ - - . . ]: , , . , . , , , . . , . , ( ). , . , , . , , 2

.: Thomas E. Copeland and J. Fred Weston. Financial Theory and Corporate Policy. 3rd ed. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1988. P. 439-451; Richard A. Brealey and Stewart C. Myers. Principles of Corporate Finance. 5th ed. New York: McGrow-Hill, 1996. P. 525541 [ , . / . . 2- . .: , 2004. . 434-443, 5 0 2 - 5 1 6 ] .

8.

171

, , . : WACC . . , , . . WACC , ( . ):

k kj, S

; ; ; ; .

Hershey Foods. Hershey . ku WACO.

Hershey o ku 9390 . (. . 8.10). 642 . (. . 8.11). Hershey, 9200 .:


: 9 390 642 450 10 482 -1 282 9 200

, , ,

1 7 2 . : 8.10. : Hershey Foods

8.11, : Hershey Foods

, . 2%. , ( ) WACC .

8. 8.12.

173

, : Hershey Foods

1) D/V (D) (V); . 2) .

. , WACC , 9200 . (. . 8.12) , 3. , , . ,


3

, , WACC . WACC : , WACC, , , , .

1 7 4 . :

, . , , , , WACC. , . , (), . 8.13 Hershey Foods; 8,1% ( ). 9261 ., 1% , . , . - (. ):

ks .

8.13. : Hershey Foods

8. 8.14. , : Hershey Foods

175

U ; 1999 . (450 .), . 2 ' D/V (D) (V). 31 : 2009 . = 580,9 . ( ); = 4%; (RO) = 41,44% (ROIC = 21,27% WACC ).

, 9200 . (. . 8.14) , WACC . , , ; (. . 21 22). . , , . , -

176

. :

. , , , , 15 . . ( , ). Presto! - , . , . . ( ) , , . -. , -. , - .

, . , , , , , , . 20. : 1) , , ; 2) , , ; 3) . , .

8.

177

, , (, 1999 .) (, , ). , , , , , . , (. . ). , , , ( , ). ROIC. , . . ( ) , . , . , , , , , (. . 19). , , , , . , , :

178

. :

, :

, . , (, , ). , , . , , , . , . ( , ), . , , . () . 4. , , . ( , , ) .
4

. Miller and F. Modigliani. Dividend Policy, Growth and the Valuation of Shares //Journal of Business. 1961. September. P. 411-433.

8.

179

:
_

NOPLAT ; WACC ; ROIC ; , NOPLAT, ; N , ROIC; .

, , . , . : 9 ; 10 ; 11 ; 12 ; 13 .

, .

7-1719

I I I I

. , : , , . . . (, , , . , , - . 15.) , 8, ( ). . , , . ( , 180

9.

181

) , , , . , , . (, ROIC ). , . , , , , . . ? ? ? : ; ; ROIC ; ; . , , Heineken. .


, , , , . , . , . , . (NOPLAT)

9.1.

: Hershey Foods ( .)

9.2.

: Hershey Foods ( .)

182

9.

183

, , . Hershey Foods, (. . 9.1) (. . 9.2). , , , , () . Hershey Foods 9.3. . , (, , ) (. . ).

9.3. : Hershey Foods ( .)

1 8 4 . :

, ; . , , ( , ) . : , , , , . . . , , , ( ) - . , ( ) , . , , , . , , , ( ). , . , . , , . . , , , . , () , . , -

9.

185

. , ( ) 0,52,0% . , . , . ( , , .) . , , , , . , , 510 ., . . . , , . NOPLAT. , , , NOPLAT. , , , 30 , , . , , NOPLAT. NOPLAT , , . , . , , , , NOPLAT.

186

. :

. , , . , , . . , , . , , , NOPLAT. , . . , , , , (, ). , : , , , . . ( , ) , , ( ). . , , , , . , , . . , , . . ( , , . , .)

9.

187

. , , . , . , NOPLAT . . . . , : ; ; , ; . 9.3, ( ) , . (NOPLAT) NOPLAT , . 9.4 Hershey Foods, NOPLAT NOPLAT . , (EBITA). NOPLAT EBITA , , , . EBITA , . , , . EBITA , . , . EBITA. , EBITA, , , , . EBITA ( ), -

2 8 8 . :
9.4. NOPLAT: Hershey Foods ( .)

, . Hershey Foods EBITA 1998 . ( .): ( ) EBITA 216 33 0 -18 231

(, ), , , ( - , ). , , . Hershey 39%. , (33 .) (86 .),

9.

189

(39%). (, , , , .) . , . , , . , , , . , , - . , , (. . - - , ). . NOPLAT, 9.4, , NOPLAT . (ROIC) , NOPLAT , :

, . ROIC . , , , , NOPLAT. NOPLAT , , . 9.5 ROIC Hershey Foods. ROIC , (ROE) (ROA), , . , -

190

. : 9.5. ROIC: Hershey Foods

NOPLAT ( .) , ( .)

1995 323 1686 19,2 19,4 14,7

1996 371 1642 22,6 21,5 15,9

1997 442 1815 24,3 23,9 17,4

1998 434 1885 23,0 23,3 17,1

/?0/(%)
ROIC, ( %) ROIC, ( %)

. , . , . , , , , . () 8, ( ) , , . , , :
= (ROIC - WACC).

8:
= NOPLAT - ,

, . ,
= NOPLAT - WACC.

, . , , . , , , . 9.6 Hershey Foods.

9.

191

9.6. : Hershey Foods ( , , , .)

, . ( ), . (, ), , . , . , , . , 1998 . Hershey 293 . . Hershey 49 . 129 . , Hershey 1998 ., , 178 . . . ; ( ) / . Hershey , . ,

192

. :

, , . , , (FCF). , , ( , ). , , . FCF , , , . , , . NOPLAT , . NOPLAT , , :


FCF = NOPLAT - = = (NOPLAT + ) - ( + ) = = - .

9.7 Hershey Foods , , . , . . , EBITA, ( NOPLAT, ). , , , , , . . , ; , .

9. 9.7.

193

: Hershey Foods ( .)

. , . , , , . . ( ) (. . , ). . ( , .) npozux . ( ) . , .

1 9 4 . : . , , . . . . , , , . . , . . , , ( ), . . , :
= + .

, , , , . , , . . , , . . . , , NOPLAT. ( ). , 1 .

9.

195

. , . () , . . , , () , () 1. , (, , , ). , , ( , ), . , , , (, ). , , . - . , , , . . . , . . , 1 . , EBITA.
1

.: 52 (Financial Accounting Standards Board Statement 52).

1 9 6 . :

. . , , , . / . , , . : . ROIC , , , . . ROIC , . ROIC :

NOPLAT EBITA (1 - ), ROIC ( EBITA, NOPLAT) :

EBITA , :

, ROIC : 1) (EBITA/'), , ; 2) (/ ), , . , , , ,

9.

197

9.1. ROIC: Hershey Foods, 1998 .

. 9.1 ( Hershey Foods), ROIC. , ROIC. , , . . , ( , , ). , , . , ( , . .) . , , , . , ( Hershey Foods), , , . ,

1 9 8 . : , , ( , , . .), ( , , - ). , - , , ( ) , . - - . , - , . , (, . .). ? ? , - . ( 10 ). , . , - | , . , , (, ) .

. , , . , , , ? , ? ?

9. 9.8. : Hershey Foods

199

. . , , . 9.8 Hershey Foods. , , , . , , . EBITA, . ,

2 0 0 . :

. , . , , . Hershey Foods 19951998 . 7,1 11,1, ( Hershey ). , Hershey , (EBITA) 1/7 1998 ., . , , . , Hershey , . , . / , . ( . 10), , , . , . , , , . / , ( ), Hershey 1998 . 46% . 13%. , Hershey, . 46%, . , / .

9.

201

. ( /NOPLAT), ( / ). , , ( > 1), , , , . . , , . , . , , , , , . , . , , , , . - , , . Hershey Foods 100%. , Hershey , , . ( , , Hershey , 70%.) . ( )

2 0 2 . :

, NOPLAT, , . . , ROIC. ROIC , . ROIC , . , . ROIC , . , , ? , , , . , 1996 . Walt Disney Cap Cities/ABC. 1998 . Disney 18 . 16 . , ROIC ( %):
ROIC ROIC 1995 20,9 20,1 1996 19,5 9,6 1997 33,1 12,8 1998 24,7 11,2

ROIC , Disney , , . ROIC NOPLAT. , , . , , , . ( ) , , , .

9.

203

^ . , - , . , . -, ( , ) . EBITA , . EBITA. -, , , . , . , . : . ( , ) , , . , , . , , . , ( ) . , , . , -

2 0 4 . :

. ( , , , .) , , . , , , . NOPLA . , , , . NOPLAT , , . , , : , , NOPLAT , . , . ROIC, , . ( . . 9.9, , .) , 2 . , ( ). . ( ) ,


2

: (provision) ( , ). , , , (reserve). .

9.

205

9.9. NOPLAT, ( , , .)

206

. :

. , , , . , . ( . . 18.) , NOPLAT ( ):
( ) ( ) NOPLAT

NOPLAT NOPLAT

. 9.9 . , ( , , -). , , . . NOPLAT . , NOPLAT. . 9.9 , . , , , . , . NOPLAT, ROIC , .

9. 2 0 7 NOPLAT . . ROIC NOPLAT . 9.9 , . ( ) , . , . . , , , , . . : , , . , , , . 106 , . , , . , ( ), , .

2 0 8 . :

, , . , Hershey Foods . , NOPLAT 1998 . 6 . ( ), 283 . ( 2113 .), ROIC 23 21%. , . ( ), , , ( ), . , ( ), ROIC . ROIC. , , 1000 . ( , ). 1000 . 250 . . , , (EBITDA) 350 . ( , , .):
EBITDA NOPLAT ROIC ( , %) 0 1 350 250 100 750 10 2 350 250 100 500 13 3 350 250 100 250 20 4 350 250 100 0 40

1000

ROIC 10 40%, . 13%, , , , .

9.

209

9.2. (CFROI): Hershey Foods, 1997 . ( .)

ROIC (IRR). IRR , ROIC 15%. , IRR , CFROI Valuation3. 9.2 Hershey Foods ( 1997 .). (. . ) , . NOPLAT . , ( ). , , . IRR ( , CFROI). 9.2, CFROI 1997 . Hershey 21,3% ROIC 23,9% ( ). 9.3 ROIC CFROI 19901998 . . . , , , .
3

. Madden. CFROI Valuation: A Total System Approach to Valuing the Firm. Oxford, England: Buttenvorth-Heinemann, 1999.

210

. :

9.3. ROIC ROIC: Hershey Foods

CFROI , ROIC, , . CFROI ROIC, CFROI , . , , : ( 15 ); ; ; () . ROIC , , , , . , , . . , . ,

9.

211

. , . , , ( ) , , ROIC. , - , . . , , . , , , , , , , , . , , . ( , , ), , . , , , ROIC . , , NOPLAT . . , : , , , . -, , , , , - , . , , , . , . , , , . , , , , .


8-1719

2 1 2 . :

, . , , , . . ROIC NOPLAT . ROIC (. . ). , , , . ( . . 19).

HEINEKEN:

, Heineken4. . Heineken, , , Anheuser-Busch. Heineken Amstel. 1998 . ( ) Heineken 13,8 5, 33 500 . , Heineken : 9% (41% , 6% 44% , ). , , 25% Heineken ; Heineken . Heineken, Heineken .
4

Heineken. 19981999 . 2,02,1 . 2,20 .

9.

213

9.109.17 Heineken: 9.10 9.11 19931998 .; 9.129.14 NOPLAT, ; 9.15 ; , . Heineken , . 1998 . Heineken . 1996 . Birra Moretti Ficher Saint-Arnould. - 9.10. Heineken: ( )
, AsiopTH3auiw ( ) 1993 9 049 -1 198 -1 219 -756 -1 014 -663 -1 257 -1 643 0 -501 798 168 -152 814 -320 24 519 0 519 1994 9 974 -1 359 -1 418 -989 -1 070 -567 -1 407 -1 684 0 -586 895 158 -103 950 -318 -28 603 59 662 3 973 662 -140 -13 -127 4 354 1995 10 443 -1 387 -1 580 -1 028 -1 151 -616 -1 386 -1 734 0 -556 1 006 173 -99 1 079 -384 -31 664 0 664 4 354 664 -203 -9 -72 4 734 1996 12 189 -1 621 -1 436 -1 466 -1 393 -858 -1 603 -2 174 0 -626 1 012 178 -136 1 053 -369 -29 655 0 655 4 734 655 -176 139 -839 4514 1997 13512 -1 849 -1 642 -1 637 -1 409 -876 -1 878 -2 274 0 -744 1 203 159 -123 I 239 ^156 -21 761 0 761 4514 761 -176 134 -131 5 103 1998 13 822 -1 806 -1 741 -1 597 -1 448 -738 1 923 2 295 0 -822 1 453 189 -117 1 525 -518 -26 981 0 981 5 103 981 -254 -151 -612 5 066

2 1 4 . : 9.11. Heineken: ( )
- 1993 173 1 393 658 690 314 3 228 9 946 -5 583 4 363 0 541 8 132 479 530 86 951 2 046 462 584 130 168 528 239 3 973 8 132 1994 204 1 536 792 687 359 3 578 10 882 -6 187 4 695 0 646 8919 433 584 86 1 123 2 226 503 582 119 164 616 354 4 354 8919 1995 210 1 945 879 793 361 4 189 11 383 -6 669 4 715 0 738 9 641 586 701 105 1 223 2615 424 624 119 167 612 346 4 734 9 641 1996 246 1 382 1 220 985 479 4313 11 672 -6 169 5 503 0 838 10 654 774 885 106 1 454 3219 792 635 100 162 821 410 4514 10 654 1997 276 1 595 1 275 1 026 486 4 658 14 022 -8 368 5 654 0 945 11 257 476 903 106 1 564 3 050 909 629 100 157 909 401 5 103 11 257 1998 283 1806 1 218 996 490 4 793 14 283 -8 459 5 824 0 1 080 11 697 474 907 129 1 708 3 218 1 151 601 83 103 912 564 5 066 11 697

Heineken 1996 . . , . Heineken 2,3 . , , , 40 . , Heineken . Heine ken , Anheuser-Busch, . ROIC , .

Heineken .

9. 9.12. Heineken: NOPLAT ( )


EBITA EBITA EBITA 1994 895 13 88 996 -304 -2 690 318 36 5 -55 304 662 -2 88 -59 28 717 67 9 792 -103 690 1995 1006 12 -4 1014 -363 42 693 384 35 4 -61 363 664 42 -4
1)

215

1996 1012 11 209 1231 -358 11 885 369 48 4 -62 358 655 11 209 0 29 905 89 7 1001 -116 885

1997 1203 9 88 1301 -447 -7 847 456 43 3 -56 447 761 -7 88 0 21 864 80 6 950 -103 847

1998 1453 5 3 1461 ^194 -28 939 518 41 2 -66 494 981 -28 3 0 26 983 76 3 1062 -123 939

)' EBITA : : : : : : , : NOPLAT

31 733 65 8 806 -112 693

, . .

Heineken , . Heineken . , , , . , -, , -, , .

2 1 6 . : 9.13. Heineken: ( )
, , 1993 1 835 -1 481 355 4 363 -130 4 587 522 5 109 1 393 541 7 043 3 973 522 584 86 528 5 694 239 941 168 7 043 1994 2 042 -1 707 335 4 695 -119 4911 649 5 561 1 536 646 7 743 4 354 649 582 86 616 6 288 354 937 164 7 743 1995 2 243 -1 925 319 4 715 -119 4914 722 5 636 1 945 738 8319 4 734 722 624 105 612 6 797 346 1 009 167 8319 1996 2 931 -2 339 591 5 503 -100 5 995 1 561 7 556 1 382 838 9 776 4514 1 561 635 106 821 7 637 410 1 567 162 9 776 1997 3 063 -2 467 597 5 654 -100 6 150 1 692 7 842 1 595 945 10 382 5 103 1 692 629 I06 909 8 439 401 1 385 157 10 382 1998 2 987 -2 615 372 5 824 -83 6113 2 304 8417 1 806 1080 11303 5 066 2 304 601 129 912 9 012 564 1 625 103 11 303

1998 . Heineken, , 103 , . , . . ( , 5%), , , . ( , .) 1998 . 35%. , .

9. 9.14. Heineken: ( )
^
NOPLAT : . / (-) , / (-) / (-) / (-) 67 9 4 4 -86 140 0 65 8 -73 -2 38 185 0 89 7 -557 5 -34 175 0 -317 81) 6 181 5 30 175 0 -144 ^109 563 -317 -213 690 586 1276 19 -919 -11 -911 365 -127 693 556 1249 16 -575 0 -559 690 -72 885 626 1510 -272 -1414 -20 -1706 -196 -839 -1035 39 116 847 744 1591 -5 -895 0 -900 691 -131 1994 1995 1996 1997

217

1998

939 822 1761 225 -992 -17 -784 977 -612

238
-59 103

618
-101 112

560
28 103

364
-286 123 -211

138

220

478

-10

76 3 -240 54 -136 232 0

138

220

478

-10

V Heineken 601 912 . , , . , , NOPLAT .

, , , Heineken, , .

2 1 8 . : 9.15. Heineken: ( , , , )
ROIC ( %) WACC ( %) ( %) , NOPLAT ROIC ( %) 1(%) ( %) , NOPLAT 1994 15,0 10,5 4,5 4587 206 690 -483 206 13,5 10,5 3,0 5109 151 690 -539 151 1995 14,1 9,6 4,5 4911 220 693 -473 220 12,5 9,6 2,8 5561 157 693 -536 157 1996 18,0 8,9 9,1 4914 445 885 -439 445 15,7 8,9 6,8 5636 381 885 -504 381 1997 14,1 8,3 5,8 5995 347 847 -500 347 11,2 8,3 2,9 7556 216 847 -630 216 1998 15,3 7,3 7,9 6150 488 939 -451 488 12,0 7,3 4,6 7842 364 939 -576 364

, 6 . , 1997 ., 2,5% . , 1998 2010 . 2,6% , (. . 9.4). 1998 . 20% . . - , 80% ( ), , , (. . 9.18). Heineken , 50% (. . 9.5). , Anheuser-Busch : 8 5 % . , . (
6

: R. Benson-Armer, J. Leibowitz, and D. Ramachandran. Global Beer: What's on Tap?//McKinsey Quarterly. 1999. 1. P. 110121.

9. 9.16. Heineken: ( , , %)

219

220

. : 9.17. Heineken: ( )

9.4.

1) . 2) . : Canadian 1997 W o r l d Beer Report; Plato Logic's W o r l d Beer Report; McKinsey.

9. 9.18.

