OPERATIONS RESEARCH ASSIGNMENT ON PERT/CPM

QUESTION 7 A project involving the installation of a computer system comprises eight activi ties. The following table lists immediate predecessors and activity times (in we eks). Activity Immediate Predecessor Time A 3 B 6 C A 2 D B,C 5 E D 4 F E 3 G B,C 9 H F,G 3

The network representation for the above is shown below. B 0 6 6 0 6 G 9 H 3 6 9 18 18 15 18 21 21

C 2 6 E 4

3 4 11 11

15 15

Finish D 6 5 6 F 3 Start A 3 0 1 15 15

11 11 18 18

3 4

7.1) What are the critical activities? Ans : The critical activities can be found out as follow. Activity Earliest Start(ES) Earliest Finish(EF) Latest Finish(LF) Slack(LS-ES or LF-EF) A 0 3 1 4 1 B 0 6 0 6 0 C 3 5 4 6 1 D 6 11 6 11 0 E 11 15 11 15 0 F 15 18 15 18 0 G 18 20 19 21 1 H 18 21 18 21 0

Latest Start(LS)

The critical activity is the one where the slack is 0. The slack is calculated a s Slack = (Latest Start Earliest Start) or (Latest Finish Earliest Finish). From the above table, the critical activities are B, D, E, F and H 7.2) What is the expected project completion time? Ans: The expected project completion time is the sum of the completion the critical activities. The critical activities are B, D, E, F and H. TD , TE , TF and TH denote the times for activities B, D, E, F and H ely. Expected Project completion time = TB + TD + TE + TF + TH = 6 + + 3 = 21 weeks times of Let TB , respectiv 5 + 4 + 3

QUESTION 9 Activity I Time 9 A 6 B 6 C 3 D 0 E 3 F 2 G 6 H 3

The network representation can be shown as follows D 9 12 3 12 15 H 6 21 15 15 21

A 9

0 0

9 9

C 6 E 0 I 3 24 Finish Start B 6 F 3 G 2

9 9 15 15 21 21

15 15 15 15 24

0 9 15 16 18 19

6 15 18 19 20 21

The slack can be calculated as follows. Activity Earliest Start(ES) Earliest Finish(EF) Latest Finish(LF) Slack(LS-ES or LF-EF) A 0 9 0 9 0 B 0 6 9 15 9 C 9 15 9 15 0 D 9 12 12 15 3 E 15 15 15 15 0 F 15 18 16 19 1 G 18 20 19 21 1 H 15 21 15 21 0 I 21 24 21 24 0

Latest Start(LS)

9.1) What is the critical path for this network? Ans: The critical activity is the one where the slack is 0. The slack is calcula ted as Slack = (Latest Start Earliest Start) or (Latest Finish Earliest Finish). From the above table, the critical activities are A, C, E, H and I

QUESTION 11 11. Building a backyard swimming pool consists of nine major activities. The act ivities and their immediate predecessors are shown. Develop the project network Activity Immediate Predecessor A B C A,B D A,B E B F C G D H D,F I E,G,H 11.1) Draw the network for the above model. Ans : The network for the above model can be shown as. A C F H

Finish G I

Start D B E

QUESTION 14 Estimates of the optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic times(in days) for t he activities are Activity Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic Mean Variance A 5 6 7 6 0.111111 B 5 12 13 11 1.777778 C 6 8 10 8 0.444444 D 4 10 10 9 1 E 5 6 13 7 1.777778 F 7 7 10 7.5 0.25 G 4 7 10 7 1 C 6 14 8 7 15 The network for the above model can be drawn as below.

A 6 E 7

0 0 14 15

6 6 21 22.5

Finish G 22.5 7 22.5 29.5

29.5

Start D 9 B 11 F 7.5 6 6 0 4 15 15 15 15 11 15 22.5 22.5

14.1) Find the critical path Ans: The critical activities can be found as follows. Activity Earliest Start(ES) Earliest Finish(EF) Latest Finish(LF) Slack(LS-ES or LF-EF) A 0 6 0 6 0 B 0 11 4 15 4 C 6 14 7 15 1 D 6 15 6 15 0 E 14 21 15 22.5 1 F 15 22.5 15 22.5 0 G 22.5 29.5 22.5 29.5 0

Latest Start(LS)

The critical path is the path where in all the activities have a slack time of 0 . Slack is calculated as Slack = (Latest Start (LS) - Earliest Start (ES)) or = (Latest Finish (LF) - Ear liest Finish (EF)). From the table above, the critical path is Start->A->D->F->G->Finish 14.2) How much slack time if any is in activity C? Ans: The slack time in activity C = [Latest Start (LS) for activity C] - [Earlie st Start (LS) for activity C] = 76 = 1 14.3) Determine the expected project completion time and variance. Ans: The expected project completion time and variance can be calculated as foll ows. a) EXPECTED PROJECT COMPLETION TIME The expected project completion time E(Completion) is the sum of the expected pr oject completion times of the activities that constitute the critical path. E(Completion) = E(TA ) + E(TD ) + E(TF )+ E(TG ) Where TA , TD , TF and TG are the expected project completion times of activities A, D,F and G respectively. E(Completion) = 6 + 9 + 7.5 + 7 = 29.5 days. b) VARIANCE The variance for the project is the sum of the variance of the activities that c onstitute the critical path 2 = 2A+ 2D + 2F + 2G where 2, 2A, 2D, 2F and 2G are the variance of the project, activitie A, D, F and G re pec tively 2 = 0.11 + 1+ 0.25 + 1 = 2.36 day 14.4) Find the probability that the project will be completed in 30 or fewer d ay . An : Let X be the random variable denoting the number of day for completion of the project. Let P(X) denote the probability di tribution of X. Let = expected project completion time = 29.5 day Let = Standard deviation = Sqrt(2.36) = 1.54 z = (X - ) / = (30 29.5) / 1.54 = 0.33 Now P(X<=30) = P(z<=0.33) = 0.62