221

, 1997 .
Heineken Grolsch Interbrew Scottish & Newcastle Bass Carlsberg ( %) 51 15 14 27 23 15 47 22 11 55 13 9 8 6 41 23 8
J

Anheuser-Busch

Miller
Coors Interbrew Alken-Maes Binding Brau & Brunnen Holsten Kronenbourg Heineken Interbrew Yanjing Chocolate Products Tsingtao South African Breweries Brahma Antarctica Kaiser

3 3 98 48 25 17

), , . , , ( ), -. , . , , , . Heineken, Carlsberg Corona 140 . V 20% 1990 . (. . 9.6). Miller, Philip-Morris, 1997 . , ,

2 2 2 . :

9.5.

, . : - , . - : , , , , . , Guinness , , . Boston Beer ,

9.

223

. , . , . , (, , . .). : SDC; McKinsey.

9.6. , . , , Heineken Interbrew, , .

Heineken Heineken, , . Heineken : Anheuser-Busch, Carlsberg South African Breweries ( , ). 9.19 Heineken . Heineken

2 2 4 . : 9.19. , 1998 . ( .)

1) .

7 . 1998 . , Anheuser-Busch, , South African Breweries. EBITA 1998 . (0,7 .) Heineken , : 1/3 Anheuser-Busch. . : {TRS) (MVA). ; , . , ( ) , ( , ); . , () . , . Heineken , 1998 . (. . 9.7). Heineken 3 4 % , Anheuser-Busch (25%). (

9.7. ( %)

9. 9.20. / ( , , .'

225

, . .) / Heineken 3,3, a MVA 13 . (. . 9.20). , , , 3,30 . / Heineken Anheuser-Busch Carlsberg South African Breweries. , Heineken Anheuser-Busch, (Heineken ). / , : Heineken , . Anheuser-Busch, , , , 1998 . Carlsberg , . South African Breweries , - . . . 9.21 . 9.21. ( %)

1) .

2 2 6 . : 9.22. ROIC , 1998 .


( , , %)
1)

/ Anheuser-Busch ROIC: 1 6 , 1 % 1998 . 11,6% Heineken. ( . , ROIC .) , Heineken 7 , . Carlsberg , ROIC 5,5% 1998 . South African Breweries: ROIC 21,4% 1998 ., / . , ( 1520%) . 9.22 ROIC . Heineken , . , Heineken , Anheuser-Busch, - , .
7

ROIC Anheuser-Busch . 1995 1996 ., ( Earthgrains Company, Eagle Snacks St. Louis Cardinals).

9.

227

9.8. Heineken: ROIC WACC, 19941998 .

9.8, Heineken ROIC WACC 4,5% 1994 . 7,9% 1998 . . . Heineken . 1996 . , / : 19% 4% (. . 9.23). ( EBITAI ) 12,5 , Heineken , , . Heineken , . , Heineken , , . 9.23. Heineken: , 1998 .

10

, , , . (WACC) ( ), , 1. , 1990- , , . , , , , .
1

8 , , , . , , , 8, .

228

10. 2 2 9 , : , , , , ; , , , ; , , ( , . . , ); , , , ; ( ) , , ; , . , WACC, :

kb , ; , ( )2; ;
2

, . . , , , .

230

. :

V (V= + + S); k , ( ); ; ks ; S .

( , ; , ; ). , , . : ( ), (, ), , , / . : , , , , . . . .3 WACC . , , , . . , , , . , WACC . , , , , , , , (. . ). ,
3

. 20, .

10.

231

, , . , , : 1) (. . ); 2) (. . , ); 3) . . 1: . WACC. WACC, . WACC 4. , () , , , , , . , , . , . . , , : WACC , , ,


4

, , (. . 8) WACC.

232

. :

( ). , , WACC. , WACC, , , WACC. , WACC, . , , , . , : 1) ; 2) ; 3) , . . , . , , , () . - , ( ) , . : ; () ; ; . , , ().

10. 2 3 3 . , . , , (). , . : ; ; . , . . 1. . , , , 20- ? 2. . , , ; ( ) , 5. , , , , . 3. , ; . ( , .) , . . ( , *), The Alcar Group . * . . .

2 3 4 . : . , , . . . (. . 20). . , / , . , . , , . , . , . , , , . , , . , , . . , , , . : -, , ; -, . , 10- , ( ), . . ,

10. 2 3 5 . : . (Financial Accounting Standards Board, FASB), , (). . , , . . , ( ). , . , , . , , . . ( , ), , . ( , - , , .) . , . () . , . , ( ). , . -

2 3 6 . : , , . . . , . , 10 , , , . . , . . , . , (). - . , , . , , , . , , , , , , , , . , . . ( ) . , , , - -. , , . . , -

10.

237

. , , , , . , , / / , . , , . . . ( ), . , , , . , , . , , . . , : . , , , WACC. , WACC, , WACC, . . .

2 3 8 . : -, , . , , (, , ). , , ? , , . , , ? : , . , , () . , . , , , - , . , , , . 2: , , . : ( ); ( ); (, ); ;

10.

239

( ); . , (, ) (), . , , , . ( ) . . , , , Moody Standard & Poor. , , ( , / . .) . , , , . , , , . , , . , , (), , . , -

240

. :

. , ( ) . . 10% 1000 . . 951,96 . ? , :

0 , ; t; , .

: = 12%. , . , 5% 400 . , , , . , 11,09%. , , , 91 . ( ) . , , , . , , . 10.1 , . , , ( ), (26,7% 37,7% 10 ). , , .

10. 10.1. , 19711999 . ( % )


1 AAA 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,25 0,67 1,02 2 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,19 0,70 2,65 12,00 3 0,00 0,07 0,02 0,33 2,68 6,97 21,39 4 0,00 0,15 0,08 0,66 3,91 10,91 25,30 5 0,01 0,15 0,12 0,76 5,05 13,90 26,68 6 0,01 0,15 0,19 1,01 5,92 15,72 31,52 7 0,01 0,15 0,21 1,15 6,98 17,24 33,98 8 0,01 0,15 0,28 1,19 7,12 18,39 35,75 9 0,01 0,17 0,32 1,24 7,90 19,05 35,75 10 0,01 0,19 0,32 1,44 9,52 19,60 37,73

241

: . Altman. Defaults & Returns on High Yield Bonds: Analysis Through 1998 & Default Outlook for 19992000. New York University Salomon Center, January 1999.

10.2. , 1999 . ( %)
3 6 1 2 5 10 15 20 25 30 4,90 5,00 5,34 5,67 5,92 6,19 6,36 6,37 6,29 6,22 AAA 5,18 5,53 5,74 6,03 6,39 6,64 6,92 6,99 7,03 6,96 5,21 5,56 5,78 6,06 6,43 6,73 6,97 7,05 7,09 7,07 5,32 5,70 5,90 6,18 6,61 6,82 7,12 7,29 7,34 7,31 5,70 6,04 6,30 6,66 7,03 7,33 7,65 7,73 7,81 7,80 6,18 6,64 6,86 7,47 8,00 8,74 8,87 8,88 9,02 9,01 7,39 7,78 7,99 8,43 8,83 9,86 10,07 10,30 10,39 10,28

: Bloomberg Business News.

, . 10.2 , . (, ) , . , .

2 4 2 . :

, ( ). , , , ( ). , , , , , . , , , . , , , . , ( ), ( . 17):

kb (. . ) N ; 0 ( ); Xf N ( ); r0 N- .

, 7,25%, 4%. ? 1,543 , 1,4977 , 7,15%:

( 18 ) -

10.

243

, . , . , . , , , . :

; DIV ; .

, . , , , . , , . . 3: , . () (). , . . , ,
9-1719

2 4 4 . :

( , ) /, , . () 6. . ( , .) , (), ( ). (ks) :

10.1 . (ks) (). 1,0. , 1,0. , 2,0 0,3 . ( ) , , 10.1, E(rm) - rf. , , : ( ), ). , . . , ; .
6

., .: . Copelandand ]. Weston. Financial Theory and Corporate Policy. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1988; R. Brealey and S. Myers. Principles of Corporate Finance. New York: McGrow-Hill, 1996 [ ., . / . . .: -, 2004].

10.

245

10.1.

, , . , . : (1) ; (2) ; (3) . 10- 7. -, , . , . , , . , 10- . -, 10- , S&P 500 , 8 .


7

WACC , . , , ( ) . , , .: J. Campbell and L. Viceira. Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds? [ .] National Bureau of Economic Research, November 1998.

2 4 6 . : , 10- , (, 30- ). 10- , , , 30- . , , 10- , , 30- . , . 10- 9. . ( ) , E(rm) - rf , , . , , , ex ante. . 2000 . ( ) 4,55%. 3 8% (. . 10.3). . . , , , . 1,52%, . , , . . , ( , , ), , 9

2000 . 30- , .

10. 2 4 7 10.3. ( %)
" : : Ibbotson Associates, 1999. 19261998 . 7,5 5,9 19741998 . 1964-1998 .

5,5 4,9

4,1 3,6

1) 20- .

, ( ). , , 1987 ., , 1962 1985 ., 2,5 3,5%. , . , , , , , . 1987 . , 25%. - , ? 10.2 1930 1995 .
10.2.

2 4 8 . :

, ? , 1926 1995 . . . . , , . . , , , 50 . 100 . 50 . 100%, 5 0 % . 25% [= (100% - 50%)/2]. , ; . ? , , , : 100% 100%; -50% 100%; 100% -50%; -50% -50%. 10.3. ( ), , . , , . , , 50 . :
1/4 $200 + 1/2 $50 + 1/4 $12,50 = 78,125 .

, :
$50 1,25 1,25 = 78,125 .

, . , -

10.

249

10.3.

. , . , . , . , , . , , . 10.4 10 , . , , . 10.5 , . , , : 24 , ( ). ,

2 5 0 . : 10.4. ( %]

, . , , , , , , . , , , , . , . ( ) , , . (1988 .), (1988 .), (1988 .), 10.


10

. Fama and . French. Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns //Journal of Financial Economics. 1988. October. P. 3-26; A. Lo and MacKinlay. Stock Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test // Review of Financial Studies. 1988. P. 41 66; J. Poterba and L. Summers. Mean Reversion in Stock Prices//Journal of Financial Economics. 1988. October. P. 2760.

10.

251

, . , . , (1995 .), , ( ) 11. , , , . (1999 .), 39 1921 1996 .12 , XX . ( 1926 1996 .) 6,9% 4,3% ( ). 24 , 1931 ., ( , , , , , ), , 10 . . 95%, 84%. , , , . , , , 19261996 . 11 , 1920 ., 1,9% 1,4% . 1,52% (6,5%), , 4,55%. ex ante. ex ante, . 11

12

S. Brown, W. Goetzmann, and S. Ross. Survivorship Bias //Journal of Finance. 1995. July. P. 853-873. P.Jorion and W. Goetzmann. Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century. [ .] New Haven, CT: Yele School of Management, 1999.

252

. :

[(r m ], S&P 500 (g) , (DIV/S):

. , S&P 500. , , , (g = const). . , ( ) . , 13. , ( , . 8). , , (. . , , ). , St, , Bt, ( , ROE, , r, ):

ex ante : ; I/B/E/S (ROExBt+i-1) ; 12, , ROE 12 ; 13

W. Gebhardt, . Lee, and . Swaminathan. Toward an Ex-Ante Cost of Capital. [ .] Ithaca, NY: Cornell University, 1999.

10.

253

10.4.

; r. , , 14. ex ante ( 10- ) 23%, 5%. ex ante, . - , ex ante , . 10.4 31 1999 . 5.4, (R2 = 0,92), . WACC , 3%. 10.4 R2 0,79, , , , . , 3%- . , 5.4, , , ex ante.
14

/ Clans and J. Thomas. The Equity Risk Premium Is Much Lower than You Think It Is: Empirical Estimates from a New Approach. [ .] New York: Columbia University, 1998.

2 5 4 . :

, ex ante. 2000 . 3,5 5%. (). , , . , BARRA 10 . . , . , . 0,2 0,3 , . , , , , . , , . . , , , ( . . 14). ? 1992 . Journal of Finance , , :
, [ ], 15.

, ( ). , (1981 .) (1981 .) , . (1983 .) () . (1988 .) , . (1980 .), , (1985 .), ,


15

. Fama and . French. The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns // Journal of Finance. 1992. June. P. 427-465.

10.

255

/ 16. , . , , , . , . , , ( ) / . , . , , ( ). , . , 17, . -, , , :
( 69%) ...

-, : ( ) (6%), 1940 . -, ( ), 1941 1990 . . -,


16

R. Banz. The Relationship between Return and the Market Value of Common Stocks // Journal of Financial Economics. 1981. March. P. 3 18; M. Reinganum. Misspecification of Capital Asset Pricing: Empirical Anomalies Based on Earnings Yields and Market Values // Journal of Financial Economics. 1981. March. P. 19-46; S. Basil. The Relationship between Earnings Yield, Market Value, and Return for NYSE Common Stocks: Further Evidence // Journal of Financial Economics. 1983. June. P. 129156; L. Bhandari. Debt/Equity Ratio and Expected Common Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence //Journal of Finance. 1988. April. P. 507-528; D. Stattman. Book Values and Stock Returns // The Chicago MBA: A Journal of Selected Papers. 1980. P. 25-45; B. Rosenberg, K. Reid, andR. Lanstein. Persuasive Evidence of Market Inefficiency //Journal of Portfolio Management. 1985. P. 917. S. Kothary, J. Shanken, and R. Sloan. Another Look at the Cross-Section of Expected Returns //Journal of Finance. 1995. December.

17

256

. :

, ( 1%). , / , , Compustat, . , , Compustat. 1978 . 2700 6000 , , 1978 . , , , , . , Compustat, , , . CRSP (The Center for Research and Securities Prices ) , , - , , . , , , CRSP, Compustat, , , . ? , , , . , ( ), , . () . , , . (4) :

, .

10. 2 5 7

10.5.

(, ). : 1) (), , ; 2) , (); 3) , ; 4) , ; 5) (), . , , 18 . . 10.5. : .


18

., .: N. F. Chen. Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing //Journal of Finance. 1983. December. P. 1393-1414; N. Chen, R. Roll, and S. Ross. Economic Forces and the Stock Market//Journal of Business. 1986. July. P. 383-403; M. Berry, E. Burmeister, and M. McElroy. Sorting out Risks Using Known APT Factors // Financial Analysts Journal. Vol. 44.1988. March/April. P. 29-42.

258

. :

10.6.

MALI , 1988 .

. ( F) /. G , , . G , F, . , . , (rm), . 10.6 , . ( ) . , . , , . , - , , .

10.

259

10.6. : MALI

1) 5%. : Alcar's APT!; McKinsey.

10.6 . , , . , 4,7%, , , 25%. , ( ) , 50% .

260

. :

HEINEKEN:
Heineken 6,7% ( 31 1998 .); 10.7. , Heineken , ( ) (. . 10.8). , .

10.7. Heineken: , 31 1998 . ( %)

10.8. Heineken: , 31 1998 . ( , , )

" (. . ).

10.

261

, . , Heineken ( 4,3%), , , , . Heineken (35%), 2,8%. Heineken , . Heineken . , , , ( ), 10.9. ( ) , Heineken , . Heineken S&P Moody, , , . 1998 . Heineken 30 , ( ) 1998 . 4%. 4,3% 2,8% .

10.9. Heineken: , 31 1998 . ( , , )

2 6 2 . : , Heineken, , . , . Heineken 4 % , (4,3%). , 15 (. . 10.9). , , 31 1998 . Heineken 35,4 , 11 3 313,6 . , , . , / 3,9 ( ), 564 , 2,2 . (6,9%): ks = rf+[E(rm)-rf]fr ks = 4,0% + 5,0% 0,58 = 6,9%. : , , 4,0%; 5,0%; 0,58; (0,56), Heineken (/ = 4,5%).

(. . 10.10), , . , .

10.

263

0,40,7, Heineken (0,32) ( 0,8) . , , , , Heineken.

Heineken , . , , . .

11

, , . , : . . . . , . . . 1. () . : () . 2. , . 3. , , , . 264

11.

265

4. 2 3. 5. ( ) . , , . Heineken. , . 8, , ( . 12). . , , : ; ; . , (. . ) , . , . 1015 . , ( ). (35 ) , , , .

266

. :

, . , , , , 1015 . : 1) 35 , ( , . .) ; 2) , , , . , , , . Heineken , . , , . , , :
, - . , ...

. . , , ; . , , ( ) , . . , ( ). , ROIC WACC, : 1) ,

11.

267

; , ( ) ( , , ); 2) ; 3) . ( ) . . : (1) , ; (2) ; (3) -; (4) , , . ( ) ( ), . 1. 11.1. : -; ; ; .

11.1.

. Porter. Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors. New York: Free Press, 1980. [ .: . ., . . : / . . .: , 2004. . 188-203.]

268

. :

. , . , , , . ( / / ) , , . . , . , , , . , . , , . , , . , , , - . , . , . , Wal-Mart , , , . , . , , . , , . . ,

11.

269

11.2.

, , . . . , 11.2. , , . , , . , , . : (). , . , , , . , , . , . , , . , , ,

270

. :

, . , - , . , , . , , , . , . , , . , , . , , , . .

- - , (. . 11.3). - , . - , , . - . -? ? ( -. , , .) ? , -

11.

271

11.3. -

. , - . -, , , , -. , ( ). , , , , . . , , . , 2. 11.4. : / . , ( , ), . .
2

. Coyne and S. Subramaniam. Bringing Discipline to Strategy // McKinsey Quarterly. 4. 1996. P. 1425. [ ., , // McKinsey. 1. 2002. . 32-45.]

272

. :

11.4.

, . , - I , . , , . , , , , . : . , . : /. , . . , . , , , . . ,

11.

273

. , , . , , . . , , , . , 2 . . , 5 . . , , , , . , . , . . . (, . .) . . 1. . . 2. , ( ), , , . ( .) 3. , , . 4. . . 5. / . 6. ROIC , .

274

. :

, : ( ) .

, ( ) , ( ). , , . . . ( ) , . , , 11.1. 9,610,4%, 5 18%. , 1518% . , . . ( ). , , , , , . : 1) ; 2) , ; 3) , .


11.1. :
1 ( .) ( .) ( %) ( %) 1000 100 10 1100 105 9,6 5 2 3 1200 117 9,8 12 4 1300 135 10,4 18

11.

275

, , , . ( . Heineken .) , 8, , . , 3. , , , . , , . :
1 + = - 1. 1 +

, 10- 6%, , , 2,5%, 3,4%. ? -, , -. -, (), . -, 3

, , . , . , - , . , 4%, , , 1% . , 3% . , 3%, 6,1% (= 1,03 1,03 - 1,00).

-1719

2 7 6 . :

11.5.

, 4 . . . 1. 1926 1998 . 5,3%, 3,0%. , - 2,2%5. 2. : ( ) . 11.5 20- . - 2,0% 1958-1972 . 4,1% 1987-1998 . ( 19731986 ., ).
4

.: . Fama and M. Gibbons. A Comparison of Inflation Forecasts //Journal of Monetary Economics. 1984. May. P. 327348; G. Hardouvelis. The Predictive Power of the Term Structure during Recent Monetary Regimes // Journal of Finance. 1988. June. P. 339-356. Ibbotson Associates. Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation 1999 Yearbook. Chicago: Ibbot son, 1999.

11.

277

3. , . 1999 . 4% ( , ). , . , , . . , 34%.

, , . , . , , . , , . , . , . , . , , , . , , , . , , , , , . , ; . 11.2 , . , , 10%. , ,

278

. :
11.2. ( , , .)

( %) 15 65 20

2662 3694 4736

2520 2520 2520

142 1174 2216

1228

. ( . , Heineken.)

( ), . , . , , . ? ? , , ? ? ? ? , ? , ? , , ? ? ? ? , ?

11. 2 7 9 , . ? , ? ? , ?

. . . . 11.6 11.7 ( ), ROIC 10 15 ( ). ROIC 10 10% 15 . : 40% 10 20% 15 . , , 11.6. ROIC ( %)

2 8 0 . : . ( ; , , .) , .

11.7. ( %)

11.8. ( %)

11. 2 8 1 11.3. ROIC ( %)


- 19661975 25 13 13 12 10 7 7 19761985 17 II 12 II 9 8 19861995 27 N 8 6 10 9 7

. 11.8, 70% +20%. ( , 10% 70% 8% 12%.) ROIC: 60% 20%. ROIC . 11.3 ROIC 10- 1966 1995 . , , . ROIC . ROIC . , ( ). , . , , (. ). , (, , ) , . 11.4 . , . - ( ), - . .

282

, . :

11.4. ( %)
- 1966-1975 10 9 7 14 9 12 7 1976-1985 3 2 8 6 5 II 6 34 25 5 1986-1995 12 4 10 -2 6 5 2 20 14 -1

. , , . ( - ). . , - , . , . , , , .

11.

283

HEINEKEN:
Heineken, , . Heineken . . 10 . 15- (. . 12). Heineken, , , . - , Heineken (. . 11.9). 11.9. Heineken: -

/ Heineken , , Van Munching & Co.

Heineken

, ,

Heineken , , , Van Munching & Co.

2 8 4 . : . Heineken . , . . Heineken , , . , . Heineken , , . . Heineken , , . , . . Heineken , . . Heineken. Heineken ; 1 70 . (Heineken Amstel) . Heineken , . , Heineken .

Heineken - . 1980- . , 1991 . ( Van Munching & Co.), , Sorgyar (), Interbrew, Zaity Bazant (), Birra Moretti (), Fisher Group Saint-Arnould (), Zywiec (). Heineken , Interbrew (. . 11.10). 11.5, Heineken ,

11.

285

" , . . 3) Fisher and Saint-Arnould 1996 . 41 (45%) Lion Nathan. 5) 51% Grupo Modelo.
2)

: McKinsey .

11.10. , 1990 . (

%)

( 1997 .). , ( ) - , , Heineken , - . Heineken , , : Anheuser-Busch, Miller Coors. 1999 . Corona Heineken .

11.5. , 1997 .
- Heineken, Carlsberg, Danone, Bass AB, Miller, Brahma, Interbrew AB, Miller, Coors, Busch Kirin, Asahi, San Miguel, Foster's SAB, Heineken, BGI, Guinness Heineken ( %) 8,1 4,2 34 2,7 14,3 Heineken 1 9 12 7 2

286

. :

, ( ). , . : . , , , Heineken, . , , , , . . , , , , . . 1. . , . Heineken , 1990- , . 2003 . 6,6% 6 , 1 % 1998 . Heineken ( ) . 2. . , Miller Busch, , . Heineken , . 3. /' . . Heineken ( , ) /. . 12 ( ) . 1 3.

, 15- , , a Heineken .

11.

287

, 10 () . ; , . 11.6 11.7. , . Merrill Lynch, 1998 ., , . , ( ) . Heineken ( ) 1,5% , , - Heineken . 13% , . Heineken 6 , 1 % 1998 . 6,6% 2003 . , . 2% (. . , ) . , , , 6% . Heineken ( ), , 1994 1998 . 83,586,6%, 1998 . 1996 1998 - , 1996 . (Fisher Group, Saint-Arnould Birra Moretti). . (33,834,3% ) . , . . , , . 1996 . 1996 .

11.6. Heineken: ( ; , , %)

288

11.7. Heineken: ( ; , , %)

289

290

. :

. , ( 1998 .). , Heineken, ; . 1994 1998 . 1114% . , ! . Heineken . , . , , . 8,5%, 1998 . , 4,3%. . Heineken 35%: . EBITA Heineken (3336%) , . 1998 . (33,8%). , , - ( ) ( ). , , . 1994 1998 . Heineken 3% , 1996 1997 . ( -

11.

291

). . , ( 11,8% ). 3,3% . , . ( ) ? ( 2% ; 12% )? ? - ? , , , ?

, . , , , . . , . , , , . , ( , ) ( ), , ( ). . , . , Heineken . 1996 . ( 1996 . 45%, 41%.) , , 1998 ., 19961998 . , , , , .

2 9 2 . : : - . , . 1% .

, , 1998 . Heineken ( ). Heineken, , . Heineken

11.8. Heineken: ( ; )
, , ( ) 1998 13 822 -1 806 -1 741 -1 597 -1 448 -738 -1 923 -2 295 0 -822 1 453 189 -117 1 525 -518 -26 981 0 981 5 103 981 -254 -151 -612 5 066 1999 14 796 -1 933 -1 864 -1 709 -1 550 -790 -2 059 -2 457 0 -867 1 568 59 -138 1 489 -503 -42 944 0 944 5 066 944 -245 0 -253 5512 2000 15 551 -2 032 -1 959 -1 796 -1 629 -830 -2 164 -2 582 0 -911 1 648 46 -97 1 596 -539 -45 1 011 0 1 011 5512 1 011 -1 011 0 -91 5 421 2001 16313 -2 131 -2 055 -1 885 -1 708 -871 -2 270 -2 709 0 -956 1 729 27 -79 1 676 -566 -48 1 062 0 1 062 5 421 1 062 -275 0 -95 6112 2002 17 406 -2 274 -2 193 -2 011 -1 823 -929 -2 422 -2 890 0 -1 020 1 844 35 -66 1 813 -613 -52 1 149 0 1 149 6 112 1 149 -304 0 -299 6 657 2003 18189 -2 376 -2 291 -2 101 -1 905 -971 -2 531 -3 020 0 -1 065 1 927 30 -45 1 913 -647 -54 1 212 0 1 212 6 657 1 212 -1 212 0 -108 6 550

11.

293

, , . , , Heineken . , Heineken . (, - Unilever 1998 .) .

, , . , Heineken . , Heineken

11.9. Heineken: ( ; )
- 1998 283 1 806 1 218 996 490 4 793 14 283 -8 459 5 824 0 1 080 11 697 474 907 129 1 708 3218 1 151 0 601 83 103 912 564 5 066 11 697 1999 302 1 409 1 304 1 066 524 4 606 15 326 -9 183 6143 0 1 134 11 883 218 971 138 1 741 3 068 933 0 617 82 103 989 581 5512 11 883 2000 318 820 1 371 1 120 551 4 181 16 397 -9 941 6 456 0 1 190 11 827 150 1 020 145 1 830 3 145 783 0 634 78 103 1 065 599 5 421 11 827 2001 333 1 077 1 438 1 175 578 4 602 17 505 -10 733 6 773 0 1 250 12 624 257 1 070 152 1 919 3 399 526 0 651 74 103 1 142 618 6112 12 624 2002 356 935 1 534 1 254 617 4 696 18 804 -11 577 7 227 0 1 312 13 235 0 1 142 162 2 048 3 352 526 0 670 70 103 1 219 638 6 657 13 235 2003 372 530 1 603 1 310 645 4 460 20 006 -12 454 7 552 0 1 378 13 390 0 1 193 169 2 140 3 503 526 0 690 64 103 1 295 660 6 550 13 390

294

. : 11.10. Heineken: NOPLAT ( ; )

EBITA EBITA EBITA NOPLAT EBITA EBITA . : : : : : , : NOPLAT

1998 1 453 5 3 1 461 -494 -28 939 518 41 2 -66 494

1999 1 568 4 77 1 649 -532 16 1 133 503 48 2 -21 532 944 16 77 0 42 1 079 89 3 1 171 -38 1 133

2000 1 648 4 77 1 729 -559 17 1 187 539 34 2 -16 559 1 011 17 77 0 45 1 150 63 3 1 216 -30 1 187

2001 1 729 4 77 1 810 -586 18 1 241 566 28 2 -9 586 1 062 18 77 0 48 1 204 51 3 1 258 -17 1 241

2002 1 844 4 77 1 925 -625 19 1 319 613 23 2 -12 625 1 149 19 77 0 52 1 296 43 3 1 342 -23 1 319

2003 1 927 4 77 2 008 -654 20 1 375 647 16 2 -11 654 1 212 20 77 0 54 1 363 29 3 1 394 -20 1 375

981 -28 3 0 26 983 76 3 1 062 -123 939

( / 2) . . , , , . , . , , . Heineken 1998 . . , , .

11. 11.11. Heineken: ( ; )

295

1998 2 987 -2 615 372 5 824 -83 6113 2 304 8417 1 806 1 080 11 303 5 066 2 304 601 129 912 9 012 564 1 625 103 11 303 1999 3 197 -2 712 485 6 143 -82 6 547 2 557 9 104 1 409 1 134 11 646 5 512 2 557 617 138 989 9812 581 1 151 103 11 646 2000 3 360 -2 850 510 6 456 -78 (, 889 2 648 9 536 820 1 190 11 547 5 421 2 648 634 145 1 065 9913 599 933 103 11 547 2001 3 525 -2 990 535 6 773 -74 7 234 2 743 9 977 1 077 1 250 12 304 6112 2 743 651 152 1 142 10 801 618 783 103 12 304 2002 3 761 -3 190 571 7 227 -70 7 728 3 042 10 770 935 1 312 13017 6 657 3 042 670 162 1 219 11 751 638 526 103 13017 2003 3.930 -3 333 597 7 552 -64 8 084 3 150 11 235 530 1 378 13 143 6 550 3 150 690 169 1 295 11 854 660 526 103 13 143

, ,

11.811.14 (. . 292297) , , NOPLAT, , 19992003 . ( ).

20042013 . , , , ( EBITA) . 11.15 (. . 298), 11.16 (. . 299). , ,

2 9 6 . : 11.12. Heineken: ( ; )
NOPLAT : : : (-(/ , / (-) / (-) / (-) 1998 939 822 1 761 225 -992 -17 -784 977 -612 364 -286 123 -211 -10 76 3 -240 54 -136 232 0 -10 1999 1 133 867 2 000 -114 -1 186 -2 -1 301 699 -253 446 -54 38 397 828 89 3 474 0 25 236 0 828 2000 1 187 911 2 098 -25 -1 224 -4 -1 253 845 -91 754 -57 30 589 1 316 63 3 218 0 27 1 004 0 1 316 2001 1 241 956 2 196 -25 -1 272 -4 -1 301 895 -95 800 -60 17 -257 501 51 3 150 0 29 268 0 501 2002 1 319 1 020 2 338 -36 -1 473 -1 -1 513 825 -299 526 -62 23 142 628 43 3 257 0 31 294 0 628 2003 1 375 1 065 2 440 -26 -1 391 -6 -1 422 1 018 -108 910 -66 20 405 1 269 29 3 0 0 33 1 204 0 1 269

, . 4,5 4% ( Heineken 6,6%). , ( EBITA) 1 1 % , 2,9% 41,5%. ROIC 17%, 1998 . ROIC 15,3%.

11.17 (. . 300) Heineken .

11.

297

11.13. Heineken: ( ; , , )
ROIC ( %) W(%) ( %) , SOPLAT ROIC ( %) \(%) ( %) , NOPLAT 1998 15,3 7,3 7,9 6 150 488 939 -451 488 12,0 7,3 4,6 7 842 364 939 -576 364 1999 18,5 6,7 11,8 6113 721 1 133 -412 721 13,5 6,7 6,7 8417 566 1 133 -567 566 2000 18,1 6,7 11,4 6 547 745 1 187 -441 745 13,0 6,7 6,3 9 104 573 1 187 -614 573 2001 18,0 6,7 11,3 6 889 777 1 241 -464 777 13,0 6,7 6,3 9 536 598 1 241 -643 598 2002 18,2 6,7 11,5 7 234 831 1 319 -488 831 13,2 6,7 6,5 9 977 646 1 319 -672 646 2003 17,8 6,7 11,0 7 728 854 1 375 -521 854 12,8 6,7 6,0 10 770 649 1 375 -726 649

11.14. Heineken: ( ; )
- (-) (-) 1998 6 -57 -30 4 -4 -144 -225 170 822 992 0 0 -151 -135 -286 1999 20 86 70 35 -64 -33 114 319 867 1 186 0 0 0 -54 -54 2000 15 67 54 27 -50 -89 25 313 911 1 224 0 0 0 -57 -57 2001 16 67 55 27 -50 -90 25 316 956 1 272 0 0 0 -60 -60 2002 22 96 79 39 -72 -129 36 454 1 020 1 473 0 0 0 -62 -62 2003 16 69 56 28 -51 -92 26 325 1 065 1 391 0 0 0 -66 -66

11.15. Heineken: ( ; , , %)

/ : ( ) ( ) ( ) 1' / / / ( ) ROIC ROIC ROIC EBITA NOPLAT ROIC NOPLAT


1)

1999
2,0 2,8 4,8 0,0 3,0 -1,0 6,8 14 796 2,0 1 333 6,2 83,1 11,1 31,3 2,7 41,5 2,3 26,1 17,9 12,9 7,1 12,9 20,6

2000
1,5 2,6 4,1 0,0 1,0 0,0 5,1 15 551 2,0 1 359 6,3 85,1 11,1 31,4 2,8 41,5 2,3 25,7 17,7 12,7 5,2 4,8 4,7

2001
1,5 2,4 3,9 0,0 1,0 0,0 4,9 16313 1,5 1 380 6,3 87,3 11,1 31,4 2,8 41,5 2,3 25,6 17,6 12,7 5,0 4,7 4,6

2002

2003

2004 1,5 1,9 3,4 0,0 1,0 0,0 4,4 18 989 1,5 1 444 6,6 94,9 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,4 17,4 12,6 4,4 4,4 4,4

2005 1,5 1,8 3,3 0,0 1,0 0,0 4,3 19 806 1,5 1 466 6,6 96,3 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,4 17,4 12,7 4,3 4,3 4,3

2006 1,5 1,7 3,2 0,0 1,0 0,0 4,2 20 638 1,5 1 489 6,6 97,7 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,4 17,4 12,8 4,2 4,2 4,2

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
1,5 1,5 3,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 4,0 25 133 1,5 1 604 6,6 105,3 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,3 17,3 13,5 4,0 4,0 4,0

2012

2013

2014

1,5 2,2 3,7 0,0 3,0 0,0 6,7 17 406 1,5 1 401 6,5 91,2 11,1 31,5 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,7 17,6 12,7 6,8 6,4 6,3 17,0 4,0

1,5 2,0 3,5 0,0 1,0 0,0 4,5 18189 1,5 1 422 6,6 93,5 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,4 17,4 12,5 4,6 4,3 4,2

1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 3,0 3,0 3,0 3,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,0 4,0 4,0 4,1 21 484 22 343 23 237 24 167 1,5 1 511 6,6 99,2 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,3 17,3 13,0 4,1 4,1 4,1 1,5 1 534 6,6 100,7 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,3 17,3 13,1 4,0 4,0 4,0 1,5 1 557 6,6 102,2 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,3 17,3 13,2 4,0 4,0 4,0 1,5 1 580 6,6 103,7 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,3 17,3 13,3 4,0 4,0 4,0

1,5 1,5 3,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 4,0 26139 27 1,5 1 628 6,6 106,9 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,3 17,3 13,6 4,0 4,0 4,0

1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 3,0 3,0 0,0 0,0 1,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 4,0 4,0 184 28 271 1,5 1,5 1 677 6,6 110,1 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,3 17,3 13,8 4,0 4,0 4,0

1 653 6,6 108,5 11,0 31,6 2,9 41,5 2,3 25,3 17,3 13,7 4,0 4,0 4,0

298

E8ITA.

:
, WACC, ) , NOPLAT EBITA NOPLAT NOPLAT , WACC ( %) NOPLAT 1999 6 143 404 6 547 2 557 9 104 2000 6 456 432 6 889 2 648 9 536 2001 6 773 461 7 234 2 743 9 977 2002 7 227 501 7 728 3 042 10 770 2003 7 552 533 8 084 3 150 11 235 2004 7 884 556 8 440 3 150 11 590 2005 8 223 580 8 803 3 150 11 953 2006 8 568 604 9 I73 3 I50 12 323 2007 8 920 629 9 549 3 150 12 699 2008 9 277 654 9 931 3 150 13 081 2009 9 648 681 10 328 3 150 13 478 2010 2010 10 034 708 10 741 3 150 13 891 2011 2011 10 435 736 11 171 3 150 14 321 2012 10 852 765 11 618 3 150 14 768 2013 11 286 796 12 082 3 150 15 233 2014 11 738 828 12 566 3 150 15716

14 796 15551 16313 17 406 18 189 18 989 19 806 20 638 21 484 22 343 23 237 24 167 25 133 26 139 27 184 28 271 -13 147 -13 822 -14 503 -15 480 -16 181 -16 89.'! -17 619 -18 359 -19 112 -19 876 -20 671 -21 498 -22 358 -23 252 -24 182 -25 150 1 649 -516 1 133 1 133 -687 -14h 1 729 -542 1 187 1 187 -433 754 1 810 -569 1 241 1 241 -441 800 1 925 -607 1 319 1 319 -793 526 2 008 -634 1 375 1 375 ^165 910 2 097 -662 1 435 1 435 -356 1 079 2 187 -690 1 497 1 497 -363 1 134 2 279 -719 1 560 1 560 -370 1 190 2 372 -749 1 624 1 624 -376 1 247 2 467 -779 1 688 1 688 -382 1 307 2 566 -810 1 756 1 756 -397 1 359 2 668 -842 1 826 1 826 -413 1 413 2 775 -876 1 899 1 899 -430 1 470 2 886 -911 1 975 1 975 -447 1 528 3 002 -947 2 054 2 054 -465 1 590 . 122 5 -985 2 136 2 136 -483 1 653

299

6 113 6,7 412 1 133 -412 721

6 547 6,7 441 1 187 -441 745

6 889 6,7 464 1 241 -464 777

7 234 6,7 488 1 319 -488 831

7 728 6,7 521 1 375 -521 854

8 084 6,7 545 1 435 -545 890

8 440 6,7 569 1 497 -569 928

8 803 6,7 593 1 560 -593 966

9 173 6,7 618 1 624 -618 1 005

9 549 6,7 644 1 688 -644 1 045

9 931 6,7 669 1 756 -669 1 087

10 328 6,7 696 1 826 -696 1 130

10 741 6,7 724 1 899 -724 1 175

11 171 6,7 753 1 975 -753 1 222

11 618 6,7 783 2 054 -783 1 271

12 082 6,7 814 2 136 -814 1 322

300

. : 11.17. Heineken: ( ; , , %)
20042008 4,2 4,2 4,2 11,0 2,3 31,6 17,4 6,7 20092013 4,0 4,0 4,0 11,0 2,3 31,6 17,3 6,7

EBITA
EBITA/

19941998 9,0" 10,3" 6,2 10,0 2,2 32,2 14,8 9,0

19992003 5,6 6,6 5,8 11,1 2,3 31,4 17,6 6,7

/ ( ) ROIC WACC ( ) 341,1 785,6 966,9 1177,2

1) EBITA .

ROIC . , . 20042008 . , Heineken, . .

12

8 , . , . , , :
+ = .

. . , , . . , . 12.1 , ( ). 56 125% . , 301

3 0 2 . :

12.1. ( ; %)

. , , , , . . , , . , . , / , , - . , , - , ( ), , , - , , . . - , , / , .

12.

303

, . , . , , ( ). , . , , :

CV ; NOPLATT+1 NOPLAT ( ) ; g NOPLAT ; ROICI ; WACC .

, ( , ROIC WACC), . , WACC, : , ; NOPLAT , ; . , ,

3 0 4 . :

( ):

FCFT+1 .

1 . (FCF) NOPLAT :

IR , NOPLAT, .

8 , (IR), NOPLAT (g) (ROICj): :

:
FCF= NOPLAT

, :

, . , ? , , . 1

., .: . Copeland and J. Fred Weston. Financial Theory and Cor porate Policy. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1988. Appendix A.

12.

305

. ( ), NOPLAT, , . , NOPLAT , . . , . , , ( ). . :
NOPLAT FCF 1 100 50 50 2 106 53 53 3 112 56 56 4 120 60 60 5 126 63 63

. NOPLAT 6%. ( NOPLAT, ) 12%. WACC 11%. , 150 :

, :

306

. :

, ( 150 , ). , , . :
= + + .

( ) , , . (CVEP):

; NOPLATT+1 NOPLAT ; g NOPLAT ; ROICI ; WACC . T+1

, , . (. . ROICI = WACC), , .

12.

307

, , , . , . -, , . -, ROIC . -, , , . ? , , . 12.2 12.1, , , 893 . . 79% , 10 60%.

12.2. , ( %)

11-17)9

308

. :

, 12.1. 5 10 ( , , .)

12.

309

, . , . , , , , , , , . , . , , . , , . 12%, , , 9%. , ( , ). , . . ROIC , . , . , . , , , . , , , . , ( ), . , , ( ) .

310

. :

12.3. ROIC

, . , . 12.3 ROIC , 4,5%, 18%, 10%, WACC 10%. , . 11 18% 14% (. . ). 12% 23 11% 37 . ? , , . 12.4 . , 85% . 12.5 , , . 12% 4% . , , , . 12.5, 877 ., 71% . , 71% , -

12.

311

12.4.

12.5.

. . , 85% . , , . . 12.6

312

. :

12.6.

, . 62% - . (8% 2007 . 30% 2007 .). : (NOPLAT), (FCF), (ROIC), NOPLAT (g) (WACC). , , . 12.7 ( ) . NOPLAT 100 ., a WACC 10%. , ROIC 14% 6 8% 50% 1400 . 2100 . . . , , .

12.

313

12.7.

(WACC = 10%, NOPLAT = 1 00 .)

, . NOPLAT. NOPLAT . , , . , . . -, NOPLAT, . NOPLAT , , . , . , NOPLAT. ROIC. . , ; ROIC WACC. , , , , ROIC , .

3 1 4 . : . , . , . , , , . WACC. , . . , , ROIC. , . 12.8 , . ; .

, :

12.8.

12. 3 1 5 ; ; . . 12.2 . 9 10 ( ) 10%. 5%. , , 11 ( ) 10 5%, . , . , , , , . , , . . , 18% , . . , .


12.2. ( , , .)
9 10 11 ( 5%) EBIT NOPLAT .: / ( %) / ( %) 1000 -850 150 -60 90 27 117 30 27 57 60 300 30 2,7 1100 -935 165 -66 99 30 129 33 30 63 66 330 30 2,7 1155 -982 173 -69 104 32 136 35 32 67 69 362 31 2,7 1155 -982 173 -69 104 32 136 35 17 52 84 347 30 1,5

3 1 6 . : , , . . , Coca-Cola PepsiCo , . ROIC WACC . , , ( , ). . - . , : , . , . , , , . . , , , . , , , , , . . 12.3 , , , . ( , .) : (1) (2) . , ( ) .

12.

317

12.3. : ( .)
/ / 80% ; 70% 15 1,4 , 268 186 624 375 275

428

{). , . :

, , :

, ROICI = WACC, :

(WACC - g) , :

. , , , NOPLAT . ,

3 1 8 . :

, . , ( ), . : . , - , . , , :

g . , , NOPLAT - . ( ), , , . , , , ROIC :

12.9.

12.

319

12.9 . , ( , ) , . , NOPLAT , ROIC . , ROIC WACC, . , , . : , , / , / . , . . , , . . , . , . . -, . . . -, - . , . , . , . . / (/) , . , , ; /. ,

3 2 0 . :

/ . , . , , , . , /, . ? 8, / , . , . , /, . , . , / /, , . , , 18- , 18- . / , , , . , /, , , , , 18. , /, , . / , ; , . ( /) , , . - . . -

12.

321

. , ROIC. , 8% 15%. 5%, ROIC 11%:

; ; ; ; ROICB . N gA gB ROICA

: , gB WACC ( ). 2:

, , . , ROIC 3:

2 3

. .

3 2 2 . :

ROIC, :

ROIC . , , . , , ( ). , NOPLAT ROIC . ROIC NOPLAT ( NOPLAT , ). NOPLAT, (. . FCF , NOPLAT). , , .

12.

323

HEINEKEN:
, Heineken. . NOPLAT (, ) NOPLAT 2014 . 10, NOPLAT 2014 . Heineken 2136 . WACC 6,7%. Heineken. Heineken ( ) 2013 . 1 7%. . , Heineken . Coca-Cola Pro cter & Gamble, Heineken , , (. . , ). Heineken NOPLAT 4%: 2% 2% . , 2013 ., 59,6 :

(CVEP) 201 3 ., 47,5 :

324

. :

, Heineken . . 2013 ., 59,6 , :

13

, , .

, , , . . 1. ( ) (WACC). 2. WACC . , , . , 10 , 10, 11 . 3. , . ( , .) . , , 325

3 2 6 . : . , WACC ( , ). 4. , ; . , , , . . , , ( ). 5. , , , . ( . 10.) , , . , , , . ( , ), . ( , ), 1. 13.1 . , , . , . ,


1

. . ( ) , , .

13.

327

13.1. ( .)
( ) 5000 50 300 100 5450 -1000 -400 -100 -200 -200 3550

. , . , , , , . . , . , ? ? ? ( ). , ? , ? ? , , , . . , . , , , . ; .

3 2 8 . :

, , . , . , . , - , , , . . , , . , , , . . , ; . , . , ? ? , ? , . , , . , ? ? , . , , . , . ? , , , , , .

13.

329

, , ? , , ? , . , . , , . , .

, , , , . . , . , . -, : , , , . , . . , , , , , . . , , . . 510 , , , . , . , .

330

. :

: , , , . , . , , , / 20. 0,5 1214%. 15 1% 7%. , 15%, . 13.1 2117 10 20 1999 . ( , ). , 15%, , . , , . , .


13.1. , 19891999 . ( 211 7 )

13.

331

HEINEKEN:
Heineken . Heineken . 13.2 13.3 Heineken . Heineken 33 . , , , , , , , WACC*. , , , ( ). * ( ) : (1 + WACC)1/2 ( Heineken, , 1.0671/2 = = 1,033). , .

13.2. Heineken: ( ; , , )
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ( ) 1) . FCF1) 446 754 800 526 910 1 079 1 134 1 190 1 247 1 307 1 359 1 413 1 470 1 528 1 590 59 629 0,937 0,878 0,822 0,770 0,722 0,676 0,633 0,593 0,556 0,521 0,488 0,457 0,428 0,401 0,376 0,376 FCF 418 662 658 405 657 730 718 706 694 681 663 646 629 61 ! 598 22 416 31 893 1,033 32 950

3 3 2 . : 13.3. Heineken: ( ; , , )

" .

, 1 1999 .; , . Heineken, 13.4, 33,5 , 107 . Heineken, ( , ), , , . Heineken ( ), , .

13.

333

13.4. Heineken: ( ; , , )

Heineken ( . 11). 1 3.5. . -, , Heineken , (-12%) . -, : 1% ( 3%). Heineken 87,6 18% , . , 15- . . / , . , , Heineken 7%. 13.5. Heineken:

3 3 4 . : 147,4 38% , . , , , , Heineken, . , , , , . , 114 , Heineken 1998 . , Heineken . , , . , . , , . 13.6. , Heineken, . WACC : , . . , Heineken, . Heineken , ( , ). , Heineken - , . 13.6. Heineken:

14 337 15 354 16 366 17 376 18 395 19 417 20 442 21 476 2 2 501

14

, -, . , . -. , , -. , , -, , . - , . , , -, , . , ( ), 337

3 3 8 . . : - ? . , , . , , 15% ( 3500 1986 1991 .) 1 . 1996 . , , , 2.

. : - , ; - ; , , . - . - . , , : - ; ; , -; -; ; .
1

P. Berger and E. Ofek. Diversification's Effect on Firm Value // Journal of Financial Economics. Vol. 37. 1995. P. 3965. [ , . . .] P. Berger and E. Ofek. Bustup Takeovers of Value-Destroying Diversified Firms // Journal of Finance. Vol. 51. 4.1996. P. 1175-1200.

14.

339

- - . : - . , , , , : , , . -, , . - . 14.1 , : , . . , . -? ? 14.1, -. . , , , . - , : , ( ). : , , -

14.1. -

12-1719

340

( ) -. - . , , - 1 . - . , - . - 1 - 2 ( ). - 2, . - : . , - . , . -. , , . , . . ( , ) , , . , () , ( ) - ( ). 17, . . : - , ? , , , , . , , - , , , -

14.

341

, , . . , ; . . , . : , -, , . , - , . . , , , - . , , - , , . , -, : , , ; ; ( ) ; (, , , , ); ; . . , , . -,

3 4 2 .

, . , -. : -, . , , 1986 . 25 Fortune 500 (. . 14.1). , - 3. 1,6% 1986 . ( : 0,5% , .) 1986 . 0,9%. , , 2,5% , . , 14.1, : 10% . , . : , , , . , ( ), .
3

, -, , . , , ( ) - -. , . , , . , , , ; , 7%, 10%, 46%.

14. 14.1. 21 25 , 1986 .

343

- . -, , , , . , , - . , - , , , , - . . , -

3 4 4 .

(, ), -, . , - . - , , . ( , -, . , .) , , . , , . , , . -. , , , -, , . , , , , , . . , . (Kenneth Arrow), , , , . , , , . - , -, , , . , , -

14.

345

- , . , - . - , , , . , . , , -, , . -, . ( ) , . , , . - - , . , , -, , , . - . , / 80%, 25%. - . / . - . , -, , -

3 4 6 .

, . , - . . -, , . . : ; ; . . , . (., ., . 14.2). . , . ( ), , . . . ,

14.2. , 1998 .
/ : BARRA. 9 12 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 0,52 1,03 0,87 0,83 0,53 0,55 0,62 0,43 0,65 0,58 0,27 1,75 1,51 1,28 1,25 1,33 1,24 1,07 1,09 1,07 0,81 0,60 1,40 1,21 1,06 0,95 0,93 0,90 0,83 0,81 0,76 0,67 0,39

14.

347

. . , ( ) , , , . , , , . (. . , ), . , , ( ). , , , . , 1,2, / 1,3. / 0,8. , . (, , , , . , . , , . . .)

(L ; ; B/S / , ; (U ( ).

, , . , 25%, 34%. ( ):

348

, , , : P t = [1 + (1 - 0,34) 0,8] 0,61 = 0,93. . , - , , , . , , ( ) -. , . . , , , , . , , , : Pm = WA1pUA + WB1|}ra;


Pt/2 = WA2PuA + WE2$m.

, UA U. , , , - , ( ) , . -. 14.3 , :
= 1,08; = 0,88.

, -. , , ( ) -, . ,

14. 14.3.
1,23 0,88 1,21 1,32 1,18 1,16 1,16 0,86 0,59 1,10 0,98 1,06 1,01 0,99 /. 1) ( %) 70,4 82,5 16,9 57,9 18,9 24,6 28,4 0,15 0,06 0,04 0,79 0,51 0,26 0,19

349

0,85 0,94 0,96 0,21 0,49 0,74 0,81

Champion International Chesapeake Corporation Great Northern Nekoosa Louisiana-Pacific Pope and Talbot Longview Fibre Temple Inland
1)

10, , ks. , , . . , : ( ), , . , : . , () . , N , N, , . - (WACC), -:


WACC=kb(l-T)^J+k^.

, kb, , -. , , - . () , /( + S), , . , ks, ( ), 1 .

350

, , , : , ; ; . ( ) , , , , , kb. ( , ) , , , . ( , ), . , . , , . , . , , . , , , . - ( ). ( ) . , . , , (, ), .

14.

351

, - . 14.2 , (-), , . . . . , ? ? ? . , , -, , ? , , , , , . , , , .

14.2.

3 5 2 .

, . , - . , - , . . , , . - , , , . , . , , , , . . , , . -, , , . , 11, -. , . -. . -, ( . 2). . : , . -

14.

353

, . - , , , 4. .

( ) .: P. Anslinger, S. Klepper, and S. Subramaniam. Breaking Up Is Good to Do // McKinsey Quarterly. 1.1999. P. 16-27.

15

2000 . , , - , , , , . , , , ; . , , , , . -. - , : , , , . , , . - . 354

15. 3 5 5

, , , - , , , , . , . : , . - 100%. , 15% . , , , , , . - , , . , ( , ) -, , 35 . ( ). , ; ( ), , , . , ( ) 40 . , 1 3 6 , 40 . 120 . . ( ), . . . -

356

, , ! , , . : ( , ) , / , . 35 . , , 510 . , . -. - , , ( ) , . , /, , (-), , . , , , . - , . : (1) ; (2) , ; (3) .

15.

357

- Amazon.com ( 1999 .). , 1999 ., 10 , -, , , , . , Amazon.com (, pets.com drugstore.com), 1999 . - . ; 1999 ., Amazon.com 101 . : 25 . 1999 . Amazon.com , 1999 . 390 . , -. , Amazon.com, . , , , , , , . , , , . , , , . - , , , 1015 . , Amazon.com . -, . , 1998 . , CDNow

3 5 8 .

; 1999 . 45 ; 10 . , , . , Amazon.com Wal-Mart , . , 2010 . Amazon.com , ( ). 13% , 12% , 2010 . 60 ., Wal-Mart, , 300 . Amazon.com 60 ? , , . , Amazon.com ( ) , . Amazon.com 11%, , , . ? , , , . , , . , ( , ) 2010 . Amazon.com 3,4 2,5 . 2010 .: 60 .; 7 .; 18 . , , 15 2010 . Amazon.com 12% 2025 . 5,5%, 1. Amazon.com, , . , 2025 ., 37 .
1

40 3% , , , 22,5%.

15.

359

- 10 , Amazon.com? . , , , . , , . , , , -. , , ( , ). Amazon.com (. . 15.1).

15.1. : Amazon.com ( , , .!

1) , , , . 2) , (. . EBITA).

3 6 0 .

A Amazon.com , - (. . , ). , , . ( , ), . , Amazon.com, 1999 ., 79 . Amazon.com , , ( ). , Amazon.com 1999 . 37 . Amazon.com , , , . Amazon.com 15 . , Amazon.com . , , , , . Amazon.com 3 . , , 3 79 . , 2. () Amazon.com (. . 15.2). 5%. , , , . Amazon.com . , , .
2

, , , ( ); , , .

15. 15.1. : Amazon.com ( , , .)

361

, 23 ., , , 31 1999 . , Amazon.com . , , , . 15.2, . , Amazon.com, , . , , . . -, , , ? ,


15.2. : Amazon.com ( , , %)

362

, . Amazon.com - , : 1) , , , , ; 2) ; 3) ( ); 4) ; 5) (. . , ). , Amazon.com , , . 15.2, 10 Amazon.com . 9 1999 . 120 2010 . ( 84 36 ). , Amazon.com . , 140 . 1999 . 500 . 2010 . 500 . - 15 ., 20 ., 30 . 350 . Amazon.com, , . , . ( ) 2010 . Amazon.com 14%,

15.2. : Amazon.com ( )
( .) ( ) ( %) ( .) ( %) 1999 140 9 14 29 25 2010 500 120 14 50 25

15.

363

, Wal-Mart. , Amazon.com , -. Amazon.com 2010 . 50 . . , , , , . , 25% , Amazon.com , . , , ( ) ( ) . , . Postoyanstvo.com Tekuchka.com (. . 15.3). 1999 . 100 . 3 . . . . Postoyanstvo.com 50 ., Tekuchka.com -1 . (20% Postoyanstvo.com 46% Tekuchka.com), Tekuchka.com. stoyanstvo.com , .

15.3. :
Postoyanstvo.com ( .) ( %) ( .) ( %) 1) , 2 12%. 250 15 75 20 Tekuchka.com" 342 15 93 46

3 6 4 .

15.3.

10 (. . 15.3). , , . , , , . , , , . , , Amazon.com 1999 . 10 . 23% , , 1999 . Amazon.com. 7% , 1999 . , 1999 . ; . : Microsoft. -

15.

365

, , , . , , , 3. , , ... -. , , , , , , . , , , . , , , , ; ; , . , , , , , .

Morgan Stanley 1243 , 86% , , 5% .

16

. , , , .

( ). (, , , , , -, ) . ,
Underestimating Change (Rotterdam: Erasmus University, August 1999), (Marco de Heer) .

366

16.

367

. - . , , . ? , . . , . , ? , , . . . , . , , . . 10 . 1 16.1 . : , . 10% ( ), 2 16.1. 3 16.1, ( ), , , , . . , - . , . 16.2 () 15 . , , .

368

.
16.1. :

16.2. : 15

16.

369

? ? , , - , . , , . , . , . , , , ( , ). 36 19851997 . (, , ), . 1. 16.3 ( ) 15 , . , . , (min), - . , 2. , , , , , . , ( ), , 1

, , , , . .: V. . Chopra. Why So Much Error in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts?// Financial Analysts Journal. 1998. November/December. P. 3542. - .

3 7 0 .

16.3.

3. , . , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , ( ).
3

: . R. dayman and R. A. Schwartz. Falling in Love Again Analysts' Estimates and Reality // Financial Analysts Journal. 1994. September/October. P. 6668; J. Francis and D. Phdbrick. Analysts' Decisions as Products of a Multi-Task Environment //Journal of Accounting Research. Vol. 31. 2.1993 Autumn. P. 216230; K. Schipper. Commentary on Analysts' Forecasts //Accounting Horizons. 1991. December. P. 105121; B. Trueman. On the Incentives for Security Analysts to Revise Their Earnings Forecasts // Contemporary Accounting Research. Vol. 7. 1. P. 203222.

16.

371

16.4.

, . , , . , . ? , . (. . 16.4). , , . , . , - . , . , 50% . , 50%, , , . . , . : 1) ;

3 7 2 .

16.5.

2) , ( , ); 3) (50%) . 16.5 . , ( ), , 50 50. , , . , , 50 50.

, ( ) . , , -,

16.

373

. , , . (, ). 1. , . , , . , (. . , . ). 2. , . . (, , ). 3. , , , , . 4. . , . , . , , . - , ? , . , , , , , . ,

374

16.6. ( %)

. , , , . , , , , , . , . , ( ). . , . ? . , , . : . 16.6 . . ? . , , , , , , . . , , , .

16.

375

, , . , , . . , , .

17

, - , . : ; ; ; ; ; .

. . 19. 17.1 , 376

17.

377

17.1. :

, , ( ), , ( ), (, , ). . , . , , . , , . 17.1 . . . , . . , , ( 1 ) .
1

, . ( ).

378

. 17.1. ,

1.

2. 3.

1: , , . , 9. , , : , . , , . , , . , ; . , , , , . , ,

17.

379

52 (FASB Statement 52). . , , , . . , , , . (. . ) . . . , , . , , . . . , , , . , , , . 17.2 . , , 0,95 . 0,85 ., , , 0,90 . - 0,91 . , . ; ; ; . (85 .). ,

3 8 0 .
17.2. :

1)

, .

: Peat, Marwick, Mitchell and Company. Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 5 2 , Foreign Currency Translation. 1981. P. 52.

( ) . , ( ) (70 .). . , , ( ) . : , , , .

17.

381

17.3. ( , , .)

1) , . 2) , (500 . 34% = 170 . .

, . , , . 17.3 , . 34% , 20% 60% . 34% ,

3 8 2 .

34% , . , ( . 17.3), , , , . (. . . 17.3), ; , . , , , , . 17.3 20% (30 + 80)/400 = 27,5%. 34% . , , . 17.3 , , , , . , , , . . , . , . , . , : ; ; ; , , ; ; ; ; ; -

17.

383

; , . , , . , , . , , , , 2. . 17.3. , , . , , . . , 200 . , , . : 560 510 ., 30 . , , . , 200 . , , . , - . , , 3200 . ( , . 17.4):


($400 - $80)/10% = 3200 .

, E , 1600 .:
($200 - $40)/10% = 1600 .
2

, 1986 . (Tax Reform Act of 1986), 10 (, , , , ). , , , , , .

384

. 17.4. - 1 ' ( .)

, , , . 17.4 : 1500 . 510 . 10% 9900 . 1600 . ( ), ( ) 8600 . , 2 17.3 . . ( . 17.4) 10 200 . (3200 . 7000 . ), 9900 . 2: , . ( ) . , , , . . : , , . -

17.

385

, -. ( ) , , , (. . ). . . 18 . , , . -. , , . - ( , ), . . : ; -, . , 17.5. , . 17.2 17.5.

3 8 6 .

17.2.

47 19771981 . . : t (Xf t ) (0), (t)3:

f , d .

, , . , (Nf) 4%, 7,1%. , (0) 2,673 . . 1 . ., (Xf) 2,5944 . . 1 . . , , 4%:

.: .. Copeland and J. Fred Weston. Financial Theory and Corporate Policy. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1988. P. 790-803.

17. 17.6. fyl~ : 1 2 3 4 5

387

, 7,1% 4%, 7,15% . , , ( ). , , , ( . 17.5) . 17.6 . 1 2 . 3 . , , , - (/), . 5, . , 6, ( 7) . , , . 3: , , , , . , , (WACC). , WACC, (ad hoc) -

3 8 8 .

WACC . , ad hoc , . 19, , . , , ; : . , : , , , . , , . , , . , . , . 4: , , 2, . 17.7 . WACC , 11,8%, , , - *.


* : ...... - , - . , 1 . . (. . 1 . .), , 1 . 17.7 0,63 . , , 0,63, (1 0,63). , .

17. 17.7.

389

:
11,8% 0,8945 0,8000 0,7156 0,6401 0,5725 0,5121 0,4580 0,4097 0,3665 0,3278 0,3278 ( . .) 89,45 92,01 93,03 90,89 91,60 92,18 89,78 92,18 92,35 91,78 869,61 1784,86 +0,63 2833,1

( . .) 100 115 130 142 160 180 196 225 252 280 2653

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

. . - /$ .

: , ( ) , , , . ( , ), , ( ). , , . , , . , , . , Volkswagen 200 ., a Spectra Physics . , , , , ,

3 9 0 .

. . , : ; ; , ; ; . 1990- , . ( ), ( ). , . , . , , . , , , , . 17.3 530 , () 4. 35% , 47% . 17.4. , . , ( ). , , , . . (), ( ). . (/), :


= (P1- 0) - h(F1- F0).
4

Bodnar, Hayt, Marston, and Smithson. Wharton Survey of Derivatives Usage by U.S. Nonfinancial Firms // Financial Management. 1995. Summer. P. 104114.

17. 17.3. ( %)

391

17.4. ( , , %)

12 . 12 . : Bodnar, Hayt, Marston, and Smithson. Wharton Survey of Derivatives Usage by U.S. Nonfinancial Firms.
2)

1)

3 9 2 .

P1 - 0 ; F1 - F0 ; h ; VAR(P) ; VAR(F) ; r2 .

(h) , :

, () . , , () :

, r2 60%, 37%. r2, 90%, 68%. , . , - . , . , , 17.5, , ( ), 0

17.

393

17.5.

, . , /0, , ( / ), . . . , , , . , . , . . . 5, . , (. . ). . , : , , ,
5

.: . CopeJand and M. Copeland. Managing Corporate FX Risk: A Value-Maximizing Approach // Financial Management. Vol. 28. 3.1999. Autumn. P. 6875.

3 9 4 .

(, 50 ) . , , ; , ; ( ); ; . , , . . . (h*), , (), ():

, , , , . : . , . , , , () . ( ) , . ( ) , . , , , -. : ( ) ; ; ; .

18

, , , ? ! , , , , . , , , , . 5, . . 18.1 , ROIC . , ROIC, / . , , / , ROIC WACC. . : , . , 395

3 9 6 .

18.1. , ROIC

, . 19. , , , - , , , . , , ( IAS)1. , , , . , 9, , . , ROIC. 9 , , , .


1

2000 . , , , a IAS. , 510 IAS de facto ( ).

18.

397

18.1. : Hoechst AG, 1996 . ( , ROIC, )


EBIT EBIT NOPLAT , , ROIC, ( %) ROIC, ( %) 4013 2 114 55 125 14 508 4 520 2 378 37 143 46 178 6,4 5,1 GAAP 3 119 1 090 55 827 15 091 GAAP 4 411 2 039 37 669 46 880 5,4 4,3 -894 -1 024 702 583 -109 -339 526 702 1,0 0,8

Hoechst, , 1996 ., - , , , ( GAAP). , Hoechst 1996 . 2,1 . GAAP 1,1 , 1,0 (. . 18.1). , NOPLAT, ROIC, , . NOPLAT 2,3 , 2,0 . , NOPLAT 100 13%. , , , , , , . , . ( ).

3 9 8 .

. - , . , , , , , . , . GAAP . 18.2 , . , NOPLAT, , 9. 18.3, . , , , , . , ( ) 2. , , . , , , , . , . , 9. 3 .


2

, . , , . 1998 ., , 1994 .

18. 18.2.
! , ? ; ; , . ; ; /- , , , , ; ; ; , , , , IAS , ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ( ; ; , ?

399

, ,

) , , , ,

: McKinsey; 1998 .

18.3.
?


, ? ( 1987 .). 1987 . ?

, - ?

IAS

( 1990 .) : , :

; , , , /

( )

400

: McKinsey; 1998 .

18.

401

. 18.4 . ROIC , . , ROIC . ROIC , . , , , ? ROIC : NOPLAT . , . , , ,


18.4.
? , ? ( )

10-12 , 20

15 ( ) 25% ( )

1994 . ; 1994 .

5 10 5
5,

( )

( )

5
5 ( 20) 40

20

, 5 10-20 5 ( 20) , 20

IAS

: McKinsey; 1998 .

402

. , . , , ROIC . , , . , . . , . , , , . , - . , ; , (. . 18.5). , ROIC . ROIC , , . A ROIC , ( , ). , NOPLAT . , , . , . . . , ,

18.5.
? . ( ) ( 1983 .) ( 1983,1990 1991 .) , ( ) , , 1984 ., , , , ( 1998 2001 .)


? : , 1991 . 16% ?

? ,

( ) (60% )

IAS

: McKinsey; 1998 .

4 0 4 .

. . . NOPLAT, ROIC . NOPLAT , ( ) , , EBIT ( ). (. . 9). 18.6, , 50% . , , . , . ( ) , . , , , (, ). . , , , . , ( - ), (, ). . , , . , .

18. 18.6.
? 50% (> 20%) , 50% 50% 50%

405

, (> 10%) , , ,

50%

, , (> 10%) , . ( )

50% ( 1994 .

, ) , : , ,

50%

50%

(> 20%) , ,

50%

50% 50% 40% , ,

, (> 20%) ,

50%

(> 20%) , ,

50%

, ,

50%

(> 20%) , (> 20%) ,

IAS

50%

: McKinsey; 1998 .

406

. , , , . , . . . 18.2 , . . . ( ). - , . . , , . , , : . , , , , .
18.2. , 1992 . ( )

18.

407

. 12% 53% . . , , . , : . , . , , , . , , . , , . , , . 18.7 . , 18.8. . -, ( ) , , , , . -, : , , , . . , .

408

. 18.7. ( , , )

" , .

, , . , , , , . , - , . . . , . (tc) (ti) , :

( . 18.7). NOPLAT. EBIT . , NOPLAT , . (. . 18.9.)

18. 4 0 9 18.8.
" 2'


, ?

? ( ) ( )

3/7 ( 30%). : 45%, 30%

: - 40% ; - 27% ( 50% 35%) 56,25% ( 37%)

( ) - 7/l8 ( 28%). , , : 33,75% ( 60% 36%) 7 / 18 ( 28%) 50% ( 33%, 10% )


1) 2)

( ) ( )

1999 . . 2000 . , .

: European Tax Handbook, 1997; Financial Times.

410

18.9. NOPLAT ( , , )

. NOPLAT, . . , , , , . . WACC . , , . 18.10. . , , .


18.10. ( )

18.

411

, 10. , . , . . . : . , , . , , () , (4,5-5%). , , . 1990- 25% , ( ) . . ( ), , , . . . , , , Procter & Gamble Unilever. . , . , Procter & Gamble , a Unilever . , . () ? 18.3 ( ) . ( ). .

4 1 2 .

18.3. ( %)

, . , . , . , 100 4. 18.4 , (Herfindahl index), . , , . , . 18.5, 50% . ( ) Nokia, 1999 . . , 4

R. Roll. Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices//Journal of Finance. 1992. March.

18. 18.4.

413

: R. Roll. Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices.

18.5. , ( %)

: R. Roll. Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices.

4 1 4 . 18.11. ( %)

. . 4,55% ( . 10). , , , . BZW, , , . , . , . . , . : . , , . , , (. . 18.11), , (. . 18.12)5. 18.6. , , , , , , 1.


, . . 10.

18.

415

18.12. , 1998 . ( .)

: .

( ) , , , . ( ) , . . 1,0. , , 1,3. . , 6%, 5%. : 6% + 5% 1,3 = 12,5%. . 12,5%, 18.6. , 6,5% ( , 1,0, ): 6% + 6,5% 1,0 = 12,5%. , , , , . , . . , , . , ( , ).

4 1 6 .

18.6.

, . , . , . . , ( ), -. , XX . .

19

, , , , /, , . , , , . , , , . , , . , ( , )

, . 417

4 1 8 .

19.1. ,

. , , , 19.1. , , . : , , 1 . , , , . 1. . 2. . 3. . 4. .
1

, , , , . ( , ), .

19. 4 1 9

. , , , . . , . - ( ) . ( ) . (, , , 1999 .) . . , , , . . ( , , , .) , . , ( ) 19.1. , ( ) . , ( ROIC ) . , ; . 19.2 , , . -

4 2 0 .
19.1.
, , / > 0 CV

+ " +

+ +

, 20%. , , (EBITDA) , . , EBITDA, EBITDA . , . , . , . , 19.2. , . , , ( / ROIC) , , . /: , . .

421

4 2 2 . . 1. ( ), . 2. . : , , , , . 3. . . , ; . 4. ( ). 5. . ( .) 6. . , / . . 7. . , , , , . . , , / / ( , ). , , , . , 9. .

19.

423

, , (CV). , 12. , . :

NOPLAT, , , , NOPLAT NOPLAT2. NOPLAT , . NOPLAT . NOPLAT , , . , . , . . , :


(1 + WACC) = (1 + WACC) x (1 + ).

, WACC . 19.3 , ( . 19.2). , . - , , .


2

NOPLAT NOPLAT, .

4 2 4 .
19.3.

, . . , . , . , , . , , , , , . . , , , ( ), (, , ). , . ; , , . , . , (. . ), , .

19.

425

. , ( 25% ), 3. , , , , . , . , . , ; . . . . , . 1996 . 30,5%. 1997 . , , 33%. , , , 15%. , , , . . , , , . . , ( , ) . (. . , ),


3

, .

4 2 6 .

. , . -, . , . -, 2025% ( , ). , 1960 1998 . , 100 . , . , 19.2. , 100 . , , 1998 . 100 .

19.2. ,

19.

427

, , ( ) , , . () . , , , . , ( , , ROIC). , , , . , , ( ), , , . , , , , , , , , , . : , () (). , , . . -, , , , (, , , 1998 .). ,

4 2 8 .

. . , , 4. (, , .) -, . , , ; ( ) , ( ) . . -, , , (. . , ). , . (ad hoc) , . : , ( ). , . , YPF ( ), . , , (. . , ), . , , , , . , , . ? 4

.: . Keck, E. Levengood, and A. Longfteld. Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis in an International Setting: A Survey of Issues in Modeling the Cost of Capital // Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Vol. 11. 3. Fall 1998.

19.

429

. 10 , , (10 1999 .). ( NOPLAT/WACC), 10. , , , . ( , .) (. . 19.3). , , , - . ,

19.3.

4 3 0 .

49%. , 5090% . , , , . , . , , , , , . . , . , . , . , . . , , . , . ( ). , , . (Merrill Lynch) Pao de Acucar. 1998 . (. . 19.4). , , . .

19. 19.4. : Pao de A?ucar

431

, , . (, , ) 30% 5%. , , . , , Pao de Acucar . . 19.5 ,


19.5. : ( , , )

4 3 2 .

. 3350%. , , . -23 +35% ; . 12071288 . 1171 . ( ) 1998 . 7,8%, 260 , . ( ) 2%, , 1044 . , , . , , , , . -, . , . . , . , . . , , , . ,

19.

433

. , , , , . , , , . . , . , , , , ( ). , , , , . , . , . , . , , . : . . ( ), . : ( , ), , . , . , . .

434

, (. . ). , , 10. . , . . : . . , , , , , . : 19.4 , ( , ). , . , , . .

19.4.

19. 4 3 5 . , . . , AAA . . . . , , ; , . . , . . 10 . ( ) 5. , , ( Brady), . , , . , 10- . . . , . , , -. . , . , 5

. , -. ( - .)

15-1719

4 3 6 .

. ( ), ( ). . , . , . 10- , , . , , , , , . , , . , , , . , , , . . , , ; . . , . - , . , , 10- . , , . , , . : ( ). , . ? , , , . -

19.

437

19.5. : ( %)

, , . . , 10- 10- . , . 19.5 , . , . . : ? , , ? , . . , , , . , , . . , , ,

4 3 8 . 19.6. : Pao de Acucar


( BARRA) Pao de Acucar 1,01 0,66 (/. ) ( %) ( ) 1,01 0,85

65 19

. , . , . , Pao de Ac-ucar , 19.6: B R A (1,0) AR (0,85). . . . - . . 10, 4,55%. 19.6 Pao de Acucar. , , . . . , , . , .

19.

439

19.6. : Pao de Acucar ( %)

, , . , , . , Coca-Cola Colgate Palmolive, , , , . , . , +, , . , , . Pao de Acucar:


10- 10 10- 10- + Pao de Acucar 5,2% 4.4% 9,6% 3.6% 13,2%

, . -

440

( ) , . , , , . , . , (, , , , . .). . , . . . . , , , . , . Pao de Acucar 19.7 ( - ). , , Pao de Acucar 1423%, , . , , , , .


19.7. : Pao de Acucar ( %)

19.

441

1) 2)

0,91,6 . 1,5 , 5,1% 30% (10 ).

19.7. : Pao de Acucar, 1998 . ( )

, . , , , . , : . Pao de cuar 19.7. 0,91,6 , 1,01,3 .

20

. . , . , . , , , . . , , , . , , (, 10 ) 442

20. 4 4 3

, . ( ). , , . , , . , 10 , . , . , . . , , , . ( ) , , , . . . , . , . , , . , , , , , , , , . , , , , , , , . , 30 40% , . , , 100 . . . . , . . , , , .

4 4 4 .

1 . , , , . 100 , - , , 43 , . , . ( ), , , . 2. , , 1600 . - (). 200 ., 300 100 ., . : 200 ., (300 100 .). 10%. , , (NPV) :

, . ( , ). NPV
1

, . . A. Dixit and R. Pindyck. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994.

20.

445

( ) . , , , . , , , ( ). , , :

, , , . 100 ., , 300 ., . NPV 600 ., , , NPV 733 . , . ( 1600 .; ; , 200 .; 600 . ) , , : 733 . - 600 . = 133 . , NPV , ; , () , :

4 4 6 .

. , . , , NPV . , NPV. . , NPV , - , , , NPV . , NPV , (. . 20.1). , 100%. NPV . , , , NPV. , , 300100 . 4000 . , NPV , ; , , , , , -

20.1.

20.

447

. , , :

673 ., . ( ). , : ( ) , , , , . , . , , , . , , 20.2. : (

20.2.

4 4 8 .

), , (, IBM). , . . 1970- , 9% . 4%, , - 9%. , . ? (. . , ) ( ) . . 1981 1992 ., , 9% , . , , 9%. . , , .

, , , ( ) . / . ( ) , 3. , .
3

. .

20. 4 4 9

( ), () . , . , , , , . . . , , . , . , , , . . . , (. . ), . . . , , , , . ( !) (, ). . , . . . . : . , .

4 5 0 .

, , , . . . - . : . . . (/ ) , , , , . , , ( ) . ( ) ( ). , ( . .), , . , , , , , , , . . . . , , . , ( ). , , . , , , . . . , : . , , -

20. 4 5 1

, . , , , . , , , . / . : , . , , . , , , , , , , . , , , . . , 115 . , (50 50) ( ) 170 65 . (rf) 8%. , , , 34 13 . 20 . , - . -. -, . (k) , (PV) \E(FCF)) -:

- , ,

452

17,5%. , :

, , . , - . 170 .:

65 .:

, . : N = 5, = 0. - 20 . :

, , (100 .) ( 115 . , 8%, -106,48 .):

, , , . , , , , . , (. . 20.3), 170 . - 115 . = 55 ., . , .

20.

453

21

" 65 . () 115 . NPV. (0,5 55 . + 0,5 0)/1,175 = 23,4 .; WACC, 1.

20.3. : ( .)

, :
E(FCF, ) ( ) = = _ 0,5($55) + 0,5($0)

, , : 23,4 . - (-6,5 .) = 29,9 . , , , , , , , , . (ad hoc) , . . ( ) [- () . 34 . , , ., rjB. 55 . . :


N($34)+5(1 + ^) =55 .; N($13) + (1 + //) = 0 .

454

: N = 2,62, = -31,53 . , , :

, , : 20,86 . - (-6,48 .) = 27,4 . , . 31,9% ( 17,5%):

, . 100 . (50 50) 170 ., 70%, 65 ., 35%. 20,86 ., 55 ., 164%, , 100%. , 31,9%. 20.4. NPV , . , , , ,

20.4.

( .)

20.

455

, , . , . -? ( ) NPV ( ) , , . , , ? , ( ) , . ( ) -. . - , ( 8%):

, :

, ( ) 100 ., , , :

, -: . . Excel Lotus, , (,

456

). , , . , , . ; , . , 100 ., 15% 12% . 8%, , ( , ), 105 . ( ), . ( /), , , . , , . ( /, , .) 20.5 , , . 4 / :


= = *\ = e 0 - l W I = 1.1618. = d = = = 0,8607. 1,1618
4

.: J. Cox, M. Rubinstein, andS. Ross. Option Pricing: a Simplified Approach //Journal of Financial Economics. 1979. September. P. 229-263. * : e = 2,718; ( ); ( ). , .

20.

457

20.5. ( ) ( , , .)

, : 86,12%, 13,88%5. NPV , 12%. (t = 5). :

, , . , , , 105 ., 100 .
5

(. 4):

458

. ( , , , ), . q, 1-q, :
q(uPV) + (l-q)(dPV)

( ), :

( ) , . , , :

, . , . , , , , . , 20%, 15 ., , . 20.6. , . . 211,70 ., 1,2 211,70 . - 15 . = 239,04 .

20. 4 5 9

20.6.

( .)

, . 1,2 156,83 . - 15 . = 173,20 . ( 156,83 . ), , . 20.7 . 25 . ( ), , . , , ,

20.7. ( .)

4 6 0 .

. ( ) PV+ = 116 ., PV- = 86 . : PV= 100 . , 75% 86 . 25 ., 90 ., 86 . , N ( ) , :


N($116) + =116.; N($86) + = 90 .

, : N = 0,8667, = 15,46 . :
N(PV) + /(1 + r) = 0,8667($100) + $15,46/1,08 = 101 .

0,8667 , , 100 ., 15,46 . 1 . , 101 ., 20.7. , , 102 . -5 . +2 . , 7 . 20.8 . 100 . , ; , ( ) 106,32 . ( 105 . ). , . , 20.9 . , 113,49 . ( 100 ., ), , . , (13,49 .) . , . , 20.1 (. . 462). -

20. 20.8. ( .)

461

20.9. , ( .)

4 6 2 . 20.1. :
1. 2. PV ( ) PV ( = 0 , PV ( ) - , . . 1 3. 4. , , , , , ( )

PV ()

( ) . , : , 6 . () 7 , . , , .
6

. . . . . , , , , . .

20.

463

: , , (), . , ( ) 6%, , , 35%. , , , . . , , ( , ). () -, , , . , . , . , (), -. . . . , , . , , . , ( ) , . , , 1, . .

464

. :
, Excel ( ) ( )

20.2.

, . . , . , , . , , , (, , , , , , ). , . 20.2 . ( ) ( ) , . , 1 / . . , , . ,

20.

465

20.10.

: ( .)

( ). () , , 45% (. . 20.10). , , NPV 71% . , 116% . , 515% 1,75 2,25 . . . , . , , . : , , , . . , , , .

466

20.11.

( ) , 650 . . NPV -71,2 . : (), , , . () , , . , , , , , (. . 20.11). , , , , . . NPV -71,2 . ( ) 354,5 . ( ). . ( ) .

20.

467

. , , NPV, . ( ) , . 20.12
20.12.

4 6 8 .

, . , , , . , , 60% 40% . : , . , , , , . , , , . . , , . , . , . 20.12 . . , . , , , . , 3 ? . -, , , . -, : , , . : , , 3, 11. 125% , , . , , , . , . . -,

20. 4 6 9

. -, , . , , , . , . , , WACC. . , . 100 , - , 43, . , , . . , , , . . , 2,75%- ABB, 20.3, 112,41 . . , 112,43 . . , ( ) . ABB, 0,8896 100 . , .

4 7 0 .
20.3. ABB 2,75% 2004 . ( 1988 .)

, . , , , , : 8% ; 400 . . ( ); 62% 35% 38% 26% (. . 20.13); : 150 100 , 1/2 ; 50/(150 + 50) = 25% ; , ; 1000 . 100 . ; 1400 . ( , ); ; . , (. . 20.13). , , ,

20.

471

20.13. : , ( . .)

705 349 ., 382 592 . ( , . . ). 705 349 ., 186 337 . 110 000 . . , . 382 592 ., , 1000 . , 110 000 ., 105 684 . (. . 25% 382 592 . 10 000 .). (. . 20.14).

20.14. ( . .)

1) , 142,5 . ., 140 . . 2) , (101,9 . .) (140 . .). 3) .

4 7 2 .

, 539 900 . ( 529 900 . ), ( 4, ) . , ( . .):

= 0,946, = 15,87, :

10 000 . (. . 151,25 . .). , (140 000 .), . , , 25% 529 900 . 10 000 . , 142 500 . , 142 500 . , . , , (101 900 .) . , 115 261 ., 1152,61 . . 20.15 . , 8%. , , , . . (400 000 .)

20.

473

20.15. ( . .)

(115 261 .), 284 739 . , (100 000 .), 5,4%. - (Eugene Brigham) 22 , . 68% , , , , . 27% , () , , . . . , ( ) , , . . 28 . 25 . , , , , .

474 . ( ) , , , . , (1152,61 .), 2,13%:


0 = $1152,61 = $100/(1 + ) + $1100/(1 + ) ; = 2,13%.
2

, 8%. 20.15, 14,74% . . 1. . . , . , , , . 2. . ( ) , , , , ( ) , , ( ) . 3. . , , , , , , . 20.4 . McKinsey . , , , .

20. 20.4. , 2000 .

475

1) 100 . . : Remco Bos, Fortis Investment Bank.

, . :

, , , ( ) . ; . , , , , ( ). , , ( ), ( ). , , . . , . . , .

21

- , , , , . . . 1988 ., Bank of New York Irving Trust. 1991 . Chemical Bank Manufacturers Hanover . 1996 . Chemical Bank Chase Manhattan. 1999 . Citicorp Travelers CitiGroup. 2000 . (GlassSteagall Act), - . , . . 476

21.

477


. , , (. . , ), , -' (-) , . . -, 21.1 ( ): , 20 ; , 20 ; , , - . , , , . , , , , . , , . , , .

21.1. -

4 7 8 .

, ; . -, , ( ), (. . 8). -, , . . ( ) . ( , , , .) ( ) , , , . , , , , . , , , . . , , , . - , , , ( ) , ( , ). : , , , .

21.

479

. , , . ( , ) , , , . , , . , : , ( ). (. . ) , ( ).

, ( ). , , . , . 21.1 , . . , , , . , , , . , , , , . , . , , ( ), .

4 8 0 .
21.1.

" .

, , . , . ( ), ; , . , , , . , . , , , , . , , , ( ), , .

2 1 . 4 8 1 21.2. : ABC ( .)

, 21.2, ( ). : 12%, , 5%, 40%. , , , 8 . , . , , , , , . , 8%. , . , , 100% . , . 21.3 .

21.3. : ABC ( .)

482

, , . , , : , . , , , , , , , , , . , 21.2. , , , . , , , ,

21.2.

21.

483

, . , 1. , 1 . 900 . . , . :
1 2 3 ( %) 8,0 9,0 9,5 ( %) 8,0 10,0 10,5

21.4 : (1) , 1 .; (2) , 900 . . ; (3) . , . , , 9,5%: 9,5% 1 . 9,5% 950 . ., 4750 . . 0% . , , , , (8%, 10% , , 10,5%), . . , 0%. 21.4, ( , ) ; , . (, ) ( , ), 14 250 . , - 9,5% ( ), 10% 2 10,5% 3. () , - , .
1

484

21.

485

23 . . (. . 23%), . 5% 2 0,5% 3. , 1, , , . , : ; ; ; , , , , . . , .

, , , . , . 50 , . , , , , . , . , , , . . , , .

4 8 6 .

1992 . Value Line, , , , Citicorp. . , ( ) , , , . 21.3, , Citicorp. 12%. 12,8% ( : = 1,29; 5,4%; 10- 5,8%)- . 21.5,21.6 21.7 , , . 21.7, , , . . , , . , , . 21.3. : Citicorp, 1993 . ( .)

487

488

489

4 9 0 .

- . , . . , . , , . , . , , , . , . , 21.7 , , , . ( ) . , . , ( ). , , , . , . - , , . - . , , , .

21.

491

, : , , , . , , 20 , 80 , . , , , . . . , . . , ? , , , *. . -, * ( , ) . , , . , t , V PV(C1), PV(C2), ... PV(Ct) :

, . , , , , :

, , . . .

4 9 2 .
21.8. ( .)

, (. . ), (. . ). , , . -, , : , . , 21.8, . 21.8 , , . , , , , 5. . : 10%, 10%; , . , . 5- , , 3- .

21.

493

, . 10 15%, 795 697 . , , . , 3- , 4 10 15%. , , ( , ). , , , , , , . , , , , . . , , : - ? , , (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; FDIC), . (, ), . , FDIC, , . , , . , Bank of America - , FDIC; Continental Illinois, , . FDIC, , , , , , . , FDIC.

4 9 4 .
21.9.

: Ronn and A. Verma. Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model // Journal of Finance. 1986. September.

, . FDIC . FDIC . ( 100 . .), , . ( FDIC) . FDIC , , , , : ; ; ; .

, . 21.9 1983 . ( ,

21. 21.10. ( .)

495

, 2 , ) . 72,41 , FDIC, First Pennsylvania ( 8,08 ). , , , , , . . 21.10 . , . , , , , . ( , , .) , ( , ). , . , - . . 21.10 , 5% , : , , 19 ., 1,439 .


2

. Ronn and A. Verma. Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model // Journal of Finance. 1986. September. P. 871-895.

4 9 6 .

. , , , . , , , , , , 80% ( , , ). . , , 1% , , , . . , , , , () , , , , . 5% ( ), , , . , . 20 ; , . , , , , , , , . , . , . , , , : , -

21. 21.11.

497

; , , . ; . , , , 21.11. 1000 . 200 . (1000 .) . 20%; , 80% . 5 9- , , 19 26%3. , . , , :

, , 15,8%, 420 . , , , , . , . , ( , , ), 3

P. Asquith, D. Mullins, Jr., and E. Wolff. Original Issue High Yield Bonds: Aging Analysis of Defaults, Exchanges, and Calls //Journal of Finance. Vol. 44. 4.1989. P. 923-952.

498

. , . , . . . , , , , , . , , ( ). . , , , . , , , , , , . ( ); , . , , , . (- ) . , , : , , , . ; , , , , .

21.

499

. , , , , , , ( ). : , . , , , ( ), , . , , , , , . 21.4 , . , , : ; ; ; , , , , . . , , , , . , , . , , . , . . , , , . , , . , , .

171719

500

. , -. , , , - , . . , , , . . , . , , , . - , , , . - , , , . . - , , - . , , . , , , . , , , , , . , , , . , , .

22

, , . , . , .

: , , , ; , (, ) , , () ; ( ), , . : , 501

502

(GAAP) . : , . 22.1 22.2 TransAmerica, GAAP. TransAmerica 1. , , , , . , , . , . ( ) . . . , . , (AAA ), , . ( TransAmerica 1998 . 32,4 .). . ( TransAmerica) ( .):
0 3928 3928 0 1 4104 3209 895 2 4284 2457 1827 3 4469 1672 2797 4 4658 853 3805 5 0 0 0

0 , .
1

TransAmerica 1999 ., Aegon.

503
JLZ.

504

22.

505

. 1 , . , . . , . ( ). 5 , . , . , ( ) . , . , , . , . . TransAmerica 1998 . , 33,7 . ( ). 90% . . -, : , ( , ). -, : , , , . TransAmerica 1998 ., , ( ) 1,8 ., 2,3 . (2,9 .) . ( ) . , , , , . , -

506

, . , , . 21 ( ), . , . , . , ( 1998 . 9,1 .). , . , , . ( ) , . , , . ( ) , , , . , ( , GAAP , , ). , , : , , GAAP, . , :


. , , , . , , , ( ).

22. 5 0 7 22.3. GAAP

, , , , , 2.

GAAP, , . GAAP , , . , , , , 3. 22.3 GAAP. ( ), , . , , . GAAP () , ,


2

American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. Proposed Audit and Accounting Guide Life and Health Insurance Entities. New York, 1998. .: S. Mooney and L. Cohen. Basic Concepts of Accounting and Taxation of Property/ Casualty Insurance Companies. 4th ed. Insurance Information Institute. Addison Shuster, 1995. P. 85.

5 0 8 .

. GAAP . ; , , . , . GAAP, , . : . , . , GAAP, , ( ), . , . , , , , . , (Valuation of Securities Manual). GAAP, . , , , ( GAAP). 22.4 . ( ), ( ). , ( ) , . , , . ,


22. 5 0 9 22.4.

, , . , , GAAP, , ( ). 22.5 . . - ( , ). . GAAP, . , . . , 900 . 1000 ., , , 920 . (. . 100 . ). GAAP , . -

5 1 0 . 22.5. GAAP ( .)

. , , . , . , . , ,

22.

51

. , GAAP. , 3 . 5 . GAAP (. . 22.5). 2 . ( 2 . ). 2 . , . GAAP . 130 ., GAAP 117 . : (35 .) GAAP. GAAP, 35 . ( ) 7 . . 100 . 20 . . 1999 . GAAP 27 . , . . ( GAAP ), . ( 900 . 800 . GAAP), (45 40 .). , . GAAP , , ( , , ). ! (. . 22.6). , . , , 22.6, . , 30 ., 9,8 . (

5 1 2 .
22.6. ( .)

). 5 ., 25 ., 25 ., 25 . : 25 . , . : TransAmerica , . -, ( ), . , , , . , . , , : . TransAmerica (. . 22.1 22.2). 22.7 , 22.8 . -

513

514

515

5 1 6 .

3,2 . 1989 . 1,8 1998 ., ( ) 47 29% . : 5,6 4,9 . 332 707 . ( ) ( 10,7% ). TransAmerica, 19992008 . (. . 22.922.12). 2,6% . , , (1999 .) 12%, 8% 2008 . , , . , , , . , , 2002 . 22.11, , 449 ., 172 . , 277 ., , , , . , , , . TransAmerica ( 1999 .) 0,78. 10- (rf) 5,1% (r) 5,5%, (ks) 9,4%:

517

518

519

520

521

5 2 2 .

, (. . ) . TransAmerica 2008 . . (CV) :

N1 ( = 485 .); g ( 0%); r , ( 12%); ks (= 9,4%).

, TransAmerica:

, 10 , (2297 .). 22.13 TransAmerica, : ( ). , . , .

22. 22.13. : TransAmerica ( , ,

523

( ). , , , ( ), , . . , . , . , . , : , ( ). . -

5 2 4 .

, . , , 1050 . - . , , . , , , . , , . , . . 1982 . . 50 . . , , 50 . . : , . , , , . : . , , , , , , . , , , . . . 5: , , .

22. 5 2 5

22.1. X ( , %)

, : , -. 798 . 22.1 X . , ( 7%). 22.2, 602 . , , , , X , 7% 30%. , , 13%, , , , 44 .

5 2 6 .

22.2.

, , . . , : , . : , , . - . , : , -

22. 5 2 7

. , , . . , ( , ), . , ( GAAP, , , ). TransAmerica. , , .

8 (APV) Hershey Foods , , . ( ) , , . , , (WACC) . , , , . , , . - , . 528

5 2 9

. , . (NOPLAT) 100 . (. . ). (FCF) 100 . (ku) 10%, (Vu) 1000 .:

, () 400 ., (kb) 7%, (T) 40%. , . , (kb = 7%), (ku = 10%). ( .) , (Vtb) 160 .:

, , 1160 . (1000 .) (160 .). (S) 760 . (1160 .) (400 .). , WACC 8,621%:

530

WACC :

( 1)

, , , , , , : 112 ., 1112 ., 712 . , WACC 8,993%. WACC :

( 2)

531

k WACC, , , 1 . 1. , . (g) k WACC :

, , , k WACC :

PVT .

, 3, 4, ku WACC. 2, ku, k WACC:

, . . , 2 . , . , ( , ).
1

F. Modigliani and M. Miller. The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance, and the Theory of Investment // American Economic Review. 1958. June. P. 261297.

181 9

532

1 . WACC k

2.

ks k

, . . , . , , .

5 3 3 . L U

: , , , (. . ). , , , 1 . . , , , , , . . , / , ( , ) . , ( ) , , . , , . , , 2.
2

.: I. Inselbag and H. Kaufold. Two DCF Approaches for Valuing Companies under Alternative Financing Strategies (and How to Choose Between Them) // Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Vol. 10. 1. 1997. Spring. P. 114122; R. Brealey and S. Myers. Principles of Corporate Finance. Chap. 19 [ ., . . .: -, 2004. . 19].


(Agency theory) 15 (Aggressive formula) 318. . (Assets) 154,160,178-179, 181,183,184,186,190,193, 235, 397,404 / (underlying) 445, 447, 454, 456. . [] (external) 495,496,498 (replacement cost) 186,210-211,319 (nonoperating) 159,169,181,184,186,187, 326, 332, 338, 406-407 (current) 184-185, 290. . (options on) 443, 444, 448-451, 468,475. . (revaluation) 186, 210-212, 215, 402,403, 424 (fixed) 186,187,193, 208-210, 291-292, 379, 401-402, 403, 425. . (insurance companies) 505-506,508 (Shares/Stock) 17-18 (twin) 451453,455. . : (repurchase) 46, 98,196, 273, 293, 374, 422, 511 (issue) 196, 273,327,374,422 (equity cash flow). . : ; : , () (common shares/ equity). . (stock options) 1517, 51, 73, 74, 230, 235, 236, 326,443 (preferred). . (market price) 65, 68, 72-74, 96, 99,100-103,104,110, 330, 366-372, 375, 429 / (Equity). . (Shareholders/Equity holders) 17-18,174,187,237 / (other stakeholders) 11-12,15,18, 23 (shareholder value) 12,14-15,16,18,19, 20-23, 26, 29,30,33,105,107,108,115-116, 129,132,137,154, 395, 479. . : , [/] (Opportunity cost of capital) 5 0 - 5 1 , 64, 66, 68,106,157-158, 159,166, 228, 230, 231, 236, 238-259, 261, 262, 266, 341, 352, 388, 469, 473, 475, 481, 491,496-497,512,522. . ; (Alternative minimum tax) 189 (Amortization/ Depreciation) 160-161,192-193, 208, 209, 274-275, 401, 402, 420, 422,479,511

534

() [ ] (tangible assets depreciation) 187, 202, 290, 292, 402 [ ] (intangible assets amortization) 97-98,187, 192, 202, 398, 401 , (Arbitrage pricing model, ). . MA (Rainbow option) 450-451,467-468, 475. . (Balance sheet) 182,183-184, 195, 213, 214,273, 274, 278, 289, 293, 295, 329,355-356, 379, 404, 422, 479-480, 481, 483-484, 486, 488, 495, 502, 503, 517 (Banks) 154, 476-500 (spread model) 479, 480482. . : (business units structure) 477, 483-484, 490-500 (Bankruptcy) 237, 239, 494,502 (costs) 393,394 / (Entry/exit barriers) 197, 267-268, 278, 334 (Expectations treadmill) 72-78, 86. . (Risk-free interest rate) 244-246, 252, 261, 262, 277, 350, 360, 414, 416, 433, 434-436, 439, 447, 531 , (Beta) 244, 245, 246, 254-256, 346-348, 360, 411, 414-415, 437-438, 446. . (unlevered) 261-262,347-349,533 () (levered) 346, 347-348, 533

535 261,

-/ (Business unit) 115119, 120-125,128,129,154-155,176, 337, 338-349, 351-352, 376 (of bank) 477, 483-484, 490-500 (cash flow) 339-341, 344, 345,349, 351 (cost of capital) 338, 345-346, 348,496, 498, 499 (of multinational company). . (tax rate) 338, 344 345, 346 (value) 154155, 351-352 (capital structure) 338, 344, 345-346, 495, 498 - (Business plans) 36-37, 47 - (Corporate portfolio of businesses). . - - (Business system). . - (Accounting) (tax) 189,404 (inventory) 9597 (leases) 235 (differences in foreign regulations/ standards) 95, 376, 394, 395, 3 9 6 407,424-425 (generally accepted accounting principles, GAAP). CM. GAAP (expensed investments) 207, 355

536

(Restructuring hexagon) 3 0 - 3 1 , 49, 53,112. . / (Flexibility) 176, 442-443, 445-447, 448, 450, 453-455, 458-460, 463, 466, 468, 475. . ; (Hyperinflation) 425 (Globalization) 222, 283-284, 286, 411, 417, 432-433, 437-438 (Forecast horizon) 158, 264, 265-266, 283, 286, 301, 307-309, 325 (Horizons of growth) 112-113

() / (mergers/ acquisitions) 97-98,144 (insurance companies) 501512 (Stocks) 274 (Currency). . / ; ; : (Warrant) 230, 235, 236, 443 , (GDP, Gross Domestic Product) 358, 430, 431 (per capita) 21-22 / [ ] (Supplier/Customer bargaining power) 267, 268269, 278, 309 (Imputation tax system) 407-410 (Internal rate of return, IRK) 252 (Intrinsic value). . / (Hostile takeover) 13-14, 43,132,144. . / (Term structure of interest rates) 252, 275, 387, 474, 482, 486 (Share repurchase) 46, 98, 196, 273, 293, 374, 422, 511 [] (Leveraged buyout, LBO) 1315, 16,41,42,135,143,154,173 (Share issue) 196, 273, 327, 374, 422 (Deposit insurance) 493-495

(Double taxation) 185, 407-408 (Double counting) 351-352 (Accounts receivable/Receivables) 184,290, 379, 390, 392, 419, 422, 424-425 (Goodwill) 9799, 187,194, 202, 213, 214, 293-294, 398,401-402 (Money rate) 481, 491-493, 496-498, 499 (Cash) 184185, 290, 292, 332, 352, 379, 422. . (Cash flow) 34, 68, 80-83, 84, 91, 96-97,103,104, 153,159-166, 205, 209, 215, 301, 352, 356, 367, 373, 390, 392-393, 408, 410, 426, 427-428, 430-432, 433, 440, 489, 513, 531, 533. . :

5 3 7 () - (of business unit) 338-341,344, 345, 349, 351 (gross) 160-161,192,194, 201, 303, 315 (discount). . (equity) 154,174, 192,407, 410,478-480, 486, 490, 500, 505,508-512, 527. . : , vs. (pre-tax vs. after-tax) 96,176, 177-178 (of foreign subsidiary) 384387 (map) 33 (nonoperating) 194,195, 215 vs. (nominal vs. real) 176,177, 4 1 9 423,433 (free). . (Tree) (return) 196197, 273 (decision) 444, 451, 452-453,454,458-460, 463,468 (event) 456458, 462463 (value drivers) 119 / [] (Derivatives) 390-391 / (Default) 240-241, 257, 435, 436, 494, 496, 497 (Diversification) 111,433,450 (Dividend policy) 175,407,410,490,511 (Dividends) 46,100, 176,196,199, 200, 201, 207, 233, 237, 243, 252, 273, 290, 292-293, 351-352, 379, 382, 407, 408, 410, 422, 479-480, 486, 490, 516. . ; : ; (taxation). . ; (Discount cash flow, DCF) 35,51, 63-64, 69, 7 0 - 7 1 , 78, 84, 88, 90, 94,121,160,163,176-179,190, 228, 253, 302, 316-318, 323-324, 355, 364, 367-368, 388-389, 420, 427, 429-432, 445,455,526. . , (enterprise model) 79,81-82,96, 104,153,154-166,169,171-173, 175,177, 229,303-306, 331,356, 364,367, 369,375, 395,416, 418, 442,461,478, 505, 528-529 , (equity model) 154,174-176, 252,478-480, 505, 508, 522, 528. . : (formulas) 178179 (Variance) 390, 392, 394, 445,463 (Debt) 155,157,176,184, 186,187,195, 200, 203, 204, 230, 235, 238-243, 261, 290, 294, 326, 327, 334, 345, 349, 351, 422, 508, 529, 531, 533. . / ; ; (non-interest-bearing) 230 (foreign currency) 234, 238, 242-243 (unscheduled) 490 (long-term) 185,187, 233, 261

538

(Yield to maturity) 229,233,239-242, 257, 275-277, 435-437, 438-439, 471, 473 vs. (expected vs. promised) 239-241,497-498 (Replicating portfolio) 451453, 455, 459-460, 463, 472. . :

() (investment grade) 239 (convertible). . ; : (short-term) 185, 187,195, 233, 261, 290 (tax benefits) 170-171, 201, 228, 528. . : (below investment grade) 239-241,434 (callable). . ; : (discount rate). . : (value) 154155, 159,170,171, 229, 326, 332, 350,478, 529 (subsidized) 230,238,241-242 / (Debt load/Financial leverage) 46,102-103,170, 227, 228, 254, 262, 349, 438,439, 498, 529 / (Debt-type financing) 45-46,170, 201, 232, 233-235, 238-243, 290. . (Debt). . ; ; [ ]/ [ ] (Revenues) 196,224, 266, 273, 274, 287, 291, 294, 295, 296, 334, 357, 358, 360, 362, 364,422, 423 (Return) 33, 66,110, 158, 229, 243, 246-251, 252, 255-258, 364, 411-414, 435-436, 438. . ; ; (risk-free) 244246

/ (Debt/Loan/ Borrowing). . ; / ; / (Stakeholders) 11 -12,15,18, 23 (Employment) 15, 23, 24 (Inventories) 184, 290, 379, 404, 419, 422, 425 (Foreign subsidiaries) 376394. . ; - (Foreign tax credit) 381-382,383 [] (Replacement cost) 186, 210-211, 319 (Cost of capital) 38,61-62,63-64,68,71,84, 92,95,117,137,154,160,163, 164,165,167,180,184,190, 194,198, 202, 203, 204, 212, 227, 228-263, 266, 275, 306, 309, 315, 317-318, 320, 327, 330, 401,402, 410, 423, 430, 443, 444, 446, 451, 453, 474, 478,496. . ; ; - (of business unit) 338, 345-346, 348,496, 498, 499 (multinational) 376,377,395,411-416,418, 432-440

5 3 9 () (of debt) 171,203, 230, 239-243, 261, 349, 350, 433, 438-440, 493, 528-529,531, 533 (industry-specific global) 429, 431, 433,438 (for callable convertible debt) 473-475 (for preferred stock) 230, 237,243 (of equity) 86,154, 174-175, 243-259, 262, 348-349, 360,415,433, 434-438,439, 478, 479,486, 491, 496,498,499, 500, 505, 509, 512, 516, 527 (unlevered) 170-171,173, 228, 350, 440, 498, 528-530, 533 (levered) 173,174, 228, 350, 528 (weighted average, WACC). . ; WACC / (Customer acquisition costs) 355-356, 362-363, 506, 507,511 (Excess marketable securities) 155,184-185,194, 200, 290, 326, 327, 332, 351-352, 422, 490. . // (Costs/Expenses/Expenditures). . ; : ; ; ; / ; /; : ; /; (Volatility) 330, 354, 361,366-368,371,375,390, 393, 394, 433, 441, 447, 448, 463,474,491 (Invested capital) 51,61,68,74,80-82, 160,166-169,183-187,189,190, 192,196, 202, 203,204, 205, 206, 207,208, 212, 213, 216, 294, 295, 306-307, 324, 325, 332, 397, 398, 401,402,404 (return on). . : / ; ROIC (Investment). . ; / ; ; (gross) 160161,192, 194,201 (nonoperating) 183,273, 326 (net) 80,160-161,192,201, 305,511 (Investment income) 509. . (Index) , (consumer price, CPI) 257 , (industrial production, IPI) 257-258 (Integration) 138 139, 140,144,145-147,149,150, 222-223, 286, 290, 300, 344. . / (Inflation) 83,177, 210, 212, 229, 246, 257-258, 275-277, 291, 314, 318, 358, 379, 388, 402, 418, 419-425, 427, 429, 430-431, 433,435-436,438-439

540

(Dot.coms) 354-365 (Convertible securities) 230, 235, 236, 243, 443-444, 469, 472 (Conglomerate) 338, 343 - (Competitive business system) 222, 267, 270-271, 283 (Competitive advantage) 179,198, 266-267, 270-272 [] (Consolidation [of accounts]) 398, 404, 405 - (Corporate portfolio of businesses) 35-37,107,110-115. . - (Corporate headquarters) 111,122-123,124, 337-338, 341, 345 (benefits) 340,341-344, 345, 346, 351 (costs) 154, 338, 341-343 350, 351 (discount rate) 338, 350 (Correlation) 91, 94, 253, 344, 346,392, 451, 455. . R2 (Coefficient/Ratio) (dividend payout) 176, 201,410 / (debt/equity ratio) 239, 347, 533 / (debt/total investor funds) 200 / (debt/total capital ratio) 227, 345 (correlation coefficient) 91. . 2 / (&/ revenues ratio) 291, 296, 419-420 (interest coverage). .

{) / (foreign exchange rate) 385-386, 418, 425427, 430. . ; - , (Executive vice president for corporate strategy and finance, EVP) 5 5 - 5 8 (job description) 5658 [] (Capitalizing [expenses]) 207-208, 342, 355-356, 398, 508 (Capital intensity) 38, 238 / (Capital expenditures/Capital spending) 52,100-102,160,193, 208-210, 274, 291, 300, 327, 374, 402, 420, 425. . (Capital leases) 187,195, 203 (Quasi-equity) 184,186-187, 207, 217, 326. . (Key value drivers) 38,107,109,164, 180, 264, 278, 295, 322. . ; (CoyneSubramaniam model) 267,271-272 , (Call option) 443, 444, 445, 446, 448, 449-450. . (Enterprise model). . : ,

() , (slope of regression) 93,94 / (market/book value ratio) 32,41, 90, 92-94, 225-226, 237, 262, 294, 320,395-396 / [] (market-to-capital ratio) 7478. . ; MVA (hedging ratio) 390, 392,394 /, / (price/earnings, /, ratio) 41, 80, 82, 98, 237, 244, 302,319-320,356 , (KPI, key performance indicators) 115-119,123,126 (Bond/Credit rating) 45, 233, 261, 439, 493, 502. . (Credit risk) 428, 432, 435-437,439, 497-498, 499, 500 (Debt capacity) 342,344,345-346 (Accounts payable/Payables) 185, 230, 290, 379, 390, 392, 419,422, 424-425 (Creditworthiness/ Credit health) 181,198-201, 227 (Knockout criteria) 141,150. . / (Coupon rate) 239, 240, 241, 474, 475 (Liquidation value) 319,448-449, 460 [/ ] (Liquidation/ Disposition) 41, 42,143 (Liquidity) 181, 198-201 (LIFO) 95-97, 379

541

(Leases) 230, 233, 234-235, 239, 243 (capital) 187,195, 203, 235 (operating) 203, 235

/ [] (Financial incentive/ Compensation) 51-52,71,105, 108,125-128,129 , (, arbitrage pricing model) 234, 255, 256-259 (International Accounting Standards, IAS) 396. . IAS / (Hurdle rate of return) 52 / (Minority interest) 186, 207, 230, 232, 236-237, 262, 326, 332, 406 (Multinational companies) 376-377, 380-381, 383-384, 394 (Multibusiness companies) 111,154-155,337-353 , (CAMP, capital assets pricing model) 243, 244-256, 258-259, 262, 411, 414-416, 432-433, 434, 446, 516 (Model) , (arbitrage pricing model, ). .

542

(Earnings multiple model) 7884 (Junk bonds) 238,240, 497 H (Overhead) 40, 42,155, 332, 340-341, 500. . : : / (Taxes/ Taxation) 290, 313, 340, 419, 474. . : - (business-units) 338, 344-345, 346 (dividends). . ; / (mergers/acquisitions) 143144 (cross-country) 344, 345, 376,378, 380-384, 395, 407-411, 424, 425. . (income) 187189, 203, 207, 262, 381-383,404,407, 408, 422 (deffered). . / (Tax shields/shelters) 343-345, 346, 524 (depreciation) 420 (interest) 158,171 172, 188, 350, 440,479, 529-533 (Tax credit) (foreign) 381382, 383 (dividend) 407410. . (Uncertainty) 316, 328, 344, 354, 356, 359, 364-365, 372, 375, 417, 427, 432, 445, 447, 448, 450-451, 456, 462-463, 467, 468, 475, 533. .

() (discount cash flow, DCF) (enterprise). . : , (equity). . : , - (Monte Carlo). . - (earnings multiple). . (industry structure). . , (capital assets pricing model, CAMP). . (option-pricing). . : (adjusted present value). . (equity). . : , (spread). . : (StructureConductPerformance). . , (economic profit). . : , , / (Modigliani Miller, MM, propositions/formula) 170,178-179,531-532 - (Monte Carlo simulation model) 359, 463

(Retained earnings) 186,204,379-380, 407, 490 / (Unfunded pension liabilities/plans) 204, 207, 216, 262, 398 , - (R&D, research and development) 70, 88,100-101, 107, 450 (Dividend yield) 86, 243, 256 (Investment rate) 161,179,180, 201, 304, 314 (Customer churn rate) 362363 (Profits margin) 38, 69,161,165,178,181, 196-197, 226, 268, 278, 295-296, 303, 309, 313, 327, 329, 334,357, 358, 360, 362, 396, 423, 426,427

543

(Bonds) 230, 232, 234, 238, 241-242, 435-437, 452-453, 508511. . (convertible) 236, 469-475. . (junk) 238, 240, 497 (callable) 469475. . (government) 241,245-246, 275-277, 428, 434-436, 439 (rating) 233, 239-241, 434, 436-437, 439. . / (Foreign exchange rate) 379, 404, 414 (inflation) 385386, 418,425-427, 430. . ;

/ () (spot) 242, 377,379, 385-387, 388, 394 (forward) 242, 377, 385, 387 (Capital turnover) 181,196-197, 226, 266, 274, 300,303, 329, 334, 358 (Working capital) 38,156,160,166,183, 185,193, 209, 273, 290-291, 315, 318, 358, 419-420, 422. . : [/ ] (Spin-off) 41-42,98, 143, 345, 353 (Total returns to shareholders, TRS) 32,68,69,70,71,72-74, 86, 90, 91,106, 224. . TRS (Generally accepted accounting principles). . GAAP (Common shares/equity) 154-155,186,196, 201, 230, 231, 232, 237, 244, 262, 379, 443, 469-470, 473, 474, 486. . (Liabilities) 184,186,

195, 235, 263, 326, 379, 397, 404,


479. . (non-interest-bearing) 183,184,185,186,190,193, 230 (foreign currency obligations) 234, 242-243 (nonoperating) 159 (options on) 443444, 469-475 (retirement-related) 203-204, 216, 262,290,294, 398, 506 (insurance companies) 502,505506, 508,511 (current) 184,185, 290

544

() (real) 70, 442,444-448, 450, 453,458, 468 (compound) 450, 465 468,475 (exercise/striking price) 236,443,445, 447, 448-450 (Option value) 71, 445-447, 454. . ; (Organizational design/ structure) 107,113-115,128 (Fixed assets/ Property, plant and equipment, PP&E) 156,166, 209, 235, 273, 274, 318, 358, 402, 404, 422, 425. . : (net) 160,183,184,193, 274-275, 291-292, 402,419,422 (Callable securities) 230. . : (Deferred taxes) 184,187,189, 217, 262, 326, 402, 404, 506, 511 (Industrial structure) 197,217-223, 267-269, 271-272 (Income statement) 79,182,187, 193, 213, 273, 278, 292, 295, 329, 355-356, 379-380, 404, 422,479, 481, 483-484, 486-487, 502, 504, 505, 518 [ ] (Divestiture) 29, 31,130,131, 143, 328. . (Scope) 450 , (Capital assets pricing model, CAMP). . (Performance scorecard) 123-125

(Market expectations) 65-67,68,73-78, 86-87,90,91,109,191 (Operating income/profit) 62, 80,156, 160-163,165,167,187, 364, 373, 390, 392, 394, 511, 533. . : ; ; NOPLAT / (Operating costs/expenses) 70, 203, 204, 230, 235, 267, 270, 273, 287, 290, 291, 313, 350, 422, 511 (Operating leases) 203, 235 (Option) 236, 239, 390, 443 (American) 448450, 458 (rainbow) 450451, 467-468, 475 (European) 448 (call) 443, 444,445, 446,448, 449-450 (option-pricing model) 176, 234, 236, 243, 442-443,444-448,451, 453-454,455, 460-463,464 (stock) 15-17,51,73,74, 230, 235, 236, 326, 443 (to defer) 445, 447, 449, 451-455,475 (switching) 450, 464-465,475 (abandonment) 448-449,460, 461 / (to extend/shorten) 449450 / (to expand/contract) 449,458-460, 461, 475 (asset) 443,444, 448-451,468, 475 (liability) 443-444,469-475 / (to scope up/scope down) 450 (put) 443, 448-450, 494

545

, (Purchasing power parity, ) 425-427,430 (Interest-rate parity) 242, 385-387 (Pension systems) 19-20 (Funded pension plan/Pension reserve) 203, 206, 262, 398, 400. . : ; / (Foreign currency translation) 195, 215, 376, 377, 378-380, 388, 394, 404,405 (temporal method) 379-380, 404, 405 - (spot-rate method) 385 (current method) 379, 380, 404,405 (forward-rate method) 385 [] (Revaluation) 186, 210-212, 215, 402, 403, 424 (Growth opportunities) 30, 31, 44-45, 47, 117,178-179,286 (Flows) 274 (Capital charge) 167,190 (Aquisition/Takeover). . ; / / (Intrinsic value) 65, 66, 68, 70-71,88,136 (Interest coverage) 199-200, 227, 239, 345, 394 (Political risks) 376, 388, 427 (Porter model) 267-269, 271

(Customer value) 266,270,361-364 (Government grants) 215, 263 (Marginal tax rate) 188-189,194,195, 216, 229, 290, 347, 350, 382, 440 (Risk premium). . ; ; ; (Earnings/Income/Profit). . / (accounting/ reported) 78-82, 95-98,100,187 / , / , , (earnings before interest and taxes/interest, taxes, and amortization/interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, EBIT/EBITA/EBITDA) 98,116, 187-188, 200, 208, 420. . EBIT/EBITA/EBITDA (model) 480-482, 486. . : (per share, EPS) 35, 52, 69, 89, 91,102-103, 367-370. . EPS (tax) 187-189, 203, 207, 262, 381-383,404, 407, 408,422 (mismatch) 477,482-485, 499, 506 (retained). . / (operating). . (forecast). . (net). . (economic). .

546

() (strategic perspective) 264, 266-277, 283-285 (financial) 272277, 283, 286-300, 358, 516 (Continuing value, CV) 158-159, 237, 253, 265, 283, 301-324, 419, 423, 429. . CV (discount cash flow model) 303-306,311 (economic profit model) 306307, 311-312,486,512,522 (formulas) 303-304, 306, 316-318,320-322,423 (Duration) 435, 491-492, 496-498, 506 [ ] (Productivity) 21-23, 24, 267, 270 [] (Derivatives). . / (Winner's curse) 138 (Interest rate) 159, 227, 239, 428, 438, 448, 482-485,491-493,499. . ; ; : (risk-free) 244246, 252, 261, 262, 277, 350,360, 416, 433,434-436, 439,447, 531 vs. (nominal vs. real) 177, 275,435 (option features) 233-234,239 (equivalent internal) 242243, 386-387

(Present value, PV) 63-64,65,68,156,158, 159,162,166-168,184-185, 194, 228, 233, 235, 237, 261, 305, 306, 325, 326, 352, 358, 360, 367, 377, 385, 388, 394, 443, 448, 451, 452, 455, 457,459-460, 461, 486, 491, 522, 530-531. . ; PV (adjusted). . (net). . ; NPV (Preferred stock) 154-155,186, 196,199, 230, 232, 233, 235, 237, 239, 243,486 (convertible). . (Capital gains) 509-511,524 (Due diligence) 136,137-138 (Forecast) 213, 264-300, 312,329 / (horizon/period) 158, 264, 265-266,283, 286, 301, 307-309, 325 (cash flow) 80,159-160,177, 273, 301, 315, 344,359, 396, 418, 419-423, 429, 430-432, 485,486,499, 512, 516 (in foreign currency) 377, 384-387, 394 (for high-growth companies) 291, 357-361,365 (long-term foreign exchange rates) 385-387,394 (scenarios) 265, 277-278, 286, 332-334, 358-361, 430-432 (earnings). .

/ (Interest expense) 157,170,187, 188,195,199, 200, 201, 203, 204, 207, 227, 233, 273, 290, 326, 422, 528529. . : (Interest income) 187,188,194,273 (Pooling of interests) 9799. . / , (Put option) 443, 448-450, 494. . (Emerging markets) 286, 287, 417-441 (cost of capital) 418,432-440 (inflation) 418-425, 427 (taxes) 424,425 (risk premium) 428-430,432,434,435-439 (Perceptions gap) 31 (Allocation/Sharing) (costs) 341, 342,490, 498, 500. . (equity) 495, 498 (Breakup) 29, 41. . ; (Expensed investments) 207-208, 355-356 (Real option) 70, 442, 444-448,450, 453, 458, 468. . : (Regression) 93, 94, 392, 394, 437-438 (multiple) 348349 / (Provisions/ Reserves) 181,186, 204-207, 326, 397-398, 399, 424, 502, 505-506, 508, 511. . :

547

/ () [] (at the Federal Reserve) 481 (unearned premium) 506 (revaluation) 214-215,402 / (for credit losses) 479, 506 (restructuring) 206 (for income taxes) 189, 408. . (on-going) 206207, 217, 262 (policy) 508 , / (Historical performance analysis/measurement) 29-35, 50-51,116,120,123-125, 126,180-227, 377, 378-384, 394, 512-516 / (Bond rating) 233, 239-241, 434, 436-437, 439. . (Return on) (assets, ROA) 181,189-190 / (invested capital/ investments, ROIC) 33, 34, 38, 50-51, 61-62, 68, 69, 70, 71, 81, 82-83, 84-87,88,90, 91, 92-95, 109,116,117,134,137,160-166, 167,177,179,180-181,186, 189-191,196-197, 209, 225,264, 265, 277, 278, 279-281, 303-305, 306, 309-310, 312-314, 315-316, 317-318,319,320,323,327, 329,333, 334, 373, 419, 423, 512. . : ; CFROI; ROIC (equity, ROE) 189, 252, 516, 522

548

(Market share) 70, 88, 198, 221, 269-270, 285, 287, 296, 300,328, 333 (Market capitalization) 7476 (Market risk premium) 244, 246-248, 249-254, 255, 258, 261, 262, 360, 388, 411-416, 436, 438 (Market expectations). . (Marketable securities). . ;

(Goodwill). . / (Restructuring) 15, 21, 26, 3 0 - 3 1 , 4 6 - 4 8 , 4 9 - 5 0 , 59, 112-113,143, 352-353, 417, 476 (Risk) 110,154,159,176,184, 194, 237, 239, 314, 323, 387, 418, 531, 533. . ; (currency) 242, 388, 389-390 / (default) 240-241, 257, 435,436, 496-497 (diversifiable) 428, 433, 497 (credit) 428, 432, 435-437,439,497-498, 499, 500 (in emerging markets) 417,427432 (option) 453455, 463,473 (political) 376,388,427 (interest rate) 493,497, 498,499, 500 (systematic) 229, 244, 254, 256-258, 347,437,496 (country) 418,427430, 432, 433,435-437, 439 (sovereign) 435436 [ ] (managing) 499, 500 (Growth) 38,51,68,70,71, 84-87, 92-94, 109,167, 191, 198, 220, 225, 244, 266, 277, 278, 287, 295, 315, 317, 327, 333, 355-357, 529, 531-532. . ; ; (Market for corporate control) 12,13-15,58,59,132,150 (Market value added, MVA) 24,70, 74-78, 224-225. . MVA

(Free cash flow, FCF) 33, 85, 87, 155,156-157,159-166,167,169, 170,171,181,184,192-196, 201, 213, 217, 228, 229, 230, 232, 237, 253, 273, 278, 295, 296, 304-305, 311-312, 315, 322, 325-236, 331, 367-368, 388-389, 394, 396,398, 402, 410, 422, 423, 442, 478-480, 486, 490, 505, 508-512, 516, 522, 527, 529. . FCF (Swap) 234, 239 (Customer segmentation analysis) 267,269-270 / (Synergies) 34, 53,134,135,136, 137,139,142-143,149,150, 344. . / (Systematic risk) 229, 244, 254, 256-258, 347, 437, 496 (Adjusted present value, APV, model) 154,169-174,175,228,231, 528-553

(Adjusted equity) 186,187 / (Merger/Acquisition, M&A) 13-15, 53-54,130-150, 2 1 3 214, 223, 236, 282, 284-285, 287, 291, 294, 328, 333-334, 374, 398, 417, 450, 466. . ; ; / / (/ ratio) 98, 302, 320 vs. (purchasing vs. pooling of interests) 9799 (reasons for failure) 136139 (due diligence) 136,137-138 ex post (ex post results) 134-136 ex ante (ex ante market reactions) 132134 (premium over price) 132,134,136,139,142,150, 202, 401. . (steps in successful programs) 139147 (Compound option) 450, 465-468, 475. . / (Hybrid/ Equity-linked financing) 232, 235-236, 469. . (Equity) 157,184,186,196, 206, 207, 214, 231-232, 238, 273, 327, 379, 398, 402, 404, 422, 424-425, 522-523 (cost of). . : (quasi). . (model). . : ,

549

() [ ] (allocation [to business units]) 495,498 (return on). . : , (adjusted). . (value) 154155,159, 170,171, 203, 232,237, 252, 325-327, 331-333,351, 444, 472-473, 478, 479, 486, 493, 529-530 (financing) 170, 243-259. . ; ; ; ; , (Joint venture, JV) 130,147-150, 417 (Total investor funds) 184,186, 187,195, 200 [] (Consensus earnings forecasts) 369370 -, (Spot foreign exchange rate) 242, 377, 379, 385-387, 388, 394 (Spread) 92-94,165,190, 226, 266 (bank) 479, 480-482, 483, 485,499 (Weighted average cost of capital, WACC) 94,157-158,159, 162-166,170-171,179,190,192, 203, 228, 229-231, 236, 260, 263, 312,314, 318, 325, 334, 346, 349, 387, 394,411, 444, 463, 469, 478. . WACC (Loan portfolio) 477, 482, 485, 496-498, 500

550

() (with internal improvements) 30,31,37-41,47 (shareholder value) 12,14-15,16,18,19,20-23, 26, 29, 30, 33,105,107,108, 115-116,129,132,180,395, 479,492-493 (of debt). . : (as is) 30, 31, 35-37 (liquidation). . (on liabilities side of balance sheet) 479, 505 (option). . / (of operations) 154-155,156-159,169, 171,325,331-332,406 / (intrinsic) 65, 66, 68, 70-71, 88,136 (scenarios) 277278, 327, 328-329,333, 359-361, 371, 431-432,441 (potential) 30, 31, 37-46 (to customer). . (present). . (continuing). . / (market/book). . : / (equity). . : (current) 30, 3134 (value management) 25-26, 48-59,106-107, 337, 417, 522-527

(Discount rate) 66, 83,154,157,159, 162,168,174-176,178,192, 228, 231, 233, 235, 252, 326, 332, 349, 350, 408, 418, 427-428, 433,440, 451, 453, 454, 463, 528-529, 531, 533. . ; (in foreign currency) 385,387-388 vs. (nominal vs. real) 176,177, 419 (Value creation mindset) 106-110 (Value). . ; ; ; - (of business unit) 154-155,351-252 (equity discount cash flow model). . : , (enterprise discount cash flow model). . : , (adjusted present value, APV, model). . (equity model). . : , (economic profit model). . : (with external improvements) 30,41-44

() (of financial engineering) 30,31, 45-46,143 (Country risks) 418,427-430,432,433, 435-437,439 [] (Strategic perspective) 264,266277, 283-285 (Strategic buyer) 34,41,43-44 (Strategy) 110111, 121-125,131, 222, 283-284, 300, 334, 525-527 / (Deposit insurance) 493495 (Insurance companies) 154,448,501-527 (Capital structure) 46,170-173,174-175, 192, 229, 231, 232-238, 254, 260, 314, 323, 334, 349, 429, 431, 433, 434, 440, 491, 496, 508 - (of business unit) 338, 344, 345-346, 388, 495,498 / (target). . , (StructureConductPerformance model) 269 (Business unit structure). . - (Sovereign risks) 435-436 / (Convergence formula) 317. . [ ] (Scenarios) 162-163,199, 265, 277-278, 283, 286, 300, 316, 327, 328-329, 332-334, 358-364, 371, 373, 375, 418, 427, 430-432, 440

551

(Growth rate) 82-83, 88, 90, 92-94, 112,158,160,161-166, 178,180-181, 226, 264, 265, 279-282, 294, 296, 301, 303-305, 312-314, 316, 320, 321, 322, 334, 358, 394, 395-396, 419, 423, 512,' 522, 531. . /- (Substitute products) 267268, 340 / (Transfer prices/ Transfer pricing) 340-341, 344, 345, 350, 376, 378, 382-384, 388, 389,394 (at banks) 477, 490-491, 496, 499. .

(Slop of regression) 93,94 / (Managing value/Value management/Value-based management) 25-26,48-59, 106-107, 337, 417, 522-527 - (business units) 120-125,128,129 - (portfolio of businesses) 107,110-115 (communications) 54 (key value drivers) 107,115-120 / [] (financial incentive/ compensation) 5152,108,125 128,129 (organizational design/structure) 107,113-115,128,523 (performance measurement) 5051,123125

552

(Stock market index) 412-413 (Forward contract) 390, 392, 394 , (Forward foreign exchange rate) 242, 377, 385,387

/ () (planning) 49-50,129 (value creation mindset) 106110 (strategy) 110111, 121-125,525-527 (targets) 50-51,107,108-110 (Value drivers) 50, 52, 70, 71, 87-88, 95, 115-120,121,124,128,129, 159-166,167, 213-217, 278, 279, 303, 327, 525-527. . ; (tree) 119 (formula) 303305, 309, 313, 318, 320-321, 323, 423, 522. . (Finacing). . / (debt) 4546, 170,201, 232, 233-235, 238-243, 290 (equity) 170, 243-259. . ; ; ; (hybrid) 232, 235236, 469 (Financial engineering) 30, 31, 45-46,143 (Financing cash flow) 157,194,195, 207, 215,410 (Financial leverage). . / (FIFO) 95-97

X
(Hedging) 376, 389-394, 499, 500 (Herfindahl index) 412,413 (Business unit). . -

(Target capital structure) 231-232, 238, 260, 347, 349, 388, 438. . (Targets) 50, 51, 71, 87, 88,105,107,108-110,116, 120,121-123,126,128,165 [] (Exercise price/Striking price) 236, 443, 445, 447, 448-450 (Premium over acquisition price) 132,134,136,139,142, 150, 202, 401 (Cyclical companies) 265,366375 / (Cyclicality) 83, 198, 366-367, 369, 371, 373-374 /, (/ ratio) 82-83, 98, 319-320, 356. . : / (Net income/ profits) 50, 95,187,189,196, 252, 273, 379-380, 408, 422, 479, 481,490, 492-493, 511,522

5 5 3 () (net operating profits less adjusted taxes, NOPLAT) 160, 179,181,187-189, 303,312, 529. . ; NOPLAT (Net present value, NPV) 159, 185, 326, 356, 440, 442-443, 444, 451, 452, 455, 460, 475, 490, 499, 505. . NPV (Sensitivity analysis) 330, 334, 361, 427 (Economic value edded, EVA) 69 (Economic profit, EP) 51,52,61-63,64, 66,68,69,70,91,123,181, 190-191, 213, 218, 253, 295, 297, 302, 306-307, 321, 323-324, 325-326, 331, 332. . (model) 153 154, 166-169,252,306-307, 311-312,325,522 (Historical extrapolation) 3536, 47,315 (Survivorship bias effect) 246, 251, 256, 282 (Effective tax rate) 290, 345, 349, 382,383,407, 440 (Market efficiency) 90,103-104

CFROI 69, 209-210. . / CV 303-306,317-318,321, 323-324, 423, 522. . D DCF 69. .

69,167,168,190, 321, 522. . EPS 69. . : EVA 69. . F FCF 156,161-162,192,304-305, 312, 322, 451, 453, 529-530. .

EBIT/EBITA/EB1TDA 98, 116, 157, 187-188,192,195,196,199, 200, 203, 208, 224, 227, 290, 295, 404,408, 420. . : /, /, ,

G I IAS 396, 399, 400, 401, 403, 405. . 397,398,502,506-511,527

5 5 4

MVA 74, 75, 224-225. . N NOPLAT 157,158,160-165,167, 179,181,185,186,187-190, 192,194,196, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 207, 209, 211, 212, 213, 215, 294, 295, 303-306, 312-313, 317-318, 321-322, 323, 397, 398, 401, 402, 404, 408, 410, 423, 429, 529. . : NPV 444-447, 452, 454, 455, 457, 465, 466. . PV 451-452, 457-458. . R R2 91, 253. . :

ROIC 34,50,61,69,84-87,88,93, 94,158,160,164,167,177,179, 181,189-190,196-197, 202, 204, 206, 207, 208-210, 211, 212, 214, 225, 226, 266, 273, 279, 281, 296, 303-304, 306, 307, 309-310, 312-314, 316, 317-318, 321-322 395-396,397,401,402,404, 419-420, 423, 427. . i : /

TRS 69, 72, 75, 76, 224. .

W
WACC 61, 94,155,158,165,167, 171-174,179,190,226,228, 229-232, 245, 253, 266, 303-304, 306, 312-314, 316, 317-318, 321, 323, 325, 326, 331, 334, 349, 387, 388, 395, 410, 423, 429, 528-532. .

119071, , . , . 13/2,15- : ./ (095) 411-90-14 (), 958-47-08, 795-39-96 : ./ (095) 952-85-99, 952-83-99, 795-39-95 -: http:\\www.olbuss.ru e-mail: sales@olbuss.ru, olbuss@ropnet.ru

, .

, ,

:
. , . . . , 10.06.2004. 09.06.2005. 70x100 1/16. 1. . . .. 36,0. .-.. 44,7. 1719 . 119071, , . , . 13/2,15- . ". 105005, , . . , 46.